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Today's Message
  

Dublin Festival

Final day

Many of the Cheltenham markets  
Have and will be affected by this
Intend to cover Cheltenham now
Regularly in Future Betting Angles

Now done 38 messages in 41 days
Since Boxing day so need a break
So no message planned tomorrow



6 Previews

Leopardstown dominates 
Could have done a bit more
May not have done it justice

Good Saturday so no anxiety
No need for recovery missions 
So keeping my best bet short
And just playing up our winnings



Today's Best Bet
 
Leopardstown 3.10

STATE MAN 10/11-1/1

Win Bet




Has every chance next month
Of winning the Champion Hurdle
Have strikes against his rivals
Disappointed if he does not win
I've backed him in a mug double
That's described below in U.T.M




Preview Selections  
 
Leopardstown 1.10
£4.25 Each Way Gaoth Chuil 12/1-11/1
£1.50 Win Bet Historique Reconce 7/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Leopardstown 1.40
£6.00 Win Bet Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/4-3/1
£4.00 Win Bet Mighty Potter  5/4-11/8

Leopardstown 2.40
£3.75 Each Way Farceur Du Large11/1-12/1
£1.50 Win Bet Maskada 6/1
£1.00 Win Bet Ciel De Neige 10/1

Leopardstown 3.10
State Man 10/11-1/1
Win Bet

Hereford 4.03
£6.00 Win Bet Ben Bulben 7/1-15/2
£4.00 Place Bet Lily Glitters13/8 +

Leopardstown 4.10
£6.00 Win Bet Hey Johnny 10/1-12/1
£4.00 Win Bet Gaelic Warrior 11/8






Underneath The Message    


I've had a £46.50 Double
 
Leopardstown 3.10 State Man 10/11-1/1

Leopardstown 3.40 Facile Vega 8/15

Pays around 15/8


Good old fashioned mug double
But not bothered if it turns sour
Just fancied a mindless selection
That involves no staking thoughts

Not previewed Facile Vega's race

Think he will win

Irish Point the 3rd favourite
Would be my choice of 2nd


In Betfair's 3 place market

IRISH POINT is 10/11-1/1

To finish in the 1-2-3

Comes from the same race
That Samcro did in 2018
That feels a generous price
In a race with just 7 runners 
And many of them outsiders 
Thats worth a bet around evs


3 Leopardstown handicaps

They are interesting reads

But have not sealed the deal
Or broken through to a horse
That looked best bet material



Leopardstown 1.40
£6.00 Win Bet Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/4-3/1
£4.00 Win Bet Mighty Potter  5/4-11/8

I nearly changed this selection
Gaillard Du Mesnil each way 3/1
Was the alternative option here
Split between them so not sure


Hereford 4.03
£6.00 Win Bet Ben Bulben 7/1-15/2
£4.00 Place Bet Lily Glitters13/8 +

Could have changed this as well

Either could be the selection

Win or each way with a saver
On the other horse around 6/1

Open minded about many races

Don't want a too stressful day

Got a nice casserole in the oven

Doom and gloom podcast to play

And want to spend this afternoon

On some Cheltenham previews

Gold Cup might be the first one

For the next FBA column






Yesterday's Summary 

Quite intense Saturday message
Fairly split 4 winners and 4 losers
For a Saturday I'm happy with that
Calling the bigger decisions right
One call was with the staked bet
Not going for a much harder race
THIRD TIME LUCKI much shorter
But he won very easily in the end
His jockey rode a very clever race
Keeping away from the early pace
These decisions which to stake
Rely on so many random factors
But lets not go there this Sunday
We finished W L W P W L W L L 
Disappointed it faded at the finish
The last 2 bets not good enough
Won the day with a strong start
Winners early serving us nicely
Came out ahead a pleasing day








PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Leopardstown 1.10

3/1 Liberty Dance, 5/1 Risk Belle, 6/1 Historique Reconce
9/1 Innatendue, 12/1 Banntown Girl, 12/1 Gaoth Chuil
12/1 Rioga Choice 14/1 Ballybawn Belter, 14/1 De Lady In Red
16/1 Braganza, 16/1 Elle Perfecta, Global Equity, Marvel Fan
20/1  Popova, 20/1 Mollys Glory, Sainte Dona, Tullypole Annie
25/1 Dollys Destination, Getaway Queen, 25/1 Scenic Look
33/1 Rock On Cassie, 33/1 Still Ciel, 50/1 Delante.
 
Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

14 Past renewals

The biggest stables

Dominate the market

LIBERTY DANCE 

Gordon Elliott favourite 

Main worry carrying 11st 9lbs
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more 
Have a 0-27 record in this race

RISK BELLE from Willie Mullins
She is the only 4yo in this race
Only 1 her age tried to win this
That horse lost as you'd expect
Find it hard to bet a 4yo in this

Opposing a few more 

All 14 previous winners
Ran within the last 63 days
Opposing these failing that

RIOGA CHOICE   
HISTORIQUE RECONCE 
STILL CEIL
DE LADY IN RED

GLOBAL EQUITY too much weight
DOLLYS DESTINY might be too old
ELLA PERFECTA just beaten too far

One of the significant angles
Which surely will fail eventually

12 of the 14 winners
Dropped in trip to win this

Horses aged under 8
Coming from 2m 1f or shorter
Have a 0-80 record in this race
Half the field fail this statistic
Many of these rank outsiders
But so do the following horses

BALLYBAWN BELTER
RISK BELLE
RIOGA CHOICE
TULLYPOLE ANNIE
INNATENDUE
POPOVA
LIBERTY DANCE

MOLLYS GLORY is an 8yo
Horses like her from maiden hurdles
Have a poor 1-42 record in this race
That winner came from a 2m 4f race

BANNTOWN GIRL is an 8yo
Unsafe coming from a chase
Two horses have done that
Both came from Graded chases
Both came from longer distances
She does neither of these things

GAOTH CHUIL is shortlistable
There were 2 winners aged 5
Both had similar lighter weights
Both like her dropped in distance

HISTORIQUE RECONCE a 6yo
Comes with 177 days off the track 
But happy to overlook that problem
As lightly raced from W.P. Mullins 
May be the stables second choice


The strongest profile

9 of the 12 winners shared this

Horses aged 5-6-7-8-9
Under 21 career starts
Running within 8 weeks
Under 11st 6lbs
5 or more hurdle runs
Not from a maiden hurdle
Beaten under 22 lengths last time
 
GAOTH CHUIL has this profile

Selection

£4.25 Each Way GAOTH CHUIL 12/1-11/1

£1.50 Win Bet HISTORIQUE RECONCE 7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Leopardstown 1.40

11/10 Mighty Potter, 5/2 Gaillard Du Mesnil 11/4 James Du Berlais
16/1 Kilcruit 25/1 Adamantly Chosen, 33/1 I Am Maximus.
   
Grade 1 Novice Chase 2m 5f

6 runners

5 Willie Mullins

1 Gordon Elliott
 
MIGHTY POTTER the only horse
Not coming from the Mullins yard
He is top rated and the favourite

3 dominate the market

Hard to split the Mullins horses

JAMES DU BERLAIS might win
But would not be my first choice
He has raced once this season
Every other horse has ran more

Past winners of this race
Winning with 1 run that year
All had under 8 lifetime starts
JAMES DU BERLAIS has 16
Not first choice because of it

GAILLARD DU MESNIL

Looks to have more positives
He comes from the best trial
December's Neville's chase
 
Horses that ran in this Grade 1
And who then ran in this race
Provided the following winners
2011 2012 2015 2017 2018 2021
 
Horses aged 6-7-8
Who ran in that race
Beaten under 20 lengths
Having 2 or more runs that year
Have an excellent 8-23 record 
GAILLARD DU MESNIL does this

