10 Previews
1 Account Bet 





Account Bet  

Ascot 1.45

KINGS LYNN 13/2-6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5 




 
  


     


Final Deliberations      
 
Just a magnificent weekend of sport 
Wimbledon and the football Sunday
Simply overshadow everything else 

Sundays racing cards are laughable
Only the 2 meetings and threadbare
But who cares I will find something

Starts with high class racing today

10 Previews

Account bet winner the priority

There were 4 genuine options

 
Ascot 1.45

KINGS LYNN 13/2 -6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5 

He looks a solid each way bet
Horse well treated on old form
Strong contender for the bet





York  2.00 

£3.50 Each Way CUBAN TIGER 12/1-11/1

£4.00 Win Bet TELEMARK 5/2

1/5 Odds 1-2-3-4-5

Cuban Tiger interesting on paper
But hard to know what to expect
No guarantees he will perform 
So felt he was on the risky side






York 4.15

THE FLYING SEAGULL 4/1

Win Bet
 
This one is such a left field bet
Would be on the outrageous side
Ran yesterday so one problem
He might just withdraw later on
If he runs he could easily hack up
With a strong chance he also flops
High risk but does have positives 


York 5.25

TRILBY  8/1-7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


If the jockey rides him properly
With a recent run he should win
All I am ask for is to run his race
With a 5 place cushion comforting




Close decision 

KING'S LYNN or TRILBY

Going with the Ascot bet

KING'S LYNN in the 1.45









Preview Selections  
  
Wexford 1.00
Nouvotic  9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Ascot 1.45
King's Lynn 13/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 

York  2.00 
£3.50 Each Way Cuban Tiger 12/1-11/1
£4.00 Win Bet Telemark 5/2 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Newmarket 2.12
£8.00 Win Bet Lou Lou's Gift 7/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Arisaig 9/2-5/1
 
Ascot 2.20
Sonny Liston 5/2-11/4
Each Way

York 3.10
£4.00 Each Way Crack Shot 14/1-12/1
£1.00 Win Bet Remaadd 10/1
£1.00 Win Bet  Botanical 8/1-7/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5-6

Newmarket 4.00   
£2.50 Each Way Gorak 12/1-11/1 
£2.00 Each Way Percy's Lad 12/1-14/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Divine Libra  8/1-9/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

York 4.15
The Flying Seagull 7/2-4/1
Win Bet

Newmarket 4.35 
£5.00 Win Bet Inisherin 9/4-5/2 
£5.00 Place Bet Vandeek 1/1 -10/11

York 5.25
Trilby 8/1-7/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5








 
Yesterday's Summary  

Reasonable enough message
Which finished W P L L W L
Best bet of the day won well
Involvement ran a great race
Could not lose after his victory
The two short priced horses
Produced a winner and loser
And canceled each other out
Leadenhall ran a great race
Several think he was unlucky
If more luck might have won
Wen Moon failed in the last
My worries played out there
Overall felt we won the day
Given the best bet hacked up
 
 





PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
  
  


Wexford 1.00

7/4 Nouvotic, 9/4 Dysart Dasher, Lightkeeper
14/1 Impakt St Georges, 20/1 Glin Road Dream
22/1 Nels Son, Premier Gale, 28/1 Knocknagoran Lady,
33/1 Tommies Call, 66/1 Fix It For Me, Handy Manny
66/1 Ol Man Dingle, 100/1 Tom's My Star
100/1 Waramunga.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Should involve 3-4 horses

PENNY WEST is a reserve
May not run but must be noted
Coming from Willie Mullins
But as an unraced 5yo mare
Would not be my first choice

DYSART DANCER is a 7yo

Willie Millins first string

Not been seen for 391 days

She is impossible to read
Said to be a big gangly horse
My worry would be the track
Very sharp small in circumference
It could well catch him out

LIGHTKEEPER is a player
Has some form and experience
But he is just a syndicate horse
And his figures are regressive

NOUVOTIC in contrast
May have more improvement

Selection

NOUVOTIC 9/4-5/2

Win Bet








Ascot 1.45

 7/1 King's Lynn, 9/1 Albasheer, 9/1 Fair Wind
10/1 Get It, 11/1 Existent, 12/1 Badri, 12/1 Brave Nation
12/1 Rohaan, Woolhampton, 14/1 Dream Composer
14/1 Haymaker, 14/1 Jumbeau, 14/1 Lethal Nymph
14/1 Russet Gold, 28/1 Vintage Clarets
50/1 Conservationist 66/1 Toca Madera.

