8 Previews  
0 Account Bet 

No Account Bet  


Decided on a Sunday bet
For reasons given latter on



Favourite Bet (s)



Musselburgh 4.45
£3.00 Each Way CANAVAN 25/1-28/1
£4.00 Win Bet KIRKDALE 6/4-11/8

Chester 2.40
SPIRIT MIXER 11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Chester 5.55
£4.50 Each Way HAVEYOUMISSEDME 10/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet CHILLED OUT 14/1-12/1





Final Deliberations


8 Previews

3 Doncaster
2 Leopardstown
2 Chester
1 Musselburgh

Starting with the headline races


St Leger Day

Gone with the favourite
But not a race to highlight


Irish Champion Stakes

Leopardstown 3.25

AUGUSTE RODIN 9/4 -5/2

Win Bet

My angles point his way
I'm thinking  each way 9/4
But that is my own bias
Officially this is a win bet

Doncaster 2.25

RUMSTAR 12/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

Portland Handicap
More hopeful than confident
But had a good crack at this
And I chose him as the bet




Account bet options


There is a 25/1 chance
I think you should be on



Chester 2.40

SPIRIT MIXER 11/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Tasty staying handicap
Clear choice of the options
Not sure how it will be run
So reliant on plenty of luck
Typed this preview 3 times
So I have grown to hate it
But one of my better bets



Musselburgh 4.45

£3.00 Each Way CANAVAN 25/1-28/1

£4.00 Win Bet KIRKDALE 6/4-11/8

2yo maiden a weak market
Just not suitable for a full bet
But one fascinating preview 
It is just informed guesswork
Kirkdale looks the likely winner
Canavan could be a saver bet
But at the prices I just think
We have to stake it this way
Best piece of work I've done
Had this been a strong market
I'd have gone best bet of day
This is my favourite race today
Watching how the angles fare




Chester 5.55

£4.50 Each Way HAVEYOUMISSEDME 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet CHILLED OUT 14/1-12/1

Hardest to judge of the best bets
Could have backed both each way
The angles may be built on sand
I think it would be very significant
If Haveyoumissedme was backed
But so far that has not happened
At the prices wanted to highlight it





Sunday

Decided late last night
I would wait until Sunday
For the main account bet

Partly down to a problem
Where I lost 3 previews
Failed to save properly
Had to re type them again
Just a new computer glitch
But it was rather annoying 
It caused plenty of panic 

All week I fancied Sunday
My mob are at a wedding
Got a free pass not to go
So have a clear run at it
Without any distractions





Preview Selections

Leopardstown 2.15
£6.50 Win Bet Maljoom 11/4
£3.50 Place Bet Mutasarref 7/4

Doncaster 2.25
Rumstar 12/1-14/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Chester 2.40
Spirit Mixer 11/2
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Doncaster 3.00
£3.50 Each Way Shouldvebeenaring12/1-14/1
£3.00 Win Bet Lead Artist 5/2-9/4

Leopardstown 3.25
Auguste Rodin 9/4
Win Bet

Doncaster 3.40
Illinois 9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Musselburgh 4.45
£3.00 Each Way Canavan 25/1-28/1
£4.00 Win Bet Kirkdale 6/4-11/8

Chester 5.55
£4.50 Each Way Haveyoumissedme 8/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Chilled Out 14/1-16/1





Yesterday's Summary

We covered 8 Friday previews
Had concerns it was too many
With softer ground at all tracks
And un hindsight it probably was 
Message went L L W W L L P L
Managed 2 winners and a place
Bit disappointed with that overall
Aesterius was a decent winner
The other major positive about it
The best bet of the message won
Four Adaay made his fitness tell
Overall all purely on the returns
Probably just a small loss overall
Depending on what prices you got
But there wasn't too much in this
And with the best bet also winning
Felt it was just about acceptable




PROFILES & PREVIEWS


Leopardstown 2.15

15/8 Maljoom, 2/1 Diego Velazquez, 7/1 Poker Face
10/1 Mountain Bear, Mutasarref, 14/1 Lord Massusus
16/1 Galen, 25/1 Gregarina, 25/1 Power Under Me
33/1 Bold Discovery, 50/1 Flight Plan
66/1 Bright Stripes.


