3 Previews 
0 Account Bet  


No Account Bet 



Final Deliberations  
   
Similar message to yesterday
With just the 1 more preview
Grand National work included
I would like to repeat Monday
But that must be very unlikely 

No going with any bet today

Sporting chance in the opener

If that bet loses hoping the next
Will recover any losses from it

May come down to the last

Marginally prefer this selection


Taunton 4.50 

COME ON DU BERLAIS 5/1-9/2 

Each Way






Preview Selections

Taunton 2.20
Winterwatch 15/2-8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Newcastle 2.35
Polisud 1/1
Win Bet

Taunton 4.50 
Come On Du Berlais 5/1-9/2 
Each Way







Yesterday's Summary   

Could not have asked for better
Both the previews were winners
Ferrybridge drifted early morning
Heavily backed in the afternoon
Won easily gambled 8/1 into 4/1
Lightening Mahler won so easily
There was not a moments worry
Recent excellent form continues




PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
     

Taunton 2.20

9/4 Time To Dazzle, 9/2 Pottlerath, 7/1 Winterwatch
8/1 Asian Spice, Kayf Legend, 10/1 Iris Des Issards
11/1 A Mere Bagatelle, 14/1 No No Tonic, 16/1 Halligator
20/1 Escobedo, 25/1 Pak Army, 25/1 Play By The Rules
40/1 Iron Heart.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Horses rated 0-111

Some of these are unsafe

KAYF LEGEND topweight
Only has the 3 hurdle runs 
Yet has 395 days absence

Similar handicaps
During March and April
Run over 2m2f-2m4f
Horses with under 5 hurdle runs
Absent more than 155 days
Carrying 10st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-78 record in them
KAYF LEGEND is rejected 

POTTLERATH is a 9yo
Very exposed with 36 hurdle runs
May find 161 days off a big ask
No horses as exposed as he is 
Have won similar races with breaks
 
NO NO TONIC a 10yo mare
Also exposed with 34 hurdle runs
Opposing her with 46 days off
Can not match her to any winner

ASIAN SPICE is a mare

March and April
Similar handicaps show
Mares coming from 2m races
With under 12 career starts
Absent more than 17 days
Beaten on their last start
Have a 0-72 record in them
ASIAN SPICE fails this angle

HALLIGATOR a 7yo
Has raced once in 140 days
Felt she had too much to prove
A MERE BAGATELLE a 7yo
Has a big weight and absence
Can not match him to a winner

IRIS DES ISSARDS a 6yo
Lightly raced has a chance
Can not rule him out on profile

Two options appealed

Option 1

£6.50 Win Bet  Winterwatch 15/2-8/1
£3.50 Win Bet  Time To Dazzle 2/1-9/4

Option 2

Winterwatch 15/2-8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4

Because Time To Dazzle
Has raced once in 95 days
And there are 1-2-3-4 places
Going with an each way bet

Selection

WINTERWATCH 15/2-8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4




Newcastle 2.35

5/6 Polisud, 5/1 Celestial Fashion
5/1 Into The Sunset, 7/1 Milan Echo
8/1 Not Now Tayto

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

Official Ratings

100 Polisud
94 Into The Sunset
92 Milan Echo
81 Not Now Tayto
78 Celestial Fashion

POLISUD rated 100

Has a class edge over this field

Only faces horses rated 94 or less

INTO THE RED rated 94
Has ran once in 19 months now

MILAN ECHO rated 92
Has 131 days off the track
His trainers absence record
With horses off over 84 days
Stands at a winless 0-63 record

NOT NOW TAYTO rated 81
Was hammered just 15 days ago
Raw inexperienced with 3 runs
Just has not shown enough

POLISUD's main market rival

CELESTIAL FASHION is a mare 
Rated only 78 after 15 hurdle runs
Just exposed her as very limited
She also faces 48 days absence

POLISUD may outclass these

Selection

POLISUD 1/1

Win Bet






Taunton 4.50

7/2 Cooleenymore, 4/1 Come On Du Berlais 9/2 Our Nel
11/2 Jane Du Berlais, 8/1 Annie Wicks, 8/1 Penny Mallow
12/1 Sevenofus, 14/1 Poet's Reflection, 16/1 Lady Pacifico
20/1 Nathan Walker, 50/1 Firefly Lane.

Mares' Handicap Chase 2m 4f

JANE DU BERLAIS topweight

Comes here with awful figures

PU Fell PU PU PU

Can she improve on better ground
When coming down in class as well
Maybe but don't see enough in her

Feel there is a class gap in this race

5 horses rated 89 and more 
6 horses rated 83 and lower

Those lower rated look marooned
Short of class as the lower weights

LADY PACIFICO is one rated 83
Looks underraced and unproven

ANNIE WICKS is rated only 78
Well beaten on her chase debut
Only in a novice and a small field

NATHAM WALKER rated too low

POET'S REFLECTION rated 75
Does not bring enough backclass

SEVONUS is rated only 74
Limited and pulled up last time
FIREFLY LANE should struggle

Should involve 4 horses

PENNY MALLOW a 10yo
Comes here cold and struggling
Don't want a 10yo who last time out
Was beaten as far as she was

