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York 1.50

INTRINSIC BOND 11/2 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Final Deliberations 

First of a set of 6 messages
Strong angles lots of choice
Expecting quality messages 
With luck and good staking
Every reason for confidence

Like the message

Mainly York previews

Had 3 possible bets

Decided on the first race


York 1.50

INTRINSIC BOND 11/2 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

 
Biggest danger ?

Going off too fast

Maybe not handling track 

More chance of the former

Alligator Alley at 11/1

I have saved on this horse

Mainly an emotional saver

Have some history with him

Too painful to see him win

Not an official saver though

Just my own strategy here






Preview Selections

 
York 1.50
Intrinsic Bond 11/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

York 2.25
£7.50 Win Bet Cogitate 100/30-3/1
£1.50 Win Bet Loose Cannon 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Hot Fuss  9/1-10/1

Carlisle 3.15
£8.00 Win Bet Reginald Charles 8/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet B Associates 8/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Happier 8/1-9/1

York 4.10 
£4.00 Each Way Tronador 13/2-7/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Robert Johnson 9/2-5/1 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

York 4.45
£5.00 Win Bet Pillow Talk 11/2
£5.00 Place Bet Pinafore 4/5 (1-2-3-4)
 
York 5.20
£3.75 Each Way Zoulu Chief 8/1 
£2.50 Place Bet Bobsleigh 3/1 (1-2-3-4)







PROFILES & PREVIEWS    
  


York 1.50

11/2 Intrinsic Bond, 8/1 Jm Jungle, 8/1 Korker
10/1 Alligator Alley, 10/1 Equilateral, 10/1 Manila Scouse,
10/1 Mondammej, 12/1 Bergerac, 14/1 Copper Knight
14/1 Makanah, Ventura Express, 16/1 Looking For Lynda
16/1 Nomadic Empire, Vintage Clarets, 20/1 Kuwait City
20/1 Michaela's Boy, 25/1 Ancient Times, Shalaa Asker
33/1 One Night Stand, 40/1 Dig Two.
   
5f Handicap
 
15 Past renewals 

Every one of them
Ran within 25 days

KORKER does not off 47 days
 
Go back to 1997
Every similar 5f handicap here
Run at any time of the season
Horses rated 101 or more
Absent more than 24 days
Have a 0-42 record in them
KORKER fails this statistic
 
ONE NIGHT STAND 54 days off
DIG TWO has 51 days absence
Neither have enough positives

Horses aged 3 
Have a 0-23 record in this  

August
5f Handicaps 
Class 2 races
More than 10 runners 
Horses aged 3
Have a poor record  

Since 2007 they are 0-58

Since 1997
Horses aged 3
With over 8 runs
Have a 0-58 record in them 
Opposing these 3 year olds

MICHAELA'S BOY
LOOKING FOR LYNDA
KUWAIT CITY
JM JUNGLE

JM JUNGLE has stall 19 today
All past winners in drawn 2-17

York 5f races
Since 2011
Horses drawn 17 or higher
Have a poor 3-163 record  
Those absent over 11 days
Have a 0-124 record in them
The following horses fail this

JM JUNGLE
MAKAHAH
MANILA SCOUSE 

MANILA SCOUSE just fails
Could easily forgive him that 
But horses aged 4 like him
Have a 3-74 record in this 
All 3 winners dropped in trip

Horses aged 4 
Coming from a 5f race
Have a 0-42 record in this race
The following horses fail this
MANILA SCOUSE 
KORKER

York
Every 5f race
Since 1997
Horses aged 4
Drawn 17 or higher
Have a 0-59 record
MANILA SCOUSE fails this too

ANCIENT TIMES ran 3 days ago
Beaten 10 lengths feels too far
Especially with a problem draw
NOMADIC EMPIRE ran 5 days ago
Beaten 39 lengths is a problem too
Badly missed the break that day
But it was 2 grades lower than this

Older horses can win
But they don't score well

Go back to 1998
August
5f Handicaps 
Class 2 races
With over 8 runners
Horses aged 8 or more
Carrying 9st 1lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in them
EQUILATERAL has this profile