5f Handicap

Highly competitive sprint

Just following some angles

4 year olds

Have quite a poor 2-60 record

Horses aged 4
Over 8 career starts
Have a 0-56 record

Right or wrong
Opposing these 4 year olds

BRAVE NATION
JUMBEAU
WOOLHAMPTO 
RUSSET GOLD
CONSERVATIONIST
FAIR WIND

EXISTENT looks on the bounce
Comes from a poor trial race too
DREAM COMPOSER ran there
All 22 horses from that race lost

You want a run within 35 days
BADRI has 6 weeks absence

ALBASHEER is unsafe
Coming from a pattern race

ROHAAN is topweight
Exposed and looks underraced
Not enough 5f form to interest me

Shortlist

GET IT 

KINGS LYNN

LETHAL NYMPH 

KINGS LYNN first choice
Won the Temple Stakes 2022
Left him very badly handicapped
Long road down from 108 to 94



Ran in this race last year

Drawn in the outside stall

Raced off 107 not beaten far

Now runs off a much lower 94



Selection
 
KINGS LYNN 13/2-7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5 









York  2.00

6/1 Blue For You, 6/1 Telemark
9/1 Northern Express, 10/1 La Trinidad, 11/1 Empirestateofmind
12/1 Brunch, 14/1 Sailthisshipalone, Stone Soldier, 16/1 Cuban Tiger
16/1 Ron O, 20/1 Austrian Theory, Rhoscolyn, 25/1 Imperial Fighter
33/1 Rhythm Master, 33/1 Yermanthere

8f Handicap

Since this was upgraded in 2014 
Most winners have been uniform

Ideal profile

3-4-5 year olds
Under 19 career runs 
Running in the last month 
Not draw in the higher stalls

Recent winning draws

From stalls 3 8 6 2 1 7 6 7

RON O has the widest draw

York 8f races
Under 23 runners
Since as far back as 1997
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a nasty 1-202 record  
The following both fail this

RON O 

AUSTRIAN THEORY

This was upgraded in 2014
Becoming a class 2 handicap
Since then horses aged 6 +
Have a 0-54 record in this

These are the wrong age

STONE SOLDIER is a 7yo
Going up in class and distance

LA TRINIDAD a past winner
But a 7yo on a career high mark

BRUNCH  an underraced 7yo 

YERMANTHERE is a 6 year old
Bounced last time not safe enough

RHYTHM MASTER a 6 year old
Hard to like with several months off
EMPIRESTAMEOMIND a 6yo
The same issue absent 287 days

RHOSCOLYN another 6 year old
Who may not peak until Goodwod

NORTHERN EXPRESS a 6yo
Has a problematic draw in stall 13

BLUE FOR YOU is a 6 year old
Won last years race drawn quite low
This year he is drawn in stall 12

Does not sound too problematic
But this statistic adds some clarity
 
Go back to 2000
York 8f races
Any class of race
Any time of year 
Horses aged 5 or more
Over 19 career starts
Absent more than 6 days
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-91 record in them
The following all fail this

NORTHERN EXPRESS 
BLUE FOR YOU 
RON O 
BRUNCH

IMPERIAL FIGTER looks avoidable

SAILTHISSHIPPALONE is a 3yo
He has raced just once in 9 months

TELEMARK is a 3yo
Lightly raced up in trip
He should be respected
But this angle worries me

May to August
8f handicaps
Class 2 races
Horses aged 3
Under 9 career runs
Coming from 7f or shorter
Have a 0-33 record in them
Not many were fancied
He may be more of a saver


