4 Previews 
0 Account Bet
 
No Account Bet  
  




Today's Message  
 
5 Meetings
4 Inspections

Similar issues to yesterday
Dancing around the weather
Carlisle has been abandoned
Thurles has also fallen too 

It's been a quiet limited week 
What few races I have done
Delivered a decent strike rate
6 of the last 9 selections won

Have not pushed the analysis
Not even got out of 2nd gear

But the biggest week all year
Just days away from starting

4 Previews

Not had a bet since Sunday
On either of the 2 accounts

Not at all bothered by that 
Messages are not expansive
Deliberate strategy right now
So not going for a bet again

No staked bet

No Best bet today

My Favourite Bet (Unstaked)
 
Wincanton 2.40

£8.00 Win BALLYMAGROARTY BOY 5/1-9/2

£2.00 Win OSCARS MOONSHINE 7/2-4/1


The only preview

That shows any imagination

That's why it is my favourite

But keeping this in safe mode

Before the unavoidable chaos 

That soon will be unleashed on us





Preview Selections
 
Southwell 1.15
Man On A Mission 4/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Wincanton 1.30
£7.00 Win Bet Trixster 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Windance 9/4-5/2

Wincanton 2.05
Walk Of No Shame 4/5
Win Bet

Wincanton 2.40
£8.00 Win Ballymagroarty Boy 5/1 
£2.00 Win Oscars Moonshine 7/2-4/1
  





Underneath The Message   


Southwell 1.15
Man On A Mission 4/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Southwell sprint handicap
His early price was clipped
Don't get excited much there
But I expect this to get a place
And every chance he may win


Wincanton 1.30
£7.00 Win Bet Trixster 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Windance 9/4-5/2

Only 5 runners now
Opposing the favourite
But not with a strong angle
Feels a decent compromise


Wincanton 2.05
Walk Of No Shame 4/5
Win Bet

Shortened from 11/10-4/5
One reason to stake low
Another is Jonjo trains this


Wincanton 2.40
£8.00 Win Ballymagroarty Boy 5/1 
£2.00 Win Oscars Moonshine 7/2-4/1

The hardest race covered
Especially with 7 runners
Most skillful profile today
Based on a theory no more
But it is the only race today
Where I felt I had done well







Yesterday's Summary   
 
Yesterday it you'd offered me 
Finding 2 winners in 3 races
I would have happily taken it
Even if my favourite bet lost
That took a bit of shine away
But that was a profitable day
And given weather disruptions
It was a not too bad an effort






PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
 


Southwell 1.15

5/1 Level Up, 6/1 Angle Land, 7/1 Motawaazy
7/1 Man On A Mission, Primo's Comet 9/1 Bert Kibbler
10/1 Jeans Maite, 12/1 Golden Rainbow, 12/1 Murbih
12/1 Sharron Macready, Melody King, 16/1 Birkenhead
20/1 Piranheer, 33/1 Dandy Spirit.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-76

Picking a few negatives out

February and March
Southwell 5f races  
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent over 6 weeks
Have a 0-66 record in them
The following horses fail this

JEANS MAITE
BIRKINHEAD
MOTAWAAZY
 
Go back to 2014
Southwell 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses drawn 13 +
Absent over 17 days
Return a 0-40 record
MOTAWAAZY fails this

PIRANHEER lightly raced
Havs not done enough yet

ANGEL LAND is a 4yo filly
Happy to avoid off 60 days
DANDY SPIRIT is underraced
PRIMO'S COMENT the oldest
Lacks track form looks beatable
GOLDEN RAINBOW is a 4yo
No recent run and new stable
SHANNON MACREADY a filly
Make find this a little too tough
Deeper quality than her last run
MURBIH flopped her last time
Might bounce back but a worry

LEVEL UP has positives

BERT KIBBLER very tempting
But just the 3 runs in 14 months
Means he is not quite matchable

MAN OF A MISSION

Has the fittest profile

That and 1-2-3-4 places

Make him the selection

Selection

MAN OF A MISSION 4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Wincanton 1.30

