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Favourite Bet (s)

Newmarket 5.20  
£5.00 Win Bet Bling On The Music 10/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Bodorgan  4/5 
 
Leopardstown 5.45  
£8.00 Win Bet Tough Talk 11/4-5/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Kings Time 4/1

Newbury 6.10
Dufresne 8/1-7/1
Each Way




   
Final Deliberations 
  

First of 3 higher quality days
Bogged down in large fields 
Finished up with 7 previews


Main problem with this message

The potential staked bet options

Have unsuitable staking for one

So there is no 1 stand out bet

 


Newmarket 3.00 
 
£3.50 Win Bet DARK THIRTY 33/1-40/1

£3.50 Win Bet ROUSING ENCORE 22/1-25/1

£1.50 Win Bet WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 6/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet QUINAULT 11/2-6/1


A race that may have provided one
Two outsiders and the 2 favourites
Was not too sure which to commit to
So gone for some pretty ugly staking
Because of the two big priced horses





Newmarket 5.20 

£5.00 Win BLING ON THE MUSIC 10/1-11/1

£5.00 Place Bet  BORDIGAN 10/11-1/1

Quite like the staking in this race
Bling On The Music is well treated
But he is not account bet strength
The place saver a good compliment
Rather than go for an each way bet



Leopardstown 5.45 

£8.00 Win Bet TOUGH TALK 11/4-5/2

£2.00 Win Bet KINGS TIME 4/1

Think there is a class edge here
It feels one of my better options
But will only be a bet around 2/1

 


Newbury 6.10

DUFRESNE 8/1-7/1

Each Way 

This race is partly guesswork 
Favourite fails a 23yr draw stat 
Felt this was the sensible bet
Hard to judge him or his rivals
He could be a complete mug bet
Or time may show he's a maximum
We just have no way of knowing


There is some meat in the message

I'd prefer one a nice cut of sirloin

But it is much more of a casserole 

No reason why it can not be tasty  

But it does lack that one leading bet






Preview Selections



Newmarket 1.50
Tower Of London 11/10
Win Bet
 
Newmarket 3.00
£3.50 Win Bet Dark Thirty 33/1-40/1
£3.50 Win Bet Rousing Encore 22/1-25/1
£1.50 Win Bet Washington Heights 6/1-11/2
£1.50 Win Bet Quinault 11/2-6/1

Downpatrick 3.15
The Folkes Tiara 5/4 
Win Bet

Downpatrick 5.00
£6.50 Win Bet  Lady Of The Vale 4/1 
£3.50 Win Bet Gortmillish 2/1
 
Newmarket 5.20 
£5.00 Win Bling On The Music 10/1-11/1
£5.00 Place Bet Bodorgan  10/11-1/1

Leopardstown 5.45 
£8.00 Win Bet Tough Talk 11/4-5/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Kings Time 4/1

Newbury 6.10
Dufresne 8/1-7/1
Each Way






Yesterday's Summary 

Started off with a decent winner
Disappointed with it afterwards 
Apart from the Tennis of course
Ona Jabeur was so impressive
She plays in today's semi final
You could now hedge her 5/2
Whatever decision you make
When the final arrives Saturday
We will be on the odds on fav 
Not bothered hedging it myself
Western Cape was frustrating
Looked all set for an easy place
But caught in the closing stages
Suspect he went off too quickly
And his stamina gave out late
Ended up with a win and a place
After the first preview had won
Disappointed it crashed late on





PROFILES & PREVIEWS     





Newmarket 1.50

6/4 Tower Of London, 5/2 Saint George
7/2 Castle Way, 7/1 Klondike, 14/1 Land Legend
66/1 Think First

Bahrain Trophy Stakes

Group 3 race 1m 5f

KLONDIKE has 2 career runs
Past winners has the following
4 7 3 4 4 7 6 4 10 4 4 5 9 5 8
None won so inexperienced

CASTLE WAY has questions too 
Having raced just once this year

His sire is also unproven as well
His sires runners beyond 1m 2f
Running in Class 3 or more are 0-9
Inconclusive but none have won
And his chance of being the first
Maybe impacted being underraced
And by coming from a 1m 2f race
Only one past winner managed that

LAND LEGEND may just lack class
Looks too low on official ratings here
The race looks best left to 2 horses

SAINT GEORGE rated 109

Comes from the best trial 

TOWER OF LONDON

Aidan and also rated 109

Impossible to call with confident

TOWER OF LONDON if forced
Probably down to the two stables
You could actually bet them both

£6.00 Saint George 5/2
£4.00 Tower Of London 11/8-6/4

Saint George becomes a bet at 11/10 
Tower Of London returns most stakes  
Would not put anybody of that option
Don't really want to mess about here

TOWER OF LONDON just preferred
We backed him in the Ulster Derby
May just have more progression

Selection

TOWER OF LONDON 11/10

Win Bet






Newmarket 3.00

11/2 Washington Heights, 13/2 Frankness
7/1 Quinault 8/1 Mill Stream, 9/1 Eminency
9/1 Tough Enough, 10/1 Tajalla 11/1 Be Frank
12/1 Desert Cop, 14/1 Animate, 16/1 Rousing Encore
18/1 Executive Decision, Redemption Time
20/1 Alpha Capture, 25/1 Dark Thirty
66/1 Ferrous 



