9 Previews  
1 Account Bet 




Account Bet 

    
Curragh 4.00
  
£4.50 Each Way BOLD OPTIMIST 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet HARRY'S HILL  8/1-7/1 






Final Deliberations 

Apologies for being late


Shergar Cup day

Several detest this meeting
Don't take that view myself
I dislike all of them equally 
It does bring certain clarity
The field sizes are all static
The card offers symmetry


Before my better options 
I've had a strange little bet
Mixes football and racing

Novelty Bet 
 
Curragh 2.15 - IDES OF MARCH  6/4

Community Shield - HARLAND 3/1 to score

Each way Double

No idea if this is a stupid bet
But just came to me instantly
I'm surprised they allowed it
Maybe the only firm that does
And right now I quite like this


Another bet just based on instinct


Newmarket 2.30

£7.00 Win Bet JET PACKER 7/1-8/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet RUFF JUSTICE 2/1

This is far too unstable a race
To consider for an account bet
Jet Packer flopped last time out
We were on him at 16/1 that day
I just think he is too big a price


Haydock

AL MUBHIR 100/30

Each Way

1/4 Odds (2 Places)

Another unstable race
With just 5 runners left
Just not suitable to stake
But a morning non runner
Opens up an opportunity
No banker but quite like it


Account Bet Options

Choice of two races



Curragh 4.00
  
£4.50 Each Way BOLD OPTIMIST 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet HARRY'S HILL  8/1-7/1 


Haydock 4.10

THIS YEARS LOVE 11/2-5/1

Each Way 

  



BOLD OPTIMIST in a classier race
Which also has the better angles in it
 
THIS YEARS LOVE in a lower grade
Don't normally like the bottomweight 
Mick Easterby of all people trains him
But felt he had fitness and momentum 
One very annoying problem the price 
The offices are shorter than Betfair
But could be about to push him out
He's around 13/2 on Betfair right now
But we may have to settle for shorter





 
Preview Selections
  

Ascot 1.35
Badri 4/1 
Each Way

Ascot 2.10
£7.00 Win Bet Spirit Mixer 6/1
£3.00 Win Bet Samui 9/4-5/2 (Reserve)

Curragh 2.15
Ides Of March  6/4-13/8
Win Bet

Newmarket 2.30
£7.00 Win Bet Jet Packer 7/1-8/1
£3.00 Win Bet Ruff Justice 2/1

Haydock 3.00
Al Mubhir 100/30
Each Way
1/4 Odds (2 Places)

Ascot 3.20  
£3.50 Each Way Thunder Blue 12/1-11/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Imperial Guard 6/1-11/2

Curragh 4.00
£4.50 Each Way Bold Optimist 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Harry's Hill 8/1-7/1 

Haydock 4.10
This Years Love 11/2-5/1
Each Way

Redcar 4.55 

£7.50 Win Bet Carlton 9/1-10/1
£1.25 Win Bet Greenlightforgo 10/1-9/1
£1.25 Win Bet Red Force One 7/1






Yesterday's Summary

Results were excellent yesterday
Luckless start a stylish recovery
Classy Al would easily have won 
Had he not suffered a traffic jam
Rokuni then won to get us level
Letter Of The Law an £8 win bet
Made all backed from 8/1 to 5/1
We could not lose at that stage
Messed up the Flavius Titus race 
But finished with a decent winner
Nouvel Espoir winning in Ireland
Good effort 3 winners in 5 races
When it should really have been 4
 
 


PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
   

  


Ascot 1.35

7/2 Adaay In Devon, 4/1 Badri, 4/1 Jordan Electrics
8/1 Desert Cop, 8/1 Holkham Bay, 9/1 Kylian
12/1 Dream Composer, Night On Earth, 25/1 Muker
25/1 Thunderbear.

Shergar Dash

5f Handicap (Class 2)

13 Past renewals

No 5 year olds in this renewal

This might help the 4 year olds
But they all have unsafe profiles

THUNDERBEAR is a 4 year old
Topweigh and drops down from 7f
No past winners managed that

All 15 past winners
Ran within the last 37 days
No horses aged 4 or older
Won absent over 28 days

DESERT COP a 4yo off 49 days
HOLKAM BAY a 4yo off 56 days
 
Go back to 1997
Ascot
All aged handicaps
Run over 5f
Run in Class 2 
Horses aged 3 
Over 6 career runs
Absent over 22 days
Have a 0-31 record
The following pair fail

ADDAY IN DEVON
KYLIAN

DREAM COMPOSER ran last week
Beaten 20 lengths looks far too much

MUKER does not offer us enough

JORDANS ELECTRICS is an 8yo
Comes here after a recent hat trick
None as old as him have won this 

All 15 past winners
Came from Class 2 handicaps 
   
Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-23 record in this race
The following horses all fail

ADDAY IN DEVON  
HOLKAM BAY  
NIGHT ON EARTH  
  
BADRI avoids any major flaws

Feels an obvious conclusion

Too many seem to agree with it

But the angles point that way


Selection

BADRI 4/1

Each Way








Ascot 2.10

2/1 Samui, 6/1 Fox Journey, 6/1 Spirit Mixer
7/1 Sheradann, 8/1 Ranch Hand, 10/1 Struth,
10/1 Tides Of War, 14/1 Beamish, Wickywickywheels
16/1 Zealandia, 20/1 The Grand Visir.
 
