5 Previews  
1 Account Bet 
 
 
Account Bet

Goodwood 3.00 

BALDOMERO 100/30-7/2 

Win Bet






Final Deliberations



End of a 12 message run

Need to have a break now

No message tomorrow

This time next week 
Intend to have a major assault
On the Munster Grand National
Next week's main target race

F.B.A will be busy next week
Ascot have Champions day
Will look at the card midweek 
The other major target race 
Ascot's Balmoral Handicap
   
Also worth bearing in mind
the Paddy Power Gold Cup 
Looms closer 34 days away



Today

Account Bet is the priority

5 Previews
3  Naas
2 Goodwood



Naas has a quality card
Big fields far from easy
But well worth watching
Happy with the previews

But these are ambitious races
With a big luck factor in them

There is a horse at Goodwood
With a far more obvious chance
Shorter price but only 5 rivals
And it could well be significant
I can not find a saver bet I liked 
So going with him as the bet


Goodwood 3.00 

BALDOMERO 100/30-7/2 

Win Bet



It's a scrappy little race

Personally

I think I should be going each way

Thats what I will be doing

Even with just the two places

But that would be a bit stressfull

Getting on in such a small field

Preview Selections


Goodwood 1.50
£6.50 Win Bet Far l'Amore 8/1-17/2
£2.50 Win Bet Judgementofsolomon 3/1-11/4
£1.00 Win Bet Gooloogong 10/1
  
Naas 2.50
£8.50 Win Bet Azada 9/2
£1.50 Win Bet Princess Child 11/2

Goodwood 3.00 
Baldomero 7/2 
Win Bet
 
Naas 3.25
Siege Of Troy 6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Naas 4.00 
Comfort Zone 10/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5








Yesterday's Summary

Quite a mixed 8 preview message
I could spin it on the positive side
Saying I chose two bets to highlight
Both of them were very easy winners
The best bet won going away at 6/1
All that is true and deserves credit
But did not feel like a good message
The other previews sunk like a stone
Some of it was the softening ground
Created many pace and track biases
But some bad personal decisions too
Some of our bets looked like winning
Only to fade late on getting outstayed
Shackleton a good example of that
The majority of it was simply useless
Never really got to grips with the day
After this long stint the petrol ran dry
Find it hard to celebrate the message
Obviously pleased the best bets won
But overall it was rather unforgettable
 
 
    



PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Goodwood 1.50

11/4 Clever Relation, 7/2 Judgementofsolomon
6/1 Far l'Amore, 8/1 Gooloogong, 10/1 Mark Of Gold
10/1 Zoran, 14/1 Hurtle Wallop, 14/1 Poncho
16/1 Havaila, 20/1 Royaume Uni, 20/1  Zikany.


2m Handicap

National Hunt Jockeys
 
Horses  rated 0-80


11 runners

Gary Moore has 4 of the 1 runners 

He has a 0-20 record in this race

Suspect some will be having runs
To get fit for hurdling campaigns
One of his could easily pop up
But none of his four look obvious

 ZORAN is topweight

More weight that all past winners
Faces a nasty 79 day absence 

Horses sired by Invincible Spirit
Running over 1m 7f and further
When absent over 35 days
Have a 0-21 record so far

None by his sire have won
Over this far with his absence
So happy to look elsewhere

CLEVER RELATION is a 4yo
Favourite and smells fancied 

Do we want a 4 year old
With just 1 run in 155 days 
Running on heavy ground ?
Would not see that as safe

He has other problems
Has not raced in 49 days
Comes up 5f in distance

Go back to  2001
Every handicap run
Over 2 miles or more
In Class 3 and lower grade
Any time of the season 
Horses aged 4
Under 9 career starts
Coming from under 12f
Absent more than 30 days
Return a 0-46 record
CLEVER RELATION fails this
That suggests he is vulnerable

