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Today's Message 



Had a choice of 2 horses

For the days best bet

This one was chosen





Today's Best Bet 

Ripon 1.40

YELLOW BEAR 5/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3 (4)


 
Not committing to one meeting
Taken a wider spread of races

Cheltenham has a mares card
Just not enough history to that

Ended up with the 6 previews

Two stand out to me from them
 


Ripon 1.40

YELLOW BEAR 5/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3 (4)


 
Tipperary 4.35

BEAUMADIER 11/4-3/1

Win Bet




I'm going to back both selections

But probably stake them differently

Details in Underneath the message

Not sure which of them is best





YELLOW BEAR 5/1

Ripon is a complicated track
Certainly not one of my favourites
But you can bet 1-2-3-4 places
At least with some of the firms



BEAUMADIER 11/4-3/1

I'd like to go each way here
But not everyone will like it
And it is a very weak market
So going with the Ripon bet




Today's Best Bet 
   

Ripon 1.40

YELLOW BEAR 5/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3 (4)






Preview Selections
 
Cheltenham 1.30
Terresita 11/1-12/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
 
Ripon 1.40
Yellow Bear 5/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3 (4)

Newmarket 1.50
£7.50 Win Bet Kerdos 9/2
£2.50 Win Bet Changing Colours 3/1

Newmarket 3.35
£8.50 Win Bet The Foxes 3/1-11/4
£1.50 Win Bet Indestructible 5/1-6/1

Cheltenham 3.50
£4.50 Each Way Arclight 13/2
£1.00 Win Bet Komedy Kicks 9/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3 (4) 
 
Tipperary 4.35
Beaumadier 11/4-3/1 
Win Bet







Underneath The Message 


Cheltenham 1.30
Terresita 11/1-12/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

This preview may be too ambitious
Would prefer to see market support
May have been better with savers
Just could not identify the right ones

Better stake would probably look like
£3.00 Each Way Terresita 11/1-12/1
With £4 worth of saver bets as well
Left it was a small stake each way
But can not pretend it feels too safe

  

Ripon 1.40
Yellow Bear 5/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3 (4)

Like the bet a lot
But Ripon is often a problem
It is an Apprentice race as well
But all things being open and fair
He is handicapped to take this

My own bet

£30 Win Bet 6/1 Betfair



Newmarket 1.50
£7.50 Win Bet Kerdos 9/2
£2.50 Win Bet Changing Colours 3/1

If I was having a bet in this
I would be a bit more tempted 
Betting Changing Colours e/w
Even at 11/4-3/1 with 4 places
Not having a bet in this myself
The staking given will stand
But thats where I would take it

 


Newmarket 3.35
£8.50 Win Bet The Foxes 3/1-11/4
£1.50 Win Bet Indestructible 5/1-6/1

Badly framed race
Heavily reliant on a sire statistic
Which affects 2 fancied horses
No way of judging our chances

Cheltenham 3.50
Arclight 13/2-7/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3 (4)

Just following race angles
Sample size is too low really
So this is in the speculative camp


Tipperary 4.35
Beaumadier 11/4-3/1 
Win Bet

One of my best bets
I would be tempted each way
Even accepting the danger
That he could be on the bounce


My own bet

Beaumadier

£20 Each Way 11/4-3/1





Yesterday's Summary  


Quite a mixed overall message 
Ended with a big priced winner
Which repaired a lot of damage
Managed some place returns
Gemirande ran well and placed 
One or two bets looked unlucky
Charged Up surely would've won
He was unlucky badly impeded 
There was no one stand out bet
PROBE was the one suggested
He finished in second each way
Looked the winner for a long way
Thought he had gone and won it
But at least we returned stakes
Scrappy day it felt a score draw
  

  


 
PROFILES & PREVIEWS  

   


Cheltenham 1.30

5/1 Lone Star, 6/1 Dollar Bae, 6/1 Windtothelightning
7/1 Sashenka, 10/1 Merry Poppins, 12/1 Grivetana
12/1 Presenting A Queen, 12/1 Well Vicky 14/1 Marada, 
14/1 Princess T, 16/1 Terresita, 20/1 Malaita
20/1 Mulberry Hill, 25/1 Galice Macalo, 25/1 Lime Drop
50/1 Brown Bullet, Could Be Trouble.