Go back  to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Rated 97 or higher
Absent over 9 days
Drawn 6 or higher
Return a 0-51 record
EQUILATERAL has this profile

Go back to 2007 
August to November
All class 2 Handicaps
Run between 5f and 9f
With over 10 runners
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Have a poor 1-210 record 
Those aged 8 or more 0-87
EQUILATERAL fails this

BEGERAC won this last year
Not in a good enough place

MONDAMMEJ is a 6 year old
Exposed type never won any race
In a field of more than 10 horses
This is also very interesting

Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 17 days
Drawn in stalls 1-2
Have a 0-48 record in them
MONDAMMEJ fails this angle

SHALAA SAKER is a 5 year old
Very exposed with 43 runs now
Yet never won over this trip
Never won off his current mark
Never won in this class before
All his best figures are at 6f
Felt too much was against him

VENTURE EXPRESS is a 6yo
Could have been better drawn
But has a recent run on side
Yet to win in this class though
Or off his handicap mark too
He is also coming up 2 grades 
Something no past winner did


Possibles

ALLIGATOR ALLEY is a 6yo
Been a huge eyecatcher lately
Not least in the Epsom Dash
Convinced he can hack up soon
Could win a race at any stage
What bothers me most about him
Just the 1 run now in 66 days

Past renewals show
Horses with 1 run
In the previous 2 months
Won just 1 of 15 renewals
Horses aged 4 or more
With just 1 run in 2 months
Have a 0-20 record in this
ALLIGATOR ALLEY shares this
Not a dealbreaker statistic
But several of his rivals here
Ran 3-4 times in the same time
That he has raced just once
 
COPPER KNIGHT is an 9yo 
Has won this race as a 7yo
Obviously dislike 9 year olds
But he has a very recent run
He's tumbled down handicap
My angles say shortlist him
 
VINTAGE CLARETS is a 4yo 
Has some smart runs this year
Some career bests along way
Has he gone off the boil a bit ?
Hard to know but 4 year olds
Are just 3-74 in this handicap
They were all less exposed
They were all drawn lower too

Since 1997
York 5f Handicaps
Horses aged 4
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-74 record
VINTAGE CLARETS is drawn 15

INTRINSIC BOND is a 6 year old
Exposed with 39 career starts now
But 2 runs ago upgraded stables
His career best racing post ratings
Were in his last 2 runs since that
That does feel quite significant
He has never won off this mark
He has strangely never ran here
But felt he was the safest choice

Last time Racing Post Ratings

Korker and Intrinsic Bond
Are miles clear of the rest
Korker fails a generic stat


Selection

INTRINSIC BOND 11/2 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







 
York 2.25

9/4 Ballymount Boy, 100/30 Cogitate
7/2 Edwardian, 7/1 Loose Cannon
15/2 Indian Run 10/1 Hot Fuss.
    
Acomb Stakes

7f Group race (2yo)

Messy race

Small stakes the best plan

EDWARDIAN comes up from 5f

Horses coming from 6f or less
Have a 0-41 record in this race
Never mind coming from just 5f
Aidan trains it is a smaller field
So no surprise if he does win it
But coming up 2f he shouldn't
 
Other horses up in distance

BALLYMOUNT BOY
INDIAN RUN
 
Best Profile

Colts
Coming from 7f or more
From class 2 or lower
Under 5 career runs
Starting under 20/1 last time
13 Past renewals since 2009
Horses with this profile 14-62
 
3 horses have this profile
Small stakes covering all 3

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet COGITATE 100/30-3/1

£1.50 Win Bet LOOSE CANNON 7/1

£1.00 Win Bet HOT FUSS 9/1-10/1

Carlisle 3.15

11/4 Elusive Angel, 6/1 Hour By Hour
13/2 Creative Style, 7/1 Hougoumont, 8/1 Mersea
10/1 Reginald Charles, Signora Camacho, 11/1 B Associates
11/1 Happier, 20/1 Naval Academy, We'renotreallyhere
25/1 Pocket The Packet.

