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Favourite Bet
 
Naas 4.30

Edergole's Angel 7/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





 
Final Deliberations


7 Previews

3 Ayr
2 Naas
2 Pontefract



More quantity than quality
It should have been better
Feel the analysis is average
Not the best timed message
But it takes a step forward
As we approach a weekend
That promises to be exciting
And likely to be rain affected

Some shorter priced bets
Some split stake bets as well
Overall feels underwhelming

Going to mention one selection
That plan worked well yesterday
Waiting for a bet to present itself
Rather than just chase one down

 
Naas 4.30

EDGERGOLE'S ANGEL 7/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4





Preview Selections
 
Ayr 1.42
£7.00 Win Bet Bowen Island 9/4-11/4
£3.00 Win Bet Jorge Alvares 11/4-5/2

Naas 2.25
£6.00 Win Bet Lunigiana 6/4
£4.00 Place Bet Vanderbilt House 5/4

Ayr 3.12
Eternal Sunshine 11/10-1/1
Win Bet

Ayr 3.42 
Have Secret 9/2
Each Way
 
Naas 4.30
Edergole's Angel 7/2-4/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
 
Pontefract 4.40 
Times Edition 11/8-5/4
Win Bet

Pontefract 5.15
£6.00 Win Bet Hale End 11/2-6/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Theme Park  6/4






Yesterday's Summary

Short 5 race practice message
Which finished up P L W W L
We managed to get two winners
Included my choice of those five
Skellet winning with best profile
Just about did enough overall
To come out with a clear edge
 





PROFILES & PREVIEWS
  



Ayr 1.42

6/4 Catalyse, 5/2 Jorge Alvares, 11/4 Bowen Island
10/1 Mr Cool, 11/1 Eve's Boy, 20/1 Legend Forever
20/1 Magellan Cloud, 100/1 Jachin, 100/1 Mystical Sky.

2yo Novice Stakes 7f

CATALYSE sets the standard
Winning debut 11th in the Coventry

Not keen on his 93 day absence
Not keen on his draw in stall 1

2 year olds drawn 1
Don't score particularly well
In fields of 9 or more runners
This is only an 8 runner race

No 2yo has won drawn 1
In fields of 6 or more before
When absent over 48 days
Although only 20 have tried
 
Kevin Ryan runs two

BOWEN ISLAND
JORGE ALVARES

Ryan has won this race twice
Including a second string (2021)

I'd rather have both of these
Than the favourite with a break
BOWEN ISLAND of the pair
Looks the more certain to stay

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet BOWEN ISLAND 3/1-11/4

£3.00 Win Bet JORGE ALVARES 9/4-5/2






Naas 2.25

3/1 Lunigiana, 7/2 Miracle Beauty, 7/2 Misappropriation
7/1  Showspinner, 7/1 Never Not Lucky, 8/1 Vanderbilt House
16/1 Marys Not Contrary, 22/1 Bad Timing, 66/1 If Dora Could
100/1 Carla Ridge, 100/1 Escorpio, 100/1 Magna Beauty.
 
2yo Fillies maiden (6f)

Some unraced horses
Coming from big stables

MIRACLE BEAUTY
MISAPPROPRIATION

These take on horses
Who have had experience

LUNIGIANA has 4 runs

VANDERBILT HOUSE  2 runs

In the back of my mind
The 5 past winners of this
Had 2 2 3 3 2 career runs

That is a nudge to horses
Who have had experience

LUNGIANA has 4 runs
Figures are not impressive

VANDERBILT HOUSE can win
But back in trip on her 3rd race
Could also be here for a rating
Has to be the split stake option

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet LUNGIANA 6/4

£4.00 Place Bet VANDERBILT HOUSE 5/4







Ayr 3.12

7/4 Eternal Sunshine, 7/2 Sugar Hill Babe
9/2 Ecclesiastical, 5/1 Wee Fat Mac, 12/1 Call Me Ginger
12/1 Classy Clarets, Whisky McGonagall, 20/1 Sixcor
50/1 Chookie Dunedin.

5f Handicap

SUGAR HILL BABE rated 70
Has to concede topweight here
She is fit and running quite well
But has gone up 2lbs for losing
She's only won off a rating of 62

If you look at her handicap runs
When she was rated 63 or higher
She has a 0-16 record in them

ETERNAL SUNRISE another filly
Has the fitter profile of the pair
She is much less exposed as well
I would prefer her chances here

WEE FAT MAC is a lightweight
Rated 64 will he have the class
He has a 0-16 record in this grade
CALL ME GINGER is an 8 year old
Not for me drawn widest of all in 9

Ayr 5f handicaps
Run since 1997
With under 10 runners
Horses drawn 9 are 0-28
CALL ME GINGER fails this

CLASSY CLARETS a 3yo
May not have enough here

September and October
5f handicaps
Class 4-5-6 races
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 30 days
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-81 record in them
ECCLESIASTICAL fails this

ETERNAL SUNRISE

Fit and in form

Looks likely to win again

Selection

ETERNAL SUNRISE 11/10

Win Bet






Ayr 3.42

4/1 Aviemore, 9/2 Oviedo, 11/2 Bennetot
6/1 Have Secret, 7/1 Bystander, 8/1 Dark Moon Rising
11/1 Pol Roger, 12/1 Marhaba The Champ, 14/1 Barley
20/1 Arthur's Realm, Bust A Move, 33/1 Financer.