Mares Handicap Hurdle

Listed Class race


Past renewals since 2008  
Lightly raced horses are best
Looking for 3 requirements

Those aged under 8 years old
Those with under 14 hurdles
Having under 21 career starts

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-42 record in this race

Horses with over 20 career runs
Have a 0-34 record in this race

Also want under 14 hurdle runs

The above angles

Eliminate the following horses
 
Sashenka 
Could Be Trouble
Galice Macalo
Princess T
Marada
Brown Bullet
Lime Drop
Merry Poppins
Lone Star
 
GALICE MACALO has 12st
Not a good race for highweights

No horse aged 5 has won this
Via a Novice or maiden hurdle
WINDTOTHELIGHTNING fails 

No horse aged 5 has won this
With more than 10st 7lbs weight
GRIVETANA has 11st 6lbs

MALAITA won last time out
But has 59 days off since then
Just 1 run in the last 131 days
And going up too far in class
MULBERRY HILL off too long
 
 
Terresita

WELL VICKY has won 3 this year
Beaten last time the run may be over

DOLLAR BAE could win
Not a profile I warmed too much

PRESENTING A QUEEN a 6yo
Deserves to make the shortlist  
 
TERRESITA is a 6yo
Fit and running consistently well
Should go well off a light weight

Selection

TERRESITA 11/1-12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5





Ripon 1.40

5/1 Global Spirit, Hortzadar, 7/1 Sir Maxi
7/1 Tothenines, Yellow Bear, 8/1 Cosmos Raj
8/1 Sandret, 12/1 Devilwala, Frog And Toad
14/1 Cisco Disco, 16/1 Dogged
20/1 Ugo Gregory.

Apprentic Handicap 8f

HORTZADAR is topweight

Felt he was an unusual favourite
Admittedly well handicapped

But he is 8 years old
He has 80 days off
And drawn in stall 10

Since the Stalls renumbered

Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Drawn 9 or higher are 1-64
HORTZADAR has this profile
In fields of under 4 all 29 lost

Opposing him and the horses
Drawn on the widest outside too
CISCO DISCO one drawn in 12
May not get home after a break
FROG AND TOAD out drawn 11

DOGGED hasn't done enough
UGO GREGORY maybe unfit
DEVILWALA from the same yard
May also need his comeback run

COSMOS RAJ is a 5 year old
Has a lot of weight first time out
Well beaten in last seasons race
Might win but not my first choice

SIR MAXI can't be ruled out
Felt there are more likely winners

Shortlist

TOTHENINES is a 4yo
Outclassed in the Spring Mile
Lost momentum and hard to read

GLOBAL SPIRIT is an 8yo
Won't be surprised if he wins
  
SANDRET is 7 years old
Can win but his first even run
On soft ground over a mile 

YELLOW BEAR

He is the least exposed horse
Ran well enough last time out 
Looked like him and the favourite
Went off too quickly in that 

His win at Thirsk last year on soft
Suggests he is well handicapped
Did a Racing Post Rating of 75 
He has several figures in the 70's
Yet races only from a mark of 65
He would be my choice of them all

Selection

YELLOW BEAR 5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)




Newmarket 1.50

3/1 Changing Colours, 11/2 Kerdos, 13/2 Pinafore
8/1 California Gem, 8/1 Ferrous, 10/1 Immortal Beauty
10/1 Installation, 12/1 Shouldvebeenaring, 14/1 Yacowlef
16/1 Bluelight Bay, 20/1 Once More For Luck
25/1 Grace Angel, Knebworth, 33/1 Swift Asset
50/1 King's Crown

3yo Handicap 6f

SHOULDVEBEENARING

Topweight

Rated 104 faces a 0-94

Class horse
Fittest horse

One of his biggest problems
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-37 record in this race

I could forgive him the weight
Based on his other positives
But stall 12 is not too helpful

Since the stalls renumbered
All 13 winners were drawn 1-9
Horses drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-49 record in this
 
IMMORTAL BEAUTY is a filly
First time unsafe breeding stats
Sire has no winners over 6f +
In this class after an absence
SWIFT ASSET the same problem
And has a very difficult draw too

Go back to 1999
Horses from Nurseries
Have a 0-80 record in this 
Clearly a flawed preparation
The following horses fail this

YACOWLEF
GRACE ANGEL
 
Seasonal debutants
Coming from 5f are 2-44
Since 2005 they are 0-22
With under 4 runs 0-6
INSTALATION fails both stats
And has a trappy draw as well

Seasonal debutants
More than 3 career runs
Carrying 8st 12lbs or more
Have a poor 1-57 record in this
The following horses fail this
BLUELIGHT BAY
ONCE MORE FOR LUCK
IMMORTAL BEAUTY