ELNAHMM

Favourite

Now a non runner

CUBAN TIGER is a 3yo
Lightly raced well drawn 
Could be the forgotten horse
He has won at Listed race
Had excuse at Royal Ascot
Badly drawn on the far side
Led a long way and faded
Suspect he went off too fast

 
Selection 

£3.50 Each Way CUBAN TIGER 12/1-11/1

£4.00 Win Bet TELEMARK 5/2

1/5 Odds
 
1-2-3-4-5







Newmarket 2.12

7/2 Lou Lou's Gift, 9/2 Miss Bodacious, 13/2 Arisaig
8/1 Divine Breath, 8/1 Hard To Resist, 8/1  Key To Cotai,
9/1 Heritage House, 9/1 Not Real, 12/1 Asian Daze
16/1 Rochelle, 33/1 Zenjabeela.


7f Fillies Handicap (3yo)

This quite a unique race

The only one of it's kind

ASIAN DAZE is topweight

HARD TO RESIST is out
No evidence of form or fitness
She is one of the exposed
HERITAGE HOUSE is too
Both of these look vulnerable

One thing never done in this
Horses from a class 5 handicap
Have never won this class 2 race

DIVINE BREATH attempts this
MISS BODACIOUS does too
She won a 0-76 on her last run
This is a much classier 0-97 race

KEY TO COTAI does not appeal
He's raced just once in 79 days
Nasty weight to carry 9st 7lbs

Horses with over 5 runs
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more 
Have a 0-31 record in this
The following all fail this

KEY TO COTAI 
HERITAGE HOUSE
ASIAN DAZE
 
NOT REAL has 3 runs
Several past winners had as well
None with more than 8st 12lbs
Respected but just not selected

ARISAIG is a positive
Several winners were like her
Coming from the Sandringham
She gets onto the staking plan

LOU LOU'S GIFT has 5 runs
Just won a class 4 handicap here
Big stable and looks an improver

What I like about her
Last time out Racing Post Ratings
She is 2lbs clear on their figures
Yet she is only 9th in the weights
Better figure than all of the horses
Who ran in Ascot's Sandringham 

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet LOU LOU'S GIFT 7/2-4/1

£2.00 Win Bet ARISAIG 9/2-5/1






Ascot 2.20

2/1 Quddwah, 3/1 Sonny Liston, 6/1 Embesto
9/1 Epictetus, 11/1 Bolster, 12/1 Royal Dubai
16/1 Ancient Rome, 18/1 Beshtani.

Summer Mile Stakes

Group 2 over 8f

QUDDWAH looks very talented

But has only had 3 career starts

The last 26 renewals show us
Every winner had 4 or more runs
25 of the 26 winners had 5 + runs 
QUDDWAH also has 73 days off
He is not a match and looks short

BOLSTER has a chance
ANCIENT ROME as well
But these horses come from 10f
No past winners of this did that 

None came from handicaps

SONNY LISTON does this
But that angle feels forgivable
Given his past group race form

There are dangers lurking
Some of them hard to read

ROYAL DUBAI clearly one
If we risk a Marco Botti bet
Ran just once in 127 days too
So he is not a risk free profile

EMBESTO is another
Can we be sure he is ready

Official ratings show

SONNY LISTON is better

The elephant in the room

Given there are 8 runners

Should we go each way 11/4

I would others will not want to

If not feel free to go win only

Selection

SONNY LISTON 5/2-11/4

Each Way








York 3.10
 
13/2 Haunted Dream, 7/1 Botanical,  7/1 Liberty Lane
8/1 Epic Poet, 10/1 Enfjaar, 11/1 Crack Shot, 12/1 Paradias
14/1 Astro King, 14/1 Remaadd, 16/1 Box To Box
16/1 Kingfisher King 20/1 Flying Frontier, 20/1 Penzance, 
25/1 Dual Identity, Euchen Glen 25/1 Kihavah, Take Heart
25/1 Tony Montana, 33/1 Marhaba The Champ
40/1 Loyal Touch, Machete, 50/1 Killybegs Warrior