10f Handicap

Class 2 race

OVIEDO has topweight

Just 1 run in 97 days now

Not keen on the combination

If you go back to 2012
Horses aged 5 or older
Have a 0-56 record in this

The following fail this

MARHABA THE CHAMP
BENNETOT
ARTHURS REALM
BARLEY
DARK MOON RISING

BUST A MOVE is off too long

POL ROGER plenty to prove
Going up 2 grades in class
Going down 2f in distance

AVIEMORE has a chance

HAVE SECRET is a positive

But he has the worst draw

BYSTANDER is interesting
 
Now a Non runner

HAVE SECRET is chosen
Would have been a saver 
Poor draw but a fitness edge
Should beat more than not
Non runner helps his draw

Selection

HAVE SECRET 5/1

Each Way






Naas 4.30

3/1 Now, 9/2 Edergole's Angel, 6/1 Great Mover
8/1 Amazing Maisie, Ottoman, 10/1 Buck Barrow
12/1 Nakatomi, Native Honey, 16/1 Let It Linger
16/1 Mykonian Odyssey, Zuzzudio, 20/1 Roaming Eyes
50/1 Faire La Nouba, Senior Montecristo,Your Call.
  
8f Nursery

8 past renewals

Horses rated 0-75

Given the size of the field
I'd want quite a recent race
 
Every past winner of this
Ran within the last 4 weeks

Several outsiders fail this
So do the following horses
NATIVE HONEY 106 days off
MYKONIAN ODYSSEY 51 days

Past history shows
Horses with just 3 runs
Have a poor 1-45 record

Several outsiders fail this
So do the following horses 

NAKATOMI
AMAZING MAISIE
LET IT LINGER
NOW

BUCK BARROW has a chance
But there are classier horses
Who have better draws as well

EDGERGOLE'S ANGEL

Takes a drop in class today
If you look at her last race

She was the lowest rated
She had the widest draw

The last 3 winners of this race
And the 2018 winner as well
Were fillies with 4 runs like her
She would be my choice here

Selection

EDGERGOLE'S ANGEL 7/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Pontefract 4.40

2/1 Monsieur Fudge, 2/1 Times Edition, 9/4 With Style
11/2 Rickshaw, 100/1 Edward Cullen, 100/1 King Kev.

3yo Maiden (8f)

RICKSHAW is unraced

Taking on 3 experienced horses
One of the 3 should take this race

WITH STYLE is a filly
She's coming back just 13 days
After almost a year off the track
She could be on the bounce here

MONSIEUR FUDGE is a colt
He is coming back just  20 days
After more than a year off the track
Could also be on the bounce too

Either of the above
Could win through sheer ability

TIMES EDITION rated 77
Has a potential significant edge
In both experience and fitness
On this track it could be important

Has to be the percentage call here

Selection

TIMES EDITION 11/8-5/4

Win Bet






Pontefract 5.15

7/2 Lerwick, 4/1 Monte Linas, 4/1 Light Speed
5/1 Hale End, 7/1 Theme Park, 8/1 On The River
14/1 Urban Sprawl, 20/1 Garden Oasis, Petra Celera
33/1 Golden Sands, Visibility, 50/1 Sound Pressure.
 
8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-81

My angles tell me

The market leaders are unsafe
And too short of runs this year

They argue 4 horses suffer this

MONTE LINAS
LERWICK
GOLDEN SANDS
SOUND PRESSURE

GARDEN OASIS is the oldest horse
Has the worst draw in the race as well

LIGHT SPEED is resistible
There are better drawn horses
There are fitter horses as well

Pontefract 
8f handicaps
With under 16 runners
Any class of race
Any time of year
Since 1997

Horses with over 11 runs
Absent more than 8 days
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Return a 0-73 record in the
The following all fail this

LIGHT SPEED
ON THE RIVER
GARDEN OASIS

PETRA CELERA is rejected
As a 3yo filly up in distance

URBAN SPRAWL is a 4yo
Not really running well enough

 
THEME PARK is shortlisted

HALE END is shortlisted too
And has the slightly safer profile

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet HALE END 11/2-6/1

£4.00 Place Bet THEME PARK 6/4

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