8 Previews  

1 Account Bet 




Account Bet  
 
Doncaster 3.45

£4.50 Each Way HARTSWOOD 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet FINN RUSSELL 8/1-9/1 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





 
Final Deliberations

Very pleased with yesterday
Message worked really well 
Today's is a different type 
Purely and simply a bet hunt

Some of the races covered
Are probably over ambitious
No business covering these
That's exactly what happens
When you go on a bet hunt

Could have edited some out
But publish and be dammed

Harder than yesterday

Strike rate won't be as good
 
Choosing between 3 options



Curragh 2.25

PURPLE LILY 9/4-5/2

Win Bet
 
Most likely of the options
But she is the shortest price





Doncaster 3.45

£4.50 Each Way HARTSWOOD 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet FINN RUSSELL 8/1-9/1 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Class horse now well treated
With a saver on the fittest horse
Legends race for former jockeys
Never too sure what to expect
But he is more than capable 




Bath 4.20

£4.50 Each Way BEYOND EQUAL 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet SARAH'S VERSE 9/1-8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Always a worry with a 9 year old
I am overruling my statistics here
Because this not a true class 2
It is weaker and just have a hunch








Preview Selections



Curragh 1.50
Torivega 7/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5 (6)

Curragh 2.25
Purple Lily 9/4-5/2
Win Bet

Doncaster 3.15
£8.00 Win Bet Elim 4/1-7/2
£1.00 Win Bet Topanga 11/1-12/1
£1.00 Win Bet Great Generation 7/1

Curragh 3.35
£7.00 Win Bet Jasour 14/1
£1.00 Win Bet Kerdos16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Washington Heights 16/1
£1.00 Win Bet Makarova 20/1

Doncaster 3.45
£4.50 Each Way Hartswood 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Finn Russell 8/1-9/1 
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Doncaster 4.15
£7.50 Win Bet Tacarib Bay 11/2
£1.50 Win Bet King's Lynn 7/1
£1.00 Win Bet Spangled Mac 9/1

Bath 4.20
£4.50 Each Way Beyond Equal 10/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Sarah's Verse 9/1-8/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Doncaster 5.25 
£6.00 Win Bet Dickieburd 8/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Aramram 6/4






Yesterday's Summary

Felt it was really strong message
And the main reason it delivered
Because after my computer issues
Ruling out any bet the night before
It took all the pressure off the day
And I was able to work uninhibited
We finished up P P W P L L L W
Steady start with two place returns
Rumstar ran great in the Portland
Managed a place to return stakes
Spirit Mixer one of the strong bets
Managed to get the job well done
He always looked like the winner 
Not sure how he got into a photo
But thankfully he held on to win it
Shouldvebeenaring got his place
Good staking there but a bit lucky
Auguste Rodin finished in second
Looks the winner very close finish
Frustrating unless you went e/way
Which always looked a solid bet
Illinois was second in the St Leger
Equally frustrating in a photo finish
Canavan's race was so fascinating 
First of all we opposed the winner
Down to a long standing draw stat
My draw angles are now screaming 
They say because of 3 non runners
One withdrawn upset in the stalls
Another refused to enter the stalls
Meant there were only 7 running
That meant the draw stat was void
So I don't see that as a bust angle
The big problem with 3 non runners
Meant we also lost the 3rd place 
Canavan drifted out badly to 40/1
I was backing him at 66/1 and more
Watched him finish a gallant third
But of course only 2 places applied
Unless you backed him on Betfair
What sunk us there were 2 horses
Who were at the start but pulled out
Amazing twists and turns in the race
Felt we deserved so much better
Haveyoumissedme a stronger bet
Won beautifully landing a gamble
This horse drifted out to 14/1 early
He was around 10/1 when I sent it
Said I wanted to see  him backed  
That came later and it came hard
And we ended up on a "live one"
Top of the message did really well
Overall message was excellent
And In my view taking pressure off
Allowed me to develop it properly
And roam naked with free abandon






PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Curragh 1.50

8/1 Greek Flower, 9/1 My Mate Alfie, Torivega
10/1 Heavenly Power, 10/1 Strike Red, 12/1 Keke
12/1 Saint Lawrence, Shandy, 12/1 Summerghand
14/1 Follow Me, Kendall Roy, 14/1 Over The Blues
16/1 Apache Outlaw, Jon Riggens, No More Porter
16/1 The Highway Rat, 20/1 Bold Optimist, Sturlasson
20/1 Tango Flare, 25/1 Laugh A Minute, Pinar Del Rio
33/1 Apricot Ice, 40/1 Gunzburg, 40/1 Universally
50/1 Arnhem, 66/1 Moltophino.

