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1 Account bet

  


Account Bet
 
Newcastle 2.08

FENLAND TIGER 11/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4


  


Final Deliberations        
 
Head in the lion's mouth today
Ignoring all those smaller fields 
Tackling some tough handicaps

Saturday is much less stressful
If the first preview is a winner
Hoping that will happen today



Newcastle 1.05

MOON CHIME  1/1-10/11

Win Bet 

Short price but looks good
I'd have priced him shorter




Looking at the target races


Coral Trophy

Kempton 3.37  
£3.75 Each Way Killer Kane 11/1-12/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Blackjack Magic 11/2-6/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Forward Plan 8/1-9/1
 
When discussing this earlier in week
Blackjack Magic was my preference
Well done if you took the early 14/1
Don't beat yourself up if not I didn't
He has now been backed into 6/1
Can not justify him as the selection
So relegated him to just a saver bet
Not strong enough for a staked bet
Especially with such messy staking


Eider Chase

Newcastle 2.08

FENLAND TIGER 11/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

Bent the odd statistical rule
As this is quite a weak renewal
And there are not many runners
Several that are hard to like too
So if he copes I think he wins
Big strong powerful staying type
In a race with several negatives





Non runners and price changes

Tend to squeeze several options

Happened in a couple of races

It can constipate the message

So it had to be the Eider Chase

Not the most original of choices

Message lacks enough options

But it looks a winnable renewal









Preview Selections

Newcastle 1.05
Moon Chime  1/1-10/11
Win Bet

Kempton 1.15
£7.00 Win Bet Resplendent Grey 7/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Joker De Mai 4/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Lord Of Cheshire 10/1

Chepstow 1.58
£8.50 Win Bet Bubble Dubi 2/1-9/4 
£1.50 Win Bet Not Now Kanne 13/2
 
Newcastle 2.08
Fenland Tiger 11/2-5/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Chepstow 3.08
£6.50 Win Bet Supremely West 13/2-7/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Minella Blueway 5/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Walking On Air 7/2-4/1

Kempton 3.37 
£3.75 Each Way Killer Kane 11/1-12/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Blackjack Magic 11/2-6/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Forward Plan 8/1-9/1







Yesterday's Summary

Excellent results yesterday
Shorter 4 preview message
But we managed 3 winners 
Baileys Warrior hacked up
Thought he looked strongest
But there was a 25p rule 4
Annoyingly the main danger
Refused to go into the stalls
If you took 5/4 beforehand
Every £1 returns you £1.94
So it was just short of evens
Cailin Dearg then won well
She had got herself fit enough
To exploit a very good rating
Velvet Vulcan won after that
Split stake but a 9/4 winner
Could not make it 4 winners
Dundalk beat me in the finale
But it was a very decent day

 






30 Day Trial

Monitoring what would happen
If we have a daily account bet 
Simply a trial not advised bets 
 
Account Bet 14
  
Newcastle 1.05
Moon Chime  1/1-10/11
Win Bet

Yesterdays bet a non runner

Current profit  
£10 stakes - £16.16
 
Results sequence
WWP LLLPLLPLWW
  






PROFILES & PREVIEWS      


   

Newcastle 1.05

11/10 Moon Chime, 2/1 Rocket Ronald
3/1 Big John Wayne, 33/1 Hemicycle

Novice Hurdle 2m 4f

Should be a 3 horse race

MOON CHIME can take this

Has the most experience
Has the best numbers too
On heavy ground at this track
He could have an advantage

When his 2 main dangers
Have raced only once before

Go back to 2007
January to March
Novice Hurdles 2m 4f +
Horses aged 6 or more
1 career run in a hurdle
Beaten in that hurdle run
Absent more than 59 days
Return a 0-91 record in them
ROCKET RONALD fails
Just 1 run and 91 days off
My angles don't like him

Helps support the view
MOON CHIME should win

Selection

MOON CHIME 1/1-11/10

Win Bet






Kempton 1.15

4/1 Joker De Mai, 6/1 Largy Poet 8/1 Lord Of Cheshire,
10/1 Mark Of Gold 11/1 Resplendent Grey, 12/1 Samuel Spade
14/1 No Ordinary Joe, 20/1 Boombawn 20/1 West To The Bridge 
40/1 In From The Cold.