Solonaway Stakes

Group 2 over a mile

Used to be the Boomerang stakes

Two top rated horses

MALJOOM rated 119

DIEGO VELAZQUEZ rated 119


DIEGO VELAZQUEZ is favourite

Not quite sure what kind of fool
Would oppose Aidan O'Brien
Who is targeting this meeting
But there are some concerns

He has a 58 day absence
Misses his prep race for this
An abortive trip to the USA
For an abandoned meeting

He is drawn 12 of 12

That is the worst draw

He is clearly top class

But going to take him on

With a strategic split stake

POKER FACE is an option
But he is 5 years old now
Just 1 run in 88 days as well

MUTASARREF is a place bet

MALJOOM the selection

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet MALJOOM 11/4

£3.50 Place Bet MUTASARREF 7/4






Doncaster 2.25

7/1 Shagraan, 8/1 Cover Up, 10/1 Albasheer
10/1 American Affair, 10/1 Holkham Bay, 10/1 Jm Jungle
12/1 Apollo One, 12/1 Bergerac, 12/1 Vintage Clarets
14/1 Aberama Gold, 14/1 Walbank, 16/1 Rumstar
20/1 Born To Rock, Dream Composer, Hiya Maite
25/1 Desert Cop, 25/1 Get It, Rizg, 25/1 Woolhampton
33/1 Manila Scouse, 33/1 Silky Wilkie, 33/1 Wodao.


Portland Handicap

5f143y

Horses rated 0-105


The last 22 winners
Had the following draws

12 14 5 18 14 18 22 12
10 15 12  21 15 16 18
21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8

No horse has won this
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4
None draw that low appeal
Which takes out these four

SILKY WILKIE
WODAO
MANILA SCOUSE
WALBANK

RIZG is absent too long
DESERT ROCK ran 7 days ago
Beaten too far to trust him here
GET IT has the same problem
He is not the right age as a 6yo

The 2022 winner was a 6yo
Only won it in the Stewards Room
He also had a short 8 day break

6 year olds
Have a 0-86 record since 1997
Count last years promoted winner
That becomes a 1-92 record

Go back to 2005
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 3 days
Have a 0-117 record
Count last years promoted winner
That becomes a 1-123 record
The following are 6 year olds

ABERAMA GOLD
HITA MAITE
GET IT 
DREAM COMPOSER
BERGERAC
APOLLO ONE
ALBASHEER

Don't want an exposed horse
Go back to the 2008 renewal
Horses with over 30 career runs
Absent more than just 3 days
Return a 0-118 record in this
Several of the above horses fail
VINTAGE CLARETS does as well

AMERICAN AFFAIR is drawn 22
COVER UP is drawn in stall 21
Neither are safe draws in this

Go back to 1997
Horses aged 4
Drawn 15 or higher
Have a 0-38 record in this
Not too tempted by either
COVER UP scares me most
Could be a place saver bet

Fillies have a 1-67 record
The winner a 4yo filly in 2013
WOOLHAMPTON is a filly
BORN TO ROCK a 3yo filly
She's ran just once in 92 days

HOLKHAM BAY is a 4yo
Beaten over 10 lengths last time
Badly draw he had his excuses
But horses beaten over 6 lengths
Have struggled in this handicap
No 4yo was beaten that far 

J M JUNGLE is a 4yo
He won on his latest start
Very exposed for a 4yo
He has had 28 career runs
 
Horses aged 4
Won 6 races since 2002
Those with over 18 runs
Have a 0-40 record in them
J M JUNGLE fails this angle

Horses winning last time
With over 16 career runs
Have a 0-54 record in this
J M JUNGLE fails this too


Shortlist

COVER UP 7/1

SHAGRAAN 7/1

ALBASHEER 10/1

RUMSTAR 14/1

SHAGRAAN is a 3 year old
3yo's are 1-55 since 2001 
That has to be a big worry
But he did win 7 days ago
That was a career best figure

ALBASHEER is a 6 year old
Can oppose him because of it
But he is the class horses 
2nd in a recent listed race
Going on last time numbers
He is 5lbs clear of the field

RUMSTAR is a 4yo
He is the right type of 4yo
Been running himself fit

Considered all options

Place Saver on Cover Up

Saving one Shagraan too

But the prices are too skinny

So going with the one horse

Selection

RUMSTAR 12/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Chester 2.40

11/2 Vera Verto, 6/1 Emiyn, 6/1 Tashkhan
7/1 Spirit Mixer, 8/1 Mr Escobar, 8/1 Zoffee
12/1 Aqwaam, 12/1 Goobinator, 12/1 Shanroe
12/1 Sheradann, 14/1 Zealandia, 16/1 Solent Gateway
20/1 Roberto Escobarr.


