9 Previews
0 Account Bet


No Account Bet



Favourite Bet (s)
  
Yarmouth 2.00
£6.00 Win Bet Bretton Wood 7/1
£4.00 Win Bet El Burhan 13/8-7/4

Redcar 2.15
Jungle Land 1/1
Win Bet

Cartmel 3.30
£6.00 Win Bet Welsh Saint 3/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Mill Green 5/4 





Final Deliberations 

 
Bank Holiday Monday

9 Previews

It is quite a heavy schedule 

Lost a few decent options
One or two are non runners 

Message has suffered a little
Chopping and changing bets
It is what it is with 9 previews


No strong bet today

Far too chaotic for that

The best bet at a good price
Was one of the non runners
Wanted to mention 3 races





Yarmouth 2.00

£6.00 Win Bet BRETTON WOODS 7/1

£4.00 Win Bet EL BURHAN 13/8-6/4

These are experienced horses
Taking on debutants on soft
Could have staked it far safer
El Burhan could be a win bet
Bretton Woods a place saver
But going with the above stake





Redcar 2.15

JUNGLE LAND 1/1

Win Bet

Bit short clipped 5/4 to evens
But think he should have enough





Cartmel 3.30

£6.00 Win Bet WELSH SAINT 3/1 

£4.00 Win Bet MILL GREEN 5/4 

This was the strongest option
Had penciled this in as "Best bet"
But the priced have shortened
And there are only the 4 runners 
Welsh Saint becomes over 11/8
Most stakes back on the favourite
Taking on two horses with issues




Staying with the above 3 bets

All seem decent low key bets





Novelty Bet

This is a last minute thought

Something just crossed my mind

Not trying to confuse of mislead

But if you take these three horses

Put them in an each way treble


Yarmouth 2.00 - El Burhan 13/8-7/4

Redcar 2.15 Jungle Land 1/1

Cartmel 3.30 - Mill Green 5/4 

Each Way Treble


If they all win its a 11/1 treble
Cash back if they all place too
May just be worth a small bet
Alongside the main 3 selections





Preview Selections
 
Yarmouth 1.30
£8.50 Win Bet Tonal 11/4
£1.50 Win Bet Kodebreaker 6/1-11/2

Leicester 1.55 
Corsican Caper 13/8-6/4 
Win Bet

Yarmouth 2.00
£6.00 Win Bet Bretton Wood 7/1
£4.00 Win Bet El Burhan 13/8-7/4

Redcar 2.15
Jungle Land 1/1-10/11
Win Bet

Leicester 2.30
£6.00 Win Bet Salamanca City 6/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Born A Rebel 11/4-3/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Darysina Gold 6/1

Cartmel 3.30
£6.00 Win Bet Welsh Saint 3/1 
£4.00 Win Bet Mill Green 5/4 

Leicester 3.40
£8.00 Win Bet Chortal 3/1
£2.00 Win Bet Kitty Furnival 4/1

Cartmel 5.45
£3.50 Each Way City Derby 8/1
£3.00 Win Bet Shantou Moon 16/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Leicester 5.55 
£4.25 Each Way Haaf A Diamond 7/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Moon Over The Sea 13/2 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4






Yesterday's Summary 

It wasn't a bad message all in all
With 2 winners 1 placed 3 losers
Heavens Gate winning the opener
Was a good start to the message
Didn't get the Irish 1000g winner
GOLDANA was my best option
Ran a really good race to place
No damage beat his stablemate
Only my main danger beat him
Stakes returned a decent effort
Like most of the message really
It felt like a healthy score draw

  





PROFILES & PREVIEWS
  
  


Yarmouth 1.30

3/1 Tonal, 9/2 Alibaba, 9/2 Meng Tian
6/1 Kodebreaker, 10/1 Bo Taifan
12/1 Charlatan, Handel, 14/1 Anif
14/1 Realised 100/1 Streetstorm.