March April May
Similar 6f handicaps
Female horses
Under 5 career starts
First time out this season
Return a 0-23 record
PINAFORE has this problem

CALIFORNIA GEM has 11 runs
Most exposed on the shortlist
Not unlike the 2012 winner of this
But he won on his previous start
And she is a filly and he was not

Shortlist 

CHANGING COLOURS 
FERROUS 
KERDOS 
 
KERDOS has 3 career starts
Nothing wrong with that profile
Beaten in a recent handicap
Does damage his profile though
FERROUS has the same profile
Both were only beaten in a photo
So happy to overlook that issue

CHANGING COLOURS 
Has the best profile first time out

7 of the last 8 winners
Were seasonal debutants like him

5 of the 7 first time out winners
Had 3 career runs as he does
Most likely winner but he is short
And stall 11 could be a problem

Since the stalls renumbers
Horses drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-39 record in this race
Goingto make him a saver bet

KERDOS has handicap form
FERROUS a danger does not
That is why he is the selection

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet KERDOS 9/2

£2.50 Win Bet CHANGING COLOURS 3/1





Newmarket 3.35

6/4 Mysterious Night, 3/1 Mostabshir, 3/1 The Foxes
7/1 Indestructible, 14/1 Ancestral Land, 20/1 Dancing Magic
66/1 Mr Mistoffelees.

Craven Stakes 

Only 7 runners

Too many known unknowns

The market leaders
Share the same sire

Small speculative stakes

Based on a weak breeding stat

Horses sired by Dark Angel
Running over 7f +
Running in Group races
Absent over 66 days
Have a 0-46 record so far

MYSTERIOUS NIGHT fails this
MOSTABSHIR also fails this too

No surprise in a small field
If one of them beats this stat
But going with two other horses

THE FOXES a big improver
Has the highest official rating
Proven over course/distance
So deserves every consideration
And room for a saver bet as well

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet THE FOXES 3/1-11/4

£1.50 Win Bet INDESTRUCTIBLE 5/1-6/1





Cheltenham 3.50

5/2 Media Naranja, 100/30 Under Control, 8/1 Arclight
8/1 Cianciana, Obsessedwithyou, 9/1 Komedy Kicks
14/1 Golden Glance, 16/1 Pretending, 20/1 Circus Act
20/1  Pink Fire Lilly, 33/1 La Breille.


Fillies juvenile hurdle

Just 4 past renewals

MEDIA NARANJA won last time

She has had 4 lifetime runs
She has had 3 hurdle races
That could be a little short

4 Past winners

Had 8 10 11 9 career starts

Had 6 4 3 3 hurdle starts

I'd like a close match to this

MEDIA NARANJA with 4 runs
Half as many as past winners

UNDER CONTROL has 3 runs
Happy to take her on as well

Others potentially inexperienced

GOLDEN GLANCE
LA BREILLE
OBSESSEDWITHYOU

On the other side of the coin
No horse won with over 11 runs
The following looked too exposed

CIRCUS ACT
CIANCIANA
PINK FIRE LADY

PRETENDING didn't appeal
Beaten too far last time out

Shortlisting 2 horses

Both match the exposure
That past winners had

ARCLIGHT

KOMEDY KICKS


KOMEDY KICKS is drifting
She has 83 days absence too
Considered her as a £1 saver

Selection

 ARCLIGHT 13/2-7/1

Each Way 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)





Tipperary 4.35

3/1 Heartrate, 7/2 Parting Glass, 4/1 Beaumadier
6/1 Billboa, Daisy Jones, 14/1 Amazon Lady, 14/1 Big Time Girl
16/1 Cholita, 33/1 Linger For Longer, 50/1 National Question
50/1 Spirit Of Eagles, 200/1 Second Fiddle.

5f Maiden

March and April

36 similar races

No winners were aged 5 +

DAISY JONES a 5yo mare
Has a 6 month absence
Gives weight to 3yo males
Feel she is not safe enough
  
Go back to 2015
Tipperary 5f races
With over 9 runners
Every horse that ran
With under 3 career runs
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4 
Have a 1-59 record  

The lowest draws

Underperform over 5f here
   
PARTING GLASS has this problem
CHOLITA another failing this angle
BILLBOA  also fails this as well

HEARTRATE drops from 7f to 5f
Not ideal it has been done before
But not by a horse with his profile
Beaten so far and so recently too