3yo Handicap 6f

Not spending much time here

Expecting to lose but you never know

ELUSIVE ANGEL a filly is the favourite
Expected to make her a negative here
But I can't she is like a past winner

HOUGOUMONT is not though
Just the one 1 run in 74 days now
May go and win unlucky last time
But my angles are not convinced
SIGNORA CAMACHO has similarities
Opposing him with lack of recent runs

Normally wouldn't touch the race

REGINALD CHARLES

Few things I dislike about him
Bottomweight being one of them

He has a 0-10 career record

The question to ask

Does he stay 7 furlongs ?

If he does he will probably lose

But if he doesn't fully stay 7f
Them you have many excuses
For several of his recent races

First time out at Beverley
Extended 7f on soft ground

Next run over a mile at this track

His 3rd run of the year again here
Was over 7f on softer ground
He led from the worst stall there
Blatantly went off far too quickly
He was miles clear most of the way

York came next over 6 furlongs
Bad draw and ran a fine 3rd place

Racing Post reported said after

" Never far away, was traveling as well 
  as anything entering the last couple 
  of furlongs and had every chance. 
  He is still a maiden, but it's surely only
  a matter of time before he finds a race.

I'd agree with that

Last time again over 7f
He had the worst draw 
Missed the break as well 
Now down to 6 furlongs 
If he doesn't stay 7 furlongs
This looks his opportunity

Rather than go each way

Throwing in two saver bets

Who also have recent excuses

Selection
 
£8.00 Win Bet REGINALD CHARLES 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet B ASSOCIATES 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet HAPPIER 8/1-9/1








York 4.10

11/2 Robert Johnson, 11/2 Zanndabad
6/1 Aztec Empire 6/1 Grappa Nonino, 8/1 Tronador
10/1 Haliphon 12/1 Solent Gateway, 14/1 Forza Orta
14/1 Green Team 14/1 Themaxwecan, 16/1 Mostly Sunny
18/1 Charging Thunder, 25/1 La Pulga, 28/1 First Emperor.

2m Handicap

14 Past renewals

Signs that the race is changing
Older horses are doing better 

Opposing the following horses

THEMAXWECAN is a 7yo
Not keen on absence or draw

All 14 past winners
Ran in the previous 70 days

ZANNDABAD has 87 days off
Looks underraced this season
If you look at his sires record
Horses sired by Iffraaj
Running in class 2 or higher
Have not yet won past 1m 6f
 
Against these horses
With heavy recent defeats

FIRST EMPEROR 
CHARGING THUNDER 

LA PULGA is included in this
If you look at his sire Kodiac
His sire has bred 2m winners
None won though in this class 
Those running in class 4 or more
Have not won past 1m 7f (0-15)

MOSTLY SUNNY ran 19 days ago
Thrashed by 122 lengths that day

GREEN TEAM is a 4yo
Not too safe on sire statistics

Horses aged 4
More than 4 career starts
Coming from 1m 7f or shorter
Have a 0-38 record in this

GREEN TEAM has this profile
LA PULGA also shares this

GRAPPA NONINO also fails
Dermot Weld's young improver
Comes here after a recent win
He will have many supporters
But he fails the 0-38 statistic
And a couple of other problems

July August September
Handicaps over 2m +
With over 5 runners
Horses aged 4
15 or more career starts
Coming from 1m 7f or shorter
Running within 17 days
Return a 0-61 record 
GRAPPA NONINO shares this

My other problem with him
He is drawn in stat 14 of 14
What limited evidence there is
Suggests that's the worst draw

HAPIPHON is a 6 year old
Not for me sired by Showcasing
All the sire's runners on Grass
Running over 1m 6f or more
Produce a 0-14 record so far
His runners in Class 3 or higher
Have not won yet beyond 12f
Every chance he wont get ho,e

SOLENT GATEWAY has a chance
But one of two niggles about him 

No winners came from stall 1
If you look at his career record
All his wins were in small fields
He is 0-19 in fields of 8 or more
He is 0-18 absent over 18 days
Never won off his current rating
He has to overcome all of these
With the burden of topweight too
No horse has won with 9st 9lbs +

That leaves 3 horses

These are in order of preference

1) ROBERT JOHNSON
2) TRONADOR 
3) AZTEC EMPIRE

TRONADOR has to prove stamina
Given a race in this sort of class
Did enough last time over 2m 4f
To be optimistic that he should do  

