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Favourite Bet


Pontefract 3.45

£5.50 Win Bet Tropical Island 13/2-7/1 

£3.00 Win Bet Sophia's Starlight  9/4 -5/2

£1.50 Win Bet Thursday's Child 13/2-7/1








Final Deliberations


Start of a fresh new week

Cheltenham Friday and Saturday 
Aintree also returns next Sunday

This is a 7th message in a row
May have to take tomorrow off 

Undecided but it's looking likely
Starting to feel it's time to stop 
Watch how today plays out first



Pontefract biased message

5 Previews

None of them look that easy
So hard to predict our end fate
Settled on 1 race as the best



Pontefract 3.45

£5.50 Win Bet Tropical Island 7/1 

£3.00 Win Bet Sophia's Starlight  9/4 

£1.50 Win Bet Thursday's Child 13/2







Preview Selections 

Gowran Park 2.00 
£8.00 Win Bet Your Call 5/1-11/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Dandy Khan 7/2-4/1
 
Pontefract 2.45 
£6.00 Win Bet Cymbidium 7/1  
£4.00 Place Bet Charming Fellow 11/8

Pontefract 3.45
£5.50 Win Bet Tropical Island 6/1-13/2
£3.00 Win Bet Sophia's Starlight  9/4 
£1.50 Win Bet Thursday's Child 13/2

Pontefract 4.15
£6.00 Win Bet Wise Eagle 5/1-11/2
£4.00 Win Bet Kyle Of Lochalsh 6/4
 
Pontefract 5.20 
£3.50 Each Way Jojo Rabbit 14/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Glendown 8/1







Yesterday's Summary
 
Very content with Sundays results
Having said that I didn't see them
Fell asleep before it all unfolded
Woke up after it had all finished
Model Approach was great start
Ridiculous he was not  favourite
Finsceal Luas's win was spoiled
Non runner made him unbackable 
Strange how things change quickly
At the start of the week main target
Was a bet on the Munster National
But the price just got too ridiculous
And I didn't want to suggest a bet
Horantzau d'Airy finished second
Just beat by a front running 11yo
The first 2 "Nationals" of the year
Both got won by clear front runners
The saver won the Durham National
Master Dunraven was the highlight
Great win landing the days best bet
Even if I slept all the way through it






PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Gowran Park 2.00

3/1 Dandy Khan, 7/2 Your Call, 4/1 Buck Barrow
6/1 Whywhywhy Delilah, 10/1 Watching, 12/1 Chica Guerrera
14/1 Rumba Bay, 20/1 Arizona Robbins, 20/1 Vovatia
25/1 Aiyana Rose, Hooz In Court, 33/1 Kilgharrahs Love
33/1 Legendsoftheland, 33/1 Magna Beauty, 33/1 Rebel Lily
33/1 Udacha.

7f Nursery

Horses rated 0-65

Never get to the bottom of this

Too many runners

Too many complexities

But there will be lots of deadwood

Yesterday a horse was backed
REBEL BAY was nibbled at 25/1
Nobody would have got much on
But it triggered an alarm about her
I don't see much of a case for her
Can't see why she is back in trip
And one of many I am cold about
CHICA GUERRERA is similar too
Not sure a drop in trip helps her

WHYWHYDELILAH is rejected
Filly with topweight and 34 days off
WATCHING another difficult to like

Ones I liked most

DANDY KHAN

YOUR CALL

BUCK BARROW

DANDY KHAN is shortlisted
As this is a big drop in class

YOUR CALL is interesting
He was 4th at Naas two runs ago
Badly drawn did not stay the mile 
BUCK BARROW was 8th that day

They met each other again last time
Neither were able to show their form
Drawn high in a Bellewstown nursery
Finished together down the field

YOUR CALL may like this trip drop

Hard to split these 3 horses
But see them as potential winners
Selection and staking is guesswork

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet YOUR CALL 5/1-11/2

£2.00 Win Bet DANDY KHAN 7/2-4/1







Pontefract 2.45

4/1 Bentbasa, 4/1 Larchill Lass, 5/1 Testimonial
6/1 Aye Up Lass, Flying Fortress, 7/1 Cymbidium
8/1 Charming Fellow, 10/1 Greek Gift
20/1 Toby Two Scoops.
 
8f Nursery

This race goes back decades

The highest weights rarely win
Horses with 9st 7lbs are 1-30
None have won carrying higher

LARCHILL LASS has topweight
Her claimer rider may help her
But felt her profile was unsafe

LARCHILL LASS is a filly
She comes from a 6f race

Past renewals show
Horses with over 4 runs
Coming from 6f or shorter
Have a 0-20 record in this

Go back to 2011
September to November
8f Nurseries
Class 3 and lower
Horses with over 4 runs
Coming from 6f or shorter
Have a poor 1-122 record
Those with 8st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-106 record in them 
LARCHILL LASS has this profile

BENTBASA has 9st 8lbs
Only 3 runs and 39 days off
Not sure about that combination