7f Handicap

Previewed this twice

Lost both copies of the work

Very frustrated not doing it again

Summarised preview now

It pointed out

Several of these 
Had absences and high draws
Did not like the mixture of both

There were several underraced
Just did not have fit enough profiles

The disappearing preview

Then moved on to specifics

VERA VERTO is a mare 

Her profile was nothing special
As an older mare up in distance
She failed breeding statistics too
Sire has no winners beyond 12f

EMIYN was in the same boat
His sire has bred staying winners
None over this far with an absence

TASHKHAN's last run
Beaten 90 lengths in a Group 2
Was also troubling just 22 days ago
Looked at every class 2 handicap
Run at any time of the season

No horses aged 4 or more
Running in the last few weeks
Was beaten as far as he was
When coming from a Group race
Could not match him to a winner

SPIRIT MIXER 

Came out best of all

Backed him Shergar Cup day

Opposed him at York next time
When he was drawn 17 of 17 

Last time he won here
It was a big drop in class

He is back in class today
But has lots of backclass

Has not yet won a class 2

But has hard tough marks
The majority of times he failed

Feel he can win this off 88

Hard to read the race tactically

Sometimes he has led
Other times he was held up

But on his profile

He was the stand out option

Selection

SPIRIT MIXER 11/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4




  
Doncaster 3.00

15/8 Kinross, 11/4 Lead Artist, 9/2 Poet Master
13/2 Al Shabab Storm, 14/1 Shouldvebeenaring
16/1 Vetiver, 25/1 Folgaria, Pogo, 33/1 Popmaster.

Park Stakes 7f

KINROSS is 7 years old

Not major problem with that
Same profile as the 2010 winner
Not quite sure how ready he is
Last year at Ascot in October
He ran in the Group 1 sprint stakes
He had 5 warm up raced last year
This is only his 4th run of the year
He may be being tuned up for that

AL SHABAB STORM is a 3yo
Again no big problems with that
Just don't think he offers enough

The 3yo winners of this race
All had under9 previous races
AL SHABAB STORM has 11

LEAD ARTIST has 4 runs
He is a better match as a 3yo
The 2007 winner had 4 races

POET MASTER could win
Can live with the penalty he has
But he is a 4 year old
Raced just once in 126 days

No horse older than 3
Has won this race before
With just 1 run in 12 weeks
POET MASTER is rejected

SHOULDVEBEENARING

Strange profile
Ran last week over 6f
No horse his age tried that
Think he has a neutral profile
But a lot of recent excuses
Rated only 1lbs off Lead Artist
And has had more recent runs

Selection

£3.50 Each Way SHOULDVEBEENARING 12/1-14/1

£3.00 Win Bet LEAD ARTIST 5/2-9/4






Leopardstown 3.25

6/4 Economics, 9/4 Auguste Rodin
5/1 Los Angeles, 10/1 Ghostwriter, 12/1 Luxembourg
14/1 Shin Emperor, 33/1 Royal Rhyme
200/1 Hans Andersen.

Irish Champion Stakes

ECONOMICS

High class prospect

Only 1lbs behind on ratings

Should he be the favourite ?
Not sure he should be really
His owners sponsor the race
Has it  pushed them into running ?

Aiming to win the Irish Champion 
Then the English Champion stakes
Ambitious plans but is he ready ?

The least experienced winner of this
Was Luxembourg (2022) with 5 runs
ECONOMICS only has 4 career runs

He is drawn on the outside as well
Just the 1 run in the last 121 days
These are really not deal-breakers 
But clear question marks about him

GHOSTWRITER might win
Would not be my first choice

Horses sired by Invincible Spirit
Running in Group races
Over 10 furlongs and more
Have a weak 1-53 record
One did it back in 2012
But that was the only one
GHOSTWRITER next to  try
English horse in an Irish race
Just would not be first choice

Going with Aidan here

AUGUSTE RODIN

Would appear to be stable choice

Happy to accept that as likely

Bound to have been laid out too

Price of 9/4 seems fair

Why not bet him each way ?

That would tempt me a little
Much as he can throw in a bad run

He has won 6 Group 1 races

ECONOMICS has never ran in one

At the prices he looks the better bet


Selection

AUGUSTE RODIN 9/4-5/2

Win Bet




Doncaster 3.40

2/1 Illinois, 4/1 Jan Brueghel, 9/2 You Got To Me
5/1 Grosvenor Square, Sunway, 16/1 Deira Mile
50/1 Wild Waves.

