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Favourite Bet

Chester 2.15

MACANUDO 5/1-9/2  

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





Final Deliberations    

The start of an intense busy period
Message go through to next sunday
Not taking any days off in this period

Next monday there will be a message
But I'm not going to cover many races
One item that will be included that day
Will be Royal Ascot Generic statistics
 
In terms of today

Obviously a suffocating schedule
So many meetings is just wasteful
That's the main reason this message
Has not managed to blossom well
And has some controversial staking


6 Previews

No official selections

There is a burglary bet today

Which does look bomb proof

Sandown 2.40

ATTACK 11/4-3/1 

Each Way

But is hard to get a bet on
Would not be a popular bet
And hard to stomach if losing



So going with a different one

Harder but more conventional
  
Chester 2.15

MACANUDO 5/1-9/2  

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




Main aim tomorrow

Saturday account bet







Preview Selections 
 
Sandown 1.30
Redorange 9/1-10/1
Each Way

Sandown 2.05 
£3.00 Each Way Maharajas Express 14/1-12/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Fantasy Master 5/4 (1-2-3-4) 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5

Chester 2.15
Macanudo 5/1-9/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

York 2.25
£3.75 Each Way Clay Shoveler 12/1 
£1.25 Win Bet Isla Bella 6/'1-11/2
£1.25 Win Bet Rex Carver 7/1 

Sandown 2.40
Attack 11/4-3/1 
Each Way
 
Chester 2.50 
£5.00 Win Bet Manila Thriller 8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Oasis Sunrise 13/2-7/1
£4.00 Place Bet  Far Above Mary 6/4





Yesterday's Summary 
  
Marginally better than Wednesday
Not by much still below standard
Just a winner and a saver winning
From a non committal 5 race day
Obviously taken a couple of days
To get up to normal work speed
Wasn't a very significant message
But it will have helped future ones
Just by getting rid of a lot more rust




PROFILES & PREVIEWS





Sandown 1.30

5/2 Rajeteriat, 7/2 Siegen, 7/1 Art Market
7/1 Backspin, 8/1 Hucklesbrook, 8/1 Redorange
10/1 Top Star, 12/1 Mr Cool, 25/1 Skellig Isle
33/1 Candy, Rage Of Thunder, 40/1 Chasing Gold.

2yo Novice 5f

Quirky draw angle here

That I suspect might fail 

The 3 market leaders

RAJETARIAT drawn 1

SIEGEN drawn 2

ART MARKET drawn 3

You'd think all had good draws

Go back to 2011
Sandown 5f races 
Horses under 4 years old
Who have under 3 career runs
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4
Have a strange record

In fields of 10 or more
They have a 1-64 record

In fields of 11 or more
They have a 0-35 record

Maybe the lowest draws
Are not as good as people think
With young inexperienced horses

Getting all the above beaten
Does seem quite an unlikely aim

Going with a speculative bet

REDORANGE ran well on debut
Tried to take on a smarter horse
Eased down when he was beaten
Not impossible he improves a lot

Selection

REDORANGE 9/1-10/1

Each Way







Sandown 2.05

5/1 Brave Nation, 11/2 Acklam Express, 11/2 Fantasy Master
6/1 Jenever, Lil Guff, 10/1 Bang On The Bell, 10/1 Hierarchy
12/1 Atalanta's Boy, Maharajas Express, 14/1 Moulin Booj
20/1 Mary Of Modena, 25/1 Dubai Station, 25/1 Phoenix Star
33/1 Buraback, 40/1 Concierge, Secret Handsheikh.
 