One of two look underraced

HAVAILA just 1 run in 142 days
MARK OF GOLD 1 run in 169 days
PONCHO is short of recent runs
ZIKANY is obviously underraced 
ROYAUME UNI absent too long
HURTLE WARRIOR didn't appeal

JUDGEMENTOFSOLOMON

Won a Pontefract stayers race
Then he flopped at Southwell 

Very few 3 year olds run in this

Overall they have a 2-18 record

Both 3yo winners were similar
Both had 9-11 career starts
They ran within 12 days
And came from 2m races  

JUDGEMENTOFSOLOMON fits
So he should be on the staking

FAR L'AMORE is another 3yo
He is not a match to the others
Brian Meehan trains this horse
So much be ready for anything
May not fit the race statistics
But his profile works elsewhere
I would see him as shortlistable

GOOLOOGONG also shortlisted

Statistically the main interest

Can we beat Clever Relation
As he fails a generic statistic
But is one of the most fancied

Can Mark Prescott

Get Judgementofsolomon back to form

JUDGEMENTOFSOLOMON is fit
Just imagine what price he would be
Had he won last time rather than flopping

Don't think his draw in 10 helps him
 
Going for a split stake bet

Selection

£6.50  Win Bet FAR L'AMORE 8/1

£2.50 Win Bet JUDGEMENTOFSOLOMON 11/4-3/1
 
£1.00 Win Bet GOOLOOGONG 10/1






Naas 2.50

100/30 Sakti, 4/1 Princess Child, 5/1 Goldana
6/1 Azada, 10/1 Improvista, 10/1 Marakesh
10/1 Star Galaxy, 12/1 North Africa, 16/1 Independent Expert
16/1 Presence, 20/1 All Lies Ahead,  20/1 Indigo Five
25/1 Evening Blossom, 33/1 Vasda, 40/1 Declaree
50/1 Ina Mina.

Garnet Stakes

8f Listed race (Fillies)
 
15 Past renewals
 
GOLDANA is a 5 year old
Best horse on official ratings
But she has question marks

Older than every past winner
Ran just once (badly) in 140 days
No guarantee of form or fitness
 
Horses aged 3
Have the best record

MARAKESH is a 4 year old
Looks unsuitable with just 1 run 
Every past winner had 3 + runs

NORTH AFRICA is a 3yo filly
She comes from a 12f maiden
Can't have her down half a mile

The above two horses
Also fail the following angle

Most winners
Came from Listed/Group races

Horses from Class 2 or lower
When running within 8 weeks
Have a 0-73 record in this race
Several outsiders fail this
So do the following horses

MARAKESH
NORTH AFRICA 
INDIGO FIVE
EVENING BLOSSOM
PRESENCE

PRESENCE has a nasty draw
INDEPENDENCE EXPERT does

Joseph O'Brien runs several
Can never rule this man out
But most of his look beatable
Did not see enough in these
STAR GALAXY   
EVENING BLOSSOM

PRINCESS CHILD is a 3yo
Bit exposed with 12 career runs
Most 3yo winners had 4-8 races

Horses aged 3
Over 8 career runs
Have a 1-57 record
Those absent over 14 days
Have a 0-34 record
PRINCESS CHILD fails that
But only just by a few days
And only if we also include
His runs in other countries 
 
AZADA is a 3 year old
Good profile with 4 runs
Several lightly raced 3yo's
Have come here fresh like her
Only complaint stall 13 is high
She comes from a good trial

IMPROVISTA met her there
Nothing wrong with her profile
But she was behind Azada
And was a 22/1 outsider there

SAKTI is a 3yo
Lightly raced off a career best
No issues with his profile
Maybe a sire issue though

Horses sired by Caravaggio
Running over 8f or more
Class 3 and higher grade
Good to soft or slower ground
Have a 0-24 record so far
SAKTI shares this profile

Don't doubt she stays a mile
But do we want to risk her today 
In a pattern race over a mile
On softer ground with 43 days off
 
