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Ayr 1.50 
£7.00 Win Bet Rafferty's Return 5/1
£3.00 Win Bet Dunnet Head 5/2-9/4







Final Deliberations 
 
Start of a fresh new week 
Not the best of weekends
Saturday wasn't a disaster
Sunday did not go too well

Considered dropping today 
With some poor scheduling
But decided to do 1 preview 
Start a long week very slowly

Ayr has lots of non runners
Lots of odds on favourites 

Happy enough with this race
Think it is worth an interest

Nothing close to a strong bet
Much better cards tomorrow


Ayr 1.50 

£7.00 Win Bet RAFFERTY'S RETURN 5/1

£3.00 Win Bet DUNNET HEAD 5/2-9/4







Preview Selections

Ayr 1.50 
£7.00 Win Bet Rafferty's Return 5/1
£3.00 Win Bet Dunnet Head 5/2-9/4






Yesterday's Summary     

Not the Sunday we hoped for
Much as we lost two meetings
Nothing back from 5 previews
Zuzukel was simply ridiculous
Forced by 2 late non runners
Had 5 minutes to edit the race
Take a guess or just cancel it
Should have done the latter
Mahon's Way was a big flop
Just couldn't cope on ground
Knew that was a possible flaw
Oppose the following favourite
Got that right but frustrating
Harmonya Maker finished 2nd
Beaten by a shock 33/1 winner
A shock 40/1 winner followed
We had the 2nd and 3rd there
So ran into two nasty surprises
Last race was quite ambitious
Got it wrong and a poor day



PROFILES & PREVIEWS    


Ayr 1.50

3/1 Dunnet Head, 13/2 Pavlik, 13/2 Rafferty's Return
15/2 Ballycoose, Mack The Man, 8/1 Guernesey
9/1 Whelans Bridge, 10/1 Aurora Thunder, 12/1 Grand Voyage
16/1 Better Getalong, 20/1 Milvale.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Horses rated 0-124

December has 138 races

Recent runs are best

Similar races show

Horses with over 12 runs
Absent over 51 days
Have a poor 1-131 record
The following horses fail

MILVALE off 676 days

BETTER GETALONG a 12yo
Who has not ran in 215 days

MACK THE MAN off 273 days

AURORA THUNDER a mare
Who has not run in 75 days

PAVLIK does not fail this stat
As he is still very lightly raced
But he faces 401 days break
Wildly drifting like he is not fit

WHELANS BRIDGE is similar
Lightly raced with 435 days off
Unlikely winner with just 3 runs

GUERNSEY is a 7 year old
His profile is a problem here
Dropping down from 3m 2f
None of the 138 races like this
Went to any horse doing that
Worse by having 1 run this year
And only 12 days since that run

BALLYCOOSE is a 6 year old
He's raced just once this year
Beaten 14 lengths in that race
May improve could improve
That was his first run in 581 days
Must have had a serious setback
Second time back he is still risky

131 similar races 
Horses under 8 years old
Having 1 run in over a year
Running within 4 months
Return a 0-37 record in them
BALLYCOOSE fails this angle

GRAND VOYAGE is a 7yo
He has been chasing a while
Last hurdle run was back in 2021
Wouldn't be my first choice

DUNNET HEAD

Lightly raced 5 year old
Won on his handicap debut
Positive profile he is a saver

RAFFERTY'S RETURN

Maybe able to defy topweight

Rated 124

Faces a 0-117 class field

Needed his seasonal debut
As most of the trainers seem to
Placed on his 2nd run this year
That was a fer better 0-131
Compare his rivals last time
To the ratings of todays rivals

Last time opponents rated

114 131 127 117 125 114 109 122 121

Today's opponents rated

117 117 115 115 113 110 110 108 105 105 103

This is a much easier race

Going with this strategy

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet RAFFERTY'S RETURN 5/1

£3.00 Win Bet DUNNET HEAD 5/2-3/1







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  


Lots to think about this week

Including the annual problem

Should we play in the Darts

The market leaders

Luke Humprhries
Michael Van Gerwin 

Drawn in the same half
Not looked at this event
May or may not cover it

Obviously the highlight



Cheltenham

Friday-Saturday

Two day December meeting

The meetings headline race

Saturdays December Gold Cup





Race angles below

Ante Post Statistics

December Gold Cup

Saturday December 16th

Cheltenham 1.50
 
5/1 Thunder Rock, 6/1 Il Ridoto, 7/1 So Scottish
9/1 In Excelsis Deo, 12/1 Fugitif, 12/1 Easy As That
12/1 Fakir D'oudairies, 14/1 Frero Banbou, 16/1 Monmiral
16/1 Datsalrightgino, 20/1 Grandeur D'ame, 20/1 Solo
20/1 Complete Unknown, 25/1 Richmond Lake
25/1 Torn And Frayed, 25/1 Railway Hurricane
25/1 Le Milos, 25/1 Jay Jay Reilly, 33/1 War Lord
33/1 Walk In Clover, 40/1 Madara, 40/1 Do Your Job
40/1 Prince Escalus

Past winners chase starts
11 6 5 20 15 5 7 24 5 3 6 12 7 9 
6 9 9 8 7 13 8 9 19 9 14 13 22
 
19 of the last 22 winners
Had under 14 Chase runs

Only 1 past winner
Had under 5 chase runs
That was unusually a 4yo
 
Past winners
Had these following absences

28 20 28 28 28 28 36 22 
22 29 28 28 28 188 28 40
 
25 of the last 27 winners
Ran within the last 40 days
 
Horses aged 5
Have a 0-16 recent record
The last 5yo winner was 1966

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-79 record since 1997

19 of the last 20 winners
Who had a run that season
Came from 2m 3f or more
Horses from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 1-42 record since 1997

Horses from recent 3m races
Have a 0-34 record in this race
 
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a 1-41 record since 1997
That was 2018 winner Frodon
Previous winner  with 11st 11lbs +
Was Pendill way back in 1973

Past winners
Had the following runs this year
2 2 4 1 2 4 4 2 1 3 
2 1 2 2 0 2 2 2 3 2

Horses racing first time out
Last won this race in 2007

Horses with 1 run this season
Have a 5-118 record in this race

They were generally lightly raced
With 5 6 7 24 6 chase runs
 
Having 1 run that season
Having over 7 chase races
Have a 1-62 record in this
Those beaten last time 0-51

Go back to 1997
Horses aged 5 or more
Under 11 career starts
Have a 0-56 record in this
 
11 of the last 24 winners of this race
Prepped in the BetVictor Gold Cup
 
Horses with 1 run that year
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have a 0-34 record in this

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