6f Handicap

15 past renewals

Toxic race

Last 3 winners of this
Were 16/1 50/1 33/1
That tells it's own story

Applying some rules
And then it is a guess

The percentage call

Avoid Stall 1

Avoid stalls 22 +

Ignore 3 year olds

Avoid horses with 7+ runs
Absent over 37 days

Avoid the lowest rated

The horses down from 8f

Those with 1 run in 12 weeks

This leaves this shortlist

TORIVEGA
STRIKE RED 
SAINT LAWRENCE
APACHE OUTLAW
 
Some of them hard to read

I'd prefer a horse drawn 4-15


Selection
 
TORIVEGA 15/2-7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5 (6)







Curragh 2.25

3/1 Purple Lily, 5/1 American Sonja
13/2 Rogue Millennium, 7/1 Elizabeth Jane
7/1 Hanalia, 8/1 Goldana, 10/1 Lumiere Rock
12/1 Caught U Looking, 14/1 Wingspan
16/1 Bellezza

Blanford Stakes

10f Group race for females

15 Past renewals

Every winner of this race

Had between 4-12 runs

ELIZABETH JANE has 3 runs
The least experienced horse 
That puts me off her chance

AMERICAN SONG has 15 runs
Thats out of the ideal range for this

ROGUE MILLENNIUM has 18 runs
Easily the most exposed horse in it
And She fails the following statistic

All 15 past winners
Ran over 9f or more last time
Those from 8f or shorter 0-17

ROGUE MILLENNIUM fails this
GOLDANA also has this problem

LANDFORD is unsafe
No 4yo has won this race
Without a run within 24 days
She comes here with 45 days off

PURPLE LILY interests me

Last seen placing in Irish Oaks

Significant she is down in trip

Horses aged 3
Down from a 12 furlong race
Won this race 6 times recently 
They won this in these years

2010 2014 2016 
2019 2020 2021 
 
They all had breaks of over 3 weeks

PURPLE LILY is a good fit

She looks a very smart filly 
With more improvement than most
And no doubt laid out for this race
Her trainer won this back in 2021
With a 3yo down from a 12f race
So far that's been the right approach

Selection

PURPLE LILY 9/4-5/2

Win Bet






 
Doncaster 3.15

9/4 Fair Angellica, 13/2 Queen Of Mougins
15/2 Doom, 8/1 Great Generation, 8/1 Elim
10/1 Topanga, 11/1 Choisya,  11/1 Ziggy's Dream
14/1 Nine Tenths, 25/1 Key To Cotai
33/1 Cell Sa Beela.

Sceptre Stakes

7f Group for fillies (7f)

Looks a wide open renewal

Historically you want a 3yo or 5yo

Horses aged 4
Have a weak 2-70 record
4yo's with over 10 runs
Have a 0-43 record in this
The following all fail this

DOOM
CELL SA BEELA
CHOISYA
NINE TENTHS

QUEEN OF MOUGINS a 3yo
Comes here from a handicap

Horses aged 3
Coming from handicaps
Absent more than 8 days
Have a 0-35 record in this
QUEEN OF MOUGINS fails
KEY TO COTAI also fails ir

FAIR ANGELLICA is a 3yo
Her 70 day absence troubling
When you factor in shes drifting

ELIM has a big chance
She may be a 4 year old
But he is unexposed
Which improves her chance

ZIGGYS DREAM has a chance
Comes from one of the best trials
But she was only a 50/1 chance in it

GREAT GENERATION a 3yo
Right type but unreliable stable

TOPANGA is a positive
Hard to read last run in Gemany
But improving with momentum
Going to play it this way

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet ELIM 4/1-7/2

£1.00 Win Bet TOPANGA 11/1-12/1

£1.00 Win Bet GREAT GENERATION 7/1







Curragh 3.35

15/8 Bradsell, 7/2 Believing, 10/1 Bucanero Fuerte
12/1 She's Quality, Vadream, 14/1 Beautiful Diamond
14/1 Washington Heights, 16/1 Kerdos, Matilda Picotte
16/1 Moss Tucker, 20/1 Big Gossey, Givemethebeatboys
20/1 Jasour, 20/1 Makarova, 25/1 Go Bears Go
33/1 Go Athletico, 50/1 Desperate Hero, 66/1 Ano Syra.
 
