4 Previews 
0 Account Bet



No Account Bet 
      


Today's Message 

3 Meetings  
4 Previews

Lots of small fields today
Never likely to be any bet


I do quite like the message
But all of the 4 previews
Can be staked many ways



Gallyhill 

He runs in the 2.40 at Nass
My angles say just avoid him
Won't be shocked if he wins
Decided not to fight my stats
Don't have the energy today
So I am opposing the horse 
I like one in Gallyhill's race
 
Naas 2.40 

£8.00 Win Bet JODY TED 5/1-11/2

£2.00 Win Bet BARNACULLIA 4/1



Before a non runner spoilt it
Jody Ted was an each way bet
But now just the 7 runners left

Backed him at 14/1 last time 
Backed into 13/2 he ran 4th
Good run in a far better race 
He looks so well handicapped

It will be very annoying here
If he gets beaten by Gallyhill !

Would not want to tempt fate
By staking the bet only to see
The bad profile Gallyhill win it

But as there are now 7 runners  
I have had to go win and saver
And that is not good enough
To stake him as a strong bet



Today's Best Bet

None



Jody Ted would have been
Had there been 8 runners
But we are down to 7 now

I still like the alternative bet
Having a win bet and a saver
My own bet will differ slightly
That's below in U.T. Message








Preview Selections



Fontwell 2.00  
Lightonthewing 5/1 
Each Way

Naas 2.40 
£8.00 Win Bet Jody Ted 5/1-11/2
£2.00 Win Bet Barnacullia 4/1

Fontwell 3.00
£8.00 Win Bet Wavering Down 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Fountains Chief 7/2 

Fontwell 3.30
General Medrano 5/2-11/4
Each Way





Underneath The Message     

 
Fontwell 2.00  
Lightonthewing 5/1 
Each Way

My alternative option
Was going for a win bet  
With a saver bet as well
Can not split my savers
Bolsover Bill was one
Furkash another danger
Shortlisted these three
Could go win and place
Too many options really
Decided to go each way  


Naas 2.40 
£8.00 Win Bet Jody Ted 5/1-11/2
£2.00 Win Bet Barnacullia 4/1
 
If the saver bet wins
I will be happy for the message
And the above stakings stands

But from my point of view
I am playing this differently



£22 Win Bet Jody Ted 5/1-11/2

£16 Place Bet Gallyhill 11/8



My angles have bullied me
To drop this Gallyhill obsession
I have not come to terms with it
My angles say he shouldn't win
They never said he can't place
So a defiant split stake for me



Fontwell 3.00
£8.00 Win Bet Wavering Down 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Fountains Chief 7/2 

Toss of the coin job
Could have gone for either
And saver on the other one 
The edge over the others
Does not look too significant
So see this as small stakes

Fontwell 3.30
General Medrano 5/2-11/4
Each Way

Whilst this is a burglary bet
And can't pretend otherwise
There are grounds on angles
To think he should take this
I'm not in the mood to bet it
But it does look a clever bet
If you don't mind such bets





Yesterday's Review   
  
Account bet loser in the eider
But did not have to be a loser
RATH AN LUIR finished in 5th
Ran well enough and creditable
That he held on to the 5th place
There were 5 places available
But not every firm offered this
So I felt it fairer to use 4 places
And suggested you took the 5  
Those that did that benefited
Others like me who didn't lost
Whether that was too virtuous
Or just being a mug who knows
Bit unlucky yesterday in places
Mainly with some of the staking 
Flegmatik's race one of those
The saver bet ran great in 2nd
The each way bet finished 5th
When there were just 4 places
That one got lost in the staking
Alligator Alley was a bit unlucky
Finished 4th after interference
Which we knew was quite likely
Cadatharla placed comfortably
But not enough went our way
Feel we did deserve a bit more
Those who took those 5 places 
On the account bet did get more
And relied less on the luck factor
Which wasn't blowing our way


 




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


   
 
Fontwell 2.00

3/1 Bolsover Bill, 3/1 Hector Jaguen, 4/1 Furkash
11/2 Lightonthewing, 8/1 Oscarsman, 10/1 Drop Him In
10/1 Sure Listen, 25/1 Dannystory, 33/1 Auld Sod.