St Leger Stakes

Looked at this ante post

ILLINOIS was my preference

He is drifting a bit in the market
Could be down to the ground
But not too worried about that
Few tracks drain as well as this

Did not like his stablemates

JAN BRUEGHEL has 3 runs

Recent St Leger winners
Had these career races

6 4 6 4 4 11 9 5 6 6 
5 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 8 7 
9 6 6 6 3 9 7 6 7 7 5

He looks inexperienced

Horses with over 4 runs
Coming from 1m 5f or more
Running within the last 44 days
Have a 0-50 record in the race
Two horses fail this statistic

WILD WAVES

GROSVENOR SQUARE

SUNWAY is popular
Every chance on the figures
He has 9 runs and 49 days off
That worries me as a profile
But Capri managed it in 2017
Much as he was a classier horse

Not for me
Maybe it is trainer snobbery
But decided to look elsewhere

YOU GOT TO ME is a filly

Supplemented and respected
Have no worries about fillies in this
But I prefer the O'Brien favourite

7 Winners since 1997
Got beat in the Great Voltigeur
Those beaten under 5 lengths
Have a 7-32 record in this race
ILLINOIS is the next to try this

Selection

ILLINOIS 9/4-5/2

Win Bet




Musselburgh 4.45

5/4 Antonin Dvorak, 2/1 Kirkdale
6/1 Bint Mohaather, 15/2 It's Only Fun
20/1 Balmerino, Canavan, 33/1 Magic Boy
50/1 What What What, 66/1 Chloe's Courage
66/1 Homeland.

2yo Maiden 7f

The market leaders
Have both raced once

ANTONIN DVORAK

KIRKDALE

Both modest purchases

Both similar achievements

This is an interesting distance

Early sharp hand bend

These stats choose our bet

Go back to 2011
When the stalls renumbered

Musselburgh 7f races
Every kind of race
Any time of year

The important thing
The number of runners

In fields of 7 or more runners
Over this course and distance
Unraced horses are 0-67
None of them have won yet
The following horses fail this

IT'S ONLY FUN
BALMERINO
MAGIC BOY
WHAT WHAT WHAT
BINT MOHAATHER

The above angle

Strongly suggests the horses
With experience are superior

ANTONIN DVORAK

Made his debut 17 days ago
Over this course and distance

He is draw in stall 1
This is an interesting angle

Go back to 2011
When the stalls renumbered 
Musselburgh 7f races
Every kind of race
Any time of year
With over 7 runners

Horses with under 8 runs
Drawn in stall 1
Have a very poor 1-69 record

Those aged under 4 years old
Have a 0-52 record in them all
ANTONIN DVORAK fails this

Maybe its the early sharp bend
That cuts off the lowest stall

But on that draw statistic

My bet is chosen for me 

KIRKDALE

However

CANAVAN one of the outsiders
Has had a race at Hamilton Park

That was over a mile on soft

No chance of staying on debut
On that ground by Kodi Bear
Whose unraced 2 year olds
Over 7f or more are 0-31 so far

CANAVAN did not stay there

If you watch the video of his run

You may agree with me
He ran with a lot of promise
On the outside he was right there
Until petrol ran out at the furlong marker

He actually cost more to buy
Than either of the two favourites

No idea if he is doing his best

But we have big strikes 

Against Stall 1
Against the unraced

So very happy to go this way

Selection

£3.00 Each Way CANAVAN 25/1-22/1

£4.00 Win Bet KIRKDALE 6/4






Chester 5.55

3/1 It's All About You, 7/2 Night Breeze
4/1 Dreams Adozen, 5/1 V Power, 6/1 Haveyoumissedme
10/1 Just Hiss, 14/1 Chilled Out, 16/1 Wholeofthemoon
33/1 Millions Memories.

12f Handicap

Horses rated 0-81

Another preview today
That was done and lost

So just summarising

The market leaders
Are doing a similar thing

IT'S ALL ABOUT YOU

DREAMS ADOZEN

They are both 4 year olds

Both have recent races

Both drop down from 2m

Looked at similar handicaps
How similar 4 year olds got on
When dropping down half a mile

Those in September were 0-25

August September October

Since 2005
Horses aged 4
Running within 25 days
Dropping from 2m races
Return a 0-63 record 
The following fail this

IT'S ALL ABOUT YOU

DREAMS ADOZEN

Fine at other times of year
But after July none have won

Not sure of its significance
Have to factor in other things
This race is for Jump Jockeys
That could make a difference
But decided to look elsewhere

JUST KISS is rejected aged 11
Without having a race in 38 days 
WHOLEOFTHEMOON looks unfit

V POWER is a 4 year old
He's ran once in 169 days
On this ground not safe enough


Shortlist

CHILLED OUT is well treated
He may like the ground as well
But has he got enough class ?

NIGHT BREEZE is topweight
Big weight soft ground as well
Hard to know if that is ideal
For a young horse as he is

HAVEYOUMISSEDME a 6yo
Has quite a positive profile
This is his best time of year
Likes a smaller field as well

Going to play it this way

Selection

£4.50 Each Way HAVEYOUMISSEDME 10/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet CHILLED OUT 14/1-12/1

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