4 Previews 
0 Account bet 





Message Bets


No Account bet 



Today's Best Bet   


Curragh 2.25

£3.00 Each Way ANTHEM NATIONAL 20/1 -22/1

£4.00 Win Bet COMMANCHE FALLS 5/4-11/8



Going down as 3 places
You can get 4 on Betfair

Most firms offering 22/1
There are titbits of 25/1
Bet 365 offering us 28/1 
The saver is important







Final Deliberations      


Final message of the week
Not sure about Monday yet

4 Previews

Tried to dissect each one
Feels a good overall effort

Staking was quite difficult
We will need plenty of luck
More so with that staking
My best bet in the opener

Split stake bet

Saving on the favourite

Betting one of Joseph's at 22/1


Curragh 2.25

£3.00 Each Way Anthem National 22/1 -20/1

£4.00 Win Bet Commanche Falls 5/4  







Preview Selections


Curragh 2.25
£3.00 Each Way Anthem National 22/1 -20/1
£4.00 Win Bet Commanche Falls 5/4  

Curragh 3.00
Jon Riggens 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Uttoxeter 3.12
£5.00 Win Bet Amateur 14/1
£3.50 Win Bet Jaytee 11/1
£1.50 Win Bet Ruthless Article 11/2 -5/1

Curragh 4.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Farnborough 8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Gambe Veloci 9/1-10/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Blues Emperor 8/1







Yesterday's Summary   
    
Account bet placed 4th each way
HALLOWED TIME ran really well
Wasn't too surprise he drifted out
He has been a slow starter lately
But that problem now looks cured
As he got out surprisingly quickly
One of 4 horses that were clear
He did enough to place and at 16/1
So the main bet was a good effort
Otherwise I was a bit disappointed
Tiber Flow did win so a good start
Roman Dragon won as a saver bet
If I had known he'd have been 7/2
I may have made him the selection
We were doing really well half time
But the second half crumbled a bit
Starnberg ran a fabulous second
But as I feared it was the saver bet
That killed the bet I chose wrong
Which I knew was a likely problem
Nothing from the last two previews
Felt we needed one of those to win
Happy with the account bet though
Overall that was far from a disaster 
But it clearly wasn't a winning day






PROFILES & PREVIEWS    
    


Curragh 2.25

11/8 Commanche Falls, 11/2 Mooneista, 6/1 Wodao
10/1 Ano Syra, 10/1 Castle Star, 10/1 Twilight Jet
12/1 Lady Tilbury, 16/1 Tango Flare, 20/1 Anthem National
20/1 Coralillo, 33/1 Gustavus Weston.

Dash Stakes

Listed race over 6f
 
3 year olds are just 1-21 in this 
Opposing all of these 3yo's here

LADY TILBURY the worst draw
She is also a filly up in distance

CORALILLO a 3yo with a break

WODAO has 1 run in 76 days

Horses with under 9 runs
Have a 0-20 record in this race
TANGO FLARE only has 5 runs

GUSTAVUS WESTON outclassed
 
Horses with 11-15 career starts 
Have the best record in this race
Horses with over 15 career runs
Absent more than only 7 days
Provide a winless 0-24 record  

MOONIESTA fails this statistic
She is an exposed older mare
Who has to come up in distance
 
COMMANCHE FALLS a 6yo
One of the most exposed here

Has a 4lbs ratings advantage
Should ensure he goes close
But he is very exposed now
He faces 46 days off the track
Second longest absence here
Every past winner of the race
Raced within the last 36 days
 
Horses with 11-15 career starts 
Have the best record in this race
 
TWILIGHT JET has 15 races
But just 1 run in 12 months now

CASTLE STAR in the same boat
Having raced once in 260 days

ANO SYRA has 14 career runs
That is in the correct range here
But she is a 4yo filly from 5f
 
 
On the figures

COMMANCHE FALLS is clear
Even if he is on the exposed side
Think he should be a saver bet

The main selection is a guess

ANO SYRA was considered

TANGO FLARE was as well
Although he is inexperienced
His last time figure is strong
Second only to the favourite

Came down on an outsider

ANTHEM NATIONAL

Hard to like on the figures
But what if he is a 6f horse ?