Shortlisting 2 horses

GAILLARD DU MESNIL 11/4-3/1
 
MIGHTY POTTER 5/4

 
MIGHTY POTTER on figures
Has quite a healthy advantage
So feel we should back both
MIGHTY POTTER as a saver

GAILLARD DU MESNIL 11/4-3/1
Becomes a bet around 5/4-11/8
With money back on the favourite

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet GAILLARD DU MESNIL 11/4-3/1

£4.00 Win Bet MIGHTY POTTER 5/4








Leopardstown 2.40

7/2 Indigo Breeze, 5/1 Maskada, 8/1 Now Where Or When
8/1 Real Steel, 12/1 Farceur Du Large, 12/1 Mars Harper 
12/1 Rambranlt'jac, 14/1 Ciel De Neige, 14/1 Top Ville Ben
16/1 Foxy Jacks, 16/1 Take All, 16/1 Vanillier, 20/1 Malina Girl
25/1 Ballyshannon Rose, Ilikedwayurthinkin, 25/1  The Goffer
25/1 West Cork Wildway, 33/1 Birchdale, 33/1 Egality Mans
33/1 Falco Blitz, Glamorgan Duke, 33/1 R'evelyn Pleasure
66/1 Charlie Stout.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 5f

12 Renewals

Lightly raced chasers
Have so far dominated
 
Recent winners of this
Had these chase runs
8 7 5 5 6 4 10 9 10 4 10 
 
All had under 11 chases
Those with more are 0-78

Several outsiders fail this
Last years winner does too
BIRCHDALE has 14 chases
And a long absence as well

The following horses
All have too many chase runs

TOP VILLE BEN 15 chases
REAL STEEL 22 chase runs
FOXY JACKS 21 chase runs
MALINA GIRL 12 chase runs

Every past winner of this
Had 4-10 chase runs before

Horses with under 4 runs
Have a 0-13 record in them
MARS HARPER fails this 
She is the least experienced

Against the 10 year olds
They are 1-54 in this race
BALLYSHANNON ROSE one
There are 3 more unfancied
 
The last 12 winners
All came from 2m 3f or more

NOW WHERE OR WHEN doesn't
He's raced just once in 294 days

WEST CORK WILDWAY does not
He comes from a hurdle race too
All 20 that tried that were beaten
ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN fails this
 
Horses from a Novice
Have a 0-20 record in this
THE GOFFER does this
Well beat in a Graded Novice
MALINA GIRL also fails this

INDIGO BREEXE does as well
Probably less relevant with him
As he has a break since them
But 70 days is the longest break
Any winner had he has had 84

RAMBRANLT'JAC is a 7yo
Last seen in the troytown chase
Do not see enough positives 
When he fails breeding stats too

VANILLIER has a chance
From a Grade 1 chase though
Not ideal but 2009 winner did it

Shortlist

MASKADA is a mare
The 2015 winner was as well
Not ideal but quite acceptable
Lightly raced and in form too
And it could well be significant
Having been bought for 80k
She is now running career bests
 
Best Trial Race

Comes from the best trial race
The Paddy Power Handicap
Run back on December 27th
2013 2015 2016 2022 winners
All prepped in that handicap

CIEL DE NEIGE ran in that
But was beaten 38 lengths
Has just 1 run this season 

TAKE ALL also prepped there
We also backed him £3 at 25/1 
Having his first run for new yard

FARCEUR DU LARGE an 8yo
Also comes from the best trial

Selection

£3.75 Each Way FARCEUR DU LARGE 11/1-12/1

£1.50 Win Bet MASKADA 6/1

£1.00 Win Bet CIEL DE NEIGE 10/1







Leopardstown 3.10

11/10 State Man, 6/4 Honeysuckle, 100/30 Vauban
20/1 Pied Piper, 33/1 Zanahiyr, 250/1 Takarengo

