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Final Deliberations


A cold disruptive morning

Musselburgh is abandoned

Doncaster also abandoned

This has killed the message
Takes out 3 of the 6 previews
Including the stronger analysis

Newbury has a limited card
Several odds on shots there

Have to write the day off now
The weather is fully in charge
Just 3 previews now remain
 
Saturday has 5 meetings
Every track will be inspecting
Hopefully Newbury will be on
But things are unpredictable


No selection today






Yesterday's Summary  

The message did not deliver 
Think we deserved a bit more
Partly this was down to staking
Which was either bad or unlucky
My angles produced 4 negatives
Managed to get 3 of them beat
Good angles to open a race up
The odds on favourite in the first
But made the wrong staking call
Quaresome each way bet failed
Race got won by my only danger
Going with the split stake option
Would have saved all the stakes
So felt we were a bit unlucky there
Only 1 of the four negatives won
Paradias blotted the copybook
Went for a win and a place bet
Finished 3rd and 4th but it failed
As the wrong horse got the place
Either bad or just unlucky staking
Dollar Nolimit only finished in 4th
Got two good negatives beaten
It was a toss up going each way
Or a win bet saving on the winner
Chose the wrong staking again
Fancied the 1st 2nd and 4th here
So losing on the race was poor
With Joseph O'Brien training him
I did not want to have a big bet
But we should not have lost there
And again bad or unlucky staking
Coco Mademoiselle won easily
But just too short to be any help 
Finished up with a 3rd and 2nd
Cleatus Poolaw finished second
Could have gone each way here
But the split stake bet didn't work
My angles avoid any big disgrace
But because one negative won
Can not praise them for yesterday
I just the message did not deliver
Because of the staking choices
Some unlucky some self inflicted
Overall felt we deserved better



Preview Selections

Newbury 3.35
£6.00 Win Bet Ed Keeper 7/2
£4.00 Win Bet Hyland 5/4-11/8

Dundalk 5.00
£8.50 Win Bet Cool Dan 100/30-3/1
£1.50 Win Bet Pomeriggio 11/2-6/1

Dundalk 5.30
£6.00 Win Bet Clarita 7/1
£3.00 Win Bet Back Down Under 5/2
£1.00 Win Bet  Anvika 9/1-8/1







PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
    


Newbury 3.35

3/1 Hyland, 4/1 Hoe Joly Smoke, 4/1 Ramo
9/2 Ed Keeper 8/1 Gentleman At Arms, 11/1 Regal Blue
12/1 Rambo T, 25/1 Hurricane Harvey, 25/1 Iceo Madrik
25/1 Skandiburg, 33/1 Espoir De Romay
40/1 Simply The Betts.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Long history in this race 

Dominated by certain types

Unexposed horses dominate
Especially with recent races

The more runs you have
The weaker your chance
Especially without recent runs


With under 20 career runs
Running in the last 5 weeks

Horses with 20 + career runs
Absent longer than 2 weeks
Have a 0-50 record in the race
The following horses fail this

Only 5 horses passed my tests

HYLAND
HOE JOLY SMOKE
RAMO
ED KEEPER
RAMBO T

Not easy to split these
 
RAMO is up two grades
Just 1 run this season as well

RAMBO T has a chance
Just whether 11 career runs
And 8 previous hurdle races
Could be a bit too exposed

HYLAND has a lot of weight
He has a similar problem too
With 12 runs with 11 hurdles

ED KEEPER  is a positive

HOLY JOE SMOKE a 5yo
Looks raw but has a chance
Only maiden hurdle form

Need luck with the staking

Playing it this way

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ED KEEPER 7/2

£4.00 Win Bet HYLAND 5/4-11/8






Dundalk 5.00

7/2 Rhasidat, 9/2 Cool Dan, 11/2 Pomeriggio
7/1 More Profit, 8/1 Miss Alaska, 10/1 Go Go Gonzo
10/1 Gregorina, 12/1 National Style, 14/1 Lady Craftsman
14/1 Veil Dance, 25/1 Avanti Avana, 33/1 Betty's Secret.

7f Claimer (2yo)

Big field and quite open
 
COOL DAN was 4th last time

RHASIDAT behind in 6th place

Whilst it is fair to say

RHASIDAT has since won a race

But when beaten by Cool Dan
He was only a 66/1 outsider
He was getting lumps of weight
And now has to race off levels 
COOL DAN does look superior
The market seems to agree 
I would prefer him from the pair

MISS ALASKA is a filly
She has raced 3 times before
And has a strange 2 day break
Don't see a safe profile here

October to December
Every 2yo race over 7f

Horses with under 4 runs
Coming from 7f or shorter
Running within 5 days
Return a 0-47 record
MISS ALASKA fails this

Too unorthodox a profile
Might win but happy to avoid
MORE PROFIT is up from 5f
She would not be first choice
Opposing the unraced horses
Might win but safer to ignore 
VEIL DANCE is unraced
NATIONAL STYLE is as well

Shortlisting 3

COOL DAN 100/30-7/2

POMERIGGIO 11/2

GREGORINA 9/1

GREGORINA could go well
But sold recently for £3400
Cheap purchase new stable
The other pair look a bit safe
 
Selection

£8.50 Win Bet COOL DAN 100/30-7/2

£1.50 Win Bet POMERIGGIO 11/2






Dundalk 5.30

7/2 Clarita, 4/1 Back Down Under, 6/1 Anvika
6/1  Beautiful Dawn, 7/1 Katie Bairdie, 8/1 Blame Thechampagne
12/1 Limoncello Lady, Manhattan Dreamer, 14/1 Abiding Star
20/1 Valkyrja, 33/1 Excilla, 50/1 Mary Bagot, Pocket Paralysis
66/1 Sophia Klimt.

2yo Maiden 6f

BACK DOWN UNDER a filly
Sets the standard on figures

They will want a win with her
Her runs at 5f are excusable
Her sire doesn't get 5f winners
She is best judged on 6f form

What worries me about her
The testing 48 day absence 
Having already had 7 races

Go back to 2011

Every 2yo maiden over 6f
Grass or sand
Any time of year
Fillies
Over 5 career starts
Absent over 38 days
Have a 0-11 record
Whilst few have tried
None have won before
Raises a doubt about her
May best be used as a saver

Joseph has an unraced filly

BEAUTIFUL DAWN cost 300eu
Going to oppose her drawn in 1

Go back to 2009
Dundalk
Unraced 2yo fillies
In fields of 8 or more
Drawn in stall 1
Have a weak  1-65 record
In races over 5f and 6f
All 20 that tried have lost
BEAUTIFUL DAWN fails this
  
BLAME THECHAMPAGNE 

She is a filly from a 5f race
Just 1 run in 149 days now
Can not match her to a winner
Having had 7 races already
 
ANVIKA has a decent chance
But was only a cheap horse

CLARITA has some form
Seems very weak in the market
But others have been supported

Tight call going this way

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet CLARITA 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet BACK DOWN UNDER 5/2

£1.00 Win Bet ANVIKA 9/1-8/1

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