John Smith's Cup

10f Handicap  

Covered this a couple of times
 
High draws look vulnerable

Go back to 2006
York 10f Handicaps 
Horses drawn 18 or more
Have a 1-77 record
Male horses are 0-72
 
Go back to 1998
York
10f Handicaps 
Horses drawn 20 or more
Absent more than 14 days
Have a 0-25 record in them

HAUNTED DREAM fails this
LIBERTY LANE does as well
 
EPIC POST another concern
Stall 22 looks rather damaging

FLYING FRONTIER underraced
KINGFISHER KING off too long

Staying with my shortlist
  
CRACK SHOT 33/1

BOTANICAL 10/1

ENFJAAR 14/1

BOTANICAL is a positive
But was hammered last time
  
ENFJAAR must be considered
One or two angles he has failed
Could be ignored for good reason
As he is an unexposed young horse
Who has just done a career best

Ran his profile carefully
19 horses shared it none won
Just 1 run this year my worry
REMAADD is the only 3yo
He's had a second run this year
He just came out as a bit safer
Going to add him as the saver
  
CRACK SHOT passes my angles

Selection

£4.00 Each Way CRACK SHOT 14/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet REMAADD 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet BOTANICAL 8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5-6






Newmarket 4.00 

7/2 Carrytheone, 13/2 Divine Libra, 7/1 Awaal
8/1 Gorak, 10/1 Aalto, 12/1 Mostabshir, Percy's Lad
14/1 Darkness,14/1 Lethal Levi, 16/1 Dark Thirty
16/1 Ropey Guest, Yorkshire, 20/1 Spirit Genie
20/1 Summerghand, Talis Evolvere, 25/1 Bless Him
33/1 Finn's Charm, 40/1 Abduction, 50/1 Londoner
50/1 Mustajaab.
 
Bunbury Cup 

7f Handicap

Sent some statistics midweek

Applied the found this shortlist
 
DIVINE LIBRA 8/1 
MOTABSHIR 14/1 
GORAK 9/1 
PERCY'S LAD 16/1 
CARRYTHEONE 7/2

Underwhelmed by those angles
Did not find any break through
Made me think this is too hard

AWAAL has been well backed
But he has 266 days off the track

The last 25 winners of this race
Raced within the previous 6 weeks
So not going to follow the money
When he also carries topweight

Two of my shortlist have big weights

CARRYTHEONE a 7yo has 9st 11lbs

MOTABASHIR has to carry 9st 12lbs

The last Bunbury Cup winner
To carry 9st 11lbs or more weight
Was so long ago back in 1994
That Lester Piggot was riding him !

So opposing these higher weights

AWAAL 
CARRYTHEONE
MOTABASHIR

Against the 10 year olds

SUMMERGHAND
BLESS HIM

ROPEY GUEST looks underraced
LETHAL LEVI is not a negative
But opposing him from a 6f race
TALIS EVOLVERE out drawn 1

AALTO looks quite interesting

He is a 4yo with a good recent run
Momentum and could be improving
My statistics failed him on two points

Go back to 2004
Horses rated 92 or lower
Have a 0-40 record in this race
AALTO is rated lower only 88

The last 13 winners
Came from Class 2 or higher
Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-20 record since 2009
AALTO comes from a class 4 
If he wins he wins not first choice

YORKSHIRE fails the same angles

Staying with my shortlist

With the big weights taken out

DIVINE LIBRA 8/1 

GORAK 12/1-11/1

PERCY'S LAD 12/1-14/1
  
They have one thing in common
All come from the same race
The Buckingham Palace stakes 
The 2014 2020 2023 winners did
 
Selection

£2.50 Each Way GORAK 12/1-11/1

£2.00 Each Way  PERCY'S LAD 12/1-14/1

£1.00 Win Bet DIVINE LIBRA 8/1-9/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






York 4.15

4/1 The Flying Seagull 6/1 Alashos, 7/1 Tuscan Point, 
8/1 Atomic Mass 9/1 Eighteen Fourteen, 9/1 Perfidia
9/1  Sir Palamedes 10/1 East Tyrone, 11/1 Death Or Glory
12/1 Call Me Harswell, Triple Charged, 14/1 Mrbluesky
14/1 Oakley Boy, 16/1 Go On Rosie.

