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Favourite Bet


Ayr 5.10

£4.00 Each Way Golden Valour 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet Optician 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet Fairmac 8/1-7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Final Deliberations


Big fields and softer ground 
It's a tough day to call right 

Decided against a main bet
Most previews feel similar 
In terms of strength of risk

There are 3 split stake bets
Not so suitable to be staked

Not certain to get much back 
A break level day acceptable
Given ground and field sizes 


Saturday has lots of choice
So going for a bet tomorrow

The race I liked best is this

  
Ayr 5.10
 
£4.00 Each Way GOLDEN VALOUR 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet OPTICIAN 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet FAIRMAC 8/1-7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


Golden Valour a bit of a monkey
Should not be underestimated 
At a great price on soft ground
With a very recent run on side

The two savers are important

Optician is the right kind of 3yo
Fairmac could outclass this lot
But one problem they both share
They have the worst of the draw
In the highest and lowest stalls 

It is a messy 3 horse portfolio
But the prices are quite helpful

Just the race I liked best of all

But nothing is too strong today

Tomorrow is the main target day
This week is far from settled
Get a winner to repair damage
From Wednesdays losing day








Preview Selections

Listowel 2.05
Shecouldbeanything 11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
 
Ayr 2.15 
Beautiful Diamond 11/8 
Win Bet

Listowel 2.40
£6.00 Win Bet Dunleer Phoenix 7/1-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet Stellar Symphony 5/4

Ayr 2.50 
£5.00 Win Bet  Funny Story 11/2--5/1
£5.00 Place Bet Aussie Girl 1/1

Newbury 4.10
£5.00 Win Bet Biggles 13/2-6/1
£5.00 Win Bet Aldaary 1/1-10/11

Ayr 5.10
£4.00 Each Way Golden Valour 16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Optician 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Fairmac 8/1-7/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4






Yesterday's Summary 
     

Non committal message yesterday
Pleasantly surprised with the results
Managed to land 2 winners in 3 bets
Didn't expect that with larger fields
Not too many would have bothered
Did not bet any of the bets myself
But pleased two won for confidence







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


Listowel 2.05

5/1 Filey Bay, 11/2 Icare Allen, 6/1 Shecouldbeanything
15/2 Glan, 8/1 Horantzau D'airy, 10/1 Fils D'oudairies
12/1 Magic Tricks, Volantis, 14/1 Aime Desjy, The Big Chap
16/1 Man O Work, Thecompanysergeant, 20/1 Ifiwerearichman
25/1 Cash Back, 33/1 My Gaffer,  40/1 Captains Nephew
40/1 Wouldn't You Agree.
 
Handicap Hurdle 2m

Listed class race

10 Past renewals

All 10 winners
Had at least 9 career runs
Those that did not were 0-19
The following have all lack this

HORANTZAU D'AIRY a 6yo
Who has ran once in 122 days

AIME DESJY an 8yo
With just 1 run in 8 months

MY GAFFER also fails this
CAPTAINS NEPHEW does

VOLANTIS has 8 career runs
He is a 5 year old off  49 days

Horses aged 5 are 2-33 in this
Those absent 21 + days are 0-19
The following horses fail this

VOLANTIS 
MY GAFFER
ICARE ALLEN
MAN O WORK
IFIWEREARICHMAN

Horses aged 5 are 2-33 in this
Those with under 9 hurdles
Have a 0-29 record in this race
The following horses fail this

IFIWEREARICHMAN
MY GAFFER
VOLANTIS 

CASH BACK unsafe as an 11yo
Without a run in the last 48 days

WOULDN'Y YOU AGREE is unsafe

MAGIC TRICKS is a 7 year old
Just one run in several months 

High weights have struggled
Horses with 11st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-17 record in this race
FILS D'OUDAIRIES fails this stat
Combined with 78 days off the track

FILEY BAY has 11st 5lbs
We could forgive him that weight
But comes from a 7f flat race
That's hardly a safe profile 

THECOMPANYSERGEANT a 6yo
Just has enough career runs (9) 
But first run for a new trainer
Which is a downgrade in stable

THE BIG CHAP won last time
But in a far weaker race than this
It was also 75 days ago as well

GLAN is an 8yo
Pulled up last time out
Pulled up in this last year
Might pop up but hard to commit to

SHECOULDBEANYTHING

She is an in form mare

Passes my main angles in this

Won at Killarney 4 weeks ago 
Both the 2011 and 2017 winners
Were mares from the same race
Felt she was the best overall risk

Selection


SHECOULDBEANYTHING 11/2

Each WAY

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5









Ayr 2.15

11/8 Beautiful Diamond, 6/4 Purosangue
8/1 Mon Na Slieve, Queen's Guard, 12/1 Bombay Bazaar
100/1 Alfa Moonstone.

