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Leopardstown 1.50

INTELLOTO 13/2-6/1

Each Way
 
 
  
  


Final Deliberations  
   
Back on the account today

Joseph O'Brien the trainer

Who would have thought that

Yet his horse was the only one
That I consider worth staking

That's not a sign of confidence
Nor a sign of desperation either
Don't normally trust this trainer
But I am happy to do that today
And in no doubt of his brilliance


Willie Mullins is mob handed
But Intellotto will be here to win
And the go to the Triumph hurdle

Rest of the message competitive
Done my best in some hard races
Will need plenty of staking luck
Hard to know quite what to expect
We may need to start today well





Preview Selections 
 
Wetherby 1.00
£9.00 Win Bet Strong Belle 7/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Lady Alex 8/1-9/1
 
Leopardstown 1.20  
Predators Gold 11/8 -6/4
Win Bet

Sandown 1.25
£4.00 Each Way Magical King 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Diplomatic Ash 12/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Classic Anthem 8/1
 
Leopardstown 1.50 
Intellotto 13/2-6/1 
Each Way

Musselburgh 2.15
£5.00 Win Bet Inis Oirr 6/1
£5.00 Place Bet Peaches And Cream 10/11 (1-2-3-4)

Sandown 3.10
£3.00 Each Way Good Look Charm 10/1
£2.00 Each Way Dubrovnik Harry 16/1-14/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Sandown 3.45
£6.00 Win Bet Bangers And Cash 8/1
£4.00 Place Bet Dom Of Mary 6/4

Leopardstown 4.10
£7.00 Win Bet Path D'oroux 4/1
£1.00 Win Bet The Big Chap 10/1-11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Henn See 8/1-7/1
£1.00 Win Bet  Pats Choice12/1-14/1







PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
  



Wetherby 1.00

7/4 Strong Belle, 5/2 St John's Road, 11/4 Yorkshire Lady
10/1 Snowrocco, 12/1 Lady Alex, 20/1 Reine Des Tartes
50/1 Mivvi.

Mares Novice Hurdle 2m
 
STRONG BELLE is a 6yo
Fell at the last at Catterick
Think she'd have won that

ST JOHN'S ROAD a 5yo
Has much less experience 
Ran well on debut could win
But was a 33/1 chance there
Not that expensive a horse

If it came down to positives
STRONG BELLE has more

YORKSHIRE LADY is unsafe

An interesting statistic

Novice Hurdles
Run since 2007
Any distance
Any type of novice
Open to any sex
Female horses
No hurdle runs
Coming from a flat race
That was under 9 furlongs
In the previous 6 months
Have a poor 1-173 record
That winner was a 5yo
YORKSHIRE LADY  is a 6yo

STRONG BELLE is the selection

Felt she was more likely to beat

Both of her biggest dangers

And any of the quieter threats

Having a strategic saver


Selection

£9.00 Win Bet STRONG BELLE 7/4

£1.00 Win Bet LADY ALEX 8/1-9/1








Leopardstown 1.20

7/4 Predators Gold, 3/1 Jetara, 7/2 Loughglynn
11/2 I Will Be Baie, 8/1 Stellar Story
14/1 Dancing City.

Novice Hurdle 2m 6f
 
Grade 1

6 runners

Willie Mullins runs 4

PREDATOR'S GOLD the favourite
I would assume is their number one
Not that you can every tell with them

His biggest market danger
Does have question marks

JETARA a mare taking on males
Has had 13 runs and 8 over hurdles
She has won in a Grade 3 race 
But one like her have done better

G0 back to 2007
Grade 1 Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
Open to both sexes

Female horses
More than 11 career runs
Absent over 15 days
Return a 0-60 record
JETARA has this profile

That stops me selecting her
Leaves me one sensible option

PREDATOR'S GOLD
No major profile concerns
Not unlike the 2019 winner
   
Selection

PREDATOR'S GOLD 11/8-6/4

Win Bet






  

Sandown 1.25

2/1 Jingko Blue, 3/1 Onethreefivenotout, 6/1 Classic Anthem
9/1 Magical King, 10/1 Zain Nights, 12/1 Alfie's Princess
12/1 Titan Discovery, 16/1 Diplomatic Ash, 25/1 Rock Danse
33/1 Mumford's Magic.