6f Nursery

Normally an impossible race

Previewing this for one horse

THE FLYING SEAGULL

Ran in a Novice yesterday
Drawn quite high at Chester
Played up in the stalls a bit
Eased once beaten lost 6 lengths

Going from a Novice

To a Nursery the next day

Would be very unorthodox

And he carries topweight as well

But yesterdays run

Will either be a huge advantage

Or might come too soon for him

I'd view it as an advantage myself

Selection

THE FLYING SEAGUL 7/2-4/1

Win Bet





Newmarket 4.35

5/2 Inisherin, 7/2 Vandeek, 7/1 Kinross
7/1 Regional, 7/1 River Tiber, 12/1 Jasour
12/1 Mill Stream, 16/1 Swingalong, 20/1 Khaadem
20/1 Mitbaahy, 25/1 Art Power, 50/1 Vadream.
 
July Cup

Group 1 over 6f
 
Horses aged 3-4-5 dominate 
If we go back to as far as 1939 
Only 1 horse aged 6 or more won
And that horse in 2006 was lucky

Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 1-82 record since 1997
So taking out the older horses

REGIONAL included in that
As a 6 year old from a 5f race
Horses from 5f races rarely win
They are now 0-31 since 2009
KHAADEM rejected as an 8yo

Very few horses win this race
With more than 20 career starts
They are 0-44  now since 2007
Several of the above fail this
MITBAAHY also fails this too
 
SWINGALONG is respected
MILL STREAM is also a positive 
Bu a 3yo winner is more likely 

Most of them do fit the profile 
Of previous winning 3 year olds

JASOUR is one of those 
Not well treated on official ratings 
His 3 main rivals rated far higher

One of these should win

VANDEEK
RIVER TIBER
INISHERIN

RIVER TIBER has a chance
Been decades since the winner
Came from the Jersey stakes

Past 3 year old winners
All ran within the last 4 weeks

VANDEEK has 49 days off
Will missing Ascot hurt him ?
Just the 1 run this season too
Hard to know but no precedents

Might be a bit tight

But like him as a place bet 4/5


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet INISHERIN 9/4-5/2

£5.00 Place Bet VANDEEK 1/1-10/11  







York 5.25

7/1 Ray Vonn, 8/1 Dark Side Thunder, 8/1 Rock Opera
9/1 Danzan, 9/1 Elegant Erin, Mattice, 12/1 Bella Kopella
12/1 Glendown, 12/1  Maxi Boy, 14/1 Hierarchy
14/1 Showtime 14/1 Mahomes, 14/1 Treacherous
14/1 Trilby, 20/1 As If By Chance, 20/1 Oso Rapido
20/1 Rebel Path, Spirit Of Applause, 25/1 Kuwait City
25/1 Sibyl Charm, 25/1 Utilis.

6f Handicap

Quite an interesting sprint

Taking out horses from 5f
Similar races here in July
Show are 1-68 in them all
This takes out a few horses

ELEGANT ERIN 
HIERACRCH
MATTICE
TREACHEROUS
REBEL PATH
BELLA KOPELLA
SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE
GLENDOWN

Against the highest draws too

Horses drawn 2-15 look best
 
I'd want a recent run

At least 3 runs in 3 months

ROCK OPERA has a chance

TRILBY just fits the bill

4 year old

Fit profile

Good recent run 9 days ago
When he had the widest draw
Switched right across the track

Twice ran well here in summer
When badly drawn both times

Quiet stable but having places

Hold up horse adds to risks

But fit and well handicapped

Last time he had a recent run
He hacked up on softer ground

The good outweighs the bad

Main dangers

DARK SIDE THUNDER
ROCK OPERA


Selection

TRILBY 8/1

Each Way
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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