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Favourite Bet
 
Thirsk 5.55  
Batal Dandy 6/1 
Each Way





Final Deliberations    
 
Boring message 
Boring schedule

Struggling for form early week 
Have no momentum right now 
So decided to back off today
 
2 Thirsk previews

Probably my worst track
Not expecting it to change
Not getting involved myself

Future Betting Angles

Covers 2 Saturday races


Apologies but it's clear
Just one of those days
I don't feel I can perform 
So side stepping the day






Preview Selections  

Thirsk 5.25
£3.75 Each Way Sassy Soprano 16/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Calafrio 3/1

Thirsk 5.55  
Batal Dandy 6/1 
Each Way





Yesterday's Summary

Whilst not a strong message
Results were not very good
The last preview was a winner
But not a very meaningful one
Thecompanysergeant second
Beaten by a chase debutant
None of the split stakes won
Biggest mistake Uncle Dick
I should have included him 
But overall fell flat on its face
  






PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
  
   

Thirsk 5.25

4/1 Calafrio, 9/2 Foreseeable Future, 9/2 Willow Baby
6/1 Ishe Worth Agamble, 7/1 Garifullina, 10/1 Modular Magic
10/1 Sassy Soprano, 12/1 Parr Fire,  12/1 Sounds Of Spring
14/1 Holbache, 50/1 Chattel Village.
 
6f Handicap

Spiteful looking race

MODULAR MAGIC topweight

Much to prove over this distance
Not convinced enough by his chance 

ISHE WORTH AGAMBLE
He's coming up from a 5f race
Never met an older horse before
The 3yo record isn't good enough

GARIFULLINA a 4yo filly
She comes up from a 5f race
Only 2 runs this calendar year
She is a tiny little thing as well
Just not drawn to her chances

PARR FIRE is a 4yo filly
Had a couple of runs this year
Chances are she needs more

SOUNDS OF SPRING a 7yo
Not for me with 52 days off
And coming from the lowest stall

FORESEEABLE FUTURE a 9yo
Comes up from a 5f handicap
Stall 2 is not a safe draw either
Small chance but do have doubts

WILLOW BABY is a 4yo filly
Cheap and modest but running ok
Just feel at least one will be better

HOLBACHE has a small chance
Seems to be running himself fit
I'd like more signs he is ready

SASSY SOPRANO a 3yo filly
Not the best age but last time 
She was impeded in her run
And is far better than she showed
At a big price want her on side

CALAFRIO is a 3 year old
  
Go back to 2003
June and July
Thirsk 6f handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 3
Have a modest 1-48 record
They won this race in 2022
But a 3yo who had just won
No doubt it is a weak age here

CALAFRIO offers positives
She does have recent runs 
Ran well in a Classified stakes
Creditable given a large field
And has enough momentum
To make her the saver bet


Selection

£3.75 Each Way SASSY SOPRANO 16/1
  
£2.50 Win Bet  CALAFRIO 3/1






Thirsk 5.55

11/4 Gunnerside, 7/2 Northern Prince
13/2 Batal Dandy 13/2 Hombre, 8/1 Tantalus
10/1 Arlington, 14/1 Parson's Meadow, Sydney Bay
16/1 Birdie Bowers, 16/1 Motawaazy
20/1 She'Sashambles.

6f Handicap

Division 2 of the earlier preview

Many of these look underraced

BIRDIE BOWERS is a 7yo
He's raced once in 200 days

SHE'SASHABLES is a 3yo filly
Comes here with many months of

SYDNEY BAY has 86 days off
The drop in trip could damage him

ARLINGTON flopped last time
His only race as far back as March

TANTALUS is a 4 year old
Not had a proper race since April
MOTAWAAZY has 6 weeks off
Hardly ideal for an 8 year old
PARSONS MEADOW a low scorer

NORTHERN PRINCE is a 3yo

Not the best age

Raced just 6 times before

Not guaranteed to want 6f

HOMBRE is a 4 year old
He has 67 days off the track
Not convinced with 10 runs

June and July
6f Handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 4
Under 12 career runs
Absent more than 56 days
Return a 0-54 record 
HOMBRE shares this profile