Irish Champion Hurdle
  
Looks between 3 horses

Going to knock one out

VAUBAN is only a 5yo
Younger less effective

In recent years since 2009
Horses aged 5 
Have a 0-16 record in this
But the last to win was 1992

HONEYSUCKLE

Won the last 3 renewals
Same trial in all of those
Tries to do the same again
Nobody should be surprised
If she manages to win again

However

She is a 9 year old now
And 63 days off the track

Go back to 2010

January to October

Grade 1 hurdles

Any distance

Horses aged 9 or more
Absent more than 54 days
Have a 0-41 record in them

STATE MAN 3 years younger
An extra race this season too
Looks the statistical choice 

Selection

STATE MEN 10/11-1/1

Win Bet







Hereford 4.03

6/4 Jasmiwa, 7/1 Glance From Clover, 7/1 Sure Listen
8/1 Getupearly, 8/1 Lily Glitters, 9/1 Frontier General
10/1 Ben Bulben, 12/1 Mr Washington, 14/1 Nickelsonthedime
33/1 Pour Une Raison.
 
Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

JASMIWA won last time

They say she is progressive
She may well be but a 5yo mare
Only beat her own sex last time
She had only had 3 hurdle runs
Carries 12st in weight as well

That's enough for any 5yo
She is still extremely raw 
With 45 days since a win
She may be too short here

Going to take her on

No obvious alternative

GLANCE FROM CLOVER an 8yo
Has raced just the once in months

FRONTEIR GENERAL a long break
Neither of these looked safe enough

MR WASHINGTON is a 10yo
NICKLESONTHEDIME just pulled up
Neither of these had enough positives

GETUPEARLY is inexperienced
Just 3 runs and all over hurdles
But badly beaten last time out
Do not see enough positives here

SURE LISTEN may be the one
But he is rated worryingly low (79) 
Was only 40/1 when won last time
Small stable 59 days after his win
No negative but not much to go with

Shortlisting two

BEN BULBER is unexposed

LADY GLITTERS offers more
But she has obvious limitations 
Rather split stake win + place

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet BEN BULBER 7/1 

£4.00 Place Bet LADY GLITTERS 13/8 +





Leopardstown 4.10

13/8 Gaelic Warrior, 13/2 All Those Years
8/1 Tax For Max, 10/1 Common Practice, 10/1 Hey Johnny
14/1 Good Time Jonny, 14/1 Man O Work, 16/1 An Mhi
16/1 Ballyadam, Effernock Fizz, 16/1 Fortunedefortunata
20/1 Nibiru, 20/1 The Tide Turns, 20/1 Whatsavailable
33/1 An Epic Song, 33/1 Anna Bunina, 33/1 Charli Parcs.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

GAELIC WARRIOR

This is a class act

Very well handicapped 

Statistically you can argue
We should oppose him here
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-15 record in this race
He has topweight of 11st 12lbs

He is also a 5 year old
Horses aged 5 are 2-53
Those with 10st 10lbs +
Have a 0-16 record in that

Not too bothered about that
I navigate more to his class 
The price is the big problem

Too short to bet

Too good to oppose

Not many will cope with him
But he does fail two statistics

Many rivals fail angles as well

Horses aged 8 or older
Have a 0-84 record in this race
ALL THOSE YEARS is a 9yo
That puts me off his chance

Past winners hurdle runs
9 13 10 8 5 5 11 7 3 9 6 3 8
Horse with over 13 hurdles
Have a 0-41 record in this

Best Profile

Aged 5-6-7
Under 14 hurdle runs
Under 11st 6lbs
Running within 69 days
Within 20 lengths last time
Not from a novice/maiden

TAX FOR MAX is shortlisted

HEY JOHNNY is shortlisted

GAELIC WARRIOR is too

The sensible play here
Make him the saver bet

HEY JOHNNY has momentum
Going to make him first choice

Selection
 
£6.00 Win Bet HEY JOHNNY 10/1-12/1

£4.00 Win Bet GAELIC WARRIOR 11/8

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