2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
 
Horses rated 0-142

The race has cut up badly

5 non runners

All of these were negatives

NO ORDINARY JOE 
He is now the topweight

Horses with 11st 11lbs +
Have a weak 1-28 record 
NO ORDINARY JOE fails 
Just 1 run in the last 85 days 

Horses with 12 + hurdle runs
Beaten last time out
Have a 0-53 record in this
The following horses fail this
 
MARK OF GOLD
WEST TO THE BRIDGE 
IN FROM THE COLD

BOOMBAWN is absent too long

SAMUEL SPADE is a 5 year old
Not doing enough last time out
Seems fancied and is well backed 
If you look at his sires hurdlers
None have won beyond 2m 3f 
Could be wrong but not for me 
 
LARGY POET is a 5 year old
Just 3 runs and 2 over hurdle
Unsafe profile the 2014 winner
Did win with just 2 hurdle ones
But came from a Novice hurdle
LARGY POET is from a maiden
Racing Post Ratings 100 and 119
Maybe a handicap mark of 127
Looks to be a little on the high side
Needs to improve again to win

JOKER DE MAI is a 5yo
Can't quite match him to a winner
Lightly raced with an absence
But non runners are significant
And his chance has increased
  
LORD OF CHESHIRE a 7yo
Lightly raced with several positives 
Making him a small second saver

RESPLENDENT GREY likewise
Non runners improve his chances  
Lightly raced 6yo with just 7 runs
  

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet RESPLENDENT GREY 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet JOKER DE MAI 4/1

£1.00 Win Bet LORD OF CHESHIRE 10/1








Chepstow 1.58

11/4 Zambezi Fix, 7/2 Bubble Dubi, 4/1 Not Now Kanne
5/1 Up For Parol, 7/1 Storming Nelson, 10/1 In From The Cold
10/1 Three Cliffs Bay, 33/1 Kojin, 50/1 Jack In The Box.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

UP FOR PATROL has topweight
Well beaten over further last time
He would not be my first choice

ZAMBEZI FIX is a 9 year old

Oldest horse in the race
Older than all past winners
Happy to oppose a 9 year old
From a Novice handicap chase
Into a 2 mile handicap hurdle
He won this race last season
Not with today's profile though
Happy to avoid recent returners
If they have poor last races
STORMING NELSON is one
THREE CLIFFS BAY another
As are the two rank outsiders

IN FROM THE COLD is a 7yo
Can offer some sort of case  
But he recently downgraded stables
Sold cheaply which puts me off

NOT NOW KANNE has a chance
Hard to read lightly raced 5yo
Lightweights haven't done too well
And he does come here off a fall
I'd see him more saver than selection

BUBBLE DUBI is a 7yo
Lightly raced enough experience
Not worried about 63 days off
Several past winners of this race
Won having had similar breaks

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BUBBLE DUBI 2/1-9/4

£1.50 Win Bet NOT NOW KANNE 13/2






Newcastle 2.08

4/1 Anglers Crag, 11/2 Fenland Tiger, 13/2 Flower Of Scotland
7/1 Gold Clermont, 8/1 Tommie Beau, 9/1 The Galloping Bear
10/1 Cruz Control, Major Dundee, 12/1 Christopher Wood
14/1 Rath An Iuir, 16/1 Prince Des Fichaux, 66/1 Easy Bucks.

Eider Handicap Chase

Class 2 Handicap 4m1f
 
Official Ratings of winners

132 132 139 135 140 127 126 134 133 
131 132 125 139 138 131 137 123 123

Go back to 1998
Every winner since 1998
Was officially rated 123 or more
The following horses all fail this
 
FLOWER OF SCOTLAND
FENLAND TIGER
GOLD CREMONT
RATH AN IUIR
EASY BUCKS
PRINCE DES PICHAUX
   
THE GALLOPING BEAR 

Topweight and rated 140
 
Only 1 previous winner of this
Has won rated 140 or higher
That was a 9 year old (2018)

Go back to 2010
January February March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Class 2 or higher
With over 5 runners
Horses aged 11 or more 
Absent more than 34 days
Carrying 10st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-74  record in them 
THE GALLOPING BEAR fails this   
And the following breeding statistic
 
Horses sired by Shantou 
Over 3m 3f or more
Class 2 or higher
Absent over 34 days
Have a 0-33 record so far
THE GALLOPING BEAR fails this  

Past winners
Had the Following Chase runs

20 6 9 17 7 7 11 8 11 5
5 7 13 21 9 7 13 13 8

No Past winner of this
Had under 5 chase runs    
FENLAND TIGER has 4   

Runs since August 1st
Past winners had these runs
3 4 4 3 2 3 5 3 3 5 2
5 3 4 4 6 7 7 4 3 6 6
No winner had 1 run since August 
FLOWER OF SCOTLAND does
He looks quite underraced to me

No horses with over 7 chase runs
Won with under 3 runs that year
All 46 that tried this were beaten
The following horses all fail this
 