Harry Rosebery Stakes

5f Listed race (2yo)

May well be a match

PUROSANGUE is top rated

BEAUTIFUL SOUND next best

Can not be much between them
PUROSANGUE has had 4 runs 
Two little things put me off him
First of all he is a male horse
Fillies have done much better
Winning 7 of the last 9 renewals 
He comes via the Roses stakes
All 17 horses that did that failed
MON NA SLIEVE also ran there
Has so far been a weak trial 

BEAUTIFUL SOUND is a filly
As were most previous winners 
Unlike her 2 biggest dangers
Also comes from a better trial
Margins are tight tough race
But history says take the filly

Selection

BEAUTIFUL SOUND 11/8

Win Bet









Listowel 2.40

7/2 Stellar Symphony, 6/1 Jacks Fancy, 6/1 Meehall
13/2 Heart Of Rome, 8/1 Dunleer Phoenix, Punk Rock Girl
10/1 Gendarme, 12/1 Flemenora, 16/1 Crimson Chief
16/1 Glorious Singer, Inchidaly Robin, O'Faolains Glory
20/1 Oskar High, Sovereign Duke, 25/1 Keeffelee
25/1 Oh'herewego, 25/1 Ragin Cajun, 25/1 Sweet Bonnie.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Not spending too long here
Picking out a few negatives

HEART OF ROME is a 4yo

Listowel
Handicap hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and further
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Have a 0-56 record in them  
HEART OF ROME fails this

Listowel
Handicap hurdles
Run over 3 miles +
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 5 
Have a poor 3-78 record
Those with under 10 runs
Have a 0-41 record in them
The following all fails this

PUNK ROCK GIRL
SWEET BONNIE
JACKS FANCY

Few others look hard to like
CRIMSON CHIEF ran 7 days ago
Beaten 44 lengths is off putting
O'FAOLAINS GLORY is a mare
Going up a mile in distance

Some of these look underraced 

RAGIN CAJUN
OSKAR HIGH
FLEMENORA
OH'HEREWEGO

KEEFFELEE lacks positives
SOVEREIGN DUKE likewise
INCHIDALY ROBIN is too raw
GLORIOUS SINGER beatable
GENDARME is hard to like
Having downgraded stables

MEEHALL could be the one
But well beaten in a recent chase

STELLAR SYMPHONY is a mare 
Fit in form and very shortlistable 
There is a case for her each way
There is a case for a place saver
   
DUNLEER PHOENIX is a positive
He has been running himself fit
Bred to enjoy this extra distance

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet DUNLEER PHOENIX 7/1-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet STELLAR SYMPHONY 5/4








Ayr 2.50

4/1 Queen Me, 9/2 Marine Wave, 11/2 Aussie Girl
6/1 Funny Story, 7/1 Pink Crystal, 8/1 Sophia's Starlight
9/1 Secret Angel, 12/1  Perdika 25/1 Radio Goo Goo,
33/1 Rum Cocktail  50/1 Silent Words
100/1 Sweet Harmony.

