4 Previews 
0 Account bet
   
No Account Bet 
 
   



Favourite Bet(s)

Lingfield 3.02
Kilbarry Hill 6/4
Win Bet 

Thurles 3.40
Ballycallan King 4/1-9/2
Each Way






Final Deliberations      
   


Opening message of a new week 

Cheltenham festival 7 days away 
Prepare for a mega club sandwich 

Cheltenham is the sandwich filler 
The 2 crusts on the outside of that
Sundays Leinster Grand National
Sunday weeks Midlands National 

F.B.A Column below

Today I may well be very rusty
 
4 Previews

Not sure how these will get on
But happy enough with them all
Feels better than I was expecting 
Nominating 2 as my favorites


Lingfield 3.02
Kilbarry Hill 6/4
Win Bet 

Thurles 3.40
Ballycallan King 4/1-9/2
Each Way



Have to send this message early

As have an appointment to attend






Preview Selections
 
Thurles 2.40
Brucejack 5/1
Each Way

Lingfield 3.02
Kilbarry Hill 6/4
Win Bet 

Thurles 3.40
Ballycallan King 4/1-9/2
Each Way

Thurles 5.10 
£7.00 Win Bet Shannon Royale 7/1 
£3.00 Win Bet  Linden Arden 9/4-5/2






Yesterday's Summary 
   
Last message was Sunday
This was a bit of a disaster
Final message in a long run
Clearly one day too much
Beat The Edge finished last
The bet each way 3 places
In a 4 horse race appealed
But where I screwed it up
The run he had 5 days ago
Came too quickly for him
Knew it was a possibility
And if that was to happen
Coming in last was in play
It's exactly what happened
I had failed to consider that
So blame me for that loser
Overall we just had a stinker
Bad conditions and tired
At the end of a longish run







30 Day Trial

Monitoring what would happen
If we have a daily account bet 
Simply a trial not advised bets 
 
Account Bet 23 
  
Thurles 3.40
Ballycallan King 4/1-9/2 
Each Way

Current profit  
£10 stakes -3.54
 
Results sequence

WWPLLLP LLPLW
WWWLPWLLWL








PROFILES & PREVIEWS  


Thurles 2.40

11/4 Folly Master, 6/1 Brucejack, 13/2 Duffys Getaway
7/1 Gaspard Du Seuil, 8/1 Bocelli's Voice, 9/1 Donacheady Gale
9/1 Dragon's Pass, 12/1 Duncarrig, 16/1 Lough Nigara
20/1 Sea Road Fill, 25/1 Walk In The Dark, 33/1 Fort Randall
33/1  Perfect Pupil

Beginners Chase 2m 5f

FOLLY MASTER is a 6 year old
Having his chasing debut today

That's not an issue statistically 
Several like him have won on debut
And he is a chasing type as well

My main worry is the track
Has no form on sharp tracks
Chase debut on a sharp track
Not much time to adjust to fences
Might win but it's a question mark

BRUCEJACK in contrast

He is a year older
Has chase experience
Has won on a sharp track 

When you factor in

DONACHEADY GALE a 10yo
Faces a massive 863 day lay off

DRAGONS PASS is a mare
Having her chase debut today

GASPARD DU SEUIL an 8yo
Has no chasing form under rules
And has just downgraded stables

Then the horse with chase form
Could be the sensible each way bet

Selection

BRUCEJACK 5/1

Each Way







Lingfield 3.02

10/11 Home Free, 13/8 Kilbarry Hill
50/1 Dance To Fame.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

3 runners

1 No Hoper

Should be a match

 
HOME FREE is a 6yo

4 career starts
2 hurdle starts
Dow from 19f to 16f
With a 12 day absence

March
Maiden Hurdles over 2m
Horses from 2m 3f or more
Having under 8 career runs
Running within 20 days
Return a 0-47 record
HOME FREE fails this angle

KILBARY HILL is similar
In that he also drops in trip
But he avoids a very recent run
And is therefore feels safer

Selection

KILBARY HILL 6/4

Win Bet 







Thurles 3.40

5/2 Touch Me Not, 7/2 Brave Fortune, 9/2 Doctor Glide
8/1 Ballycallan King, 10/1 Answering, Chosen Witness
14/1 Sharetheknowledge, 16/1 Hollow Rodger, Thebeautifulgame
20/1 Arthur's Victory, 33/1 Our Chezney, The Striker Dylan
66/1 Manhattan Brook, Mywayorthehighway, Storm Ryder
100/1 Kilbrin Rocco, 100/1 Matagorda.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Hard to like any of these

All have serious question marks

Came down to a simple conclusion

BALLYCALLAN KING

He has plenty of experience
Many of his dangers do not

He has a recent run 10 days ago
Racing Post Rating of 112 then
He will love the heavy ground
Shown he handles a sharp track

Is that enough to win this race ?

