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Today's Message

Much calmer message today 
But unlike yesterday this one  
Has more quantity than quality
Some races maybe unnecessary
Not to say it's a poor message
It just feel less forensic overall

For the best bet in the message 
I have gone for a bigger price
Speculative non intensive bet
But has a fair chance and value

If I wanted to be more aggressive
And intended to attack the day
I would be suggesting this bet

Southwell 1.20 - Comedian Leader 13/8-6/4

Kelso 2.00 - Traprain Law 11/10

Each Way Double
 
Don't think that will get beaten


But I am going for this selection




Today's Best Bet
 
Punchestown 3.40 

BITE THAT 16/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


Hopeful rather than confident
But happy with the risk/reward





Preview Selections

Punchestown 12.40
£5.00 Win Bet Star Harbour 10/1
£4.00 Win Bet Tactical Move 5/4
£1.00 Win Bet San Martino 9/1

Southwell 12.50 
£7.50 Win Bet Hopeman Harbour 11/1-12/1
£1.50 Win Bet Revoquable 6/1-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet John The Baptist 10/1 

Punchestown 1.10
Sa Fureur 11/4-3/1
Each Way

Southwell 1.20
Comedian Leader 13/8-6/4
Win Bet

Punchestown 1.40
£7.50 Win Bet Light Parade 3/1-100/30
£2.50 Win Bet Carrig Carol 100/30-3/1

Kelso 2.00
Traprain Law 11/10
Win Bet
 
Punchestown 2.40 
£6.00 Win Bet Speed Gang 6/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Salmanino 6/4
 
Punchestown 3.40 
Bite That 16/1-14/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4






Underneath The Message    
 
 
The selections in the message
That I think are unnecessary
And worth small bets at best
Are the following previews

Punchestown 12.40
£5.00 Win Bet Star Harbour 10/1
£4.00 Win Bet Tactical Move 5/4
£1.00 Win Bet San Martino 9/1
 
Punchestown 1.10
Sa Fureur 11/4-3/1
Each Way 

Punchestown 1.40
£7.50 Win Bet Light Parade 3/1-100/30
£2.50 Win Bet Carrig Carol 100/30-3/1



The following races

I am more committed too

Quite like this race


Southwell 12.50 
£7.50  Win Bet HOPEMAN HARBOUR 11/1-12/1
£1.50 Win Bet REVOQUABLE 6/1-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet JOHN THE BAPTIST 10/1 

But the staking is not pretty
And no idea if good enough
Probably have a tenner here
Win bet on Hopeman Harbour


Southwell 1.20
COMEDIAN LEADER 13/8-6/4
Win Bet

Fittest horse in the race
Could have had a saver 
I don't plan to bet in this
Unless I can bet her at 2/1
In Betfair's each way market
Getting the price and 1-2-3
But would only be a small bet
That's how I would play it


Kelso 2.00 
TRAPLAIN LAW  11/10
Win Bet

Bit short but should win
Tempted in an each way double




Punchestown 2.40
£6.00 Win Bet SPEED GANG 6/1
£4.00 Win Bet SALAMINO 11/8-6/4

Think the saver might win this
But at the prices I've switched




Punchestown 3.40 

BITE THAT 16/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


Not the strongest selection
But by far the most rewarding
And I'd make him a 6/1 shot
£20 win will do enough for me








Yesterday's Summary   

It was quite an intense Saturday
Where 4 main races dominated
The other races inconsequential
Wasn't much in these at the end
The possible bets went P P P L
Grumpy Charley was the loser
Pleased I did not commit to him
It was the 1 race that I got wrong
GREEN GLORY fourth each way
Didn't think many could beat him
Pleased with that overall strategy 
In a 20 runner Lanzarote hurdle
Only 4 horses managed to finish
Which shows how tough it was
PIAFF BUBBLES won a saver
With the main selection second
Did nothing wrong with 1st-2nd
Stakes back so no complaints
CHER WHY NOT was the bet
Think he ran a very decent race
Staying on well and easily placed
The winner made them look silly
Ran into a handicap good thing
But the bet made a small profit
Validated the decision to bet him
Thought we performed very well
In a lot of difficult quality races
But we hit too many crossbars
Lacked that one big price winner
But there was no damage done
Staked bet placed a healthy draw
 





PROFILES & PREVIEWS       




Punchestown 12.40

4/5 Tactical Move, 7/2 Lets Go Champ, 10/1 Star Harbour
12/1 San Martino, 16/1 Clodders Dream, 16/1 Fireworks
16/1 Ideal Vert, 20/1 Boola Boola, 20/1 Do Whatever
25/1 Ivasecret, 33/1 Catchabird, Ivoir Borget, Skip Mahler
50/1 It's Never Simple, Stellium, 66/1 West Of Carrig
100/1 Asatisfiedmind, Fruit Blossom, 100/1 Xchanger
200/1 Alice Van Hall, 200/1 Ask Bob, 200/1 Jinxs Link.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Strange race