2m Handicap

Opposing the older horses

All Shergar Cup races
Since the meeting began

Horses aged 8 or more
Absent over 12 days are 0-53
 
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 29 days are 0-47
The following all fail this

RANCH HAND
ZEALANDIA  

Shergar Cup races
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 15 days
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-74 record in them
The following horses fail this
BEAMISH fails this statistic

THE GRAND VISIR a 10yo
Loos underraced this year

WICKYWICKYWHEELS a 6yo
Recenty 50/1 in a weaker grade 
May lack the class and stamina
He also faces the widest stall

SHERDANA ran last Saturday
In a Goodwood 1m 6f handicap
TIMES OR WAR ran there too
Neither of them appealed much
They started at 100/1 and 40/1
This is the same graded of race
Neither look obvious winners

SPIRIT MIXER is a 6 year old
He ran over 2m 4f at Goodwood
That was only 8 days ago now
Will that race come too quickly ?

Go back to 2003
Class 2 handicaps over 2m
Horses from 2m 3f or more
Running within 9 days
Return a 0-12 record so far
Inconclusive but none have won

FOX JOURNEY is a 4 year old
Lot of weight with 9st 11lbs
Especially as he is a small type
 
He has to prove him stamina
His sire has a am 6f winner
None yet have won over further

Go back to 1997
Class 2 handicaps
Run over 2m and further
Horses aged 4
Over 12 runs
Absent over 15 days
Carrying 9st 10lbs or more
Have a 0-19 record in them 
FOX JOURNEY is next to try

Take the same sample size
Go back to 1997
Class 2 handicaps
Run over 2m and further
Horses aged 4
Over 16 runs
Absent over 15 days
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
There is a 0-40 record
STRUTH fails this 0-40 angle

 
SAMUI

Reserve runner

He is an irish improver

If there is no non runner

Then he wont be running

If he does run he may win

Making him a saver bet

SPIRIT MIXER fails a weak angle
Not sure if that will stop him or not
But he is a well handicapped horse
And one we backed at Goodwood

Going to split stake this

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SPIRIT MIXER 6/1

£3.00 Win Bet SAMUI 9/4-5/2








Curragh 2.15

6/4 Ides Of March, 6/1 Lunigiana, 7/1 Comanche Brave
7/1 Knockmark, 15/2 Source Code, 17/2 Lady In Paris
10/1 Lost President, 12/1 Monumental, 18/1 Montpellier Green
20/1 Whiskey And Beer, 25/1 Dandy Khan, South Shore Island
33/1 Carla Ridge, Winter Bonfire, 40/1 Believeth, Crystalaire
40/1 Peaceful Dove, Rebel Lily, 200/1 Chica Guerrera.

2yo Maiden 6f

Aidan O'Brien has the favourite

IDES OF MARCH with 2 runs
Drops down from a 7f race

LUNINGIANA has also 2 runs
She is stepping up in trip from 5f

Choosing between this pair

Just feel Aidan's Horse is safer

We have the better trainer/jockey
Have a colt against a filly from 5f
Has a much better draw as well
Comes out ahead on the numbers

Didn't see much strength in depth

SOURCE CODE is unraced
Far from safe drawn wide in 18
KNOCKMARK unraced and drifting

LOST PRESIDENT has ran once
Has to improve a great deal to win
The trainers record with 2 year olds
Stands at a horrible 1-84 so far

MONUMENTAL looks a 2nd string

SOUTH SHORE ISLAND has 2 runs
But stall 19 may not be an advantage

Almost feel physically sick saying it

Trust Aidan

I'd be half tempted each way at 7/4
But just my view bit extreme for some

Selection 

IDES OF MARCH 6/4-13/8

Win Bet






Newmarket 2.30

6/4 Ruff Justice, 6/4 Pappa Louis
13/2 Saxonia, 8/1 Jet Packer.