7/4 Stormy Flight, 7/2 Windance
11/2 No Hubs No Hoobs 6/1 Trixster
14/1 Valsheda

Handicap Chase 3m 1f

 
STORMY FLIGHT topweight

The combination of 12st
With under 5 chase runs
When exposed over hurdles
Is not the best of mixtures

Ran his profile and few won
But one of the horses who did
Was Stormy Flight last time out
When he win a Taunton 0-114

This is a grade higher though
He has to give weight to many
WINDANCE gets 12lbs weight 
Younger and far less exposed
He has just as good a chance
TRIXSTER is also interesting
Well beaten behind Stormy Flight 
But jockey lost his stirrup there
Could be worth a cheap saver
Equally why not flip them both

TRIXSTER is well handicapped
He is a small field horse as well

Fields of 10 or more he is 0-15
Fields of 9 or fewer he is 5-18


Small speculative stakes

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet TRIXSTER 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet WINDANCE 9/4-5/2






Wincanton 2.05

10/11 Walk Of No Shame, 7/4 Sniper Point
10/1 Beautiful Surprise, By Pass, 20/1 Three Macks
33/1 I Giorni, 66/1 Blue Anchor 66/1 Stopherandgo
100/1 Lady Amy.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle

WALK OF NO SHAME
Jonjo O'Neill 6 year old

Comes here winning last time
Much as I dislike the stable 
He has the most to offer here
And faced 3 horses aged 4
Who just don't offer as much

BY PASS was poor on the flat
Hardly bred for a test like this
SNIPER POINT ran in France
Has no UK form and a break

BEAUTIFUL SURPRISE unsafe
Unseated early in his 1 hurdle run
First run after downgrading yards

The favourite should take this
The stable being my main worry

Selection

WALK OF NO SHAME 4/5

Win Bet






Wincanton 2.40

11/4 Bluffmeifyoucan, 4/1 Island Run
5/1 Ballymagroarty Boy, 6/1 Sermando
7/1 Oscars Moonshine, 8/1 Hatos
9/1 Jet Smart

Handicap Hurdle 3m

After a non runner
Who was 3rd in the weights
The shape of the race changed
JET SMART 4th in the weights
Does not offer many positives
It dawned on me right or wrongly
That the class pair may dominate

Ratings

115 Ballymagroarty Boy
113 Oscars Moonshine

This pair
Face only a 0-106 class field

ISLAND RUN who is rated 106
Comes from a sire in Blue Bresil
Who hurdlers over 3m and more
Have yet to win in a 0-24 record
He would be the first if he wins it
And has 78 day absence as well

SERMANDO rated only 103
Has the same pedigree issue too

Hurdlers
Sired by Fuisse
Running over 2m 5f and more
Have a 0-15 record so far

BLUFFMEIFYOUCAN does too

Hurdlers
Sired by Yorgunnabelucky 
Running over 2m 5f and more
Have a 0-25 record so far

Not calling these non stayers
But none come from a sire
Who has bred a 3m winner
Over hurdles before anytime

Light circumstantial evidence

Hard to trust breeding stats

In small field races like this


But going with the class horses
From high class reliable sires
May not be the worst policy here

Not a great frame to the race
But going with the class pair

Selection

£8.00 Win BALLYMAGROARTY BOY 5/1 

£2.00 Win OSCARS MOONSHINE 7/2-4/1







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES     


Cheltenham Festival

6 days to go

Tuesdays 5 day entries
 
Supreme 20 runners
Arkle 12 runners
Ultima 37 runners
Champion 12 runners
Mares Hurdle 10 runners
Boodles 53 runners
Nat Hunt Chase 13 runners



This will reduce on Sunday
When the 48hr decs are in

Cheltenham Preparation

Going very nicely
Doing virtually nothing 
No prep is the best prep

The weather is changing
Little idea of that impact

When you arrive on Day 1
The cards are so different

Best to ignore the meeting
Freshen up it's a marathon



Champion Hurdle

Just to clarity something

State Man each way 3/1

Will probably be my choice

But it will not be a staked bet
One or two thought it may be


Staked Bets next week

No idea right now

Expect at least one of those
In one of the handicap hurdles
The stats give me confidence