The market leaders is a 9yo

TACTICAL MOVE off 1158 days

That is not a pleasant thought
Any other trainer I'd be confident
But Willie Mullins prevents that
 
LETS GO CHAMP is an 8yo 
Horrible profile on racecourse debut

The obvious question in this race
Can we find a safe each way bet

IVASECRET looks too risky
Coming from a 7f race on the flat

SAN MARTINO is one possibility
But not sure if he has enough ability

STAR HARBOUR is the other one
Given his proven class on the flat

Have to factor in the market
The stables involved as well

Unsatisfactory conclusion
But felt this compromise bet
Made more sense than most

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet STAR HARBOUR 10/1

£4.00 Win Bet TACTICAL MOVE 5/4

£1.00 Win Bet SAN MARTINO 9/1






Southwell 12.50

7/2 Zumaaty, 5/1 Back From Dubai, 5/1 Kodebreaker
6/1 Solar Prophet, 7/1 John The Baptist, 8/1 Hopeman Harbour
10/1 Run Teddy Run, 14/1 Inexplicable, 14/1 Revoquable
16/1 Claddaghduff, 25/1 John O'Groats, 66/1 Smart Connection
66/1 Straitouttacompton.

8f Handicap 

Horses rated 0-60

Picking away at a few of these

CLADDAGHDUFF has 4 runs
Too unorthodox as a 5 year old
Not tempted with that combination 

JOHN O'GROATS is underraced 

ZUMAATY looks that way too
Exposed 5yo with 8 weeks off
Big weight 1 run since October
He would no be my first choice

BACK FROM DUBAI won last time
He's had 30 days off since then
Just the 1 run in the last 87 days
No negative but not like a winner

Similar races in January
Show male horses
With under 11 career runs
Coming from 6f or shorter
Have a 0-34 record in them
SOLAR PROPHET has this profile

RUN TEDDY RUN  is a 4yo
Lightly raced not shown much
Wrong part of the weights rated 52

KODEBREAKER is a 4yo
Up in trip he fails some angles

Similar races show
Horses aged 4
Coming from 7f races
With more than 14 runs
Have a poor 1-57 record
Male 4 year olds were 0-30
Those with 8st 11lbs + were 0-47
Those winning last time 0-5
KODEBREAKER fails all these

INEXPLICABLE is not a negative
Don't see enough drawn widest

Shortlist

REVOQUABLE is hard to read
But he ran very well last time out 
Badly ridden on wrong part of track
  
JOHN THE BAPTIST

HOPEMAN HARBOUR
 
Both 4 year olds
Both second last time
In separate divisions of same race

Going with a win and 2 saver bets



Selection

£7.50  Win Bet HOPEMAN HARBOUR 11/1-12/1

£1.50 Win Bet REVOQUABLE 6/1-7/1

£1.00 Win Bet JOHN THE BAPTIST 10/1 








Punchestown 1.10

5/4 Bialystok, 9/4 Belle The Lioness, 7/2 Sa Fureur
9/2 Sunchart, 16/1 Teuchters Glory, 33/1 Alpha Steed
33/1 Stuzzikini, 40/1 Il Silenzio, 50/1 Away To Milan
50/1 King's Commander, West Away, 66/1 Magnetic North
66/1 Yewood, 100/1 American Money, Dotie Boy
150/1 Autumn In The Park, Battle It Out, 150/1 Moonface
150/1 Policy Breaker, Windgap Warrior, 200/1 Master Breffni
200/1 Papa Barns.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Another mystery race

BIALYSTOK is a 5yo
Last seen abroad on the flat
That was 488 days ago now
He comes from W.P.Mullins
So making no assumptions

The frame of this race
Puts a burglary bet in play
SUNCHART is one option
Smart on the flat no hurdle form
No surprise if he were to win it
SA FUREUR has been hurdling
Going with him but it's a guess
And motivated by the race frame

Selection

SA FUREUR 11/4-3/1

Each Way






Southwell 1.20

2/1 Mr Rascal, 9/4 Comedian Leader, 6/1 Captain Dandy
6/1 Seagrave Fox, 12/1 Na Scoitear, 14/1 Territorial Waters
16/1 Aberfoyle, 25/1 Bara Lacha.
 
