4 Previews  
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Favourite Bet


Newcastle 4.00

£3.00 Each Way Glasses Up 22/1-25/1

£4.00 Win Bet Awtaad Prince 11/2






Final Deliberations
  
Decisions made about this week
Tomorrow doing a split message
Full details about that are below



4 Previews

Dinky little message

I like each of the previews


Catterick 2.47

TARBAT NESS 5/2-11/4

Win Bet

This should be a match
My draw stats decided it
There are just 8 runners 
If they all take their place
I'd be tempted each way
But will leave it up to you




Newcastle 4.00

£3.00 Each Way GLASSES UP 22/1-25/1

£4.00 Win Bet AWTAAD PRINCE 11/2

Taking a chance in this race

Awtaad Prince a more likely winner
Want something out of him if he wins
So staked him as a £4.00 win single

Glasses Up the rank outsider

Much harder to see him winning

But have a theory why he might

Could have staked this safer

Going place only Awtaad Prince

But just keeping things simple 





This Weeks Plans

Decided not to have a day off
But tomorrow looks very grim
Just littered with smaller fields
Going to change the dynamic


Wednesdays Message

Mainly an ante post message
May well cover 1 or 2 previews
But focusing on the weekend
Just need a decision free day


Target race

Sundays 

Cork Grand National

But there are Saturday races
I wanted to look at ante post

Charlie Hall Chase one of them

Ascot's Sodexo Gold Cup too
Will be covering them as well

Tomorrow is mainly ante post 
But will cover the odd race too  

I will include a selection at 16/1  
That is worth betting ante post 
This event runs in the next month

I am in total disgrace at home
Tired from the weekend racing
Accidentally set a smoke alarm off
That we couldn't silence for ages
I then dropped a big bowl of food
Chicken casserole and vegetables
Smashed everywhere in the kitchen
Duchess got home tired from work
Having done a hard days cleaning
Not happy to be greeted by all that
Tried to clean up before she arrived
Cut my fingers to ribbons on shards
Took the verbal punishments well
But later on once the dust settled
Closed some spanking new blinds
Amateurishly got blood over them
That went down like a lead balloon

So taking the stress away tomorrow

Need to freshen up clear my head

With a different kind of message  

Which should help at the weekend


 


Preview Selections


Catterick 12.40
£5.00 Win Bet Genius Mistake 7/2-4/1
£5.00 Win Bet Farandaway 10/11

Catterick 1.12 
Fortunate Star 11/8
Win Bet

Catterick 2.47
Tarbat Ness 5/2-11/4
Win Bet

Newcastle 4.00
£3.00 Each Way Glasses Up 22/1-25/1
£4.00 Win Bet Awtaad Prince 11/2






Yesterday's Summary   
  
Short non committal message
Covering just the 3 previews
Got a winner loser and a place
Cresta Cat the favourite bet
Hacked up winning 6 lengths
Claiming this as a small victory







PROFILES & PREVIEWS


 
 
Catterick 12.40

10/11 Farandaway, 11/4 Hi Lord
3/1 Genius Mistake, 16/1 Sarabi.

2yo Maiden 5f

Should involve 3 horses

FARANDAWAY is around 10/11
Thats short but the best chance

He has raced twice before

HI LORD has raced once

GENUIS MISTAKE has 3 runs
On figures she is the 3rd choice
But she has the most experience
Has the shortest absence as well
And gets the sex allowance too

Any of the three could win

Makes sense to split stake 
The two most experienced 

Possible at Betfair prices
Much harder with the firms

Something close to this bet
Would be the strategy I'd use

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet GENUIS MISTAKE 7/2-4/1

£5.00 Win Bet FARANDAWAY 10/11






Catterick 1.12

6/4 Fortunate Star, 2/1 Kyber Crystal
6/1 Too Much Too Young, 6/1 Turn And Burn
12/1 Quanah, 33/1 Ninety Nine

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-56

KYBER CRYSTAL rated 56
 
FORTUNATE STAR rated 52

They face a 0-48 class field
Would prefer the older horses
Who just have better figures

TOO MUCH TOO YOUNG a 3yo
Started his career in a 7f race
He's never raced over 5f before

TURN AND BURN another 3yo
Rated just 47 having had 7 runs
Twice been sold very cheaply
Not drawn to any of the 3yo's

Hard to split the topweights

KYBER CRYSTAL fails an angle

It is very tight only just fails it

Go back to 2007
5f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Any time of year
Not Amateur riders races
Not Apprentice handicaps