Handicap Chase 2m 5f
 
Opposing the chase debutants
Not the easiest track to navigate

February and March
Fontwell 
Handicap chases
Any distance
Any class
Chase debutants
Have a weak 1-38 record
Those with over 4 races
Have a 0-18 record in them

DANNYSTORY has no chase form

SURE LISTEN a 6yo on his debut

OSCARMAN has no chase form
Not for me as a 9yo and 12 stone

DROP HIM IN has 2 chase runs
Finished only 1 neither impressive

HECTOR JAGUEN is a 6 year old

Lightly raced
5 career runs
1 chase start

Looked at all similar races
Run in February and March
In this sort of class and lower

Horses aged 6
Under 7 career starts
Just 1 chase run
Beaten in that chase
Running within 3 months
Return a poor 1-41 record
HECTOR JAGUEN shares this
Not an impressive profile
Looks on the raw side here

Shortlist

BOLSOVER BILL is topweight
One of the experienced horses
Having had 10 previous chases

FURKASH similar with 8 chases
They both take on a lot of horses 
With a lot less chase experience

LIGHTONTHEWING an 8yo
Unseated rider 11 days ago
No strong objections to him
Less exposed than above pair
More experienced than the rest 

Selection

LIGHTONTHEWING 5/1

Each Way







Naas 2.40

2/1 Limerick Lace 9/2 Barnacullia, 
6/1 Gallyhill, 13/2 Jody Ted
10/1 Razzle Dazzle Love, 
10/1 It Could Be You, 14/1 The Little Yank.

Novice Handicap Chase 2m 4f

8 renewals

All winners were aged 6-7-8

Happy to oppose the elders
RAZZLE DAZZLE LOVE one
She is a 9yo mare fell last time

IT COULD BE YOU is a 9yo
Exposed doesn't offer much

GALLYHILL is out again
Fancied him a lot recently
He has not fulfilled my hopes

Ran 7 days ago over 2 miles
He was beaten 10 lengths
Ran his profile it shows this

Go back to 2003

Novice Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 3f and more
Any class of race
Any time of the year

Horses from a 2m chase
More than 7 chase runs
Beaten last time out
Running within 10 days
Return a winless 0-33 record

GALLYHILL has this profile
My angles do not like him

Past winners 
Had 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 chase runs
None had more than 6 chases
GALLYHILL has now had 9 runs

THE LITTLE YANK an 8yo
Has 2 hurdle runs since a break
Fell on his previous chase start
Do not see enough positives

LIMERICK LACE has topweight
She is a mare with just 3 chases
She also comes up 4f in distance
Not the safest of profiles

Go back to 2010 
January to October
Novice Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 4f and more
Any class of race 

Mares from 2m races
Under 14 career starts
Under 6 chase starts
Running within 60 days
Have a 0-37 record 
Quite a messy profile
LIMERICK LACE does fails it
 
Shortlist  
  
JODY TED 13/2 

BARNACULLIA 5/1


BARNACULLIA is a 6 year old
He is quite exposed for his age

Go back to 2008
January to July
Novice Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 4f 2m 6f
Any class of race 
Horses under 7 years old
Over 18 career runs
Over 5 chase runs
Have a 0-35 record
BARNACULLIA fails this

Despite that shortlisting him
He will probably have to win
To get a run at Cheltenham
 
  
JODY TED is speculative
But there is a case for him

Won a Beginners Chase
Decent Racing Post Rating 134

Ran badly twice after that
If there were genuine excuses
He looks throw in off 123 here

3 runs ago a beaten favourite
That may have been too soon
After his heavy ground victory
Just 19 days before at Clonmel

Pulled up 2 runs ago  
But was hampered in that race
Finished lame may not have stayed
 
Last time ran well enough
When going down half a mile


JODY TED is my number 1


Selection

£8.00 Win Bet JODY TED 5/1-11/2

£2.00 Win Bet BARNACULLIA 4/1





Fontwell 3.00

11/4 Peace Of Rome, 3/1 Wavering Down
4/1 Watergrange Jack, 9/2 Fountains Chief
8/1 Heaven Smart, 10/1 Invincible Nao
14/1 Pilbara, 50/1 Bluffmeifyoucan.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Last years winner a 5yo
But todays runners that age
Do not have safe profiles

PEACE OF ROME a 5yo
Has had just 2 hurdle runs
But raw and has a big weight
INVINCIBLE NAO another 5yo
Mixes absence and weight here
Neither looked safe profiles

Past renewals show
Every winner had recent runs
Those absent over 37 days
Had a 0-44 record in this race
INVINCIBLE NAO fails this

PILBARA does not offer enough
HEAVEN SMART is 6 years old
Got hammered just 20 days ago
Still a bit on the raw side 4 starts
For a poor last run and 11st 10lbs

WAVERING DOWN is an 8yo
One of the most exposed in this
He has to step up in distance
Has raced just once in 114 days

Prefer the younger horses
Who have been busier recently

Shortlisting two horses

FOUNTAIN CHIEF
WATERGATE JACK

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet WATERGATE JACK 7/2-4/1

£2.00 Win Bet FOUNTAIN CHIEF 7/2-4/1







Fontwell 3.30

 8/11 Kansas Du Berlais, 3/1 General Medrano
11/2 Goodwin Racing, 8/1 Red Windsor
25/1 Blackwater, 25/1 Letmetellusomethin
66/1 Rollo's Kingdom, 100/1 Charlie Magri.