2yo Nursery 7f

4 runners
 
All have chances

Even the outsider
  
JET PACKER

If the name rings a bell

We backed him last time at 16/1 

Only 9 days ago at Goodwood

That was a class 2 handicap
Big field and he was doing ok
Before he faded back to 14th

He has the most experience
The fittest profile in the race
Only horse conditioned at 7f

Not saying he is going to win

But I think he has a big chance

Should not be the outsider 

Going to have a saver bet

PAPPA LOUIS the favourite
One of the obvious options
But he was only 66/1 last time

RUFF JUSTICE around 2/1
Brings nursery form into this
And comes here on a hat trick

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet JET PACKER 7/1-8/1
 
£3.00 Win Bet RUFF JUSTICE 2/1






Haydock 3.00

6/4 Anmaat,7/2 Al Mubhir
4/1  Bracken's Laugh, 13/2 Certain Lad
12/1 Mujtaba, 12/1 Regal Reality.

Rose Of Lancaster Stakes 

Group race 10f

ANMAAT is clear on ratings

But he is a 6yo with 432 days off

Last years winner was a 6yo
He became the oldest winner 
In the previous 27 renewals 
And he did not have an absence

ANMAAT will need the run

May still have the class to win

But looked at similar races

July to September
Group races
Any distance
No horses aged 6 or more
Won absent over 103 days 
ANMAAT absent far longer

REGAL REALITY is a 9yo

CERTAIN LAD an 8yo off 49 days

MUJTABA is a 6 year old
Looks the owners 2nd string

Right or wrong

BRACKENS LAD is a 3yo
Fait chance but 51 days off
Past renewals show
Horses aged 3
Over 4 career starts
Absent over 29 days
Have a 0-13 record in this

AL MUBHIR won at Sandown

Felt he was the sensible bet

BRACKENS LAD a non runner

Now just 5 runners

This felt the right strategy 

Each Way with just 2 places

Protects us if the favourite wins


Selection

AL MUBHIR 100/30

Each Way

1/4 Odds (2 Places)







Ascot 3.20

13/8 Jarraaf, 6/1 Daring Legend, 6/1 Imperial Guard
8/1 Grand City Hall, 10/1 Thunder Blue, 12/1 Action Point
12/1 Venture Capital, 14/1 Aramram, 14/1 Beyond Borders
16/1 General Assembly, 20/1 Dapper Valley
40/1 Bulldog Drummond.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-96

JARRAF feels short around 7/4

Only had 4 career starts so far
The last of them just 29 days ago

Past renewals show
Horses with under 6 runs
Running within 8 weeks
Have a 0-12 record in this

August
Similar 6f Handicaps
Horses with under 6 runs
Running within 8 weeks
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-23 record in this
JARRAF fails this statistic
Bit too short on that profile

GRAND CITY HALL is out
Only horse coming from 5f

DARING LEGEND is unsafe
Going up in class after 12 runs

Similar races show
Horses with over 10 runs
Coming from Class 3 or lower
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-19 record in this race
Have a 0-39 record at all tracks
DARING LEGEND fails this
BULLGOD DRUMMOND does

ARAMRAM has 54 days off
Faces a tough weight with that

 
IMPERIAL GUARD is respected
No problem with drawn widest

There is an interesting profile 

Past renewals since 2014

Horses with 6-15 races
Running within 15 days
Coming from 6f or shorter 
Not beaten over 10 lengths  
At least 3 runs this season
Carrying 9st 10lbs or shorter
Horses with the above profile
Have a 6-19 record in this
Winning in the following years
2014 2017 2018 2021 2022 2023

THUNDER BLUE has this profile
 
Selection

£3.50 Each Way THUNDER BLUE 12/1-11/1

£3.00 Win Bet IMPERIAL GUARD 6/1-11/2







Curragh 4.00
 
5/1 Greek Flower, 11/2 Samrogue, 11/2 So Majestic
6/1 Little Queenie, 7/1 Dontspoilasale, 7/1 Stag Night
15/2 Zarra Ellis, 10/1 Harry's Hill, 12/1 Only Spoofing
20/1 Bold Optimist, 20/1 Rathbranchurch.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-96
 
LITTLE QUEENIE a 5yo mare
Has topweight and 10st rated 96

3 of the 4 market leaders
Are older mares which is unusual

If you go back to 2010

Every 5f handicap
Any time of year
Run in class 2
There arre 432 races 
Mares aged 5 or older
Won just 6 of these races

They have a 6-156 record
Those with 8st 11ls or more
Have a 0-77 record in them

LITTLE QUEENIE fails this

GREEK FLOWER fails this too

SAMROGUE also fails this
She only fails this by a pound
But she has another problem
She's raced once in 119 days
Hardly ideal for a 6yo mare

STAG NIGHT has 10 stone
Combined with 92 days off

ONLY SPPOFING is a 10yo
 
DONTSPOILASALE a 4yo

Go back to 2009
Curragh 5f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Absent more than 21 days
Have a weak 6-127 record
Those with over 11 runs
Coming from a  5f race
Beaten last time out are 0-25
DONTSPOILASALE fails this