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

JINGKO BLUE is topweight

Sexy expensive horse

With a very big reputation

But 12 stone in a handicap
 
Go back to 2000

Sandown handicap hurdles
Run in class 4 and higher
Horses with 12st or more         
Have a 0-16 record in them
JINGKO BLUE fails this angle

All past winners of this race
Ran within the previous 51 days
JINGKO BLUE has 63 days off
May not be an easy task for him
MUMFORDS MAGIC fails too

Past renewals show

Horses aged 7 are 1-29
Horses aged 7 or more 1-40
The only winner had 3 runs

ALFIE'S PRINCESS a 7yo mare
Would not look the ideal type for this
ROCK DANSE also looks wrong

ONETHREEFIVENOT an 8yo
Older than all previous winners
Fancied from a top class stable
He is a long way from a negative
But not matchable to any winner

Go back to 2007
January and  February
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and more
Horses aged 8 or more
Coming from 2m hurdles
Have a 0-37 record in them
ONETHREEFIVENOT fails this

Go back to 1999
Novice Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 4f and more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 6 lifetime starts
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Have a 0-52 record in them
ONETHREEFIVENOT fails this
Might win not like him have yet

Horses from handicaps
Have a poor 2-63 record
Those with over 4 runs
Have a 0-57 record
TITAN DISCOVERY fails this

Horses with over 10 career runs
Have a 0-28 record in this race
ZAIN NIGHTS has had 20 runs

Horses from maiden hurdles
Beaten in those races are 0-10
MAGICAL KING fails this stat
But I'd take a lenient view here
It was a Cheltenham maiden race
And he has handicap experience
He gets onto the shortlist

DIPLOMATIC ASH does too
Bit of a wild card and is risky
But the market leaders in this
Do fail some long range angles

CLASSIC ANTHEM also gets on it

Selection

£4.00 Each Way MAGICAL KING 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet DIPLOMATIC ASH 12/1 

£1.00 Win Bet CLASSIC ANTHEM 7/1







Leopardstown 1.50
 
13/8 Storm Heart, 5/1 Majborough, 11/2 Kargese
13/2 Kala Conti, 7/1 Intellotto, 8/1 Highwind
10/1 Bunting, 25/1 Ethical Diamond, 40/1 Open To Question
66/1 Ose Partir, 100/1 Kimy.

Spring Juvenile Hurdle

4yo Hurdle

Grade 1

Triumph Hurdle trial

STORM HEART - Willie Mullins

In the Triumph Hurdle market
He is the 7/1 second favourite

He has 5 stablemates in this race
I presume he is the stable choice

Past winners
Had the following career runs
Races over any and every code
7 5 3 10 13 10 8 5 11 8 10 5 14 6   
Every past winner had 3 + runs
All bar one had 5 or more runs

MAJBOROUGH only has 1 run

BUNTING only has 2 career runs
Neither these are like any winner

MAJBOROUGH is still a threat
Said to have a huge reputation
I have to rate him as a danger

KARGESE is a filly
Some have won this race before
But not the Mullins number 1

KALA CONTI another filly
Can not be ruled out either
She comes from a Grade 2
Some winners did prep there
But they had 7 runs she has 4
Respected but not first choice
 
STORM HEART

As I type weak in the market
May or may not mean anything 

6 Previous winners of this

Came from a maiden hurdle

3 came from Punchestown
STORM HEART does this
Same race as the 3 horses
Winning in 2011 2015 2022
Mullins trained those in 2015-2022

3 came from Leopardstown
INTELLOTO prepped there
As did the 2018-2019 winners

Remember the 2019 winner ? 
Sir Eric from Joseph O'Brien
Banker in the 2019 Triumph
Sadly lost his life in that race
Joseph O'Brien really rated him
He may have found a horse
That could be high class as well

INTELLOTO smells classy
Back in his 3 year old career
Entry in the Epsom Derby
Has impressed many watchers
Been backed for the Triumph
Joseph moves in mysterious ways
Think this horse is worth the risk

Could go each way

Could have a win bet
With a saver on the favourite 
Difficult to know which is best
But because of Majborough
Decided to go each way here


Selection 

INTELLOTO 13/2-6/1

Each Way







Musselburgh 2.15

7/2 Peaches And Cream, 5/1 Inis Oirr, 6/1 Magna Sam
7/1 Universal Folly, 8/1 Landen Calling, Temptationinmilan
10/1 Castle Robin, 12/1 Christopher Wood, 12/1 Enrilo
16/1 Brandy McQueen, No Cruise Yet, 40/1 Via Dolorosa.