AZTEC EMPIRE looks quite sexy
But a 4 year old with just 9 runs 
I would have liked a couple more 

Horses aged 4
Under 12 career runs
Have a 2-26 record in this
None had 9st or more (0-8)
He has to carry 9st 7lbs
Looks a potential winner
But not without some flaws
 
ROBERT JOHNSON is a 5yo
Comes from Goodwood over 2m 4f
Similar profile to one past winner
Similar to two recent runner ups
Positive and safe looking profile

Staking is a problem

Would like to bet all 3 horses

Equally there are 4 places

TRONADOR is the best price
But he is also a hold up horse
That could need luck in running
 
Dutching the race 

Not sure that's the safer way

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet ROBERT JOHNSON 11/2

£2.00 Win Bet AZTEC EMPIRE 5/1 

£1.50 Win Bet TRONADOR 13/2-7/1








York 4.45

7/2 Pinafore, 9/2 Designer, 13/2 Pillow Talk
8/1 Marine Wave, 9/1 Kimngrace, Radio Goo Goo
10/1 Cruise, 12/1 Thunder Star, 14/1 Lady Hamana
16/1 Star Of Lady M, 20/1 Coralillo, Rage Of Bamby
20/1 Woolhampton, 33/1 Vadamiah.

Fillies Handicap 5f

Not enough past renewals

No similar races elsewhere
And too unorthodox a race 
To spend much time on it
Will have to be a guess

One angle interests me

Go back to 2005
York 5f handicaps
With over 9 runners
Horses drawn 1
Have a 0-72 record

PINNAFORE is drawn 1

Some won before that
In a generally poor record
Just felt her draw was weak

DESIGNER in contrast
Has the widest draw in stall 14

Go back to 1998

York 5f handicaps
With under 15 runners
Horses aged 4 or more
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 1-43 record so far

Those aged 4 or more
Absent more than 6 days
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 1-58 record
DESIGNER next to try

Just not happy with either
Coming from the outside stalls
 
Going to split stake this

I had 2 possible savers

KIMNGRACE
RADIO GOO GOO

But all past winners
Had a few weeks off the track
And I prefer a win/place bet

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet PILLOW TALK 11/2

£5.00 Place Bet PINAFORE 4/5 (1-2-3-4)

 




York 5.20

9/2 Starlust, 13/2 Blue Prince, 7/1 Zabriskie Point
9/1 Zoulu Chief, 11/1 Bobsleigh 11/1 Red Zone Hero
11/1 Ziggy's Queen, 12/1 Jungle Mate 14/1 Specific Times
16/1 Mayo Neighs, Room Service 20/1 Barnwell Boy
20/1 Ganesha, 20/1 Key To Cotai, 25/1 Innvincible Friend
66/1 Ticktyboo.
 
6f Nursery

Past renewals since 2004
Horses drawn 15 or higher
Have a 0-53 record in the race
 
York 6f races
Since 2013
Horses drawn 15 or more 
Having under 5 runs
Have a winless 0-91 record
The following all fail this 
 
KEY TO COTAI drawn 20
TICKITYBOO (19)
ZIGGY'S QUEEN (17) 
BLUE PRINCE (18)

SPECIFIC TIMES is a filly
Did not do enough last time

BARNWELL BOY last time
Was beaten a long 24 lengths
That was in a Group race
But horses from pattern races
And horses beaten so far 
Have a poor record in this race

ROOM SERVICE has 74 days off
Go back to the 2002 renewal
Horses absent over 30 days
Have a 0-62 record since then 
ROOM SERVICE fails this angle 
ZIGGY'S QUEEN fails this angle
MAYO NEIGHS has 46 days off

No past winners of this
Came from Conditions races
All 27 that tried were beaten
JUNGLE MATE is doing this
He has a higher draw in stall 15
That any of the last 21 winners

If you go back to 1998

York 6f handicaps
Horses with under 4 runs
Drawn in stall 14 or higher
Have a weak 1-51 record
Those with 8st 4lbs or more
Have a 0-45 record in them
JUNGLE MATE fails this stat

