Mathematician 478223-06-2024



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Final Deliberations 
 
Ascot madness is now over
Time to get back to normal

Not quite able to do it today
This is 13 messages in a row
Energy levels are getting low
And we have just 3 meetings
Most of them in small fields
So this is a quiet basic day



Not too sure what to expect

Tactical split stake message

Going through the motions

Not too worried about today

Just recovering from the week

 
No Selections








Preview Selections 


Pontefract 2.00
£5.00 Win Bet Komorkis 7/2-4/1
£5.00 Win Bet Violet Love 10/11

Ffos Las 3.10 
£6.00 Win Bet Ten O'Clock 100/30-7/2 
£4.00 Win Bet We're Reunited 13/8-6/4

Pontefract 4.00
£6.50 Win Bet Appier 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet Knightswood 7/2-4/1
£1.50 Win Bet Dancing In Paris 5/1-11/2

Pontefract 4.30
£9.00 Win Bet New Kings Road 7/4
£1.00 Win Bet Coolree 11/1





Yesterday's Summary
   
Not the usual Saturday message feel
More a punch drunk end of a festival
That has demanded much this week
Countless hard races with big fields
Did not feel we disgraced ourselves 
Don't see it ascot a glorious success 
But few will and it is about surviving
Only managed a couple of place bets
Not many options with just 6 races
Account bet unfortunately went down
I was surprised the prices collapsed 
Out On Friday the saver in that bet
Raced off too fast for his own good 
Master Dunraven hunted in mid pack
But never managed to break through
And he finished only into 5th place
No good end of a ruthless schedule
It needed a winner to rescue the day
But ultimately we failed to find that





PROFILES & PREVIEWS 
  


Pontefract 2.00

7/4 Violet Love, 2/1 Selection, 5/2 Komorkis
14/1 Suzette, 20/1 South Road 25/1 Elladora Black.


2yo Fillies Novice 6f

 
SELECTION has 1 run

KOMORKIS has 1 run

Met each other last time
 
SELECTION 2nd at 40/1

KOMORKIS 3rd at 9/4

The prices on their debuts
May give us a gentle steer
KOMORKIS is my choice
To reverse that debut form
 
VIOLET LOVE

Fittest horse
Most experience

I can see why she is 10/11

Normally I'd be all over her
Against once raced fillies here

VIOLET LOVE is a filly
 
But was not very expensive
She carries two penalties
She looks quite a small horse
So not fully sold on her here

The obvious play here

Going for a split stake bet

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet KOMORKIS 7/2-4/1

£5.00 Win Bet VIOLET LOVE 10/11







Ffos Las 3.10

7/4 We're Reunited, 2/1 Red Walls
11/4 Ten O'Clock, 10/1 Brandy Station  
 
5f Classified Stakes

RED WALLS is fit and running well
Just what you want in classified races
But he is dropping from 7f to 5f here
It's actually an extended 7f to a 5f race
Coming back only 9 days after that

Go back to 1997
5f Classified races
Any time of year
Horses from 7f or more
Running within 27 days
Return a 0-24 record in them
RED WALLS has this profile

Could argue he is a negative

Probably better in a smaller field

To describe it as an inconvenience

One that stops me selecting him
BRANDY STATION alongside him
As a 9 year old absent 257 days

Prefer two profiles

WE'RE REUNITED

TEN O'CLOCK

Completely different types
Room to bet both like this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet TEN O'CLOCK 100/30-7/2

£4.00 Win Bet WE'RE REUNITED 13/8







Pontefract 4.00

5/2 Al Anoud, 11/4 Knightswood
7/2 Dancing In Paris, 7/2 Forceful Speed
12/1 Appier, 14/1 Saratoga Gold.

12f Handicap

Horses rated 0-89

AL ANOUN is a 4yo filly
Not a convincing profile
Having just 3 career starts
Only one in several months
And carrying topweight too

The sexier horses

AL ANOUN
FORCEFUL SPEED

Have the most improvement
But are short of recent races
That may be the issue in this
Can either improve enough
To beat established horses
Older fitter and running well

Going to hope neither do

And stay with this split stake

APPIER got the final decision
Think the small field helps him

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet APPIER 9/1-10/1

£2.00 Win Bet KNIGHTSWOOD 7/2-4/1

£1.50 Win Bet DANCING IN PARIS 5/1-11/2





Pontefract 4.30

6/4 Lennon, 7/4 New Kings Road, 8/1 Coolree
10/1 Mount King, 12/1 Naval Academy, 14/1 Visibility
16/1 Eastvan, 25/1 Arranmore

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-69
 
The topweights look beatable

VISIBILITY may not be ready

NAVAL ACADEMY a 4 year old
Started 100/1 in this class last time
 
LENNON is a hot favourite 11/10

Might win but hardly bomb proof

Bottomweight going up in class

He's only raced 4 times before

He might have won 8 days ago
But this is a classier handicap
Against some older horses as well
Comes back quickly within 8 days
Having had 6 months off the track
Win lose of draw there are horses
Who have no such question marks

NEW KINGS ROAD one of them
Same age but with more experience
He has a second run this season too
Won a better class race last time out 
Making him the selection with savers

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet NEW KINGS ROAD 7/4

£1.00 Win Bet COOLREE 11/1

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