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Today's Message   

Navan dominates this one 
National hunt cards limited
Just too many small fields

Lingfield looks typically toxic
Staying with the Irish card
So it is a lop sided message




 
Today's Best Bet 

Navan 2.15 

£8.00 Win Bet TAWAAZON 9/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Bet PULSE OF SHANGHAI 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELANORA 11/1


Compromised on this race
Seriously considered him
As an account bet each way
Without the two saver bets

But the stable run two horses
Both of these make my staking
He is very weak in the betting

And he is one of those horses
You can make both a good case
But also a negative case as well

The market predicts I am wrong
I think he will win despite that
But will not risk him each way
When he is drifting out so fast

So I have backed off staking him
Would have gone each way 9/2
Instead making him the best bet
But win only and with two savers 


There were two split stake bets

That also looked possible options


Navan 2.50 
£5.00 Win Bet Taipan 5/1 
£5.00 Win Bet French Claim 4/5
 
Navan 4.00
£6.00 Win Bet Sixpack 5/1
£4.00 Win Bet Gooloogong 5/4-11/8 





Today's Best Bet
  
Navan 2.15 

£8.00 Win Bet TAWAAZON 9/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Bet PULSE OF SHANGHAI 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELANORA 11/1




Several meetings tomorrow

All of them are National Hunt

But enough to find something







Preview Selections
 
Navan 2.15 
£8.00 Win Bet Tawaazon 9/2-5/1
£1.00 Win Bet Pulse Of Shanghai 16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Elanora11/1
 
Navan 2.50 
£5.00 Win Bet Taipan 5/1 
£5.00 Win Bet French Claim 4/5

Navan 3.25
£3.00 Each Way Magnetic North 20/1-18/1
£3.00 Win Bet Vee Dancer 11/4
£1.00 Win Bet Big Kitten 33/1

Navan 4.00
£6.00 Win Bet Sixpack 5/1
£4.00 Win Bet Gooloogong 5/4-11/8 

Navan 4.35
£3.00 Each Way Tea Olive 8/1
£2.00 Each Way Samhradh 16/1







Yesterday's Summary 
 
Short two preview message
Better effort with a place bet
Alongside an easy 3/1 winner
Basically just about repaired
Those two losers on Monday
We finished just about level
Over those two quieter days





PROFILES & PREVIEWS 



Navan 2.15
 
4/1 Seeingisbelieving, Tawaazon, 11/2 Mogwli
8/1 Elanora, 8/1 It'll Do My Day,  8/1 Teddy Boy
10/1 Pulse Of Shanghai, 12/1 Conversant, 12/1 Hot Whispers
12/1 Let's Believe, Zig Zag Zyggy, 14/1 Hot Sunset
16/1 Gallow Hill 20/1 Ecclesiastical, 25/1 Samrogue
33/1 Peerless, 40/1 It's All A Joke
66/1 Midnight Treasure.

5f Handicap

TAWAAZON

The class horse off topweight

The fittest horse in the race

You can look at him in two ways

On the negative side

He has a big weight of 10st 4lbs
Tries to win a big field handicap
On heavy ground with that weight
When his record seems to suggest
He is a better horse on the sand

That narrative is why he is 9/2-4/1
Rather than why he is much shorter


On the positive side

His fitness and class

His last time out figure

Give him a clear edge

Whilst that was done on the sand
And he has a 0-11 record on grass
I don't believe he is a sand horse
His turf runs were quite excusable
Several of them were as a 2 year old
He does not seem to stay 7f on turf
Which excuses several more races

If I am right about his turf form
You have a horse who last time out
Won with a Racing Post Rating of 90
Running off a turf rating of only 67 

If you look the higher weights
Many of these may be on the bounce

MOGWLI ran only 4 days ago
Coming back so quickly after 168 days off
He failed in last years race doing just that
I would argue he probably bounced then
And could easily do the same in this race

Several others have the same problem
Very recent runs following long absences

IT'LL DO MY DAY has this problem
Returning 4 days after 262 days break

SEEINGISBELIEVING in the same boat
Returning 4 days after 178 days break

HOT SUNSET has this pattern too
Returning 4 days after 150 days break

CONVERSANT has a similar profile
Returning 4 days after 157 days break
He is drawn a bit higher than ideal too

PEERLESS is quite similar
Wanted more from his seasonal debut
ZIG ZAG ZIGGY is resistible drawn 19

Navan 5f handicaps

Any class of race
Any time of year

Female horses
With over 7 career runs
Absent more than 6 weeks
Return a 0-69 record in them all
The following pair have this profile

HOT WHISPERS
GALLOW HILL 

HOT WHISPERS is a filly first time out
From a yard with a poor absence record
GALLOW HILL is a 4yo filly off 270 days

LET'S BELIEVE is a mare first time out
Unorthodox as a 5yo with just 5 races

TEDDY BOY is an 8yo running well
But he is ageing and lime many limited
 
ELANORA an older mare
Has raced once this season
Would have liked a better run
But could not rule her out here
Her trainers record is very poor
With all of his long absent horses
So she will have needed last time

PULSE OF SHANGHAI is respected
Drifting but would not shock me if winning
Never ran on soft-heavy over 5f before
 
 
TAWAAZON

One of those types

Who could win this easily 

Or find a combination of factors 
Just a bit too difficult to manage

In the former camp myself

Expecting him to win this race

Selection  

£8.00 Win Bet TAWAAZON 9/2-4/1

£1.00 Win Bet PULSE OF SHANGHAI 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet ELANORA 11/1

 






Navan 2.50

5/4 French Claim, 11/8 Okita Soushi
8/1 Taipan 10/1 Phoenix Cowboy
16/1 Oriental Eagle, 33/1 Kingswear.

