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Favourite Bet(s)



Hereford 3.45

Bob O Rhino 11/4-3/1

Win Bet







Final Deliberations 

The wheel turns yet again
Start of a fresh new week

Decided to do a message
But it was a late decision

Not much to go on really
Just having a look around
Wind down from a weekend
That never got off the ground

Just 3 previews


Like a couple of Hereford races

Not really in my comfort zone


Hereford 1.38
£7.50 Win Bet Jack The Savage 9/2-5/1
£2.50 Win Bet Don Rafael  3/1

Annoyed there are 7 runners
The favourite is now the saver
Jack The Savage my choice
I wanted to bet him each way
So not as confident win only


Hereford 3.45
Bob O Rhino 11/4-3/1
Win Bet

This is my favourite bet
Could easily have saved
Would have done just that
In a stronger staked bet
But going win only instead

Limited choice

Just seeing whats around

Deciding how to play the week






Preview Selections



Hereford 1.38
£7.50 Win Bet Jack The Savage 9/2-5/1
£2.50 Win Bet Don Rafael  3/1

Kempton 1.50
£6.50 Win Bet Cuban Tiger 100/30
£3.50 Place Bet Mirsky 7/4

Hereford 3.45
Bob O Rhino 11/4-3/1
Win Bet






Yesterday's Summary


5 Preview Sunday message
Felt we were a little unlucky
Cork had clearly overwatered
The National was a poor race
Nothing like previous renewals
Happy not to lose in the race
Positive Thinker each way 2nd
Ran well enough returned stake
Oscars Brother won as a saver
Hamish did the same in the last
Just the first two races losers
Grooveykindoflove did not race
We just had a £4 place bet left
Looked sure to win but tied up
Iron Fist did the same as well
Lost both of the races tactically
Thought we deserved far better
Defeated but wasn't a bad one







Profiles & Previews





Hereford 1.38

9/4 Fourtowns, 11/4 Don Rafael, 4/1 Jeudidee
11/2 Bread And Butter, 10/1 Jack The Savage
10/1 New Found Fame, 25/1 Joyful Kit.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Conditional / Amateur Jockeys 
Horses rated 0-105

DON RAFAEL may be unsafe
He is a 4yo with 58 days off
Plenty of weight to carry too

Go back to 2011
September to November
Handicap Hurdles
Run over similar trips
Horses aged 4
Over 5 career starts
Absent over 35 days
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Return a 0-115 record
DON RAFAEL has this profile

Looking at alternatives

BREAD AND BUTTER a 9yo
Might win but a long absence
Would rather look elsewhere

NEW FOUND FAME an 8yo
Hard to like with 173 days off
Stable no winners this season

JOYFUL KIT looks resistible

FOURYOWNS is a 5yo from 2m

JEUDIDEE is a 5yo from 2m

Cant rule them out
But both profiles are weak
When you factor in weight

JACK THE SAVAGE in contrast
Has less weight and 2 years older
Just had a marginally safer profile

Only 7 runners

So going with a saver

Surprisingly that's the 4yo


Selection

£7.50 Win Bet JACK THE SAVAGE 9/2-5/1
 
£2.50 Win Bet DON RAFAEL 3/1






Kempton 1.50

7/4 Heathcliff, 4/1 Brewing, 5/1 Mirsky
11/2 Cuban Tiger, 12/1 Havanagreattime
12/1 Mums Tipple, Rhoscolyn, 14/1 Strobe
50/1 Mcmanaman.

7f Handicap

Class 2 race

STROBE is topweight
Happy to avoid off 387 days

RHOSCOLYN next in weights
Looks risky on sand rated 101
His record in handicaps
When rated 98 or higher is 0-22

HEALTHCLIFF is a 3yo

Liked him last time out
Felt he was improving
But that was 58 days ago

Go back to 2001
October and November
Class 2 handicaps
Run on the all weather
Horses aged 3
Over 7 career starts
Absent more than 56 days
From Class 2 or lower
Return a 0-30 record in them

HEALTHCLIFF fails this

Not sure whether to trust this stat
Some did won on the grass like them
But none at any trip on the sand
Might win but not like any winners

HAVANAGREATTIME is a 3yo
Just the 1 run in 222 days now
Makes him look rather underraced

MUMS TIPPLE is a 7yo
Not for me with 96 days off

BREWING might go and win
But just 2 runs since February
Not very appealing for a 5yo
He is lightly raced from a top stable
But not matchable to any winners

MIRSKY has a better profile
Will the drop in trip help him
Hard to know but 3 runs at 7f
His figures good enough to win
The outside draw is a problem

Go back to 2016
Kempton 7f handicaps
Under 10 runners
Horses aged 3 or more
Drawn in stall 9
Have a 0-64 record
MIRSKY next to try this

Like him more as a place bet
 
CUBAN TIGER the win selection
I'd have liked a more recent run
But is still relatively unexposed 
  
Selection

£6.50 Win Bet CUBAN TIGER 100/30

£3.50 Place Bet MIRSKY 7/4






Hereford 3.45

11/8 Love Tree, 5/2 Princess T
13/2 Bob O Rhino  8/1 Tour Ovalie
10/1 Roccos Inspiration.

