6 Previews
1 Account Bet




Account Bet

   
Wetherby 12.48

£8.00 Win Bet SCHMILSSON 5/2-11/4

£2.00 Win Bet CLASSIC MAESTRO 100/30-7/2






Final Deliberations 


Aintree is abandoned

Chepstow abandoned

Sandown  has survived
Didn't fancy much there


Losing Aintree was disappointing
Lost the Becher Chase and more
Reduced the message to 6 races

Obviously facing the 4 inspections
Impossible to plan today that well



6 Previews

4 Wetherby
2 Navan


 
Short priced account bet

Down to the limited choice 

Never going to be a classic




Account Bet
 
Wetherby 12.48

£8.00 Win Bet SCHMILSSON 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet CLASSIC MAESTRO 100/30-7/2


Favourite fails a generic stat

If we can get her beaten

Not that simple in a small field

We corner the two class horses

SCHMILSSON becomes 7/4

Most stakes back on the danger






Preview Selections


Wetherby 10.35 
£4.50 Win Bet Rumoursareflying 13/2-7/1
£5.50 Win Bet Diamonds For Luck 4/5-8/1

Wetherby 11.07
Big Zouk 11/4
Win Bet
 
Wetherby 12.48 
£8.00 Win Bet Schmilsson 5/2  
£2.00 Win Bet Classic Maestro 100/30-7/2

Wetherby 1.23
Breeze Of Wind 4/1
Each Way

Navan 1.42 
£4.00 Each Way Paggane 6/1 
£1.00 Win Bet  Flicker Of Hope 8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet   Oscars Brother 8/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Navan 2.17 
Sa Fureur 11/4
Win Bet



 




Profiles & Previews


   
Wetherby 10.35

6/5 Diamonds For Luck, 6/1 Rumoursareflying
7/1 High Dancer, Just Call Me Lucy
12/1 Too Cool Forshrule, 14/1 Chalk That Down
16/1 Moonlight Monarch, 50/1 Sam's Falcon
Novice Hurdle 2m

Hurdling figures show us

DIAMONDS FOR LUCK
Healthy edge on figures 
But he is short at odds on
Making him the saver bet

HIGH DANCER is a 4yo
Has to improve from debut
Has a ungenuine sire as well

JUSTCALL ME LUCY a mare
She needs lots of improvement

RUMOURSAREFLYING

Does not have much to improve
Clear second best on figures
Consistent and experienced

Selection

£4.50 Win Bet RUMOURSAREFLYING 13/2-7/1

£5.50 Win Bet DIAMONDS FOR LUCK 4/5-8/11







Wetherby 11.07

15/8 Barrabooka, 7/2 Big Zouk  5/1 Broderick
8/1 Sandscape, 11/1 Farmer Jimmy, 12/1 Jamesieconn
16/1 King Casey, 40/1 Rocket Rufus, 50/1 Glen Road.

Novice Hurdle 2m

BRODERICK is a 4yo
Really laboured last time
He could have bounced
But limited encouragement
Coming back 18 days later

SANDSCAPE another 4yo
80/1 and 100/1 in 2 hurdles
Unplaced in both not for me

BARRABOOKA is a 6yo
Ran a nice debut 26 days ago
Did not beat much in 3rd place
Staying chaser of the future

BIG ZOUK may win this 

He may be an unraced 5yo

But his stables novices

Are running well on debuts

Small Town Kid won on debut last week
Jo Coko second on debut this week

BIG ZOUK far more expensive
May have found a softer race

Selection

BIG ZOUK  11/4

Win Bet





Wetherby 12.48

13/8 Yorkshire Lady, 3/1 Schmilsson
11/2 Classic Maestro, 8/1 Rory The Cat
9/1 Rioja Alta, 10/1 Royal King, 16/1 Belvedere Blast
25/1 Leading Lion

Handicap Hurdle 2m

YORKSHIRE LADY is a mare
Decent 81 rated flat handicapper

She tries to win a handicap hurdle
As a mare with just 1 hurdle race
A race she raced in 10 months ago
She has been on the flat since then

Mares with just the one hurdle race
Winning handicap hurdles are rare

Only 4 mares have done it
Tended to be on faster ground
In summer jumping handicaps

Last to do it Glen Ava in 2022
She only had 7 career starts 
All the mares that won handicaps
With just 1 hurdle run were similar
They all had under 8 career runs
YORKSHIRE LADY has had 29

Go back to 2007
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Open to both sexes

Female horses
More than 12 career runs
Under 3 hurdle races
Return a 0-48 record
YORKSHIRE LADY fails this


Several 4 year olds in the race
None that made particular appeal
 
Prefer the topweights

Feel they have more substance 

CLASSIC MAESTRO topweight
Have to worry he may well bounce
But if not he could outclass them

SCHMILSSON is proven here

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet SCHMILSSON 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet CLASSIC MAESTRO 7/2






Wetherby 1.23

3/1 Wal Buck's, 5/1 Gold Emery, 11/2 Ali Star Bert
6/1 Latenightrumble, 7/1 Breeze Of Wind, 8/1 Big Bee Hive
8/1 Good Work, 10/1 Nights In Venice, 33/1 Agirlcalledchloe
33/1  Global Assembly.