5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-81

JENEVER heads the market

That's despite having stall 12
And just the 1 race in 93 days
 
This is an interesting draw angle

Go back to 2011
Every 5f race here
Horses aged 5 or more
Drawn 10 or higher
Absent over 15 days
Have a 0-52 record in them
JENEVER fails this angle
So do the following horses

CONCIERGE

BANG ON THE BELL
Several of these
Could be short of recent runs
JENEVER has this question mark

Past winners

Had these prep runs 

4 4 5 2 2 4 3 3 1 3  

Most had 2 or more recent runs
Opposing the horses with just 1

MARY OF MODENA
JENEVER 
ATALANTA'S BOY
ACKLAM EXPRESS

ACKLAM EXPRESS is well treated
He could easily defy the above angle
All his wins  were in July onwards
Maybe he needs another run this year
He does also have topweight to carry

17 past renewals of this race
17 winners ran within 26 days
Those that did not were 0-46
MARY OF MODENA fails this
MOULIN BOOJ also fails this
 
LIL GUFF is a 5 year old mare
She won this race last season
She could follow up winning again
But she was in better form last year
She won in a far smaller field
She also won with a better draw  
Not a negative just not for me
 
BRAVE NATION is a 4yo
No strong objections to him
Not the kindest of draws 
And does not fit the best profile

Many previous winners
Dropped down from 6f to 5f
    
Best profile

Go back to 2008
Horses from 6f
Running within 3 weeks
Coming from a handicap
That was in Class 3-4 grade
Beaten under 6 lengths last time
Have an excellent 11-25 record

HIERACHY has this profile
Tends to be better later in the year
Not the biggest of horses either

FANTASY MASTER is a 6yo
He also fits the best profile 
But out of a Dalakhani mare
The distance does feel a bit short
But fit and should be running on

MAHARAJAS EXPRESS a 4yo
Goes up in class rated only 71
Had some bad draws recently
Looks well handicapped right now
If this was a in a grade lower race
He's be a very interesting horse
But can he step up in class here

Not sure but not many I like
Going to stake him with safety

Selection

£3.00 Each Way MAHARAJAS EXPRESS 14/1-12/1

£4.00 Place Bet FANTASY MASTER 5/4 (1-2-3-4)
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Chester 2.15

3/1 Quiet Resolve, 11/2 Macanudo, 11/2 Old Chums
6/1 Call Glory, 15/2 Onigiri, 9/1 Angel's Call, 10/1 Last Applause
12/1 Master Franca, 14/1 Cool Run, 16/1 Infinity Blue
25/1 Biographer, 33/1 Judge Frank.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-75

Competitive race

Starting with the draw

OLD CHUMS has stall 11

Go back to 1997
Chester 6f handicaps
Under 14 runners
Horses under 5 years old
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-62 record in them

OLD CHUMS fails this angle
MASTER FRANCA does too

INFINITY BLUE is badly drawn
When you factor in his absence
He looks underraced this season
COOL RUN has this problem
As a filly coming up from 5f
With just 1 run in many months
Similar races show these fillies
With over 3 runs from 5f races
Just 1 run this year are 0-36
COOL RUN has this profile

ONIGIRI is a filly
Just the 1 run in 104 days now

CALL GLORY a tough draw
JUDGE FRANK may need this
BIOGRAPHER has topweight
Did not do enough 7 days ago

ANGELS CALL a tough weight
Started 40/1 on handicap debut
Not much experience with 4 runs

LAST APPLAUSE is a filly
Lowest rated horse in the race
Not convinced she has the class

QUIET RESOLVE is shortlistable
But he is coming down in distance
Hard to read his profile average

MACANUDO is fit and well

No shame in his last race
Had the worst draw at Leicester
He was bottomweight in a 0-92
By far the lowest rated horse there
Before that he ran here in a 0-91
When lumbered by stall 12 there
Big drop in grade into a 0-75

Selection

MACANUDO 5/1-9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






York 2.25

7/2 Isla Bella, 5/1 I Love Dad, 11/2 Rex Carver
6/1 Mrbluesky, 10/1 Lucky Lottery, 12/1 Bungle Reigns
12/1 Clay Shoveler, Winchurch, 14/1 Inconspicuous
16/1 Black Tide, Elementary Charge, 25/1 Chalena
33/1 Cugini, 33/1 Owt For Nowt, 33/1Wondrous Ways.
 