THE GALLOPING BEAR  
EASY BUCKS
FLOWER OF SCOTLAND

Go back to 2009
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Any time of the season
Horses with over 12 chase runs
Absent more than 93 days
Have a 0-51 record in them
FLOWER OF SCOTLAND fails
If you include his French races

18 of the previous 20 winners
Won with under 14 chase runs 
TOMMIE BEAU has 21 chases 
  
No past winner 
Ran over 2m 6f or shorter last time 
CRUZ CONTROL would be the first

Go back to 2008
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Any time of the season
Horses aged 7 or more
Under 9 chase runs
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Have a 0-39 record
CRUZ CONTROL 40th to try

Go back to 2001
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Any time of the season
Horses aged 7 or more
Under 9 chase runs
Coming from 2m 4f or less
Carrying 10st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-54 record in them
CRUZ CONTROL 55th to try

Horses with over 27 career runs
Have a 0-62 record in this race

CHRISTOPHER WOOD has 40

TOMMY BEAU has 32 

13 of the last 15 winners
Shared the below profile

Aged 7-8-9-10-11
Under 30 career runs
Ideally 5-14 Chase runs
Under 13 Hurdles
11st 10lbs or more
2 + runs in 4 months 
Coming from 2m 7f     

Two horses have this profile

MAJOR DUNDEE
ANGLERS CRAG
 
MAJOR DUNDEE a 9yo
Not in a good place right now
But his last 3 runs explainable
Underraced in Welsh National
Warwick chase came too soon
There is always the risk here
The Midlands National in March
Could be the horses main target
 
ANGLERS CRAG is fine
Comes here on a four timer
But will he stay by Multiplex ?
Sire has bred a 3m 4f winner
But just 1 winner past 3m 2f

Horses who last time out
Won a class 3 handicap
In the previous 6 weeks
Have a modest 1-36 record
Those aged 10 or younger
Have a 0-30 record so far
ANGLERS CRAG has this profile

Because of the smaller field

And a weaker renewal this year

Some angles can be overlooked

RATH AN LUIR is rated 115
Normally that would be too low 
He was 6th in the 2022 renewal
When he only had 3 chase runs
He was my selection last year
He just grabbed a place at 14/1

Handicap Mark of 131 in 2022
Handicap Mark of 118 in 2023
Handicap Mark of 115 in 2024

I'd give him a chance here
But he was hammered last time

Go back to 2001
Handicap Chases
Run over 3m 4f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Any time of the season
Horses aged 11 or more
Over 12 chase runs
Running within 45 days
Coming from 3m 2f or shorter
From a non graded race
Beaten over 27 lengths last time
Return a 0-49 record in them all
RATH AN LUIR shares this profile
 
FENLAND TIGER on a hat trick
Maybe able to win with 4 chases
Because of the weaker renewal
Bred to relish this far on heavy
Big strong horse who jumps well

Selection
 
FENLAND TIGER 11/2-5/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Chepstow 3.08

7/2 Walking On Air, 13/2 Thanksforthehelp
7/1 Bells Of Peterboro, Supremely West, 8/1 Conkwell Legend
8/1 Glimpse Of Gala, 8/1 Monmiral, 10/1 Minella Blueway
11/1 Collectors Item, 12/1 Alaphilippe, 20/1 Classic Concorde
25/1 Gentleman At Arms.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

MONMIRAL is topweight

Switches from fences to hurdles
So do many of his rivals here
Some did several past winners
Not ruling him out of winning
But high weights have struggled
No winners had 11st 8lbs or more

Horses aged 9 or more
Have a weak record in this (1-99)
No doubt 6 year olds are best (6-22)
 
WALKING ON AIR is a 7yo

First impression oppose him
As he has raced once this year
But there are 2 past winners
Who were lightly raced like him
Who came here from a chase
Having had just 1 run this year
The 2016 and 2021 winners did it
Thats when I decided to split stake

MINELLA BLUEWAY is a 6yo
He is a lightly raced 6 year old
He plays a saver role as well

SUPREMELY WEST first choice

With the 6 year olds who do well

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet SUPREMELY WEST 13/2-7/1

£1.50 Win Bet MINELLA BLUEWAY 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet WALKING ON AIR 7/2-4/1






Kempton 3.37

5/1 Blackjack Magic, 5/1 Flegmatik, 7/1 Bowtogreatness
7/1 Forward Plan, 7/1 Lord Baddesley, 7/1 Tweed Skirt
8/1 Il Ridoto, 12/1 Killer Kane, Unanswered Prayers
14/1 Al Dancer, 14/1 Cap Du Nord, 16/1 Sam Brown.
 