AZADA may be the safer bet
  
She has had 3 runs this season
Made her a negative in them all
Mainly through her inexperience
And just having too raw a profile 

Not keen these days

In relying on Dermot Weld horses

But for me she appealed the most

Could go each way 

Maybe I should with 1-2-3-4 places

But decided to go win and saver

PRINCESS CHILD is the saver bet


Selection

£8.50 Win Bet AZADA 9/2

£1.50 Win Bet PRINCESS CHILD 11/2







Goodwood 3.00

5/2 Alcazan, 3/1 Wodao, 100/30 Baldomero
11/2 Chairmanoftheboard, 6/1 Spanish Star
10/1 Coachello

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-95

6 runners

The two oldest horses
Do not have fit profiles

SPANISH STAR a 9yo
Has not raced in 102 days

CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD an 8yo
Has raced just once in 151 days

15 Past renewals 
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 10 days
Have a 0-57 record in this 
The following all fail this

CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD
SPANISH STAR
COACHELLO

Go back to 1997
June to December
6f Handicaps
Class 3 or higher
Horses aged 9 or more
Absent over 49 days
Have a 0-47 record
SPANISH STAR fails this

Go back to 1997
June to December
6f Handicaps
Class 3 or higher
Horses aged 8 or more
Just 1 run in 4 months
Return a 0-92 record
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD fails this

ALCAZAN passes that statistic
But is a 6yo mare from a 5f race

Go back to 2007
6f Handicaps
Class 3 and higher
Any time of the year
Mares aged 5 or more
Coming from  5f races
Absent more than 2 days
Return a 0-55 record
ALCAZAN has this profile

Small fields corrupt statistics

Heavy ground does as well

But can only shortlist 2 horses

WODAO

BALDOMERO


BALDOMERO is a 6yo
Fit and running very well

Drawn 11 of 11 at Ripon
A genuine excuse last time
Had won his previous race

WODAO is a 4 year old
Plenty of ability and respected

One thing I find interesting

Go back exactly 1 year

During this time

BALDOMERO has had 22 runs

WODAO has only had 4 runs 
 
Sept Oct Nov
6f Handicaps
Class 2-3-4 races
Horses aged 4
Over 13 career runs
Under 6 runs in a year
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Return a 0-30 record
WODAO has this profile

Given the profiles on offer

BALDOMERO is the clear choice

Not even sure I should save

Alcazan may be a bigger danger

Soon find out. No saver

Selection

BALDOMERO 100/30-7/2

Win Bet






Naas 3.25

100/30 Caught U Looking, 11/2 Ameerat Jumaira
13/2 Andromeda, 13/2 Siege Of Troy, 8/1 Romzina
17/2 Get, 9/1 Lope De Lilas, 10/1 Belhaven, Galileo Dame
16/1 Lady Doris, 16/1 Saltwell, 20/1 No Niki No
22/1 Riviera Queen, 28/1 Joupe, Mo Ghille Mar
33/1 Nostringsattached.

Bluebell Stakes

Listed race 12f

9 renewals

Lot of things to unpack here

Horses from class 4 or lower
Have a 0-29 record in the race
The following horses all fail this

GET
SIDIZA
RIVIERA QUEEN

Horses aged 3

Have a modest 3-69 record

The 3 that won had 4 6 7 runs

ROMZINA only has 2 races
Which makes her look raw

Horses aged 3
More than 7 career runs
Have a 0-21 record in this

CAUGHT U LOOKING a 3yo
Has now had 10 career starts

Does not make her a negative
But she is drawn wide is stall 17

Go back to 2009
Every 12f race here
Horses aged 3
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a weak 1-51 record

CAUGHT U LOOKING fails this

So do the following 3yo's

RIVIERA QUEEN
LADY DORIS
GET

Staying with the draw
Go back to 2009
Every 12f race here
Horses with over 14 runs
Absent more than 7 days
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-37 record

