5 Previews 
0 Account Bet  

 
No Account Bet 
 
 


Final Deliberations  


Abandoned

Wetherby
Fontwell 
Wexford 
 
The weather still fully in charge  
As it will be again on saturday

Down to 4 meetings tomorrow
Expecting to lose another later
Saturday may be unusually grim

The Curragh may be the focus
Two all weather cards as well

Aintree National next Saturday
But tomorrow not quite as rich
Never can tell could still be fine

5 Previews

1 Lingfield
4 Musselburgh

Lingfield looked too difficult
No significant breakthroughs  
Messaged starts late at 3.30

Everything tells me shut shop
And don't risk any losing bet
Keep confidence high Saturday


Not picking one of the 5 out

Prefer to choose our battles

Go into Saturday head clear








Preview Selections 

Lingfield 3.30
£6.50 Win Bet Unavailable 13/2
£3.50 Win Bet Falmouth Boy 7/4

Musselburgh 4.30
£8.50 Win Bet Speed Davis 11/4-5/2
£1.50 Win Bet Coastal Rock 5/1

Musselburgh 5.05
£6.00 Win Bet Autumn Return 11/2-6/1
£4.00 Place Bet  Ip Up 11/8-6/4 

Musselburgh 5.40
Golden Maverick 10/11
Win Bet

Musselburgh 7.10
This Is Bob 4/1-9/2
Each Way 








Yesterday's Summary    

Covered only the 3 previews
But managed to find a winner
The first preview was a loser
My favourite option in Ireland
Thelonglad also failed to win
Star Of Lady M saved the day
Last preview a welcome win
Felt better as the other pair lost
More a relief than a celebration
Not the winner I'd have chosen
But grateful and relieved he did






PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
     
  

Lingfield 3.30

7/4 Falmouth Boy, 5/1 Damia, 11/2 Unavailable
7/1 Monkey Miss, 8/1 Cogsworth, 10/1 Moreginplease
14/1 Blue Eyed Kate, Clear Aim, Midnight Force
33/1 Dream Of Keda, Majolica, 50/1 Another Jack.

3yo Handicap 6f

FALMOUH BOY is a bit short

But has the best chance of these

The winner of this race
May come from the race
He was 4th in 2 weeks ago

UNAVAILABLE was in 6th
Felt one of those would win

COGSWORTH ran 10 days ago
Wanted more from his last race
MONKEY MISS is a filly
Long break and a big weight
DAMIA has some low numbers
Leap of faith to side with him
One or two dangers elsewhere
MIDNIGHT FORCE is one
But preferred the obvious ones

FALMOUH BOY looks best
Could make him a saver bet
Quite tempting at the prices
UNAVAILABLE the win bet

Going in that direction

Expecting the favourite to win
But at the prices going this way

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet UNAVAILABLE 13/2

£3.50 Win Bet FALMOUH BOY 7/4








Musselburgh 4.30

6/5 Full Metal Jacket, 3/1 Speed Davis, 5/1 Reforme
8/1 Coastal Rock, 14/1 Graze On Phoenix, 16/1 Bold Light
16/1  Lemoine, 33/1 Looking Splendid, 50/1 Anamanda
66/1 Theatre Chief, 100/1 Foshan.
 
Maiden Hurdle 2m 1f

One of the considerations

FULL METAL JACKET 

Was last seen 310 days ago
He only has bumper form 

All of his market dangers
Have some hurdle experience

He could be better anyway
More unproven than a negative
But his profile did not inspire

Go back to 2008
April 
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from a bumper
Absent over 212 days
Have a 0-40 record 
FULL METAL JACKET fails that

Some won in March and May
Do not see him as a negative
But clearly not a strong profile
And his rivals have hurdle form
SPEED DAVIS a 6 year old
Was 2nd on his debut at Catterick
I fancied him to win that race
Hindsight now clearly suggests 
He ran into a better horse that day
Who went on to win a handicap
I like his chance as much as any

REFORME may be a player
But was only 40/1 on his debut

COASTAL ROCK in contrast
Started 8/1 and looks a saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet SPEED DAVIS 11/4-5/2

£1.50 Win Bet COASTAL ROCK 5/1







Musselburgh 5.05

7/2 Sunday Soldier, 11/2 Parvos, 13/2 Ip Up
7/1 Autumn Return, 8/1 Could Be Trouble, 9/1 Spit Spot
10/1 Donso Star, 12/1 Lone Star, 14/1 Similar Story
14/1 Spot On Soph, 16/1 Noble Affair, 25/1 Blame Rose
25/1 Moonlight Glory, 25/1 Sinndarella.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