8f Handicap

TONAL is the fittest horse

Sometimes that is just enough

But he is up in distance here
And is draw widest in stall 11

Go back 25 years
Yarmouth 8f handicaps
With under 12 runners
Horses drawn 11
Have won just 1 race
In a modest 1-27 record
Not definitive by any means
But it is the worst draw 
He could be a place option
Draw proves too much for him
But fitness ensures he goes well

ALIBABA is a 7yo
Just 1 run in 108 days
Wanted a better profile

PEROVSKIA is hard to trust
From his stable when so raw
ANIF is out a 10yo up in trip
 
HANDEL has a 1-27 record
17 of those runs over a mile

His only win was at a mile
There was a false pace then
He came from last to first
Appreciate he has form at 8f
But think he is more a 7f type
His pedigree suggests it to me
Most people disagree with this
But I would keep him on side

KODEBREAKER is respected
He is fit and in reasonable form
But his numbers are quite low

MENG TIAN won last time out
But has had 53 days off since
REALISED doesn't look ready
 
HANDEL is quite interesting 
Partly because he is backed  
Poor horse in a poor race 
Always thought he is a horse
Who is better over shorter
 
CHARLATAN is interesting

Landed a hat trick in the Spring
He was beaten going for a 4 timer
Because of too many recent runs 
He then had a break of 66 days
Came back at this track last time
He ran ok as he had the worst draw
And it was a grade higher than this
Going with him in  a split stake
With a fitness based saver onside

CHARLATAN is a non runner

PEROVSKIA also a non runner

Thats messed by staking up

But it helps Tonal

In terms of the draw

So he is now forgiven that

Having a "Fit" saver as well


Selection
 
£8.50 Win Bet TONAL 11/4

£1.50 Win Bet KODEBREAKER 6/11-11/2






Leicester 1.55

5/2 Corsican Caper, 7/2 Churchill Rose
4/1 Dubai Immo, 5/1 Foursome, 8/1 Hot Team
10/1 Trackman, 14/1 Bascinet, 20/1 Alghazaal
25/1 Lookingdandy, 33/1 Valegro.
 
12f Handicap
  
Apprentice Riders

VALEGRO is topweight
With 446 days off the track
He looks an unlikely winner
If we manage to get him beat

CORSICAN CAPER rated 64

Only faces a 0-58 class field

He has the fittest profile
Won 3 of his last 4 races

Won at Haydock 2 days ago
He beat rivals officially rated
71 74 65 74 69 73 68 71
Todays race is much weaker

If he runs his race
He should be too good for them

But several recent runs
This race could come too soon
For that reason I want a saver

TRACKMAN is not suitable
With several months absence

DUBAI IMMO was considered
But he is drawn 10 of 10 here

This is one strange draw stat

Leicester 12f handicaps
Going back to 1997
With under 11 runners

Horses drawn 10 are 0-20
Horses drawn 9 are 1-45

Horses drawn 9 or higher
Absent more than 7 days
Have a 0-62 record in them
DUBAI IMMO fails drawn 10
FOURSOME also fails drawn 9

Obviously non runners
Would damage that angle
But the implication is clear
The highest draw are unsafe

CHURCHILL ROSE a filly
Would have been the saver
But she is now a non runner

Selection 

CORSICAN CAPER 13/8-6/4

Win Bet







Yarmouth 2.00

 6/4 Attack, 9/4 El Burhan, 6/1 Van Aert
9/1 Dr T H G, 10/1 Bretton Wood, 12/1 Big Cyril
16/1 Pivotal Days, 33/1 Mr Ubiquitous
66/1 Lazieelunch

2yo Novice 7f

EL BURHAN has a run

His debut was 8 days ago

Pitched into a Newmarket novice

Could have too much for these
Most of his rivals are unraced
They will need to be pretty good
To win on debut over 7f on soft
Against and experienced horse

ATTACK can't be ruled out
Top class stable and expensive
But prefer experienced 2yo's
When over 7f and on soft ground

VAN ALERT is sired by Masar
Sires unraced 3yo's on turf are 0-27

Bit pointless to rely on these things

The favourite is most likely winner

Was not knocked about on debut

Win here then Royal Ascot looms

But only 8 days recovery time
And will he appreciate the soft ?
Decided he was the saver bet

BRETTON WOODS is chosen

He has the most experience

He comes out top on sire stats

He was drawn 8 at Chester

Failed a 27 year draw statistic

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet BRETTON WOODS 9/1-10/1

£4.00 Win Bet EL BURHAN 13/8-6/4






 
Redcar 2.15

5/4 Jungle Land, 5/2 Rainwater, 4/1 Tourist
6/1 Cash In, 9/1 Coppull Hall Lane, 20/1 Myal
33/1 Rogers Dream, 50/1 Titainium
66/1 Blue Force, Doodlebug, Hill Run
66/1 Lumenbourg.