Not sure but I'd be disappointed 
If it was not enough to be placed
And if so depending on others
He should have every chance

Selection

BALLYCALLAN KING 4/1-9/2

Each Way







Thurles 5.10

9/4 Linden Arden, 4/1 Native Speaker
5/1 Shannon Royale, 6/1 Power Hour
8/1 Ishan 10/1 Almuhit, 10/1 West Is Awake, 
12/1 Insouciant Dallier, 12/1  Rowdy Romeo
12/1  Zoffanien, 25/1 Ballycairn.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

SHANNON ROYALE a 6yo

Carries topweight rated 132 

Faces a 0-123 class field

I like the class difference
Also liked him last time out
For similar reasons as well
Ran well finished in second

We opposed him 2 runs ago 
He was the least experienced
Yet he carried the most weight
May be capable of winning this

Some of his rivals are unsafe
NATIVE SPEAKER might be

Go back to 2011
Thurles
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 6f or more
Class 6 grade or higher
Any time of year
Horses with under 8 runs
Having under 4 hurdle rus
Return a 0-31 record in them
NATIVE SPEAKER fails this

BALLYCAIRN also fails this
INSOUCIANT DALLIER does

ZOFFANIEN is a 7 year old
He is coming up 7f in distance
Not easy for an exposed horse
Coming back just 9 days after 

ROWDY ROMEO is an 8yo
He has a nasty 83 day break
His trainers record since 2018
Show all of her hurdle runners 
Have a winless 0-109 since then

ISHAN can't be ruled out
But he does have his limitations
This is warmer than he is used to

ALMUHIT is only a 5 year old
Not many his age have won here
 
POWER HOUS is also risky
He's raced once in 68 days now
His stable have a 0-87 record
They have never had any winner
 
WEST IS AWAKE has 68 days off
Not obviously well handicapped
Might win but not scared of him

LINDEN ARDEN

Willie Mullins

Lightly raced a bit raw

But clearly looks a danger

SHANNON ROYALE the pick

Could go each way but with 12st
Going to split stake win /place

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SHANNON ROYALE 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet LINDEN ARDEN 9/4-5/2







FUTURE BETTING ANGLES      


   

Cheltenham

Starts 1 week today

Ground is currently soft

Highly likely to stay this way
 
No Constitution Hill this year

Champion Hurdle will suffer

But it is a very long week

Plan to cover most/all races

Discussing one race today 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle 

 


Tuesday 12th March 

Cheltenham 1.30
 
5/4 Ballyburn, 5/1 Tullyhill, 6/1 Mystical Power
13/2 Firefox, 8/1 Jeriko Du Reponet, 14/1 Slade Steel
20/1 Tellherthename, 22/1 Mistergif, 25/1 Asian Master
33/1 Brighterdaysahead, 33/1 King Of Kingsfield
33/1 Anotherway, 50/1 Ile Atlantique, 50/1 Billericay Dickie
50/1 Jango Baie, 50/1 Western Diego,  

Racing Post Ratings tell us

BALLYBURN has a big advantage

He has 10lbs and more in hand
 
He is just drifting in the market

So that will need to be monitored
With Gordon Elliot saying recently
One or two of his have setbacks


TULLYHILL

What worries me about him
He has raced once in January 
He has raced once in February
He only has a 23 day absence

Will this race come too soon ?

Past winners
Who ran in the last 29 days
Won in 2009 2010 2017  

Those like him aged 6
Won in 2009 and 2017

They had 15 and 8 career runs
TULLYHILL only has 5 races

They had 5 and 5 hurdle races
TULLYHILL only has 3 hurdles
 
He has far less experience 
The two horses managing this
Both raced once that calender year

Go right back to 1997
Horses in the Supreme
Who ran twice since Jan1st
Their last run within 29 days
Have a 0-88 record in this
TULLYHILL shares this profile

Bit concerned with this profile
He is the Mullins second string
Given the Racing Post Ratings
BALLYBURN looks stronger

FIREFOX is fancied around 7/1
He drops from 2m 4f to 2 miles
That has been quite a problem

Go right back to 1997

Horses down from 2m 4f
Have a 0-24 record in this

Horses down from 2m 3f  
Have a modest 1-19 record 
Shishkin did this in  2020
He had 3 previous hurdle runs
FIREFOX only has 2 hurdles

Past renewals, show
Horses from 2m 2f or more
Under 3 previous hurdle runs
Have a 0-21 record since 1997
FIREFOX shares this profile
He does not have a safe profile

Statistically speaking

BALLYBURN

Assuming be runs his race

Should be too good for Firefox
Should be too good for Tullyhill

JERIKO DU REPONET is a 5yo

His age can and do win this race
Only one has on very soft ground
No doubt 6 year olds are better

He has 3 career runs
He has 3 hurdle runs

Past winners aged 5

Had 2 9 4 5 9 5 6 21 13 career runs
Had 2 7 4 5 4 4 4 4 2 hurdle runs

JERIKO DU REPONET is raw

If he were to win this race
He's be the least experienced 5yo
To win in decades apart from 2022
Constitution Hill was lighter raced
Unlikely he is as good as that horse

Not a safe profile

His chance increases
Because Tullyhill and Firefox
Both have their own problem
And Consitution Hill's victory
Shows it has and can be done
Even if an exception to the rule

Worth bearing in mind

The last 30 Supreme winners
Had the following career runs

4 2 7 4 9 5 15 7 4 5 8 9 8 5 8 9 8 
6 21 9 7 7 26 17 13 29 18 10 8 7   

29 of the 30 winners

Had at least 4 career starts

JERIKO DU REPONET does not

MYSTICAL POWER does not
He comes from Willie Mullins

If we are to believe the market
MYSTICAL POWER is 3rd string
Not only is he on the raw side

He has raced only the once
Since as far back as July 2023
No horse has won this race
With such a raw profile as this

Conclusion

Serious worries about these

Tullyhill
Firefox
Mystical Power 

Jeriko Du Reponet has issues
Not strong enough to select
Possible saver bet but no more

BALLYHILL

He is the likely winner

Assuming he runs and is fine
 
If thats the case I will be sure
Not to lose if he wins the race

Right now assuming all is well

I don't see this as an each way race
 
But I will be making very sure

If he wins the race we can't lose

But his recent market drift

Needs monitoring

Could yet produce a rethink
 
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