Mares' Handicap Hurdle 2m

Horses rated 0-112

LOVE TREE is topweight

Just a 4 year old
She has 228 days off
 
Go back to 2007
Mares handicap hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Under 7 career runs
Absent over 46 days
Have a 0-81 record
LOVE TREE fails this
  
No obvious alternative

Trying to narrow it down more

PRINCESS T is a 9 year old
This time of year under 2m 2f
They don't have a great record

Go back to 2007
Mares handicap hurdles
October to December
Run over 2m 1f or shorter
Horses aged 9 + are 0-45
PRINCESS T next to try


TOUR OVALIE is unsafe
As a 5yo with 1 run in months 
But comes back just 8 days later
Raises the doubt she bounces

Go back to 2007
Mares handicap hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses under 6
Over 7 career runs
Over 4 hurdle runs
Just 1 race in 4 months
Running within 13 days
Return a 0-30 record
TOUR OVALIE fails this
That is evidence of the bounce

But in a very small field
All of these issues are cloudy

ROCCO'S INSPIRATION is a 7yo
She faces 94 days off the track

She is exposed with 17 hurdle runs
Maybe too exposed over this trip 

Go back to 2007
Mares handicap hurdles
September to December
Run over 2m 3f and shorter
Mares with over 14 hurdles
Absent more than 93 days
Have a 0-57 record in them
ROCCO'S INSPIRATION fails this

Some won at longer trips
But none over short ones

BOB O RHINO is a 5yo

Lightly raced 

Unexposed no baggage

Only horse I can't criticise

Selection

BOB O RHINO 11/4-3/1

Win Bet







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 




Flat season ends this week

Been an enjoyable season

Nothing ever stands still

National Hunt already started

Got some big races in play

Paddy Power Gold Cup 

Hennessy Gold Cup


Concentrating on this week 

Target Races

Saturday
Doncaster 3.45
November Handicap 

Will be covering this midweek
No entries published right now


Saturday
Aintree 2.40
Grand Sefton 



Ante Post statistics below

Will be having a crack at this

Expecting the weights to rise

Will cover this race early as well






Ante Post Statistics

Saturday November 9th

Aintree 2.40

Grand Sefton Handicap Chase

9/1 Percussion, 10/1 Frero Banbou, 12/1 Arizona Cardinal
14/1 Eldorado Allen, 16/1 Latenightpass, 16/1 Some Scope
16/1 Outlaw Peter, 16/1 Sure Touch, 16/1 Gaboriot
16/1 King Turgeon, 16/1 Bill Baxter, 16/1 Minella Drama
20/1 William Of York, 20/1 Highstakesplayer, 20/1 Our Power
20/1 Shantreusse, 25/1 Cruz Control, 25/1 Hitman
25/1 Idalko Bihoue, 25/1 Twinjets, 25/1 Jet Plane
25/1 Autonomous Cloud, 25/1 Harper's Brook
33/1 Richmond Lake, 33/1 Killer Kane, 33/1 Persian Time
33/1 Half Shot, 33/1 Mole Court, 33/1 Sans Bruit
33/1 Vintage Fizz, 33/1 Celebre D'allen, 33/1 Statuario
33/1 Unanswered Prayers, 40/1 Galon De Vauzelle
40/1 Grandads Cottage, 40/1 The Flier Begley
 
Horses with under 15 runs
Have not won this race before

Horses with under 8 chase runs
Record a 0-47 record since 2006
 
Go back to the 1998 renewal
Horses with under 17 races
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-38 record since then

Past winners since 2009
Had the following lifetime runs

23 23 21 54 15 26 27 21
34 24 16 20 26 19 24

Horses with over 34 career runs
Have a 1-47 record in this race
 
Ages of recent winners

7 9 8 9 8 9 11 6
9 9 8 10 9 8
9 8 8 8 11 10

Horses aged 7
Have a poor 1-61 record
Only winner was last year
Favourite just 10 runners

Seasonal debuts
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have not won this race before
 
Only 1 of the last 23 winners
Were officially rated over 144
Those that were are just 1-30
That winner had a recent race

Go back to 2011
Every winner was rated 131 +
Those rated lower were 0-41

No horse with 1 race that year
Won coming from under 2m 3f

Every winner since 2008
Came from Class 3 or higher
Those that did not were 0-17

Horses with over 14 chase runs
Absent more than 41 days
Have a 0-28 record in this race

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