COOLEENYMORE is an 8yo
Having her chase debut today
Not sure I would want that

March and April
Mares Handicap Chases
Any distance
Any class
Unraced chasers
Having their chase debut
Have a 2-42 record
Those with under 18 runs
Have a 0-35 record in them

COOLEENYMORE fails this
They have won in other months
Would not see her as a negative
But has plenty to prove in this
And she is not the biggest horse
For a chase debut on a tight track
With plenty of runners as well

OUR NEL is shortlistable
Work in progress 2 chase runs
She came out clear 2nd best

COME ON DE BERLAIS a 6yo
Ran well on her chase debut
When entitled to have needed it

Selection

COME ON DE BERLAIS 4/1-9/2

Each Way






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES    


Saturday April 13th

Aintree 4.00

Grand National
 
5/1 Corach Rambler, 10/1 I Am Maximus, 12/1 Vanillier
12/1 Panda Boy, 14/1 Meetingofthewaters, 16/1 Mahler Mission
16/1 Kitty's Light, 16/1 Noble Yeats, 20/1 Mr Incredible
20/1 Galvin, 25/1 Minella Indo, 25/1 Capodanno
25/1 Limerick Lace, 25/1 Chemical Energy, 33/1 Latenightpass
33/1 Adamantly Chosen, 33/1 Delta Work, 33/1 Threeunderthrufive
40/1 Conflated, 40/1 Coko Beach, 40/1 Nassalam, 40/1 Stattler
50/1 Ain't That A Shame, Galia Des Liteaux, 50/1 Desertmore House
50/1 Where It All Began, 50/1 Annual Invictus, 50/1 Monbeg Genius
66/1 Glengouly, 66/1 Angels Dawn, 66/1 James Du Berlais 66/1 Amirite
66/1 Shakem Up'arry, 66/1 Longhouse Poet, 66/1 Letsbeclearaboutit
66/1 Salvador Ziggy, 66/1 The Goffer, 66/1 Foxy Jacks, 66/1 Malina Girl
66/1 Famous Bridge, Janidil, 66/1 Ash Tree Meadow, 66/1 Ontheropes
66/1 Riaan, 66/1 Roi Mage, 66/1 Mac Tottie, 80/1 Minella Crooner

Part 2


Negative profiles so far


5/1 Corach Rambler
10/1 I Am Maximus
16/1 Mahler Mission
16/1 Noble Yeats
20/1 Galvin
25/1 Minella Indo
25/1 Chemical Energy
33/1 Delta Work
40/1 Nassalam
40/1 Conflated  
40/1 Coko Beach  

Not yet rejected

12/1 Vanillier
25/1 Capodanno
  


MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

He is a 7yo

He has just 6 chase runs
That combination a worry

Recent Grand National winners
Had the following Chase runs

9 7 10 19 16 10 13 10 14
27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11

The winner with 7 chases
Was Noble Yeats in 2022

MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

He has one fewer chase runs
But he might have less weight
So you can balance things out

But when Noble Yeats won this
The first 7yo winner in decades
He had more prep runs that year
Than every one of his opponents
That' what got him home in 2022

The other concerns for me
 
MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

Is still technically a 6 year old

His 7th birthday is 4 days later

So he looks very raw to me

He may have had 6 chase runs

But by unseating at the 1st fence
On penultimate race in February
Means he has had just 5 chases
So he is not going to be my bet

Recent Grand National winners
Had the following Chase runs

9 7 10 19 16 10 13 10 14
27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11

In recent years

A clear bias to lighter raced types


Horses with over 19 chase runs
Have a 1-105 record since 2010 
Have a 0-76 record since 2014

The horses with 20 + chase runs
All have to be questioned here
A selection of some of them below

GALVIN
ELDORADO ALLEN
DELTA WORK
FOXY JACKS

KITTYS LIGHT has 25 chases

That looks worryingly high to me
When just the 1 race in 99 days 
Yes he's won a Scottish national
But he is still a flat bred horse
Never won off his current rating
He is a horse that has beat stats
Has been a menace once or twice
Winning after I have opposed him
He may again but not for me

MR INCREDIBLE is wrong 
He unseated in last years race
Saddle slipped at the 24th fence
But he has raced just once since
One run in 12 months a problem
Straight onto the negatives list
If he wins this with that profile
I won't preview the 2025 race
Assuming there even is one then

PANDA BOY

Back on February 5th

Told you I had backed him

He was around 22/1-25/1
 
He is being laid out for the race
From a shrewd significant yard
The stable have just had a winner
Which eases stable form doubts
So I am very happy with my bet 

Just a couple of concerns now

PANDA BAY is only about 12/1

No value at all in the price now

He does have 70 days absence

Winners absence (days)

32 25 62 24 31 84 34 29 23 35 
58 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20 
25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23

30 of the last 31 winners 

Ran within the last 62 days

PANDA BAY has not done that

He's still easily on the positives
But given his price I'd be thinking
He could end up as a saver option

Leaving it there

Get the impression

Fast running out of positives

Don't want to waste time yet
On rank outsiders who may not run
Will look at those nearer the race

*******************************************************
*******************************************************