Flying Five Stakes

Group 1 race (5f)
 
Statistically the main problem
This used to be run in August
But 10 years ago this changed
And it is now run in September
  
That is actually quite important 
It used to be run before York
Now it is run after Yorks meeting
And since that has happened
We do have an ideal trial race

The Nunthorpe

The 2014 2015 2018 2022 winners
All came from the Nunthorpe

BRADSWELL does this

BELIEVING does this
  
They dominate the market

BRADWELL has a difficult draw
And just the 2 runs in 12 months
Overall has to be a positive

BELIEVING has a fitter profile
But I'm nervous about stall 1

Go back to 2011
Curragh 5f races
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Over 11 career runs
Drawn inn stalls 1-2
Have a 0-35 record
BELIEVING 36th to try

Go back to 2011
Curragh 5f races
Listed and Group races
Any time of the year
With over 8 runners
Horses drawn 1
Absent over 8 days
Have a 0-20 record
BELIEVING fails this

Not selecting her drawn 1

BUCANERO FUERTE a 3yo
Has raced only twice in a year
That 8 day absence my worry
And he has the widest draw too
MATILDA PICOTTE is unsafe
Dropping down over 2 furlongs

Feel the favourites are short

Going to take a chance

Two beaten in the nunthorpe

One from a good trial (Kerdos)

One unlucky last week



Selection 

£7.00 Win Bet JASOUR 14/1

£1.00 Win Bet KERDO 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet WASHINGTOM HEIGHTS 16/1

£1.00 Win Bet MAKAROVA 20/1






Doncaster 3.45
 
7/1 Ten Commitments, 8/1 Hartur d'Oudairies
9/1 Tactical Control, 9/1  Terries Royale, 10/1 Beale Street
10/1 Mercurius Power, 10/1 Secret Beach, 11/1 Finn Ironside
11/1 Finn Russell, 12/1 Guiteau, Hartswood, Slaney Swagger
16/1 Crown's Lady, 16/1 English Spirit, 20/1 Strongbowe
20/1  Visibility, 25/1 King Of York, 33/1 Serious Look.
 
Classified Stakes (8f)

Legends race

Former jockeys
 
This race started in 2010

None of the 14 past winners
Were officially rated 67 or lower
All 35 that tried this were beaten
The following all fail this angle

CROWN'S LADY
FIRM IRONSIDE
TACTICAL CONTROL
KING OF YORK
SERIOUS LOOK
 
Every past winner
Was drawn in stalls 1-14
None won drawn 15 + (0-24)

SECRET BEACH fails drawn 17

Go back  to 2002
Every 8f race here
Any time of year
Horsesaged 3
Under 11 career starts 
Drawn 14 or higher
Have a 0-36 record
SECRET BEACH fails this

TEN COMMANDMENTS does too
His stamina may be stretched
On this track from a high draw

Go back to 2005
Doncaster 8f races
Under 19 runners
Horses with over 11 runs
Drawn in stall 12 or higher
Have a poor 1-106 record
The following horse all fail

MERCURIUS POWER
ENGLISH SPIRIT

HARTUR D'OUDAIRIES fails
But with the reserves coming out
Think we can ignore his draw
He does fail a later angle

No horse won aged 8 or more
STRONGBOWE an 8 year old

Horses from class 6 races
Have won this race before
But those beaten in that grade
Are 0-17coming into this race
The following pair fail this stat

FINN IRONSIDE
CROWNS LADY

Horses with over 7 runs
Absent more than 30 days
Have a 0-38 record in this
The following all fail this 