Not the most enticing angle

But 5f handicaps
Run in Class 2 in August
Show 4 year olds
Over 17 career starts
Absent over 23 days
Have a 0-14 record in them
DONTSPOILASALE fails this
And not had much recent racing
Just the 2 runs in 5 over months
Would not be my first choice

SO MAJESTIC is a 4yo filly
There are some 4yo fillies winning
None with her weight though

Go back to 2009
Class 2 handicaps (5f)
Run any time of year
Fillies aged 4
Moe than 9st 3lbs weight
Have a 0-38 record in them
SO MAJESTIC has 9st 11lbs

RATHBRANCHCHURCH a 4yo
Very exposed with 30 runs now
Career high mark and both wins
Came in weaker raced than this

ZARRA ELLIS is a 3yo filly
Happy to avoid with 38 days off
And when drawn in stall 1 


HARRY'S HILL is a 6yo

He could be overpriced here

Fit and running consistently

Opposed him in the Rockingham
When facing 6 weeks off that day
He then had a bad draw at Dundalk
No class 2 handicap there over 5f
Has gone to a horse drawn 10 +
HARRY HILL was drawn 11 of 11
Ran at Cork just 15 days ago
Ran well enough finishing in 5th
Last years winner prepped there
 
BOLD OPTIMIST also ran there
Ran a good 4th place at Cork
Finishing just ahead of Harrys Hill
He's less experienced with 9 runs 
But may have some improvement


Selection

£4.50 Each Way BOLD OPTIMIST 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet HARRY'S HILL  8/1-7/1 






Haydock 4.10

7/2 Salamanca Lad, 9/2 Golden Myrrh, 9/2 Remoji
13/2 Empire Of Light, 7/1 Thewind Cries Mary
7/1 This Years Love, 8/1 Zipster, 16/1 Lokana
16/1 Mystical Maria, 25/1 On Point.
 
8f Handicap (3yo)

Long history to this race

The winner usually has 5 + runs

You can with with fewer runs
The 2002 winner had 3 races
But the majority had more runs
  
Past winners of this

Had the following runs

5 3 6 7 7 12 8 5 9 6 11 5

Going to oppose the horses
With under 5 career starts

REMOJI has 3 runs and topweight
MYSTICAL MARIA has 3 runs
THEWIND CRIES MARY has 4 runs

Ralph Beckett
Has won the last 2 renewals
GOLDEN MYRHH could make it 3

Slightly cautious with her
She is a filly with 5 weeks off
Plenty of weight with 9st 9lbs

Go back to 2007
August
3yo handicaps (8f)
Class 4 or lower
Fillies
More than 5 career runs
Absent more than 27 days
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-17 record in them
GOLDEN MYRHH has this profile
LOKANA also has this profile too

Similar races

July August and September
Show horses with the above profile
Have a modest 1-45 record

She may go and win
But decided to go elsewhere

EMPIRE OF LIGHT could win
No past winners dropped from 10f
But several did at other tracks
He is getting quite exposed though
ON POINT doesn't appeal much

SALAMANCE LAD is on a roll
He has just landed a hat trick
Big weight but could easily win

ZIPSTER goes up in distance
Ran a bit flat last time at York
But you can not rule him out

THIS YEARS LOVE has 8 runs
Goes up in class but progressing
Just failed in a hat trick bid last time
But had done plenty out in front
Chasing a runaway outsider
Just caught late finished second
Like his profile and momentum
Career best figure last time out
Gets a stone weight off the favourite


Selection
 
THIS YEARS LOVE 11/2-6/1

Each Way


 
Redcar 4.55

2/1 Apostle, 6/1 Ski Jump, 8/1 Gift Of Raaj
8/1 Greenlightforgo, Red Force One, 10/1 Grey Nyle
10/1 King Of Unicorns, 14/1 Unregulated, 16/1 Carlton
16/1 Grifter, 25/1 A Shining Moon
33/1 Sweet Painted Lady.

Handicap 1m 6f

Horses rated 0-61

APOSTLE is a 3yo filly

Just 3 career runs

Coming up a mile in trip

It is an absurd profile
Have to oppose her on it

She will probably go and win
As there is a lack of options

Such as older horses
With few runs this year

GIFT OF RAAJ is a 9 year old
He's raced just twice in 7 months

KING OF UNICORNS a 7yo
Has raced just 3 times in 13 months

RED FORCE ONE is a 9yo
Comes here beaten 48 lengths last time

SKI JUMP is a 4 year old

Will he stay sired by Dark Angel
Without a run in 36 days now ?

Horses sired by Dark Angel
Running over 1m 6f or more
Absen more than 29 days
Have a poor 1-60 record
That winner was on firm at Bath
In a much smaller field than this
 
Tough race

Going with a 3 pronged attack

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet CARLTON 9/1-10/1

£1.25 Win Bet GREENLIGHTFORGO 10/1-9/1

£1.25 Win Bet RED FORCE ONE  7/1

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