Edinburgh National 3m 7f
  
6 renewals

We have a new topweight

The highest rated horses

Look underraced anyway

No past winners

Carried 11st 8lbs or more
 
ENRILO has a lot of weight
Albeit with his claimer riding
He faces a 97 day  absence
Just the 1 run in 280 days now
He looks underaced as a 10yo

CASTLE ROBIN has 11st 9lbs
Just 1 run in the last 9 months
He also looks rather underraced 

CHRISTOPHER WOOD a 9yo
Has raced once in 267 days now
He looks too short of recent races 
His sire has no winners past 3m 4f

If we get the above beaten

We have a different handicap

PEACHES AND CREAM

Rated 132

The best backed horses

Faces a 0-127 rated field

His a little bit exposed 
Not over fences with 13 runs
But he does have 33 career runs

Past winners

All had 15-25 career runs

All had 3-15 chase races

Horses with over 25 career runs
Have a 0-24 record in this race

Horses with over 15 chase races
Have a 0-18 record in this race

PEACHES AND CREAM a 9yo
Not in the ideal range 33 races
But I would not worry too much
He stays and several others here
Have profiles you can criticise

Past winners
 
All had 3-15 chase races

NO CRUISE YET has 21 chases
VIA DOLOROSA has 40 chases
 
MAGNA SAM is a 10 year old
He won this handicap last season

And did it on his seasonal debut
As a 10 year old not convinced
With just 1 run in several months
He has the profile to win it again
With 15 chases he is not exposed
He is not out of the ideal range
But do not find him convincing
 
All 6 winners
Ran over 2m 7f or more last time
TEMPTATIONMILAN fails this

UNIVERSAL FOLLY fails too
He comes from a sire in Universal
Without any winners beyond 3m 1f

BRANDY MCQUEEN is a 7yo
He has had just the 3 chase runs
That's fine but he still looks raw
Beaten 65 lengths on his last run
In a Novice handicap as well
Not a negative but not my choice

LANDEN CALLING is an 8yo
Has no strong profile concerns
But there are stamina questions
   
INIR ORR only has 10 runs
Would not worry much about that
May turn out to be an advantage
He comes from a sire in Ocovango
Without any winners beyond 3m 1f
But not enough tried to be significant

Shortlisting 2

INIR ORR

PEACHES AND CREAM

Like the fact both their horses

Have Monsum as their grandsire
 
Ones a bit exposed
Ones a bit too unexposed

But never get too bogged down

In race statistics from 6 renewals

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet INIR ORR 6/1

£5.00 Place Bet PEACHES AND CREAM 10/11  (1-2-3-4)







Sandown 3.10

9/2 Ed Keeper, 13/2 Transmission,  8/1West Balboa
8/1 Saint Davy, Scamallach Liath, 10/1 Dubrovnik Harry
10/1 Operation Manna, 12/1 Ambitious Fellow, 16/1 Good Look Charm
16/1 Tanganyika, Wonderwall, 18/1 Equinus, 25/1 Gustavian
33/1 Barbados Buck's, Hermino AA

Heroes Handicap Hurdle

Horses rated 0-143

WEST BALBOA is topweight

Go back to 2005
Horses with 11st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-20 record since then 
Lightweights have done better

WEST BALBOA has 12 stone
Might be too tough for this mare

AMBITIOUS FELLOW an 8yo
Fails the weight angle 11st 13lbs
Combined with 91 days absence
 
Last 20 winners of this race
All ran within the last 63 days
The following are off longer

AMBITIOUS FELLOW 
DUBROVNIK HARRY
 
Horses under 8 years old
More than 12 hurdle races
Have a 0-24 record 
TANGANYIKA fails this
Not a match to any winners
Having had 14 hurdle races

Horses with over 12 hurdles
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-38 record in this 
BARBADOS BUCKS fails this

Horses aged 7 or more
Over 14 career starts
Absent more than 30 days 
Have a winless 0-47 record 
AMBITIOUS FELLOW fails
BARBADOS BUCKS does too

OPERATION MANNA an 8yo
Has 56 days off after a victory

Horses aged 8 or more
Over 5 career starts
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Absent more than 3 weeks
Have a 0-64 record
OPERATION MANNA fails this

Horses with over 19 races
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-38 record in this 
GUSTAVIAN fails this angle

Horses running within 33 days
Beaten 20 + lengths last time
Have a 0-29 record in this race
HERMINO AA has this profile

WONDERWALL is an 8yo
Brought down last time out
Leaves he short of being safe
EQUINUS doesn't offer enough

ED KEEPER is respected
But 11st 9lbs is a tough weight 
Horses with 10st 13lbs or more
Have a poor 2-80 record in this
 
Go back to 2006
Horses from Class 3 or lower
With more than 5 career starts
Have a worrying 0-62 record
SCAMALLACH LAITH fails this
He only just fails having 6 runs
But he comes from a class 4 race
The only horse that does this 
The last 9 winners of this race
All came from Class 2 or higher
 
SAINT DAVY is a 7yo
Just had 1 run this season
Thats fine as he is lightly raced
But horses aged 7 or more
With just 1 run that season
Carrying 10st 6lbs + are  0-11
Seems to have a lot of weight