6f Handicap (3yo)



DESERT COP is topweight

Rated 107 may be a big ask

Past renewals show
Horses rated 97 or higher
Have a miserable 1-77 record
Those absent over 4 days
Had a 0-74 record in the race
DESERT COP has this profile
So to do the following horses

ALPHA CAPTURE rated 100
Has not raced in 131 days now

MILL STREAM is rated 99

TAJALLA is rated 97

One interesting statistic

Past renewals show

Horses with under 3 runs this year
Rated 88 or higher are 0-87 in this
The following horses all fail this

TAJALLA 
MILL STREAM
ALPHA CAPTURE 

FRANKNESS is well backed
But she's a filly from a 5f race

Go back to 2007
3yo Handicaps (6f)
Class 2 or higher
Any time of year  
With 7 or more runners  
Fillies from 5f races
Have a 0-62 record

FRANKNESS fails this 
EXECUTIVE DECISION does
 
Not an easy draw bias here 
Past winners were drawn 
14 16 12 20 8 19 3 15 16 15 3 14 
Draw statistics in this handicap
Suggest higher draws are best
BE FRANK may find stall 2 hard
He's going up 2 grades in class

If you go back to 2006 
Horses winning Handicaps
Run in Class 4 or lower last time
Have a 0-25 record in this race
BE FRANK fails this 0-25 angle

If you go back to 2006 
Horses with under 5 career runs
Running in the previous 3 months
Have a 0-35 record in this race
The following horses fail this

BE FRANK
TAJALLA 
TOUGH ENOUGH

You want a few runs this season

Horses with 1 run this year
Have a 0-44 record in this race
Horses with 2 runs this year
Have a miserable 1-75 record
The following horses fail this

BE FRANK
TAJALLA 
TOUGH ENOUGH 
MILL STREAM
EXECUTIVE DECISION 
ALPHA CAPTURE 
 
Horses with under 10 runs
Running within the last 19 days
Have a 0-60 record in this race

FERROUS fails this statistic
ANIMATE also fails this as well

REDEMPTION TIME is unsafe

EMINENCY has some positives
But how will Stall 5 treat him ?
Since the stalls were changed
Horses with under 10 career runs
Drawn in stalls 10 or lower
Have a 1-90 record in this race
EMINENCY has this to overcome
BE FRANK another failing this


Shortlist

DARK THIRTY 33/1

ROUSING ENCORE 22/1

QUINAULT 11/2
 
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 5/1


DARK THIRTY down from 8f
Would not be the safest choice
But in 1998 2007 and 2010
The winners just like he does
Came from the Brittania stakes
Much as they were lighter raced
At 33/1 he does have positives

ROUSING ENCORE is respected
Comes here after being gelded
Trainer states may need the run
But he could pop up at a big price

QUINAULT has won 5 in a row
Asking plenty to make it 6 wins
But statistically that's possible
 
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS
Beaten by him last time out
But only in a close photo finish
Could easily reverse that form

2 shorter prices

2 rank outsiders

Not sure what to do here

So going to a strange bet

 
Selection

£3.50 Win Bet DARK THIRTY 33/1-40/1

£3.50 Win Bet ROUSING ENCORE 22/1-25/1

£1.50 Win Bet WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 6/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet QUINAULT 11/2-6/1






Downpatrick 3.15

6/4 The Folkes Tiara, 11/2 Gino Drummer Boy
11/2 Now Is The Hour, 8/1 Irish Envoy, 12/1 Art Of Silence
12/1 Colonel Bellew, Farrokh, 14/1 Back To Toledo
14/1  Farewellchancer, 16/1 Liberty Flame, 20/1 J'adore Chas
33/1 Instinct De Loup, Mon Loulou, Temptation Time
50/1 Moneynabane.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 2f 

THE FOLKES TIARA is a 7yo

Sets a clear standard on figures

None of the others looked right
Never really know what you face
But has plenty of excuses so far
Started his career over long trips
May have been too far too early
He went chasing for a few races
Hurdles last time a career best
Overdue a win and well placed
No obvious threat I can identify

Selection

THE FOLKES TIARA  5/4-11/8

Win Bet




  


Downpatrick 5.00

13/8 Gortmillish, 100/30 Charlie Luciano
7/2 Stuzzikini, 4/1 Lisnamult Lad, 7/1 Lady Of The Vale
100/1 Crecerelle.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f

This is a 5 horse race

CHARLIE LUCIANO is a 4yo
He has the weakest profile
But any of the other 4 horses
Could win so we need a guess

CHARLIE LUCIANO won last time
That was only 5 days ago as well
Could be dangerous to oppose him
He may have a fitness edge here
And has won his last 3 hurdle runs

Fails the following statistic

Go back to 2012
Novice Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f or more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 4
Coming from 2m 1f or shorter
Running within the last 11 days
Have a 0-54 record in them all
CHARLIE LUCIANO fails this

Not keen on stepping up 5f
With such a recent run behind him

LISNAMAULT LAD is rejected
Mainly as he is least experience
And taking a big step up in trip

STUZZIKINI could be the one
But is he the stable number 2 ?