3yo Maiden 6f
 
JUNGLE LAND has 2 runs

Well drawn sets the standard

I think he should be winning

Part of the reason for that
His biggest market rival
Has the worst of the draw

Go back to 1997

Redcar 6f races

Under 14 runners

Horses with under13 runs
Drawn in stall 13 are 0-48
RAINWATER fails this

TOURIST has 126 days off
Not ideal having had 7 races

CASH IN maybe a danger

Selection

JUNGLE LAND 1/1

Win Bet

Leicester 2.30

3/1 Born A Rebel, 4/1 Last Empress, 11/2 Salamanca City
6/1 Baynoona, 13/2 Dancingwithmyself, 7/1 Darysina Gold
10/1 L'Experianza, 12/1 Rosy Kiss, 25/1 Queen's Music
33/1 Bramble Jelly.

3yo Fillies Handicap (8f)

Horses rated 0-70

BORN A REBEL is topweight

Ran her profile she passed ok 

Go back to 2011
Leicester 8f handicaps
Under 12 runners
Horses drawn 9 or higher
Absent more than 17 days
Have a nasty 0-71 record
LAST EMPRESS fails this
BRAMBLE JELLY also fails

ROSY KISS is rejected
Too unorthodox down 3f
L'EXPERIANZA is unsafe
Just wanted more in profile

One of the known unknowns
BAYNOONA with just 3 runs
Will she be fit and ready today ?
If she is then she is a danger
But a combination she brings
Of a big weight and absence
Does knock her profile a little

BAYNOONA is not a non runner

Shortlisting 3

BORN A REBEL
DARYSINA GOLD
SALAMANCA CITY
 
Going to stagger this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SALAMANCA CITY 6/1

£2.50 Win Bet BORN A REBEL 11/4-3/1

£1.50 Win Bet DARYSINA GOLD 6/1




Cartmel 3.30

6/4 Mill Green, 2/1 Welsh Saint,
7/2 Jelski, 7/1 Punitive

Veterans' Handicap Chase 3m5f

MILL GREEN is the class horse

He may be 12yo off 74 days
But he faces limited resistance

Official Ratings

137 Mill Green
127 Punitive
112 Jelski
109 Welsh Saint

MILL GREEN rated 137

Only faces a 0-127 class race

PUNITIVE ran just 2 days ago
He was beaten 39 lengths then
Hard to like him on that run
If he is beaten then Mill Green
Only faces rivals rated 112 + 109

JELSKI has a lot to prove here
Coming up from a 2m 4f race
With just the 1 run in 273 days

Goo back to 1997
Every handicap chase
Even run over 3m 5f + 
Horses aged 9 or more
Over 10 chase runs
Coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Absent more than 11 days
Just 1 run in the last 12 weeks
Return a 0-59 record in them
JELSKI has this profile

WELSH SAINT is a 10yo
He is limited but gets 2 stone
He looks the biggest danger

MILL GREEN may be a 12yo
But only has 5 chase runs so far

This looks a match

A small field weakens angles

Going to split stake this

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet WELSH SAINT 3/1 

£4.00 Win Bet MILL GREEN 5/4 






Leicester 3.40

7/4 Regal Connection, 3/1 Chortal, 11/2 Castle Cove
11/2 King Affection, 6/1 Kitty Furnival, 14/1 Mawayed
20/1 Anhydrous, 50/1 Run Of Luck, 50/1 Tottori.