3yo Handicap 7f

MR RASCAL has topweight

He fails a Generic Statistic

Go back to 1999
3yo Handicaps (7f)
Any class of race
Any time of year
Male horses
Under 6 career starts
Coming from 5f races
Running within 23 days
Return a 0-109 record

ABEFORYLE is up in distance
Has quite a raw and risky profile

BARA LACHA is running slowly

CAPTAIN DANDY rated only 48
Would not be the first choice

TERRETORIAL WATERS a filly
Did not achieve enough last time 

NA SCOITEAR looks unsafe
Having just 1 run in 173 days

SEGRAVE FOX is shortlistable
But perhaps more as a saver bet

COMEDIAN LEADER is a filly
Ran only 3 days ago over a mile
She clearly has the fittest profile
But a neutral profile in other areas

Selection

COMEDIAN LEADER 13/8-6/4

Win Bet







Punchestown 1.40

5/2 Carrig Carol, 9/2 Light Parade, 6/1 Lizlucky
13/2 Karen's Gift, 7/1 Birdie Blitz, 7/1 Vera Verto
17/2 Sean Says, 11/1 Getaway Goldie.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Don't like the topweight much
VERA VERTO is only a 5yo
None her age have won this race
None with her weight have won

The Go-To Profile here

Horses aged 6 or more
Between 4 and 14 races
Between 4 and 11 hurdles
At least 2 runs this year
Weight of 11st 4lbs or lower
Not beaten too far last time

Shortlisted 2

Going with a split stake

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet LIGHT PARADE 3/1-100/30

£2.50 Win Bet CARRIG CAROL 100/30-3/1









Kelso 2.00

7/4 Traprain Law, 2/1 Galunggung
7/2 Fabuleux Du Clos 7/1 Thistlebuffs, 12/1 Ebendi
20/1 Breeze Of Wind 33/1 Artic Row, 33/1Pipers Cross
50/1 Serious Mickey, 100/1 Highlander Hill
100/1 Puddledub I Froget, 200/1 Gallant Flame.

Novice Hurdle 2m

TRAPLAIN LAW 

Decent runs this year on his side
None of his rivals are safe enough
Unless there is something smart
He probably ought to take this

GALUNGGUNG is an unraced 7yo
Would not want to commit to him
EBENDI is an unraced hurdler
Trainer never had a hurdle winner
FABULEUX DU CLOS is an 8 year old
Has the ability but over a year off
THISTLEBUFFS has never raced
Stablemate of the favourite as well

Think the favourite should win this

Selection

TRAPLAIN LAW 11/10

Win Bet







Punchestown 2.40

9/4 Salmanino, 3/1 Old Soul, 4/1 Cahirdown Boy
13/2 Speed Gang, 8/1 Simply Shabra, 12/1 Round The Buoy
20/1 From The Ashes, 25/1 Coolcullen, 33/1 Low Mileage.

Beginners Chase 2m 6f

OLD SOUL is a chase debutant
SIMPLY SHABRA is one as well

January and February
Beginners Chases
Run over 2m 5f and more
Horses under 7 years olds
Having their chase debuts
Have a 0-68 record in them
They win at shorter distances
But so far all 68 failed over 21f +
OLD SOUL is therefore rejected
SIMPLY SHABRA is as well

ROUND THE BUOY is an 8yo
Happy to avoid with 314 days off
 
FROM THE ASHES is respected
Needs to impove but he could do
CAHIRDOWN BOY is exposed
And has to step up 5f in distance

SALAMINO sets the standard
Clearly looks most likely winner 

SPEED GANG looks the danger
At the prices he is worth a chance
With the favourite the saver bet


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SPEED GANG 6/1

£4.00 Win Bet SALAMINO 11/8-6/4







Punchestown 3.40

5/2 Earths Furies, 7/2 Highstreetfashion
7/1 Made In The Woods 10/1 Huit Reflets, 10/1 Soloman Lane
12/1 Aodhan May, 12/1 Bite That, 12/1 Duffys Getaway
14/1 Kalli's Quest, 16/1 Courting Vickie, 25/1 Eagle Terrace
 33/1 Agirlcalledchloe, Likable Chancer, 50/1 Killisk Ben Rose.

Handicap Chase 2m 4f


No 6 year old has won this

No 5 year old has even tried

HUIT REFLECTS is a 6yo
He has his chase debut here

DUFFYS GETAWAY is a 6yo
He also has his chase debut

Don't see them as negatives
But all past winners were older
And had at least 3 chase starts

EAGLE TERRACE is a 5yo
And unusually very exposed
For a horse as young as him

Past renewals show
Horses with over 21 runs
Have a 0-36 record in this
The following all fail this

EAGLE TERRACE 
EARTHS FURIES
LIKEABLE CHANCER
COUNTING VICKIE
HIGHSTREETFASHION
 
Past renewals show
Horses with over 10 chases
Have a 0-34 record in this
The following all fail this
EARTHS FURIES
KILLISK BEN ROSE

KALLI'S QUEST hard to like
AGIRLCALLEDCHLOE looks wrong
AODHAN MAY a mare with 1 chase run
Needs to improve plenty to win this

MADE IN THE WOODS is a 6yo
No surprise if he wins this race
But none his age have done yet

SOLOMAN LANE is an 8yo
No strong negatives against him

BITE THAT is a better age

He ran very well last time

On a track that was too sharp

Over a trip that was too short
 
Selection

BITE THAT 16/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4
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