Mathematician 458602-11-2023



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No selections
   


 
Final Deliberations
 
Lingfield has been abandoned
Made a difficult day a bit harder
Especially with the weather too

Not got a good message today
Have not found enough I liked
Hope it won't end up as a flop
Just does not feel safe enough

May yet surprise but not excited
Has to be a day for small stakes
Will try and find better tomorrow

No selection

 





Preview Selections



Stratford 12.35
£6.00 Win Bet Vorashann 7/2
£4.00 Win Bet Donnie Azoff 6/4
 
Thurles 12.55 
£6.00 Win Bet Good World 6/1-7/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Battle Of Ridgeway 5/4-11/8
 
Wolverhampton 1.05
Heartrate 4/1 
Each Way

Wolverhampton 2.45
Minnesota Lad 8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4







Yesterday's Summary   
  
The best bet did not race
Fakenham was abandoned
Half way through their card
That left just 3 sand races
The three finished W P P
None of those were losers
Which was quite pleasing
But hard to have won much
On a weather affected day




PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
   

  

Stratford 12.35

7/4 Donnie Azoff, 9/4 Iddergem
7/2 Vorashann 6/1 Laser Focus
20/1 No Recollection 

Selling Hurdle 2m

Strange race with no profiles
You can describe as acceptable
Dominated by 3 horses aged 7
Who all have question marks

DONNIE AZOFF flopped last time
Running in a 3 mile handicap chase

IDDERGEM has a difficult task
Mixing inexperience with 3 runs
And a long 464 day absence
Do not like that combination at all

Bought by a racing club after 1 run
Two defeats then 15 months off
Now dropped into a selling hurdle
Not really a safe enough profile

LASER FOCUS is a cheap 5yo
Just 1 poor run in 153 days now

VORASHANN has a long break
Statistically that's fine as a 7yo
But this is a small stable to trust
The trainers record with horses
Absent over 89 days are 1-51
Will he be fit enough to win this ?

Tempted if I could have a saver
On the favourite Donnie Azoff

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet VORASHANN 7/2

£4.00 Win Bet DONNIE AZOFF 6/4









Thurles 12.55

4/1 Uncle Gerhard, 9/2 Tomas O Maille
5/1 Battle Of Ridgeway, 6/1 Good World
10/1 Appian Way, Mahlers Cove, Warm In Gorey
14/1 Battle Away, 14/1 Song For My Father
14/1 Umndeni, 20/1 Maciver, 20/1 Vocito
25/1 Val The Man, 33/1 Celebrating Katie.

Beginners Chase 2m 2f

Lots of deadwood in the race
But few solid profiles on offer

TOMAS O MAILLE a 6yo
Has his chase debut today
Profile fine but a weak stable

If you look at his trainer
He has had 12 career winners
But since 2018 all his runners
Have a miserable 1-132 record
 
UNCLE GERHARD is similar
Not sure we can trust his stable
With an absence of 539 days
The trainers career record
With horses off over 110 days
Is an unimpressive 2-185 record
Those running August to December
Have a 0-91 record first time out

BATTLE WAY is hardly safe
As a 10yo mare with no chase form

BATTLE OF RIDGEWAY a 5yo
Has a sound profile could win this

But every past winner of this race

Had a recent run

Most had several recent runs

Most had chase experience too

SONG OF MY FATHER does
He would make the shortlist
But I'd like more recent races

BATTLE OF RIDGEWAY does
He would be my saver option

GOOD WORLD ticks most boxes

Had to trust any each way
So going to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet GOOD WORLD 6/1-7/1

£4.00 Place Bet BATTLE OF RIDGEWAY 5/4-11/8






Wolverhampton 1.05

100/30 Intervention, 9/2 Mykonos St John
11/2 Heartrate, 13/2 Phoenix Fire, 13/2 Visibility
8/1 Showtime Mahomes, 10/1 Granary Queen
12/1 Outrun The Storm, 16/1 Ravenglass
20/1 Abolish, 25/1 Candy Warhol.