HARTUR D'OUDAIRIES
SERIOUS LOOK

VISIBILITY ran 12 days ago
Did not do enough in that run

SLANEY SWAGGER a 3yo
Does not have enough positives

GUITEAU is a 4 year old
He is coming up in distance
There are better profiles here
Horses aged 4 or more
Coming from 7f or shorter
Absent more than 9 days
Have a 0-34 record in this
Those aged 4 were 0-15
GUITEAU has this profile

TACTICAL CONTROL a 3yo
May be rated on the low side 
But he has a recent win inside
But rated 65 he misses out

Possibles

TERRIES ROYALE is a 4yo
Drawn 16 is a bit on the high side
But he's unexposed with 7 runs
And comes here after a victory

BEALE STREET is a 3yo
Lightly raced and running well
More positives than negatives
  
Unexposed horses
With under 12 career runs
Have won 5 of the 14 renewals

Those running with 4 weeks 0-33
Those absent over 4 weeks 5-27

None had recent runs

TERRIES ROYALE fails this
BEALE STREET fails this too
So not bothering saving on either

Go back to 2000
Doncaster 8f races
Any kind of race
Any class of race
Any time of year
With under 21 runners
Horses aged 4
Drawn 16 or higher
Have a 0-36 record
TERRIES ROYALE fails this


FINN RUSSELL is a 4yo
Good run at Epsom 3 days ago
Has the fittest profile in the race
But does he have enough class


HARTSWOOD is interesting

Dropped 3lbs from his last run

Lifetime low career mark today

Lots of backclass  

He has 16 runs in class 2 races

11 more than any other runner

Only 6 have ever been in that grade

I see him as the class horse

From a stable who support the race


Selection

£4.50 Each Way HARTSWOOD 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet FINN RUSSELL 8/1-9/1 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Doncaster 4.15
   
4/1 Orazio, 9/2 Baradar, 6/1 Brewing
13/2 Tacarib Bay, 7/1 King's Lynn, 10/1 Flaming Rib
10/1 Spangled Mac, 11/1 Silver Samurai, 12/1 Knebworth
14/1 Rhythm Master, 20/1 Baldomero

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-103
 
15 past renewals

Unusual distance of 6f and 111y

Looked both 6f and 7f handicaps

BARADAR won this last season
Overcoming a 48 day absence

That was then and this is now 
He is older and has 50 days off

September
Similar Class 2 handicaps
Run over both 6f and 7f
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent over 49 days
Have a 0-63 record
BARADAR only just fails this
But he does with 50 days off

Same sample size show
Horses aged 5 or older
Absent more than 76 days
Have a 0-67 record in them
BREWING fails this off 228 days

RHYTHM MASTER is rejected
With just 3 runs in 12 months

SILVER SAMURAI has had 4
But as an exposed 7 year old
With a 29 day break not for me

KNEBWORTH is an exposed 4yo
He's raced just once in 149 days
Looks too exposed to overcome it
BALDOMERO is the lowest rated
Lacks the positives of some others


ORAZIO has topweight

Combines 50 days absence
With topweight of 9st 9lbs weight

Whilst that is not a great profile
Last years winner Baradar had it
Which means he is not a negative
But neither is he the selection

SPANGLED MAC ran 5 days ago
Underperformed on softer ground
He could bounce back and win this
But has to from the widest draw
 
KING'S LYNN is a positive
Think the slight drop in trip helps
But horses aged 6 or more
Have a weak 1-46 record in this
And he fails that as a 7 year old
 
FLAMING RIB has a chance
Would not have chosen stall 1

Go back to 1997
6f handicaps here
Run in Class 2 like this
With over 7 runners
Horses with over 15 runs
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-23
FLAMING RIB would be first

TACARIB BAY ran 8 days ago
Made him a negative at Ascot
Based on weight and ground
Put up a big figure in defeat

Going with a split stake

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet TACARIB BAY 6/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet KING'S LYNN 13/2-7/1

£1.00 Win Bet SPANGLED MAC 9/1







Bath 4.20

6/1 Sarah's Verse, 6/1 Silent Flame, 6/1 Treacherous
7/1 Lipsink, 8/1 Connie's Rose, 8/1 Glamorous Express
12/1 Beyond Equal, My Delilah, 14/1 Symbol Of Hope
14/1 Under Curfew, 16/1 Crazy Luck, Delagate This Lord
16/1 Second Collection, 20/1 Vaunted, 33/1 Brian The Snail
33/1 Foreseeable Future.