GORTMILLISH looks the No 1
He could easily win or bounce
Maybe best used as the saver
LADY OF THE VALE is a mare
Figures and fitness all positives
 
Selection

£6.50 Win Bet LADY OF THE VALE 4/1

£3.50 Win Bet GORTMILLISH 2/1







Newmarket 5.20

4/1 Glenfinnan, 5/1 Good Karma
6/1 Bodorgan 6/1 Darkness, 7/1 Titian
8/1 United Front, 9/1 Bling On The Music
9/1 Greatgadian, 12/1 Soar Above
14/1 Sirona.

8f Handicap

Horses aged 3 and 4
Have dominated this race

Horses aged 5 or more
Have a weak 2-81 record

They are 0-33 since 2011

Horses aged 5
Absent more than 24 days
Have a 0-18 record in this
The following horses fail

TITIAN
SOAR ABOVE
DARKNESS

No horse older than 4
Has won this going up in trip
SOAR ABOVE fails this
DARKNESS also fails this

GREATGADIAN is a 6yo
Topweight well beaten last time
Not a safe enough older profile 

UNITED FRONT is a 6yo
Not a good age but respected
Well handicapped on grass
Recent run harder to discount

GLENFINNIN has 3 runs
He has 301 days absence too

The only long absent winners
Were 4 year olds and he is a 3yo
No 3yo has won this handicap
When absent over 7 weeks
GLENFINNIN is not like a winner

BORDORGAN is a 3 year old
Main concern with his chance
Does he truly stay 8 furlongs
Twice this year unplaced at 8f
Opposed him last time over 8f
On the grounds he may not stay

SIRONA is a 3yo
He has 6 runs and 48 days off
Can not match him to a winner
Horses aged 3
More than 4 career starts
Absent more than 25 days
Have a 0-8 record in this
SIRONA has this profile

GOOD KARMA is a 3yo
No strong issues with his profile

BLING ON THE MUSIC a 4yo
Lightly raced he is no negative

He's had trouble settling
But went off too fast last time out

I'd be happier over 10f
But he is very well handicapped

Love the win price

Can not trust him each way
When he finds it hard to settle
So having a win and place bet
BORDIGAN might not stay
But think well enough to place
The 8f trip on the July course
Is about 4 seconds faster to run
Than the mile he ran at Sandown
Increases his chance of staying


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet BLING ON THE MUSIC 10/1-11/1

£5.00 Place Bet BORDIGAN 10/11-1/1






Leopardstown 5.45

 5/2 Artemis Jones, 7/2 Tough Talk,7/2 Encosta
9/2 Saturn Seven, 5/1 Kings Time, 8/1 Rumbled Again
10/1 Charming Lady,  25/1 Eyeeye.

TOUGH TALK

Top weight

Rated 90

Faces a small field of horses
Rated 83 79 78 77 76 76 75

Wouldn't argue he is well treated
But has an aura of class about him
Ran a really good race last time
When in much harder handicap
Not well draw trying to front run

The angle in this race

ARTEMIS JONES rated 83

If we can get her beaten
TOUGH TALK then faces
A very manageable 0-79 field

ARTEMIS JONES is a filly
She has raced only 3 times
The last run only 19 days ago

June July August
3yo Handicaps
Run over 5f 6f 7f
Class 3 and higher grade
Fillies with under 4 runs
Absent shorter than 27 days
Return a 0-42 record in them
ARTEMIS JONES fails this 

That makes the topweight

Look like he has a class edge

With room for a saver bet too

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet TOUGH TALK 11/4-5/2

£2.00 Win Bet KINGS TIME 4/1






Newbury 6.10

5/2 Haya Taal, 3/1 Al Shabab, 4/1 Doddie's Impact
8/1 Al Waasl, 14/1 Dufresne, Holy Rocket, Invincible Aura
20/1 George's Rascal, Port Hedland, 25/1 Clear Justice
25/1  Payment In Kind, Zola Power, 33/1 Mucho Macho
 50/1 Spanish Blaze.

2yo Novice 6f

DODDIE'S IMPACT

Backed into favourtism

Raced once 103 days ago

He has drawn stall 13 here

Go back 23 years

Newbury 6f races

Horses aged 2
Under 2 career starts
Drawn 13 or higher
Absent more than 12 days
Return a 0-71 record in them
DODDIE'S IMPACT fails this

Should be interesting to watch

But finding the right alternative
With many unraced types here
Seems quite a thankless task 

Have a to guess

DUFRENSE is mine
 
He ran ok at Chester
Not well draw in stall 1
Did not settle well early
But ran on nicely in the end

He was trying to win on debut
Over quite a testing 7f trip
No 2yo sired by Harry Angel
Has won over so far before
So this 6f may just suit him

Selection

DUFRENSE 8/1-7/1

Each Way

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