Novice Hurdle 2m 1f
 
KANSAS DU BERLAIS a 4yo
Has ran well in 2 hurdle races

GENERAL MEDRANO a 6yo
Because he won last time out
Has to give him 19lbs in weight

Racing Post are scepitcal
They think the 4 year old will win
But I am not convinced about

Fontwell
January to April
Novice Hurdles
Any distance 

Horses aged 4
Have a weak 1-26 record
None won in Feb or March
Only winner had 5 races
KANSAS DU BERLAIS has 3

One of two others 
Could be a threat to these
GOODWIN RACING is one
Does not do enough for me

Think it may be a match
The 4 year old favourite
Probably should be that
But the record here is weak

I'd rather have the 6 year old
Who won a nice last time out
Going to suggest each way
Those finding that unpalatable
Can bet it to win on his profile

Selection

GENERAL MEDRANO 5/2-11/4

Each Way







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES      
 
16 days to Cheltenham

33 days to the Lincoln

48 days to the Grand National



Superb racing on the horizon

Cheltenham prep work in play
Making steady progress in this

Can not do the handicaps yet
The weights are not quite out
Being released next Tuesday




Flat Season

Only 33 days away now
Like many I have missed it

Sometimes after the Lincoln
The flat disappears for a bit
This year it doesn't happen

Once it starts it carries on
No annoying breaks after it
And it hits the ground running
It starts off with the Lincoln
Just a few words about that


Doncaster April 1st

Lincoln Handicap

7/1 Awaal 10/1 Baradar 12/1 Al Mubhir
12/1 Brewing 12/1 Muraad 12/1 Okeechobee  
14/1 Akhu Najla 14/1 All The King's Men 14/1 Wanees 
14/1 Unforgotten 16/1 Atrium 16/1 Croupier 16/1 Great Max        
16/1 Majestic 16/1 Montassib 16/1 New Kingdom
16/1 Tranquil Night 20/1 Alrehb 20/1 Migration 
    
Bit too early to cover this

Shock 5yo winner last year

Expect it will revert to type
Go to an unexposed 4yo
No shortage of those types

Okeechobee is clearly one
But his trainer is the worry
Can not trust him to get fit
And he has a weight issue

Brewing another 4 year old
His profile is a bit too raw
He will fail breeding stats too

Simon Crisford

Couple of interesting types

AWAAL is the favourite

But he will have 9st 7lbs
He will be racing off 102

Go back to 2005
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-53 record in this race

AWAAL will fail this statistic
OKEECHOBEE will fail it too


Simon Crisford's other runner

CROUPIER 16/1

He has the right profile

Horses aged 4
First time out
Winning a Class 3 handicap
When last seen in past season
Score well in this race

Last years second
Came from Simon Crisford
Doing the same thing as he is

CROUPIER won at Chelmsford
He broke the mile track record 
He interests me most right now
Much as this is very early days




League Cup Final

Today 4.30pm

Manchester United v Newcastle

Both sides will be desperate 
Both to win and not to lose 

Personally as a United Fan

I wanted an insurance bet
Get something if they lost
But the prices are so tight
Does not seem much value

If Man United go in front
I will be laying them to lose
Hope it will be my insurance

But my bet will be this one



No Goalscorer  

Win Bet at 10/1

Lay 0-0 in running at 4/1 or less

It should be a cautious start
Newcastle defend very well
United can start quite slowly
Nobody dare make a mistake

The second the match kicks off
The price for No Scorer or 0-0
Will be shortening all the time

May well only take half an hour
And it could be as low as 4/1
Enabling a free bet to be taken
Thats the plan if it goes that way






Boxing

Tonight 9.30pm

Betfair Prices

1.93 Jake Paul 

2.46 Tommy Fury 

12.5 The Draw

Will not insult you pretending
I know any more than anymore
Many will not be interested 

Read a lot about this fight
Heard all the pundits views
Case can be made for both

Surprised me to learn
Their world rankings are so low
Both ranked in the high 300's

The Youtube back story is dated
Is that really any less relevant
Than a Love Island preparation

Looking at them physically

Jake Paul looked the stronger

He is the future cash cow here
Must be a real vested interest
In keeping the gravy train going

The perfect gravy train result
Would clearly be a drawn fight
Opening up a certain rematch
The Draw has to be considered
Especially as it is only 8 rounds

Selection

£9 Win Bet Jake Paul at 1.93

£1 Win Bet Draw 12/1

*******************************************************
*******************************************************