GUNNERSIDE has a chance
Not the best of draw in stall 2

BATTLE DANDY is a 3yo

Should not really go with a 3yo

But limited options elsewhere

He is fit and running quite well

Excuses last time at Carlisle
Where he had the worst draw


Selection

BATTLE DANDY 6/1

Each Way








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Wimbledon 2024


Mens Singles

11/8 Carlos Alcaraz 13/8 Jannik Sinner
6/1 Novak Djokovic 9/1 Alexander Zverev
14/1 Daniil Medvedev 25/1 Grigor Dimitrov
28/1 Hubert Hurkacz 28/1 Rafael Nadal
28/1 Taylor Fritz  33/1 Alex De Minaur
33/1 Matteo Berrettini
 
Wimbledon has started

CARLOS ALCARAZ
  
I have backed him at 11/4-3/1

Appreciate it is a difficult draw
Assuming it all goes to rankings
He has two massive challenges

Jannik Sinner in the semi final

Novak Djokovic in the final

Quite confident he beats both 
Djokovic feels like family to me
Nothing but admiration for him
But with a delayed preparation
I am not scared of him this time
Carlos Alcaraz carries my stakes 



 
Uefa Euro 2024

4/1 England 9/2 Spain 5/1 Germany
5/1 France 7/1 Netherlands 9/1 Portugal 
16/1 Switzerland 50/1 Turkey

Quarter Final Stage

My pre tournament bet

Staked to £10
 
£6.50 France at 5.40

£2.00 England at 4.90

£1.50 Germany at 6.60
 
Still very much in play
But I feel no love for it

No idea who will win
Not sure what to make of it
Seems no outstanding team
The luck factor is very high
In tight closely matched games

SPAIN have looked good

I would quite like them onside
But had my bet not changing it

No idea about England
Whether they can improve now
I fear the Swiss in our next game
No surprise who gets through





Ante Post Statistics

Saturday July 7th

Sandown 1.50
 
Coral Charge 

2/1 Live In The Dream 7/2 Twilight Calls 8/1 Desperate Hero
8/1 Makarova 9/1 Emaraaty Ana 10/1 Equality 12/1 Apollo One 
12/1 Purosangue 20/1 Equilateral 25/1 Unbreak My Heart 
33/1 So Majestic  50/1 Change Sings


Group race over 5f


Horses aged 3-4-5-6 are best

Horses aged 7 or older
Have a 0-45 record in this 
 
Past 3yo winners
Had the following runs
6 6 12 4 7 6 12 6 9 9 6 
 
Past 4yo winners
Had the following runs
7 14 9 15 8 10 11
 
The 4 fillies that have won this
All ran within the previous 23 days 
They had 7 6 7 12 career runs 
  
Past winners
Had the following runs

19 9 18 7 6 25 6 11 
10 6 7 12 7 10 9 6 10

Horses with 6-12 career starts
Have the superior record in this
Last years winner had more (19)

Horses from 5f handicaps
Have a winless 1-20 record

Best trial race
The Scurry Stakes 21 days ago

Horses aged 3
Coming from this race
Won this race in these years
2005 2011 2015 2017 2019 

 




Ante Post Statistics

Saturday July 7th

Sandown 2.25
 
Coral Challenge

5/1 Perotto 7/1 Holloway Boy 7/1 Two Tempting 
8/1 Classic 8/1 Dual Identity 9/1 Metal Merchant
9/1 Magic Memories 10/1 Cicero's Gift 12/1 Point Lynas 
14/1 Ouzo 14/1 Knight 14/1 Oliver Show 14/1 Silent Film
25/1 Farasi Lane 25/1 Miletus 25/1 Obelix 25/1 Mirsky
 
 
8f Handicap

20 past renewals
 
Weak areas statistically

High Draws

Horses rated 103 or more
Have a poor 1-46 record

Horses aged 8 or more
Have never won this (0-26)
  
Horses from Pattern races 
Have a 0-38 record in this

Horses from handicaps
In class 3 or lower are 0-48
 
Horses running within 7 weeks
Beaten 10 + lengths in that race
Are 0-57 since the 2005 race

Horses from 10f or more
Have a 0-26 record in this 

No horses aged 5 or more
Has won without 2 recent runs
 
17 of the 20 winners
Ran within the last 29 days
Horses with over 8 runs
Absent more than 29 days
Have a 0-42 record in this
 
Horses aged 3
Are the exception to this
Those running within 47 days
Have a 0-33 record in this
 
Horses from 7f races
Running this year are 1-45
  
Horses aged 4
Over 14 career starts
Have a 0-31 record
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