Go back to 2003
September to November
8f Nurseries 
Class 3 and lower
Horses with under 4 runs
Absent more than 29 days
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Have won several races
But they all went up in trip
Those who ran at a mile last time
Have a 0-53 record in them
BENTBASA has this profile
TOBY TWO SCOOPS does

AYE UP LASS is a filly
She has 36 days off the track

Go back to 2007
September to November
8f Nurseries
Class 3 and lower
Fillies with over 5 runs
Absent more than 25 days
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-32 record in them
AYE UP LASS has this profile
GREEK GIFT has a lot to prove
She is more exposed than ideal
 
FLYING FORTRESS has a chance
But stall 9 of 9 worries me

Go back to 1997
Pontefract 8f races
Under 11 runners
Horses aged 2
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-24 record
FLYING FORTRESS fails this

TESTIMONIAL has a chance
But 44 days off and just 4 runs
May be a challenge on soft

CHARMING FELLOW is respected
Did enough last time to consider him 
Low figures and weak breeding stats
But well treated and down in class


Split staking win/place

Selection
  
£6.00 Win Bet CYMBIDIUM 7/1 

£4.00 Place Bet CHARMING FELLOW 11/8










Pontefract 3.45

3/1 Sophia's Starlight, 7/2 Alcazan
9/2 The Eyes Have It, 13/2 Thursday's Child
7/1 Tropical Island, 8/1 Glorious Angel
12/1 May Blossom

Fillies Handicap 6f

Class 2

These races are rare

If I look at every one of them
Run at any time of the season
Winners aged 6 or more are rare

No horse aged 6 or more
Has won any of these races
Without dropping in class
Only 20 tried but all failed
ALCAZAN has this profile
Oldest horse not for me

GLORIOUS ANGEL is out
Ran 2 days ago after 153 days off
Underraced and on the bounce
 
THE EYES HAVE IT has 4 runs

Similar races in October
Show horses with under 8 runs
Have a 0-16 record in them

September October November
Fillies handicaps over 6f
Run this this class show us
Horses with under 6 runs
Carrying 8st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-12 record in them

THE EYES HAVE IT fails this
Small sample sizes not convincing
But she is the least experienced
And has never raced over this trip

If we can get her beaten
With Glorious Angel opposable
There could be two class horses
Capable of beating their inferiors
 
SOPHIA'S STARLIGHT

TROPICAL ISLAND 

There is a fly in the ointment

THURSDAY'S CHILD rated 80
Can not be ruled out of this either

Going to split stake the three


Selection

£5.50 Win Bet TROPICAL ISLAND 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet SOPHIA'S STARLIGHT 9/4

£1.50 Win Bet THURSDAY'S CHILD 13/2






Pontefract 4.15

7/4 Oxford Comma, 15/8 Kyle Of Lochalsh
11/4 Wise Eagle, 15/2 Rajinsky.

Conditions race 2m 1f

OXFORD COMMA a 3yo filly
Has only raced 4 times before
She has 39 days off the track

Should she be the favourite
Against older established horses

Not sure she has improvement
But if we go right back to 1997
Every Pontefract stayers races
Both handicaps and otherwise

No 3 year old with under 6 runs
With a break of more than 19 days
Going to side with the elders

RAJINSKY has an unfit profile
Might win but hard to see why

Going to split stake this race

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet WISE EAGLE 5/1-11/2

£4.00 Win Bet KYLE OF LOCHLASH  6/4






Pontefract 5.20

7/2 Honour Your Dreams, 9/2 Profiteer, 6/1 Another Baar
6/1 Showhound, 8/1 Digital, 8/1 Jojo Rabbit, 8/1  Willolarupi
10/1 Winged Messenger, 14/1 Glendown, 20/1 Twelfth Knight.

5f Handicap

Interesting little race

Go back to 2001

October

Pontefract 5f races

Horses aged 3

Have a miserable 2-98 record

Only the second horse of the 98 to win

PROFITEER who did it 14 days ago
So that does undermine that statistic
But it is still a pretty awful record

This is a better race than last time
PROFITEER is going up in class
Being drawn 10 of 10 is a problem

Go back to 2001
Pontefract
5f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a weak 1-78 record
PROFITEER shares this problem

Opposing him drawn widest
And all of the other 3 year olds

PROFITEER
SHOWHOUND
WILLOLARUPI
WINGED MESSENGER

Go back to 2008
5f handicaps
Class 5 and higher
Any time of year
With over 6 runners
Horses aged 4
Over 25 career runs
Absent more than 4 weeks
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Return a poor 1-81 record
HONOUR YOUR DREAM fails this
Just not enough positives for me

ANOTHER BEAR has a chance
But dropping from 7f not a positive

TWELLFTH KNIGHT is hard to like

DIGITAL has topweight
Not run for 39 days now
Might win but have doubts

Like a couple of outsiders

Whose chances both increase

Because of negatives for others

GLENDOWN is one of those
Yet to run over 5f on soft ground
Has won on soft over 6 furlongs
Going to make him a part saver

JOJO RABBIT is underestimated
Run himself fit ground no issue

Selection

£3.50 Each Way JOJO RABBIT 14/1

£3.00 Win Bet GLENDOWN 8/1
  
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