INVINCIBLE FRIEND last time out
Also ran in a conditions race
Not for me and drawn in stall 1
All 21 horses drawn 1 failed

GANESHAS is hard to read
Had winners with under 5 runs
Had winners with over 5 runs
Those like him with 5 are 0-50
Could just be a statistical blip 
But horses with over 3 races
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Absent more than 10 days
Have a poor 1-70 record in this
Those beaten last time 0-41
GANESHAS shares this profile 


Possibles

ZABRISKIE POINT has 2 runs
3 winners had under 3 runs
None running within 20 days
All 12 that tried were beaten 
Similar Nurseries in August
Horses with under 3 races
Running within 16 days
Have a 0-18 record so far
Not a negative but no horse
Won a similar race like him

STARLUST has 4 career runs
Comes from the 6f nursery
Run at Glorious Goodwood 
Horses from that nursery
With 4 or more career races
Have a 1-31 record in this race

RED ZONE HERO has 3 runs
Nothing wrong with his profile

ZOULU CHIEF won last time
That was only a Class 4 race
Previous renewals show us
Horses with over 3 career runs
Coming from Class 4 or lower
Have a poor 1-66 record
ZOULU CHIEF fails this angle
The 2017 winner managed it
The recent run compensates

BOBSLEIGH has topweight 
Maybe asking a lot 9st 9lbs
No past winner had as much
But he is the class horse here
If I am right about negatives
He faces a manageable task
Dropping down from a Group 2
The 2013 winner of this race
Came from the same race 

Maybe a place is more likely

But a big price and 4 places

Going to compromise here


Selection

£3.75 Each Way ZOULU CHIEF 8/1
 
£2.50 Place Bet BOBSLEIGH 3/1 (1-2-3-4)








 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES   


Saturday

Ebor Handicap

Just a few race statistics below

Had a look at some of the issues

Expecting one of 4 horses to win

Probably go win bet and 2 savers

Assuming nothing much changes

Ante Post Statistics

Saturday
 
August 26th

York 3.35

Ebor Handicap
 
4/1 Sweet William, 7/1 Absurde, 8/1 Real Dream
9/1 Live Your Dream, 12/1 Jackfinbar, 14/1 Scampi
14/1 Scriptwriter, 16/1 Adjuvant, 16/1 Chillingham
16/1 Nusret, 16/1 Yashin, 20/1 Calling The Wind
20/1 Hms President, 20/1 Wootton'sun, 20/1 Zoffman
25/1 Cemhaan, 25/1 Enfranchise, 25/1 Moracana
25/1 Ocean Wind, Post Impressionist, 25/1 Saratoga Gold
25/1 Tashkhan, 28/1 Caius Chorister, 28/1 Get Shirty
28/1 Sunchart, 33/1 Berkshire Rocco, 33/1 Euchen Glen
33/1 Law Of The Sea, 40/1 Toshizou, 40/1 Zinc White
50/1 Enemy, 50/1 Faylaq, 50/1 Wickywickywheels
66/1 Blow Your Horn, 66/1 Charging Thunder
66/1 Dark Jedi, 66/1 East Asia, 66/1 Forza Orta
66/1 Geremia
 
Recent increase in prize money
So covering the recent renewals

Need a Group 2 horse to win
Most probably is unexposed 
Coming from a top class yard

 
The last 11 winners
Had these official Ratings

101 108 108 108 109 
103 103 99 106 98 101

Horses rated 97 or less
Have not won this race
Although only 13 have tried

Go back to 1980
No horse has won this race
When aged 8 or older

Horses with 1 run that season
Quite often win this handicap
But none did with over 8 races
 
Go back to 2007
Horses with over 3 runs
In the previous 12 weeks
Have a 0-44 record in this
And could be overraced
 
Horses aged 4
Have a very modest 5-196 record
Those with over 12 runs are 0-64
Those with under 6 runs are 0-22

Horses aged 4
Running within 5 weeks
Have a poor 2-109 record
Those from Class 2 or lower
Have a 1-65 record in this
 
The last 10 renewals show
Horses with over 18 runs
Have a poor 1-61 record

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