5f Listed race (Fillies)
 
Given ground and field size
I'd be nervous about horses
Who are short of recent runs

PERDIKA has 1 run in 86 days

PINK CRYSTAL 2nd last season
Has raced just once in 98 days
 
RUM COCKTAIL is underraced
She has the worst of the draw 

QUEEN ME has 1 run in 91 days

The following are rated too low

SWEET HARMONY
SILENT WORDS  
RADIO GOO GOO 

SOPHIA'S STARLIGHT is a 3yo
No past winners dropped from 7f
Never run over a trip this short

MARINE WAVE has a chance
Just 1 race in the last 69 days
And in the same period of time
Others have been far busier

SECRET ANGEL is rated 97
Can't be out of it on her figures
But she has never run under 6f
And she is exposed for a 3yo
More runs than the 3yo winners

Best matches

FUNNY STORY
AUSSIE GIRL

No strong preference

Staking it with safety in mind

FUNNY STORY gets the verdict
Less exposed could improve yet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet FUNNY STORY 11/2--5/1

£5.00 Place Bet AUSSIE GIRL 1/1







Newbury 4.10

11/10 Aldaary, 9/2 Al Mubhir, 5/1 Biggles
12/1 Popmaster, 16/1 Rodaballo
16/1 The Wizard Of Eye, American Kestrel.

Dubai Duty Free Stakes

Listed race 7f

ALDAARY is top rated

William Haggas runs two

ALDAARY
AL MUBHIR

Both last ran at Goodwood

ALDAARY was 15/2 in a Group 1 
AL MUBHIR was 25/1 in a handicap
That and their official ratings suggest
ALDAARY is a more likely winner
Going to place him in a saver bet 

BIGGLES ran well only 6 days ago
Could that help on the heavy ground ?
Possibly not enough had his profile
To know either way what to expect
But worth a risk in a split stake bet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet BIGGLES 13/2-6/1

£5.00 Win Bet ALDAARY 1/1-10/11








Ayr 5.10

4/1 Valley Of Flowers, 7/1 Annandale, 7/1 Glasses Up
8/1 Belle Of Annandale, 8/1 Bobby Shaftoe, 9/1 Fairmac
10/1 Clansman, Optician, Well Planted, 12/1 Golden Valour
12/1 Lochnaver, 14/1 Crystal Guard.

Handicap 1m 5f

This is a vicious race

Not keen on the high weights

All seem to have some flaws

FAIRMAC has topweight
Stall 1 may not be a good draw
Similar handicaps over this trip
Stall 1 has a 0-38 record so far
Sharp early bend likely reason

GLASSES UP smells fancied
But he is the oldest horse (8)
Dropping down from 18f to 13f
That 5 furlong drop for an 8yo
Sounds a bit extreme to me

ANNANDALE is a highweight
Just 1 run in 109 days now
Every past winner aged 5 +
Had at least 3 previous runs
In the same period he has 1

BOBBY SHAFTOE fails this
Racing just twice in 6 months

VALLEY OF FLOWERS a 5yo
Won this handicap last season
But older and more exposed
Has a longer absence as well
Not as convincing this season
Especially on softer ground

Horses with over 16 runs
Absent more than 22 days
Have a 0-24 record in this   
VALLEY OF FLOWERS fails 

BELLE OF ANNANDALE a filly
Comes here from a hurdle race
Might win but a bit unorthodox
No past winners was drawn 11 +
WELL PLANTED is similar
In that he comes from hurdles
Can't rule him out but not ideal

CLANSMAN could be a threat
But little promise last time out 
 
CRYSTAL GUARD is a 5yo
Exposed and rated just 53
Will he have enough class
Never won beyond Class 6
One of the fitter profiles

LOCHNAVER is like him
Exposed low rated 5 year old
Who's never won in this class

Shortlist

GOLDEN VALOUR 12/1

OPTICIAN 11/1
 
GOLDEN VALOUR is modest
Last won 3 and a half years ago
But does have a very recent run 

OPTICIAN is very interesting
The 3 year old winners of this
Had 3 10 10 10 14 career runs
OPTICIAN is perfect with 10
He also comes from the race
The 2016 winner ran in before
Not everything is rosy though
And his sire is still unproven 
Never bred a winner past 11f
Only 6 tried but all lost so far
 
Stall 12 looks a difficult draw
 
Go back to 1997
Ayr handicaps 1m 5f
Horses aged 3
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-42 record
OPTICIAN fails this angle
Going to reduce him to saver 

FAIRMAC another badly drawn
Gets the second saver status
A year ago over course/distance
He was in a far higher quality race
He is one that could outclass these


Selection

£4.00 Each Way GOLDEN VALOUR 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet OPTICIAN 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet FAIRMAC 8/1-7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

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