Handicap Chase 3m

GOLD EMERY is topweight

First time out with 12st 1lbs
Happy enough to avoid him

NIGHTS IN VENICE likewise
Would not want him first time

WAL BUCK's the favourite

He is only a 5 year old
Two years younger than the rest
Rated just 102 he is short at 3/1

Looking at an each way alternative

ALI STAR BERT is too exposed

GOOD WORK is too exposed
Already had 22 chase runs now
Not ideal for a horse that's only 8
Especially one with a big weight

BIG BEE HIVE has a chance

LATENIGHTRUMBLE is a 7yo

Just 4 career runs
Just 1 chase run
Yet has 12st to carry

Profile is on the raw side

Yesterday at Sandown
Holy Joe Smoke was similar
But his win was a smaller field
He had less weight as well
And was a younger horse too

BREEZE OF WIND is preferred

Selection

BREEZE OF WIND 4/1

Each Way








Navan 1.42

6/1 Prends Garde A Toi, 13/2 My Trump Card
13/2 Paggane, 10/1 Four Clean Aces, 10/1 Minella Sixo
11/1 Oscars Brother, 12/1 Gaoth Chuil, 12/1  Intense Raffles
14/1 Backmersackme, Flicker Of Hope, 14/1 Good Time Jonny
14/1 Slanagaibhgoleir, 16/1 Iceberg Theory, 16/1 Lucky Lyreen
20/1 Beaufort Scale, 20/1 Jody Ted, 20/1 Space Tourist
25/1 Digby, Fortunedefortunata, 25/1 Open To Question
25/1 Sarah Beara

3m 1f Handicap Hurdle

Listed Class race

Horses rated 0-141

6 renewals
 
INTENSE RAFFLES a 6yo

Last seen back in April
Winning the Irish National

Has only had 3 hurdle races
Topweight and 250 days off
Not a safe enough profile
No horse with a similar profile
Has won a race like this one

Interesting all 6 past winners

Had at least 6 hurdle runs 
Those with fewer are 0-27

Had at least 10 career runs
Those with fewer also 0-27

Came from 2m 6f or more
Those from shorter are 0-56

May not be a race 

Suited to the unexposed type

MINELLA SIXO looks raw
Just 3 career runs in hurdles
 
MY TRUMP CARD is a 6yo
Short of runs absent 332 days
Not the safest of sire statistics

Hurdlers sired by Shantou
Running over 3m or more
Listed and Graded class
Absent over 48 days
Have a 0-25 record so far
MY TRUMP CARD fails this

OPEN TO QUESTION  a 4yo
The only one and off months
Surprised if he could win this

FORTUNEDEFORTUNATA a 7yo
Looks underraced this season

GOOD TIME JONNY is a 9yo
Too much weight and too long off
For a horse his age in this class
DIGBY also rejected as a 9yo

SPACE TOURIST is wrong
Coming from a 2m 1f chase

Go back to 2007
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f and more
Listed and graded class
Any time of the year
Female horses
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Over 10 previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-26 record in them
GAOTH CHUIL fails this angle

LUCKY LYREEN is rejected
Doubt he will defy his absence
BACKMERSACKME is unsafe
 
PRENDS GARDE A TOI a 5yo
Not a match to any past winner
Lightly raced and going up 4f

FOUR CLEAN ACES a 6yo mare
Won last time but 6 weeks ago
Not the stable first string either

SLANAGAIBHGOLEIR is 6 years old
One of several from Gordon Elliot
Does not look the stable first choice
Obvious concern he could bounce
He has only had the 7 career races 
All past winners had at least 10 runs


Shortlisting these

FLICKER OF HOPE

PAGGANE 

OSCARS BROTHER

OSCARS BROTHER is a positive 
Stable have had just 1 career winner 

FLICKER OF HOPE is a 5yo
Faces 125 days off the track
No past winner was like him
One or two similar types won
In other long distance hurdles

PAGGANE has a solid chance
Right blend of experience/fitness

Selection

£4.00 Each Way PAGGANE 6/1

£1.00 Win Bet FLICKER OF HOPE 8/1
 
£1.00 Win Bet  OSCARS BROTHER 8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







  
Navan 2.17

3/1 Sa Fureur, 8/1 Adamantly Chosen, 8/1 Lucid Dreams
9/1 Miss Tempo, 10/1 Aime Desjy, Klarc Kent, Macdermott
12/1 Battle It Out, 12/1 Hercule Du Seuil, 14/1 Arctic Bresil
14/1 Espanito Bello, 16/1 Mars Harper, 16/1 Music Of Tara
16/1 Must Be Obeyed, 16/1 Riaan, 20/1 The Big Chap
25/1 Captains Nephew, Mr Saxobeat, Spirit Of Legend

Handicap Chase 2m 4f

Listed Class race

Looked at past renewals

Opposing the most exposed

ESPANITO BELLO
LUCID DREAMS
THE BIG CHAP
MARS HARPER
MUST BE OBEYED
MR SAXOBEAT
  
October to December
Similar races show
Horses aged 8 or more
Dropping from 3m races
Running this season
Have a 0-57 record 
The following horses fail

MARS HARPER
LUCID DREAMS

HERCULE DU SEUIL topweight

Has to come up from  a 2m race
Can not match him to a winner

Go back to 2005
Handicap Chases
Any distance
Listed and Graded class
Horses aged 7
More than 10 chase runs
Absent over 69 days
Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in them
ADAMANTLY CHOSEN fails this

MISS TEMPO could go well
But she is a mare from a novice
MUSIC OF TARA another mare
Does not come out well enough
AIME DESJY not like a winner
As a 9 year old seasonal debutant

Other seasonal debutants
Not negatives but not appealing

MACDERMOTT
ARCTIC BRESIL
KLARK KENT

RIAAN is a 7yo
Beaten too far in the Troytown

BATTLE IT OUT has a chance
But unseated on comeback run

SA FUREUR has a good profile
Two past winners were like him
Prepping in a Navan hurdle race


Selection 

SA FUREUR 11/4

Win Bet


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