10f Novice (3yo)

Not many can win this
Several unraced and unknown

REGAL CONNECTION one
Can not bet him drawn 9 of 9
No unraced horse at this track
Over 10f drawn higher than 8 

Prefer lower drawn experience

CHORTAL ran well at Chester
Hard to know if that was enough
But he was having his debut run
His rivals were very experienced
He is first choice with a saver

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet CHORTAL 3/1

£2.00 Win Bet KITTY FURNIVAL 4/1






Cartmel 5.45

7/2 Hobb's Delight, 5/1 Secret Secret, 6/1 Attitash
7/1 Sean Og, 8/1 Show No Fear, 10/1 Mr Rumbalicious
10/1 Pateen, 14/1 City Derby, Sanosuke, 16/1 Hollington
16/1 Winds Of Fire, 20/1 Native Fighter, Shantou Moon
25/1 The Roc Hopper.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

HOBBS DELIGHT is favourite

He faces 115 days off

Bit lightly raced for this track
Having had only 7 career runs

Go back to
March April May June
Handicap Hurdles 2m 6f + 
Over 8 runners
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 8 career starts
Absent over 63 days
Have a 1-143 record in them
HOBBS DELIGHT fails this
I'd want a better profile than his
 
HOLLINGTON is inexperienced
THE ROCK HOPPER is too raw
WINDS OF FIRE absent too long
MR RUMBALICOUD is rejected
He is coming up from a 2m race

SHOW NO FEAR is a 4yo 
Just 1 run since last January 
Happy to oppose him here
PATEEN is an underraced 12yo

NATIVE FIGHTER is a 10yo
Not for me with 179 days off
SECRET SECRET is exposed
Maybe too much for 180 days off

SANOSUKE is hard to read
Neither selected or rejected

SEAN OG has been chasing
Might win has some positives
But also carries topweight

ATITASH has been chasing
Can't rule out but not for me

SHANTOU MOON is a 7yo
He looks quite well handicapped
Interesting stable move as well
Could be worth shortlisting
 
CITY DERBY is a positive
Good course/distance record
Clearly well treated right now
All his wins are before July

Selection

£3.50 Each Way CITY DERBY 10/1

£3.00 Win Bet  SHANTOU MOON 16/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Leicester 5.55

7/2 Stintino Sunset, 4/1 Crazy Crackers, 7/1 Haaf A Diamond
7/1 Moon Over The Sea, 8/1 Khangai, 10/1 Bay Of Naples
10/1 Portoro, 12/1 Payment Plan, 14/1 Camacho Man
16/1 Dark Company, Walk The Moon, 50/1 Glory And Gold
50/1 Regency Boy

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-57

CRAZY CRACKERS topweight
He won well 2 runs ago on sand
Last time out he was just unlucky
Ran here in a similar handicap
Ended up last and was impeded
He finished with a lot in hand
One of the few definite positives

Not so keen on several others

STINTINO SUNSET a 4yo filly
Has just raced once in 95 days
Thats fine but with 24 career runs
She is more exposed than is ideal

KHANGAI is quite similar
She is also a  4 year old filly
Quite exposed with 19 runs
She's ran once badly in 158 days

Similar races in May
With over 6 runners show
Horses aged 4
More than 4 career runs
Absent over 53 days
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-32 record in them
WALK THE MOON fails this
REGENCY BOY does as well

PAYMENT PLAN drawn 13
Worst draw and inexperienced

BAY OF NAPLES is an 8yo
He faces a nasty 45 days off
His sire stats interest me

Horses sired by Exceed and Excel
Running over 10f and more
Ground is on the soft side
Those absent over 21 days are 1-64
Those absent over 41 days are 0-27
BAY OF NAPLES just fails this

DARK COMPANY has 91 days off
GLORY AND GOLD even longer

CAMACHO MAN is a 7yo
Raced only once since 2022
Looks underraced for his age

PORTORO has a lot to prove
Up in trip with several weeks off
No negative but no winner like him

Shortlist

CRAZY CRACKERS is a non runner

He would have been the selection
 
HAAF A DIAMOND a 4yo filly
Ran well disadvantaged last time
In the same race as Crazy Crackers
She is a positive and shortlistable

MOON OVER THE SEA is too

Selection

£4.25 Each Way HAAF A DIAMOND 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet MOON OVER THE SEA 13/2
  
1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

*******************************************************
*******************************************************