Mares aged 5
Absent more than 22 days
Carrying 9st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-31 record in them
KYBER CRYSTAL fails this

One or two older mares did it
But none aged 5 with that profile

FORTUNATE STAR a 4yo
Younger with a more recent run
Just looks to have a safer profile

Selection

FORTUNATE STAR 11/8

Win Bet







Catterick 2.47

5/4 Captain Potter, 7/2 Bonne Vitesse
5/1 Tarbat Ness, 6/1 Catrake Force, 10/1 Malinka
16/1 Bollin Neil, 33/1 Somebodycomegether
50/1 Gold Ring.

2m Handicap

Horses rated 0-62

BONNE VITESSE is topweight
Bit a 6yo mare absent 151 days
 
Go back to 2007
August to October
Handicaps
Non Amateur races
Any distance
Any class
Over 7 runners
Mares aged 6 or more
Absent over 57 days
Carrying 9st 4lbs and more
Have a 0-110 record
BONNE VITESSE fails this

CATRAKE FORCE is unsafe
Fillies aged 4 from am 6f races
Do not score well in similar races

MALINKA is a 3yo filly
Sold cheaply early in her career
Has been hurdling since them
Hammered last time looks unsafe
BOLLIN NEIL is an 8 year old
Just 3 poor runs in 19 months 
Should not be enough to win this
None of the outsiders appeal 

This looks a match

CAPTAIN POTTER

TARBAT NESS


27 days ago

CAPTAIN POTTER won at this track
TARBAT NESS finished in 2nd place

TARBAT NESS has a weight pull
And has come out and run again
So there is a case he reverses form

On the other hand

CAPTAIN POTTER is younger
He is less exposed as well
Won with a bit in hand last time

But decided to split these

On the Draw even in a small field

CAPTAIN POTTER is drawn 8 of 8
 
Go back to 1998
Catterick 2m races
With under 9 runners
Horses drawn 8
Have a 0-13 record
CAPTAIN POTTER fails this

Go back to 1998
Catterick 2m races
With under 10 runners
Horses with over 8 runs
Drawn in stalls 8 and 9
Have a 0-43 record in them
CAPTAIN POTTER fails this

So splitting them on the draw

Selection

TARBAT NESS 5/2-11/4

Win Bet


 


Newcastle 4.00

11/4 Ayr Poet, 3/1 Prince Achille
5/1 Urban Road, 8/1 Awtaad Prince
8/1 Deauville, 10/1 Harlem Nights
12/1 Berry Edge, 14/1 Glasses Up
16/1 It's A Love Thing

10f Handicap

Horses rated 0-70

Not really in my comfort zone

Interested in this statistic

Go back to 1997
10f Handicaps
Class 3 and lower
Any time of year
Both flat and sand

Horses aged 8 or more
Winning over 8f or shorter
Trying to follow up over 10f
Absent more than 11 days
Have a 0-36 record in them
AYR POET a 9yo fails this
He would be the first to do it
When as old as 8 or more

Some of these
Lack obvious fit profiles

DEAUVILLE is a filly
She's raced once in 14 months

IT'S A LOVE THING a 6yo
He has not raced in 32 days
Had just 2 runs in 7 months
Finished last in both of them

URBAN ROAD has 199 days off
If you look at his sires runners
Who have absences of 65  days
Those running over 10f + are 0-66
URBAN ROAD fails this sire angle

HARLAM NIGHTS is topweight
Comes here well beaten recently
Hard to see him as a reliable bet
He has had some excuses lately
Bad draws and getting hampered
But may need another run or two

BERRY EDGE has a chance

PRINCE ACHILLE could win
I can find a few winners like him

But an older horse off 32 days
Just 1 run in the last 74 days
There is a fitter option available

AWTAAD PRINCE 

Has had 4 runs since 131 days off
He looks to be running himself fit
He has to be on the staking plan

GLASSES UP a beatable 9yo
Has a fit profile maybe a chance

He has won over 14f
If we ignore that one off win
Where the leaders went too fast
And he might have fluked it
He has a 1-38 record over 12f+
Maybe that trip is a bit too far
If so you can excuse many runs
Unconvincing yes but in a race
With so many unfit profiles
He should not be the outsider

Selection

£3.00 Each Way GLASSES UP 22/1-25/1

£4.00 Win Bet AWTAAD PRINCE 11/2

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