NO NIKO NO fails this

BELLHAVEN does in stall 15
Her sire stats are quite weak 
 
SALTWELL is a 4 year old
Rejected with 161 days off


LOPE DE LILAS has 3 runs

Sexy horse

Willie Mullins trains

Has he laid her out for this

She has not ran in 85 days

None have won this race
With an absence that long
Her sire stats are not safe

Horses sired by Lope De Vega
Running over 1m 4f and more
Listed and Group races
With under 5 career starts
Have a 0-23 record so far

Those in class 2 or higher
Absent more than 20 days
Have a 0-27 record so far
LOPE DE LILAS fails this

She may still win the race
But there are some doubts


AMEERAT JUMAIRA is a 4yo
Has a chance but is up in distance
Unplaced on the sand last time

ANDROMEDA is a 3yo

GALILEO DAME is a 3yo

They met in the Oyster Stakes

Won't be much between them

But both need to improve

Also worth noting

17 Horses ran in the Oyster Stakes
Then came here and all got beaten  


SIEGE OF TROY is a 3yo
No strong profile objections

But there is a stamina doubt

Horses sire by Siyouni
Running over 12f and more
Listed and Group class
Have a 0-23 record so far
SIEGE OF TROY would be first

I'm not worried about that

She is out of a Galileo mare
Who has bred quality horses
Over this distance and beyond
With a 4 place cushion as well
Would see her as the best option

Selection

SIEGE OF TROY 6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





 
  


Naas 4.00

100/30 Chemistry, 9/2 Portland, 7/1 Mr Escobar
15/2 Seddon, 10/1 Ephesus, 11/1 Comfort Zone
11/1 Jabbar, 11/1  Man O Work, 12/1 Vera Verto
14/1 Pinot Gris, 16/1 Nostra Casa, Toll Stone
20/1 Reina Del Mar, 22/1 Falcon Eight, 28/1 Harry's Legacy
40/1 Lord Erskine, Prairie Dancer, 50/1 Rich Belief
66/1 Mt Leinster, 66/1 Rain.

2m Handicap

Quality handicap

But with a messy history

Been run at 2 different tracks
And over both 14f and 2 miles

Lot of 3 year olds
Among the market leaders
Not sure that's a safe strategy

October and November
Have 51 similar handicaps

Horses aged 3
Under 6 career starts
Have a 0-20 record

CHEMISTRY fails that
He only has 4 career runs
Stuck out in stall 20 too

Naas 2m handicaps
Show the best draws
Albeit from limited samples
Are between stalls 8 and 15

EPHESUS another 3yo
Also has under 6 career runs

PORTLAND is a 3yo
Tough weight with 94 days off

Several of these
Come from hurdle races

October and November
Have 51 similar handicaps
Horses from hurdle races
Running within 4 weeks
Have a 0-66 record in them
The following horses fail this

LORD ERSKINE
RICH BELIEF
JABBAR
MAN O WORK
MR ESCOBAR
PINOT GRIS

Similar races all year round
Horses from hurdle races
Running within 4 weeks
Have won them occasionally

No 4yo has done it (0-35)
PINOT GRIS would be first

No horse managed it
From a maiden hurdle (0-33)
The following would be first

JABBAR
MR ESCOBAR

Against the oldest horses

SEDDON is 11 years old now
And is coming up in distance
NOSTRA CASA is an 8 year old
Happy to resist with 57 days off
HARRY'S LEGACY is underraced

TOLL STONE could go well
But a 4yo with 59 days off

Horses aged 4
More than 10 career runs
Absent over 31 days
Return a 0-42 record
TOLL STONE fails this

COMFORT ZONE selected

Best draw range

Not too exposed as a 5yo

Looks well treated off 86

7th in the Irish Cesarevitch

That trip just beyond him
None from his sire have won
Over distances as far as that
This drop in trip must help
 
Selection

COMFORT ZONE 10/1

Each Way
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5


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