These races are quite rare

March April May

Only has 18 similar races

Found a couple of angles

Not sure if they will work out
But they do raise some issues

Go back to 2010
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m3f to 2m 5f
More than 4 runners 
In Class 2-3-4 grade
Run any time of year 
Horses with over 10 runs
Coming up in distance
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 0-78 record in them
The following horses fail

PARVOS
BLAME ROSE
SPIT SPOT
SUNDAY SOLDIER

A variation of this angle 
Go back to 2010
Mares Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m3f to 2m 5f
More than 4 runners 
In Class 2-3-4 grade
Run any time of year 
Horses with over 8 runs
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Absent more than 14 days
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-39 record in them

PARVOS fails this 0-30 angle

IP UP has the same problem

SUNDAY SOLDIER does too

Opposing all the above horses

SINNDARELLA is underraced
NOBLE AFFAIR absent too long
SPOT ON SOPH the same problem

Similar races
Run all year round like this
Show horses aged 9 or more
With 10st 7lbs or more weight
Have a 0-30 record in them all
Opposing these 9 year olds
MOONLIGHT GLORY
COULD BE TROUBLE

SIMILAR STORY is unsafe
Not ruled out but wanted more

DONSO STAR is a 6yo
She need to improve again
But lightly raced and may do

LONE STAR is a 7yo
She won this race last year
In the middle of an in form period
Not in the same form this season
Don't mind the 61 day absence
But she is very exposed now
With just 1 run in 101 days too

AUTUMN RETURN has 72 days off
But is lighter raced which helps her
And has won over course/distance

IP UP fails an earlier angle
But she only just fails that 
She is the class horse in this
I would want her as a saver
Allowing us the two best horses
Want to play the race this way
 
Selection

£6.00 Win Bet AUTUMN RETURN 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet IP UP 11/8-6/4 






Musselburgh 5.40

15/8 Golden Maverick, 5/1 Balboa
6/1 Latin Verse 13/2 Teorie, 9/1 La Quarite
9/1 Rory The Cat 14/1 Common Acclaim
14/1 Ragosina 20/1 Ruler Of The River.

Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Not many looked appealing

GOLDEN MAVERICK 

Improving won last time

Yes he is a short price here

But hard to like many others

His two market dangers

LATIN VERSE
BALBOA

Both pulled up last time
Running in the Boodles

Neither have momentum
Which could be a problem

No juvenile 4yo handicap
Has been won at anytime
Buy a horse who last time out
Failed to complete their race
Only 40 tried but all got beat

TEORIE also ran at Cheltenham
Thrashed at 40/1 in the Boodles
Again offers us no momentum
LA QUARITE is up 3 grades
Thought the favourite would win

Selection

GOLDEN MAVERICK 10/11

Win Bet







Musselburgh 7.10

13/8 Isholo Du Vivien, 3/1 This Is Bob
13/2 Hattons Gardens, 8/1 Goodtimes Badtimes
8/1 Prontoanita, 14/1 Jackhammer, 16/1 Misscarlett
20/1 Agilulf, 25/1 Not In Kansas
40/1 Shoughall's Boy.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f
  
Horses rated 0-100

GOODTIMES BADTIMES a 9yo
Has raced just the once since 2002
It feels a big ask to overcome that
Looks underraced as do many more

SHOUGHALL'S BOT
AGILULF
NOT IN KANSAS

HATTONS GARDENS another
Just the one bad run in 11 months

JACKHAMMER is a 10yo
He's raced once in 160 days

PRONTOANITA a 5yo mare
Lacks experience has 98 days off

MISSCARLETT is resistible
As a 10yo mare from the flat

The race lacks fit profiles

ISHILO DU VIVIEN the favourite

Does come here fit and well

But he is a bit on the raw side

He has 4 career starts
He has 3 hurdle starts
And comes from a 2m race

Go back to 2010
Musselburgh
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and more
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 6 runs
With under 5 hurdle runs
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-36 record in them
ISHILO DU VIVIEN fails this

He has an unsafe profile

Normally I'd oppose him happily

But there is little safe opposition

Several  of them are underraced
So I won't be surprised if he wins

THIS IS BOB

Also has runs this year

He has a bit more experience

And gets 19lbs from the favourite

He looks limited like all of them
But has ended up as the selection

Selection

THIS IS BOB 4/1-9.2

Each Way

*******************************************************
*******************************************************