7f Handicap

Nasty little race

Some of the lightweights
May not have enough class

GRANARY QUEEN a mare
Has a heavy recent defeat
CARNY WARHOL low figures
RAVENGLASS does as well
ABOLISH looks underraced
And has plenty of weight as well

October and November
7f Handicaps
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 6f or shorter 
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-36 record in them

ABOLISH fails this statistic
INTERVENTION does as well
He has Topweight and 10 stone

VISIBILITY looks underraced
With just the 1 run in 144 days
OUTRUN THE STORM a 5yo
Not doing enough to tempt me
All his wins earlier in the year
And has no form at this track 
PHOENIX FIRE is a 3yo
Not ruled out down in distance
Nor with the inside stall either
But not the first choice here

HEARTRATE is a 3yo
Comes here with momentum
Fit in form and not exposed
Felt he was the percentage bet

Selection

HEARTRATE 4/1

Each Way







Wolverhampton 2.45

2/1 Digital, 6/1 Absolutelyflawless
8/1 Minnesota Lad 8/1 Muscika, 8/1 Surprise Picture
10/1 Algheed, Mersea, 14/1 Kensington Agent
14/1 Yesterday's Hero, 16/1 Mokaatil
25/1 One Night Stand, 33/1 Hawajes.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-76

ALGHEED is topweight
Older horse drawn in stall 1
He was 40/1 last time out
In a similar class to this race
And just 2 runs since April
Makes him look underraced

YESTERDAYS HERO a 3yo
Very raw and a long absence
Happy to ignore his chance 
KENSINGTON AGENT a filly
Has a nasty 146 day absence
MOKATIL badly drawn for an 8yo
HAWAJES has a nasty absence
MESEA has not done enough
ONE NIGHT STAND is weak
Up in trip with no recent race

October to December
6f Handicaps
Run in class 3-4-5
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 59 days
Have a winless 0-69 record
MUSCIKA has this problem
Don't want a 9yo off 77 days

That leaves 4 horses

DIGITAL could easily win
Just the sole run in 6 weeks  
I'd like more for a 5 year old
Giving weight for 3 year olds
 
SURPRISE PICTURE a 3yo
Has a fit profile could go well
I'd have liked better last time
But it was a tactical race there

ABSOLUTELYFLAWLESS
Has a good enough recent run
When you factor in her profile
She was entitled to need that
And had a wide passage home

MINNESOTA LAD is a 3yo
Found several similar winners
Unexposed with a good break
Several off 7-9 weeks like him
Profile as good as any here
But we don't know if he is fit
And whether this is his best trip
But worth a chance on his profile

Selection
  
MINNESOTA LAD 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Sunday Night 
 
Collected on the football

Albeit with a heavy heart

But good to call it right


Saturday

Declarations through today

Field sizes will be important
 
Sunday's target race

Weather allowing

The Cork National

18 have been declared

That is a bit of a worry

Could end up with a small field

Either way will target the race

Statistics below


Ante Post Statistics

Sunday

Cork 3.15
 
Cork Grand National

6/1 Royal Thief 13/2 Idas Boy 
7/1 Walk Away 15/2 Call The Tune 8/1 Defi Bleu 
8/1 Diol Ker  8/1 Foxy Jacks 8/1 Glenquin Castle 
8/1 Salmanino 10/1 Flash De Touzaine 
12/1 Champagne Platinum 12/1 Mercury Lane 
14/1 Fairyhill Run 16/1 Everglow 20/1 Sir Bob  
20/1 History Of Fashion  20/1 The Little Yank 
33/1 Cavalry Master

Cork Grand National
    
Best historical profile
 
A recent run
2 + runs this season
Under 16 Chase runs
 
Past winners
Had the following chase runs
5 6 2 21 15 6 5 10 
3 12 5 4 8 4 11 6

15 of the last 16 winners
Had under 15 Chase runs 
Last 3 winners had 5 6 2

The last 21 Cork National winners
Had the following runs that season

5 0 3 3 0 5 1 5 2 6 3
5 5 5 0 7 3 4 3 3 3

Horses with just 1 run that season
Have a weak 1-63 record in this

Horses with 1 run this year
Coming from 3m or shorter
Have a 0-47 record in this race

Recent winners
Had the following absences

36 265 36 29 
216 21 36 29 
26 20 21 15 

Seasonal debutants 
Won in 2021 2018 2007
All other winners had recent runs

Horses rated 134 of more
Have a 0-40 record in this

Past 14 renewals show
Horses with 11st 4lbs or more
Have a 1-32 record in them

The one winner was in 2021
Small field full of high weights
  
Horses with under 15 runs
  
Horses from Class 3 or lower
Won 11 of the last 12 renewals
     
Horses from Class 2 or higher
Have a 1-73 record in that time

No horse won this
Racing over 3m 4f or more last time

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