Graded Handicap Chase 3m

Go back to 2017

Last 17 renewals

Winners chase runs

7 26 13 9 10 11 4 17 
10 8 3 28 6 9 6 7 11  
  
15 of the the  17 past winners
Had no more than 17 chases

16 of the 17 winners
Were aged 9 or younger too

Horses aged 10 or more
Have a 1-62 record since 2004 
Those absent under 60 days
Have a 0-60 record in this race

The following look unsafe
Either too old exposed or both

SAM BROWN a 12 year old
Who also has to carry topweight

CAP DU NORD is an 11 year old
Has not looked at his best this year

AL DANCER is also a 11 year old
He's raced just once in 118 days
Has never won off this mark before

FLEGMATIK has 20 chase runs
That is far from in the ideal range
Always questioned his stamina
He has twice won over this far
On better ground in smaller fields
 
Go back to 2001
Horses aged 9 and older
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 11st 4lbs or less
Have a 0-57 record in this
FLEGMATIK shares this profile
He's going to need a career best

IL RIDOTO is a 7 year old
Does not look the right kind

Horses aged 7
Won 5 previous renewals 
They all had 11st or less weight
Those with more are 0-25 so far
IL RIDOTO carries 11st 9lbs
They all had under 20 career runs
They all had  under 10 chases 
IL RIDOTO has far more than this
 
Horses under 9 years old
More than 11 chase runs
Have a 0-42 record since 1999
IL RIDOTO fails this statistic
 
LORD BADDESLEY is a 9yo
He faces 84 days off the track
  
Go back to 2001
Horses aged 9 and older
Absent more than 28 days
Carrying 11st 4lbs or less
Have a 0-57 record in this
LORD BADDESLEY fails this
All his wins in far lower class
There is a breeding doubt too

Horses sired by Doyen 
Running in Listed and Graded class
Have a modest 3-67 record
Those on soft-heavy are 0-23
Those absent over 42 days 0-15
LORD BADDESLEY is out

TWEED SKIRT is a 7 year old
None of the 7yo winners so far
Have won with more than 11st
All 25 failed she has 3lbs more
Could forgive that it's manageable
But she is a mare and none won
And she comes from a hurdle race
And no previous winners did that

BOWTOGREATNESS is an 8yo
Horses his age won 9 renewals
But most won last time out
Most came from 2m 5f or more
BOWTOGREATNESS does not

Horses aged 8
Beaten last time out
Have a weak 2-66 record
Those from 2m 6f or less
Have a 0-33 record so far

This is quite interesting

January to March
Handicap Chases
Listed and graded races
Any distance in these months
Look at horses of any age
Under 3 runs this season
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Running within 5 weeks
Beaten 13 + lengths last time
You find a 0-48 record in them
BOWTOGREATNESS fails this 
 
UNANSWERED PRAYERS an 8yo
Rated 128 and has 59 days absence

Horses rated 129 or lower
Won just 1 of 17 renewals
He is trying to be the second

Not convinced he has enough class
Never won in class 2 or higher before
But he is still not too exposed 
He has had some excuses as well
Last time was a confidence round
Having not completed in 2 chases
One of which when hampered 
So would not rule him out here
But he is not prove in this class

FORWARD PLAN is an 8yo
Beaten in a photo last time out
Lots of positives a good weight
Stables number 2 but respected

BLACKJACK MAGIC a 9yo
Looks to have strong claims

First time out
Won the Badger Beer Chase

His next two runs
He failed strong statistics

Excusable defeat at Ascot
We opposed him that day

Sandown last time out
Failed a generic statistic
Had more weight than ideal
More than any winner had
Over that course and distance
Going back over two decades

Both his Previous 2 defeats
Understandable and predictable

Against him the price
Liked him at 14/1 midweek
He is a lot shorter now at 6/1

And a statistical problem
Horses aged 9 or more
Under 8 chase runs
Have a 0-20 record in this
He does fail this statistic
Because of that and the price
Going to make him a saver bet 

KILLER KANE is a 9yo
Finished 3rd just 15 days ago
No winners beaten last time out
Ran within the last 3 weeks (0-22)
KILLER KANE fails this statistic 
But not bothered about that race
He ran well was not beaten far
He was entitled to need the run
Some argue he wants better going
But he has lots of soft ground form
He finished 5th in this last season
This looks a weaker renewal too
In the last 2 seasons he has won
On his 4th run of the season
This is his fourth run of the year

Selection

£3.75 Each Way KILLER KANE 11/1-12/1
 
£1.50 Win Bet BLACKJACK MAGIC 11/2-6/1

£1.00 Win Bet FORWARD PLAN 8/1-9/1 

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