March to June
5f maiden races (3yo)
Horses from 7f or more
Running within 65 days
Beaten over 10 lengths last time
Return a 0-93 record in them
HEARTRATE has this problem

BEAUMADIER ran 12 days ago
Did enough to win if doesn't bounce

Selection

BEAUMADIER 11/4-3/1

Win Bet





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    


World Snooker

Backed Mark Selby yesterday

Not much to say about the bet
Looking for a possible free bet

Ronnie drawn in the other half
Selby is a multiple past winner
Should be able to go quite deep
Before the pressure gets deeper

1000 Guineas

Newmarket 

May 7th

4/1 Tahiyra, 4/1 Meditate, 6/1 Dream Of Love
7/1 Mammas Girl, 12/1 Electric Eyes, 14/1 Never Ending Story
16/1 Lezoo, 16/1 Mawj, 33/1 Fairy Cross, 33/1 Running Lion
40/1 Coppice, 50/1 Powerdress, 50/1 Bridestones
50/1 Magical Sunset, 50/1 Matilda Picotte, 50/1 Zarinsk

MAMMAS GIRL

Won the Nell Gwyn Stakes

Swopped late won going away

It was impressive enough

Doubt she will be my choice

Cheap enough at 35k

Her mother and father
Have a joint stamina index
Of a measly 12.9 furlongs

If you look at his sire's record
The only winners he has bred
Running over a mile or more
Have come in Class 4 or lower

Might look a player right now
But on the day she may not
When she faces the big girls

  


Scottish Grand National


Will cover the race as usual

Right now not so enthusiastic

Corach Rambler

Won the English National
Did not fancy him on sire stats


Kitty's Light 

Favourite in the Scottish National
Hated him in the Eider
Failed multiple angles there
But doesn't know when he is beat
And made me look foolish that day

Don't particularly relish the idea
Of opposing him for good reason
And watch him ridicule me again
Conscious of the fact last season
The Eider Chase winner won this

May warm to the race later on

But right now the race I prefer

And looks the natural target race

Is the Spring Cup at Newbury

Statistics Below




Ante Post Statistics

Saturday

April 22nd

Newbury 3.35

Spring Cup Handicap

4/1 Lattam, 6/1 Baradar, 10/1 Alrehb, 10/1 Air To Air
10/1 Saga, 12/1 Brunch, 14/1 Atrium, 14/1 Jimi Hendrix
16/1 Isla Kai, 16/1 Bear Force One, 16/1 Aussie Banker
16/1 Dawn Of Liberation, 20/1 Galiac, 20/1 Outbreak
20/1 Astro King, 20/1 Revich, 25/1 Bless Him
25/1 Toimy Son, 25/1 Farasi Lane, 33/1 Great Max
33/1 Stately Home, 33/1 Dutch Decoy, 33/1 Alexander James
150/1 Baikal

 
Official Rating of past winners

105 92 99 95 100 96 95 85 85 97 86 
95 89 100 88 98 94 82 79 100 78 83

Last years winner
Was the highest rated 
The last 7 were rated at least 92
The race may be getting classier
 
Horses rated 91 or lower
Have a 0-46 record since 2014
 
No horse has won
With under 4 career starts
All 15 that tried were beaten

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 1-68 record since 1998

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a poor 2-127 record
Those aged 6 + with under 9st 4lbs
Have a 0-91 record in this race

Horses with over 21 runs
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a 0-100 record in this race

Horses from 7f or shorter
Have a 1-59 record since 2004
Those running this year are 0-31
Those aged 4 doing it are 0-28

Horses from the All Weather
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-45 record in this

Horses with 3 or more runs
In the previous 3 months
Have a modest 1-51 record
That winner had 7 days off

Horses from the Lincoln
Do well if aged 4-5-6
Beaten under 14 lengths last time
All started under 16/1 last time

Horses absent over 149 days
Have a 7-189 record in this race
Those aged 6 or more are 0-37

Winners aged 4
All had between 4-20 runs
Scored best with 4-13 runs
Horses aged 4
Over 13 career starts
Had a poor 1-56 record in this
Only the 2005 winner did this

Horses aged 5
Have a weak 5-135 record

Horses aged 5
Over 11 career starts
Absent more than 2 weeks
Have a poor 1-79 record

Horses aged 5
Over 11 career starts
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-43 record in this

Horses aged 5
Over 19 career starts
Have winless 0-55 record

7 winners won first time out
They all had 4-19 career runs
Scored best with 4-13 runs

Seasonal debutants
Drawn in stall 13 or higher
Have a 1-96 record in this  

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