6f Seller (2yo)
 
Should be lots of deadwood

I LOVE DAD has ran once
Comes back just 5 days later
He may find stall 14 an issue
He also fails this statistic  
 
Go back to 2004
Horses from 5f races
Under 4 career starts
Running within 8 weeks
Have a 0-100 record in this
The following horses fail 

I LOVE DAD
OWT FOR NOWT
WINCHURCH
ELEMENTARY CHARGE
LUCKY LOTTER
MR BLUE SKY
BUNGLE REIGNS

BLACK TIDE has 1 run
Did not do enough in that

CHALENA has low figures

REX CARVER is respected
More saver than selection

Best profile

Horses from a 6f race
Running within 24 days
Beaten under 11 lengths last time
Starting under 50/1 in the race
Coming from Class 4 or lower
Horses with the above profile
Have a 12-39 record since 2024
Won 8 of the last 11 renewals

ISLA BELLE has this profile
But is a filly carrying a penalty
 
INCONSPICOUS could win
Not a match to the ideal profile
And started 80/1 on his debut
But he clearly has some ability
And he will be laid out for this
His small trainer has won this twice
Comes mob handed again this year

CLAY SHOVELER is a positive
Ran only 5 days ago in a 5f seller
Interesting profile with 4 career runs
The 2002 winner had this profile

Selection

£3.75 Each Way CLAY SHOVELER 12/1

£1.25 Win Bet  ISLA BELLE 11/2-6/1

£1.25 Win Bet REX CARVER 7/1




Sandown 2.40

5/4 Royal Officer, 11/4 Attack, 6/1 Consolidation
9/1 Windlord, 12/1 Aegean Sea, 16/1 Jet Packer
20/1 Maximus Alexios, 33/1 Caspian King, Dividend,
40/1 Charming Fellow, 50/1 Moon Sniper, Van Aert.

2yo Maiden 7f

ROYAL OFFICER is unraced

Very expensive Godolphin colt

Trading around 4/5 as I type

Stall 8 is a bit on the higher side
But unraced 2yo's have won here
When drawn as high as that 

CONSOLIDATION also unraced
Has got the outside drawn in stall 12
I would not risk him drawn so high

ATTACK looks the danger

He's had a run before
Decent debut over 7f on soft
Against experienced horses

Comes from a top class stable
Very expensive horse (460000 euros)
Entitled to go very close

Can he beat the favourite ?

Maybe the rain will decided
How much we get and when

Sandown 7f races
Good to soft or worse
Unraced horses
Drawn 7 or higher are 1-55

If the ground goes soft
ATTACK may have an edge

Far from likely to go soft
But he has a big chance anyway
Going for a burglary bet

Selection

ATTACK 11/4-3/1

Each Way





Chester 2.50

5/2 Dukes Of Haather, 11/2 Oasis Sunrise, 6/1 Far Above Mary
7/1 Almanjoor, 8/1 Whiskey Glasses, 10/1 Magic Topissima
12/1 Elladora Black, 14/1 Camden Flyer, 14/1 Manila Thriller
20/1 Bank On Kent, 20/1 Eye Puzzle, 20/1  Shielas Well.

2yo Seller 7f

DUKES OF HAATHER

Sets the standard after 3 runs

Most likely winner if he stays
But it  must be a serious doubt

Very speedily bred horse
Opposed him in the Brocklesby
Wasn't sure he would stay 5f
Without having any experience
He didn't seem to stay that day

Can he stay 7f with 3 runs
Possibly but not first choice
Going to oppose him each way

ALMANJOOR has stall 11

Go back to 1997
Chester 7f races
Horses aged 2
Drawn 11 or higher
Have a 0-46 record
ALMANJOOR fails this
SHIELAS WELL does too
EYE PUZZLE is badly drawn

MAGIC TOPOSSIMA is unsafe
Unraced and drawn in stall 9

FAR ABOVE MARY has 6 runs
Her experience a massive help
But she comes from a 5f race
That does weaken her profile

WHISKEY GLASSES has 2 runs
Impossible task in both of them
Makes her very hard to read

OASIS SUNRISE has 1 run
Modest profile but good debut
She could improve enough to win

MANILLA THIRLLER a filly
Also comes here with just 1 run
Badly missed the break on debut
But shaped nicely afterwards

Decided to split stake this

FAR ABOVE MARY a place bet

His experience will be important
And enough to fight many off

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet MANILLA THIRLLER 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet OASIS SUNRISE 13/2-7/1

£4.00 Place Bet FAR ABOVE MARY 6/4 +

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