Not much stamina in pedigree

Unraced as a 2yo

His 3yo runs were all over 7f
Did manage to win one of them
And ended the year rated 100

He's ran 4 times as a 4yo

Long absence in January
Had 281 days off over 7 furlongs
He was the stable second string

Went to Dundalk in April
Stable second string again
Did not look to stay the mile

No chance next time out
Dropping down from 8f to 5f
Still ran quite a decent race
Racing on his own up the middle

Last time over a better distance
Ran in a hot Curragh handicap
He did not have a fit profile there
And he was stuck in no mans land
Raced up the middle of the track
Rail drawn runners dominated it

Never had a chance to show
What he might do over this trip

It is a leap of faith

But he is 28/1 and 33/1

We are saving on the favourite

No surprise if he troubles these

ANO SYRA is a non runner
That has shortened the price

Selection
 
£3.00 Each Way ANTHEM NATIONAL 20/1-22/1  

£4.00 Win Bet COMMANCHE FALLS 5/4 






Curragh 3.00

6/1 Run Ran Run, 7/1 Jon Riggens
8/1 Laugh A Minute 8/1 Master Matt, 9/1 Silmaniya
11/1 Big Gossey 11/1 Sheikh Maz Mahood, 12/1 Harmony Rose
12/1 Loveday, 16/1 Came From The Dark, 16/1 Lokada
18/1 Hispanic, 18/1 Primo Uomo, 18/1 Tawaazon
20/1 Mehman, 20/1 Michaela's Boy, 25/1 Harry's Hill
33/1 Mymomentintime.

Rockingham Handicap 5f

Last year a 3yo won this 
Takes their record to 2-33

Against certain types of 3yo 

Do not want one with weight
HISPANIC a 3yo has 9st 6lbs
Beaten too far too recently

MICHAELA'S BOY a 3yo
Overexposed and a big weight
Stuck in a middle draw as well

SILMANIYA is a 3yo filly
She's raced once in 9 months
That may be asking too much

Horses with 1 run this season
Who were beaten in that race
Have a 0-26 record so far
SILMANIYA also fail this stat
 
RUN RAN RUN is a 3yo
Good form has positives
But only 5 career starts

Past renewals show
Horses with under 7 runs
Have a 0-23 record in this
RUN RAN RUN fails this

Horses aged 7 or older
Having a 0-42 record in this race
The following horses fail this

PRIMO UOMO
LAUGH A MINUTE
MASTER MATT
COME FROM THE DARK

Go back to 2008
5f Handicaps 
Class 2 races
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Winning last time out
Carrying 9st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-22 record in them
MASTER MATT has this problem

Go back to 1997
June and July 
5f Handicaps 
Class 2 races  
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 19 days
From Class 2 or lower 
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Have a weak 1-112 record
The following horses fail this

LAUGH A MINUTE 
COME FROM THE DARK

MEHMAN is absent too long
HARRY'S HILL hard to like
Coming from the outside draw

MYMOMENTINTIME a 4yo
Lowest rating of every runner
So 57 days break is a big ask

HARMONY ROSE is a 4yo filly
Fillies aged 4 or more
Have a 0-29 record in this
Shes on a career high mark

LOVEDAY another 4yo filly
Wouldn't be my first choice
LOKADA another 4yo filly
Not matchable to any winner
TAWAAZON is very exposed
Disapointed last time out 
Had a lot of recent runs too

BIG GOSSEY is a 6 year old
Beaten in the 2021 renewal
Made him a negative that day 
Runner up in last years race
So he has to be respected
But creeping up the handicap
Mark of 90 in last years race
He has to run off 100 this year
 
SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD a 4yo
Has got an interesting profile

Horses aged 4
Just the 1 run this year
Winning last time in that  
Under 9 career starts
Have a W 2 record in this
SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD is a fit
But drawn over in stall 1
He becomes very hard to judge
Also worries me that last time
He was one of the lightweights
And was a lower grade horse
When winning Class 5-6 races
Albeit improving when a 3yo

JON RIGGINS is a 5yo
Finished 9th in this last year
But he was underraced then
Much fitter profile this season
If stall 16 turns out to be fine
Then he has a decent chance 

Selection

JON RIGGINS 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Uttoxeter 3.12

5/1 Cap Du Nord, 6/1 Kinondo Kwetu, 13/2 Twig, 
8/1 Amateur, 9/1 Ruthless Article, The Abbey
10/1 Jaytee, 11/1 Coeur Serein, 12/1 Definite Plan
14/1 Fidux, 16/1 Kalooki, 20/1 Anightinlambourn
20/1 Captain Tommy, 20/1 Russian Diamond
25/1 Easkey Lad, 25/1 Organdi.

Summer Cup

Handicap Chase 3m 2f

Race has been downgraded
From a Listed race to Class 2
So will the statistics work out ?