Every past winner of this
Came from between 19f and 24f
Horses from handicaps
Over 3m 1f and more
Have a 0-32 record in this
TRANSMISSION fails this angle
Not so worried about this stat
He's only coming down a furlong

GOOD LOOK CHARM an 8yo
Comes from a good trial race
Helpful  light weight on her side
Added complication she's a mare


DUBROVNIK HARRY gets a pass
Had excuses on his last start
Only just fails an absence angle

Not got a strong view

Feels a bit too vicious to me

So a small stake conclusion

£3.00 Each Way GOOD LOOK CHARM 10/1

£2.00 Each Way DUBROVNIK HARRY 16/1-14/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






 
Sandown 3.45

3/1 Blackjack Magic, 4/1 Dom Of Mary, 6/1 Kestrel Valley
7/1 Certainly Red, 9/1 Bangers And Cash, 10/1 Fortescue
10/1 Full Back, Grozni, 12/1 Java Point, 20/1 Moroder.

3m Handicap Chase

BLACKJACK MAGIC is topweight

That could be a problem

Horses with 11st 10lbs +
Are 0-17 in this handicap

Go back to 2002 
Sandown 
Handicaps over 3m or more
Any time of the season
Horses with 11st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-24 record in them
BLACKJACK MAGIC fails this
 
Ideal profile
  
Under 10 years old
Under 17 career runs
At least 2 runs this season
Running within 85 days
Under 11st 10lbs
Not from a Novice
Coming from 2m 7f or more
Beaten under 26 lengths last time
Starting under 16/1 last time

DOM OR MARY is fine

BANGERS AND CASH is


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet BANGERS AND CASH 8/1

£4.00 Place Bet DOM OR MARY 6/4





Leopardstown 4.10

100/30 Path D'oroux, 5/1 Solness, 11/2 Madara
13/2 The Big Chap, The Folkes Tiara, 8/1 Final Orders
12/1 Henn See, Typical Thomas, 14/1 Pats Choice
22/1 Grey Diamond, Rebel Gold 66/1 The Little Yank.


Handicap Chase 2m 1f

12 Past renewals

FINAL ORDERS won this last year
He managed that off a rating of 140
Has a longer absence of 77 days
And now attempts to win this off 146
 
Highest rated winner in the past
Has won his race off a rating of 142
None have won off a higher rating
The following horses all try the same
  
SOLNESS
REBEL GOLD

I'd prefer a lighter raced horse

Past winners Chase runs
5 12 5 4 4 5 2 13 32 4 5 9 4 

12 of the last 13 winners
Had under 14 Chase runs

The following horses
Are not a match with more

PATS CHOICE has 14 chases

GREY DIAMOND has had 15

REBEL GOLD has 16 chase runs

THE LITTLE YANK has had 18 

TYPICAL THOMAS is a 7 year old
He has raced just once in 111 days
And would not be my first choice

HENN SEE is 7 years old
Beaten in a Novice Chase last time
No past winners came that way
Bit on the inexperienced side too
All recent winners had more runs

Since this race was upgraded
And it became a listed class race
Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-55 record in this 

THE FOLKES TIARA is an 8yo
Some won when it was a class 2-3

But horses aged 8 or more
Have a poor 3-110 record
Those with over 10 races
Have a poor 2-101 record
Tose with 10st 6lbs or more
Have a 0-75 record in this
The following all fail this

THE FOLKES TIARA
GREY DIAMOND 
FINAL ORDERS
REBEL GOLD
  
Shortlisting 3

MADARA
PATH D'OROUX
THE BIG CHAP

MADARA is a 5yo
Only 2 his age have tried to win
One did but with 9st 12lbs
MADARA has more weight
And is more exposed as well

MADARA is not quite a 5yo
He is 4 years and 11 months old
That does worry me a little bit
5yo winners are quite rare here

Go back to 2009
Any handicap chase run here
Over any distance or class
Run at any time of the season
Only 4 of them have won 
They all had under 7 chases
MADARA has now had 8 
Going to leave him off the staking

Shortlist

PATH D'OROUX

THE BIG CHAP

THE BIG CHAP is a 7yo
Comes from a good trial
But his stable are struggling
Like to save on him at 11/1
But there is not much room
If I want an each way bet

Not the safest strategy

But going with a win bet

With 3 saver bets instead

Chosen this portfolio

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet PATH D'OROUX 4/1

£1.00 Win Bet THE BIG CHAP 10/1-11/1

£1.00 Win Bet HENN SEE 8/1-7/1

£1.00 Win Bet  PATS CHOICE 12/1-14/1
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