Stakes race 1m 6f

FRENCH CLAIM is odds on

Overall that is probably fair

Highest rated horse in this
Several have long absences 
ORIENTAL EAGLE one of them
With a shocking 1015 days off

He faces others with problems
OKITA SOUSHI from Joseph O'Brien
May well prefer some faster ground
And is said to have other targets
 
FRENCH CLAIM looks a safer bet
But he is not without some criticism 

Will be stay 1m 6f on soft ground ?
He has not proven he cam just yet

His sire French Fifteen was a miler

If you look at his offspring so far
None have won beyond 10f yet
All 23 that tried this were beaten
His sire never won beyond a mile
And twice has speed to win at 5f

Most likely winner
But can not assume he will stay
Options limited with 6 runners
Going for a split stake bet here

TAIPAN has some decent form
If he does not stay 2 miles well
Then many runs he had last year
Start to look very excusable 

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet TAIPAN 5/1 

£5.00 Win Bet FRENCH CLAIM 4/5







Navan 3.25

3/1 Vee Dancer, 4/1 Secret Rock, 13/2 Paradise Lost
7/1 Black Hawk Eagle, 8/1 Stellify, 10/1 All In Peder
12/1 Arcland, 12/1 Itsalonglongroad, 12/1 Walnut Beach
14/1 Hi Stranger, 14/1 Kalmira, 16/1 Magnetic North
20/1 Siofra, 25/1 Big Kitten, 33/1 Red Vermillion.

Handicap 1m 5f

Not easy but interesting

As there are a few angles

Go back to 2018
Handicaps over 1m 5f here
Horses draw 13 or higher
Have a 0-68 record in them

High draws are disadvantaged
BLACK HAWK EAGLE is a 5yo
Seems fancied but drawn 15/15
That may not help his challenge
ARCLAND has a difficult draw
ITSALONGLONG ROAD does too

March and April
Navan
1m 5f handicaps
Horses aged 4
Have a 0-49 record in them

The 4yo record is poor
Makes me question these 

PARADISE LOST is a 4yo
Last seen in a maiden hurdle
ALL IN PEDER is also a 4yo
He faces 273 days absence 
Not sure to stay first time out
SECREY ROCK is another 4yo
Won a hurdle race last time out
Could win but all 49 his age lost

March and April
Navan
1m 5f handicaps
Seasonal debutants 
Have a 0-31 record in them
The following horses fail this

ALL IN PEDER
HI STRANGER
KALMIRA
BLACK HAWK EAGLE

Most likely profile to take this
Would be a fitter older horse

SIOFRA was hard to commit to
He didn't do enough last time
RED VERMILLION hard to like
BIT KITTEN lacks positives
WALNUT BEACH has 92 days off
Ridden by an inexperienced jockey
STELLIFY makes limited appeal

MAGNETIC NORTH

8yo ran in this last season
I would see him as a positive

BIG KITTEN a 33/1outsider
May just relish this distance
Unlikely but thrown in on old form

VEE DANCER might win
But an 8yo absent 6 weeks
Having raced once this year
There are holes in his profile

But unexposed and a smart yard
And he won comfortable last time
Could make him the saver bet

Selection

£3.00 Each Way MAGNETIC NORTH 18/1-20/1

£3.00 Win Bet VEE DANCER 11/4

£1.00 Win Bet BIG KITTEN 33/1






Navan 4.00

11/8 Gooloogong, 7/2 Young Ireland, 9/2 Nation's Call
13/2 Hijo De La Luna, 8/1 King Leodegrance, 12/1 Sixpack
25/1 Colorado River, 33/1 Rough And Tough, 50/1 Fratas
50/1 Whisky On The Hill, 66/1 Arrow Straight, Atlantic Charter.

Maiden race 10f
 

Have to guess here

Opposing these horses

KING LEODEGRANCE
Looks Aidan's second string

NATIONS TALL first time out
May be trained by a legend
But a stable in decline now

HIJA DE LA LUNA unraced
Could win but not first choice

GOOLOOGONG from Aidan
Feels a sensible saver bet

SIXPACK

Like him as the main selection

Raced once as a 2 year old

Johnny Murtagh his trainer
Has a poor record with debutants

His unraced 2 year olds
Running over a mile or more
Have a 0-42 record so far
SIXPACK fails that on debut
A performance we can upgrade

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SIXPACK 5/1

£4.00 Win Bet GOOLOOGONG 6/4 






Navan 4.35

6/4 Duke Of Leggagh, 11/2 Tea Olive, 8/1 Grey Fable
8/1  Unchained Melody, 10/1 Florida Taiga, Slaney Tide
10/1 Timely Boost, 14/1 Sapristi, 16/1 He Knows When
16/1 Samhradh, 20/1 Glyde Ranger.

10f Handicap

Real paradox here

DUKE OF LEGGAGH a short price
Has one horrible dangerous profile 
But nothing appeals much to beat him

First of all he may bounce
Coming back quickly just 3 days
After a lengthy 146 day absence

He is also stepping up 3f in trip
And comes from an unsafe sire

Several fail breeding stats

Sire has no winners
Over this far on softer ground
With an absence as well
Horses that fall foul of that

GREY FABLE
HE KNOWS WHEN
DUKE OF LEGGAGH 
GLYDE RANGER
SAPRISTI

Going with a speculative bet

Following market signals

With some breeding stats

Selection

£3.00 Each Way TEA OLIVE 8/1

£2.00 Each Way SAMHRADH 16/1

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