5f Handicap

Class 2 race

16 runners

I mention the runners
As it is important to an angle
That is looking quite crazy

Go back to 2007
August to October
Class 2 handicaps
Run over 5f and 6f
With over 12 runners
Horses aged 8 or older
Absent more than 7 days
From a non pattern race
Have a vicious 1-326 record

That's not a typo its 1-326
But only in fields of over 12
The following horses all fail

DELEGATE THIS LORD
TREACHEROUS
BRIAN THE SNAIL
BEYOND EQUAL
FORESEEABLE FUTURE
SECOND COLLECTION
UNDER CURFEW

Will be very interesting
If we can get all those beaten

Before we get too excited
With that 1-326 statistic
The one horse that did win
Was last years winner of this

And besides that
This may be a class 2 in name
But it smells more like a class 4

Despite that opposing the horses
Who are coming from a class 6

VAUNTED does this
MY DELILAH does too

CRAZY LUCK is drawn 16
Just looks a bit too radical

LIPSINK comes from a class 5
Had just one in in 8 days now
There are many fitter profiles

GLAMOUROUS EXPRESS a 5yo
Probably enough to be shortlisted
But had too many I liked more
And his draw in 14 is difficult

Shortlist
  
SARAH'S VERSE 8/1

SILENT FLAME 6/1

CONNIE'S ROSE 9/1

SYMBOL OF HOPE 9/1
  
SARAH'S VERSE ran well last time
Missed the break drawn 1 at Sandown
Raced in last place flew home quickly
Has more than enough ability to win
But she does keep starting slowly
And may be in last place early on

SILENT FLAME is also easy to like
My biggest worry is drawn in stall 1

Go back to 1997
Bath handicaps
Under 7 furlongs
Class 3 and higher
With over 9 runners
Horses drawn 1 are 0-15
Horses drawn 1-2-3 are 1-45
I'd have liked a better record
 
CONNIE'S ROSE is a mare
She is fit and running well enough
Small field win last time out
Was against higher rated horses
My worry would be the field size

SYMBOL OF HOPE is a 6yo
May be one or two classier
But no obvious other problems

A shock addition to the shortlist

BEYOND EQUAL is a 9yo

He fails the 1-326 statistic

But only just fails by 2 days

And this is not really a class 2

It is a 0-77 class handicap

It's more of a class 3 on figures

If not a jumped up class 4 race

Started favourite for this last year

Watched some of his recent runs

He could be about to win soon


Selection

£4.50 Each Way BEYOND EQUAL 10/1

£1.00 Win Bet SARAH'S VERSE 9/1-8/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Doncaster 5.25

6/1 Aramram, Imperial Guard, 7/1 Archduke Ferdinand
7/1 Makanah, 8/1 Havana Pusey, 10/1 Dickieburd
10/1 Justcallmepete, 10/1Rock Opera, 14/1 Abate
14/1 Onemorenomore, Raatea, 16/1 Dicko The Legend
16/1 International Girl, 33/1 Myconian, 40/1 Count d'Orsay
40/1 Jump The Gun

6f Handicap

Apprentice riders

With just 2 renewals
Should not be doing this
Given how many take part

Both winners had recent runs
I would demand a fit horse

IMPERIAL GUARD a 3yo
Has questions to answer
As a 3yo with 36 days off
His draw in stall 15 interesting

Go back to 1997
Doncaster 6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 3
More than 4 career starts
Absent more than 26 days
Drawn 11 of higher
Return a 0-48 record
IMPERIAL GUARD fails this
Can't select him on that angle

I'd want a recent run
Ideally within 14 days

MAKAHAN offers this
But a 9 year old drawn 1

ARAMRAM also offers that

Half of me loves his chance

Unfit in the Shergar Cup
Lost in the Great St Wilfrid
But badly drawn up in class
Solid Goodwood run last time

But he is a 3 year old
With only 7 career starts 
Not sure enough in a big field
Especially with a big weight

Going to make him a place saver

DICKIEBURD has a recent run
Fit in form profile and well drawn

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet DICKIEBURD 8/1

£4.00 Place Bet ARAMRAM 6/4

*******************************************************
*******************************************************