Will try to avoid Burglary bets
Such as State Man each way

But I will having some myself
I'm currently considering one
Facile Vega each way 2/1-9/4
It will depend on place terms

Given his last run was a flop
His profile has been damaged
An excuse has been offered
Nit entirely convinced about it
But this looks a weak renewal
Full of resistible English horses
And I'm told from a preview night
Patrick Mullins is very confident
He is the best bet of the festival
Not too sure if that's true or not
But I read that statement recently
Give me 2/1-9/4 with 6 places 
And he will be well on my radar

But I will be having a lot of bets
That are unsuitable for staking
Some will end up on the account
But my personal aim next week
Get as many races right as I can

Next 5 Days

Message tomorrow

Working backwards

Monday 13th will be a day off

Sunday 12th

Naas Leinster National
Cheltenham Generic Stats

Saturday 11th

Standard Saturday message
Weather is causing problems
Would like Sandown to survive

This race is a new target race
Given it has a very rich history


Sandown 1.50

Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final

6/1 Hugos New Horse 7/1 Crambo 
7/1 Cuthbert Dibble 7/1 Henri The Second 7/1 Twinjets    
8/1 Crebilly 8/1 Tightenourbelts 9/1 Inneston
10/1 Etalon 11/1 Churchills Boy 12/1 Moon Hunter
12/1 Twin Power 12/1 Amrons Sage 14/1 Henry's Friend
14/1 I'd Like To Know 14/1 Theatre Man 16/1 Cerendipity
16/1 Blow Your Wad 16/1 Cerendipity 16/1 Mexico
16/1 Off To A Flyer 20/1 Idealdes Villerets 20/1 War Soldier
20/1 Western Zephyr 25/1 Georges Saint 25/1 Val Dancer    
25/1 Pearly Island 33/1 Bubble Dubi 33/1 Stans The Man    
40/1 Gaelic Park 66/1 Grey d'Alco

Novices' Handicap Hurdle  

Graded race over 2m 4f

For National Hunt types

Novice Handicap Hurdles
Listed and Graded races
Any distance since 2004
Horses aged 7 or older
Have a poor 0-46 record
 
Lighter raced horses dominate

Past winners
Had the following hurdle runs
4 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 3
  
Go back to 1999
Horses with 6 or more hurdles
Have a 0-61 record in this race 

Horses from handicap hurdles
Do not seem to win this race

They are 0-38 since 2008
They are 1-56 since 2003
 
Horses winning handicaps last time
Last won this race 24 years ago
 
Go back to the 2008 renewal 
Horses rated 121 or lower
Have a 0-41 record in this
  
Horses with 11st 9bs or more
Have a 2-46 record in this race
 
Horses with over 6 career runs
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 1-53 record in this
   
Horses running within 21 days
Have a miserable 1-98 record 
 
Horses aged 5
Running within 3 weeks
Have a 0-38 record in this race
 
Go back to 2001
Horses running within 3 weeks 
Coming from 2m 5f or shorter
Have a 0-84 record in this
 
Horses that won last time out
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Are 0-33 since the 2000 renewal 

Go back to the 2002 renewal
Horses that won last time out
Running in the previous 32 days
Return a worrying 0-67 record

Horses aged 5
Have never won this race
With more than 11st 8lbs

Horse with under 4 hurdle runs
Carrying 11st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-19 record in this race

Horse with under 5 hurdle runs
Carrying 11st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-22 record since 2003
 
Horses aged 6
3 career starts
3 hurdle starts
Absent over 21 days
Coming from 2f 3f or more
Have a 4-7 record in the race
Those beaten last time
Have a W W 2 W 3 record in this
 
Horses winning Novice Hurdles
With under 5 lifetime starts
Have a 2-38 record in this
Both winners won years ago
Since 2004 they are 0-29
Coming from 2m 3f or shorter
They have a 0-24 record 
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