KINODO KWETU won in May
This was said to be his target
He is a progressive 7 year old
Rated 145 faces only a 0-138
So plenty to like about him here
But how safe is his profile ?

Go back to 1997 
January to September
Every handicap chase
Run over 2m 7f and more
Run in Class 2 and higher
During these 9 months

Horses aged 7
Over 4 chase runs
Absent over 34 days
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-63 record in them

KINODO KWETU fails this 
Albeit with tricky parameters
It suggests there is a problem
With certain parts of his profile

Older exposed horses
Have not done well in this race

Horses aged 11 or more
Have 1-58 record in this race

DEFINITE PLAN is an 11yo
ORGANDI is also an 11yo

Past winners of this race
Had the following Chase runs
17 13 21 4 12 10 11 14 7 9 4
Most exposed winner of this
Had 21 previous chase races

Those with 22 or more chases
Have a poor 1-62 record in this
Those absent over 10 days
Have a 0-60 record in this race
The following horses fail this

CAP DU NORD -38 chases

CAPTAIN TOMMY - 24 chases
 
Horses from 3m 5f or more
Beaten in that race last time
Have never won this race 
 
COEUR SEREIN has this profile
ORGANDI also drops from 3m 5f

EASKEY LAD is up 3 grades
ANIGHTINLAMBOURN too risky
RUSSIAN DIAMOND is rejected
Requires too big a leap of faith
 
Most past winners lighter raced
None his age have won this race

Possibles

FIDUX is a 10yo
With 21 chase runs already
He is a bit on the exposed side
 
THE ABBEY has positives
Having 13 chase runs is fine
But he also has 49 career runs
Horses with over 35 lifetime runs
Have a 0-60 record in this race
The following horses fail this

THE ABBEY
FIDUX 
CAP DU NORD

KALOOKI has 138 days off
Not a negative on his profile
And from a smart  stable too

JAYTEE is on a hat trick
Improving going up 2 grades
Could not rule him out in this

AMATEUR a similar profile
  
TWIG is lightly raced with 4 chases
Finished W W 2 W in these races
My only concern about his profile
His last 6 runs were over hurdles
Not jumped a fence in 9 months
Like him more as a saver bet here
But he too short now around 4/1

RUTHLESS ARTICLE a 10yo
Finished second in this last year
When clearly underraced before
One of the better all round profiles

AMATEUR can't be underestimated

Seems to be progressing well

Ran himself into form

Last time at Ffos Las

He broke the track record

A record I think was his anyway

Career best figures last time

Every chance from a light weight


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet AMATEUR 14/1

£3.50 Win Bet JAYTEE 11/1

£1.50 Win Bet RUTHLESS ARTICLE 11/2 -5/1







Curragh 4.15

13/2 Chazzesmee, 7/1 Farnborough, 8/1 Arniemac
8/1 Rahmi, 14/1 Blues Emperor, 14/1 Brave Troop
14/1 Casanova, 14/1 Cordouan, 14/1 Gambe Veloci
14/1 Joe Masseria, No More Porter, 14/1 Tosen Wish
16/1 Cheers Again, 16/1 Current Option, 16/1 Earls
16/1 Howyoulikethat, Sirjack Thomas, Super Over
20/1 Celtic Crown, Saltonstall, 25/1 Snapraeterea
25/1 Zabeir, 40/1 Inchturk.

8f Handicap

14 Renewals

Highest weights have struggled
None with big weights this year
Have much to recommend them
Opposing all of those horses
 
Against the horses aged 8

Horses with 1 run that season
Have a 0-34 record in this race
Opposing all of those horses too

Against the long absences 

And the highest of the draws

Horses from 7f races
Absent more than 20 days
Have a 0-23 record in this
CHAZZESMEE has this profile
Up in distance 98 days off too
And stall 1 could be a problem
JOE MASSERIA a similar issue

Every past winner
Had at least 5 career starts

ARNIEMAC only has 3 runs

Horses aged 4 or more
Under 7 career starts
Have a 0-38 record in this
RAHMI has this 0-38 profile

So do the following horses
  
GAMBE VELOCI
ARNIEMAC
BLUES EMPEROR

NO MORE PORTER is a 5yo
Has enough to be shortlisted

3 year olds are 4-22 in this

Those with 5-10 career starts
Coming from 8f or further
Beaten under 8 lengths last time
Have a 4-9 record in this race

FARNBOROUGH has this profile

Rather than go each way

Want to save on two horses

Who fail unsafe statistics

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet FARNBOROUGH 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet GAMBE VELOCI 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet BLUES EMPEROR 8/1

*******************************************************
*******************************************************