7 Previews 
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Favourite Bet(s)

Sedgefield 2.07 
£7.50 Win Bet I'm Too Tired 9/2-4/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Halpha Soleil 100/30
   
Dundalk 3.37 
£6.50 Win Bet Celtic Revival 6/1-11/2 
£2.00 Win Bet John Alexander 4/1-9/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Autocrat7/1
 
Dundalk 7.15 
£9.00 Win Bet Squire Danagher 6/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Dawn Rider 8/1-9/1








 
Final Deliberations 
 
Wincanton passed an inspection
But that was only 90 minutes ago
No time to do that card any justice
So decided to wander elsewhere

7 Previews

3 Sedgefield
2 Naas
2 Dundalk


I do like the analysis today
Staking is the main difficulty 
Get that right we will do well
But a lot depends on staking 
Every one of the 7 previews
Could be staked differently



Sedgefield 1.07

£7.50 Win Bet GET A SUPERSTAR 11/4 

£2.50 Win Bet ONE MORE STROKE 3/1

Could have bet either each way
That is probably a safer selection
As the favourite has decent claims
But decided to go win and saver





Sedgefield 2.07

£7.50 Win Bet I'M TOO TIRED 9/2-4/1

£2.50 Win Bet HALPHA SOLEIL 100/30

Trappy handicap I do quite like
Could have staked this differently
Halpha Soleil as the £5 place bet
Around 1/1-10/11 that is tempting
I'm Too Tired left as the £5 win bet
That would be a far safer strategy
But don't like too many place bets
It can annoy and frustrate people



Dundalk 3.37

£6.50 Win Bet CELTIC REVIVAL 6/1-11/2

£2.00 Win Bet JOHN ALEXANDER 4/1-9/2

£1.50 Win Bet AUTOCRAT 7/1

Hardest preview on the day
I like the angles in this handicap
The staking is a little bit messy
Could have changed that easily
Gone each way and one saver
Hopeful but luck will be needed 



Dundalk 7.15 

£9.00 Win Bet SQUIRE DANAGHER 6/4
 
£1.00 Win Bet DAWN RIDER 8/1-9/1

Dangerous game betting this late
On the sand in the depths of winter

The bet I would have in this race
Squire Danagher each way 7/4-2/1
Not many would want to copy me
On paper this is a very good bet
But hours away a lot could change
And low and behold as I type that
Squire Danagher shortens to 6/4



Lots of interesting angles below

Good staking and luck required

Staked bet tomorrow

Will be covering the Lanzarote 


The Classic Chase at Warwick
Probably much more besides

Don't see a natural bet today

More a fun suck it and see day

So going to have a Saturday bet

In a stronger more secure market







Preview Selections
 
Sedgefield 1.07
£7.50 Win Bet Get A Superstar 11/4 
£2.50 Win Bet One More Stroke 3/1

Naas 1.12
£7.00 Win Bet Snake Oil  3/1-100/30 
£3.00 Place Bet Bythesametoken 5/2

Naas 1.42
£9.00 Win Bet Firefox 15/8
£1.00 Win Bet Croke Park 11/1

Sedgefield 2.07 
£7.50 Win Bet I'm Too Tired 9/2-4/1 
£2.50 Win Bet Halpha Soleil100/30
 
Sedgefield 2.37
Dr Sanderson 9/2
Each Way

Dundalk 3.37 
£6.50 Win Bet Celtic Revival 6/1-11/2 
£2.00 Win Bet John Alexander 4/1-9/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Autocrat7/1

Dundalk 7.15 
£9.00 Win Bet Squire Danagher 6/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Dawn Rider 8/1-9/1







Yesterday's Summary   
  
Thought we deserved far better
MINNIEMUM fell at the last hurdle
He was certain to have won that
We were robbed of a winner there
The last preview very frustrating
Broke level as a place saver won
He was going to be the selection
Discovered a soft ground angle 
That spooked me and I switched
Found that sire stat at last minute
And rushed into a pressure error
Maybe unkind to call it a mistake
His soft ground form was dodgy
Meant that cost us a good winner
Breaking level is all we managed
Did not like my Southwell previews
Mehigburn got beat at a big price
Hampered but made no difference
Maybe only cost us a place chance
Not worried weak bet at big price
Band Of Steel did have excuses
He played up badly before the start
Got lit up did too much out in front
The savers frustratingly 2nd + 3rd
BUSHYPARK was disappointing
Made the running over 3m and 6f
Was still in the lead 4 fences out
Then got headed dropping back
Good chance he just did too much
Possible explanation for his defeat
Not sure but it would make sense
Just felt we deserved much better






PROFILES & PREVIEWS 





Sedgefield 1.07

2/1 Golden De Coeur, 5/2 Get A Superstar
5/2 One More Stroke 7/1 Jake Stevens, 20/1 Final Edgar
20/1 No I Didn't, Tanking Along, 33/1 Captain Potter
200/1 Miss Raindrop.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

Should involve 4 horses

GOLDEN DE COEUR is an 8yo
Has the most hurdling experience
Has the best figures in the race
If we go on hurdling achievements
He is the obvious selection here

He is an 8 year old

Stepping up 4f in distance

This is interesting

Go back to 2007
Maiden hurdles 
Run over 2m 3f and more
Any time of the season

Horses aged 8 or more
Fewer than 8 career starts
Coming from a 2m hurdle
Have a 0-133 record in them
GOLDEN DE COEUR fails this

Not as good as it sounds
Only a handful were fancied
But it is certainly no advantage

When he was 3rd at Ffos Las
Tried to make all on heavy ground
Had a hard race fading into third
That could impact him a lot too

Many known unknowns

With 2 fancied from bumpers

The favourite might win this
He should do on his numbers
But there are enough concerns
To resist him at a short price 
Going with a split stake bet

Selection
 
£7.50 Win Bet GET A SUPERSTAR 11/4 

£2.50 Win Bet ONE MORE STROKE 3/1




 
Naas 1.12

11/4 Snake Oil, 9/2 Verdant Place, 5/1 Genois
8/1 Bythesametoken, Union Park, 9/1 Midnight It Is
10/1 Happy Dreams, Invictus Machin, 12/1 Pats Choice
14/1 Good Time Jonny, Itwasfate, 16/1 Walnut Beach.

Handicap Chase 2m

Complicated race

Looked at the past renewals

They all had 2 or more recent runs
GOOD TIME JOHNNY does not

Horses coming down in class
Have a 0-31 record in this race
Horses from pattern races 0-20
Horses from Class 2 or more 0-31
The following horses fail this angle

GENOIS
PATS CHOICE

VERDANT PLACE has 55 days off
He could be very well handicapped  

INVICTUS MACHIN a similar type

Both have 3 chase runs
Both from Beginners Chases
Both starting massive prices
Well beaten in those 3 chases

Can not rule that profile out
But past renewals show us
Horses with under 9 chases
Finishing 4th or worse last time
Have a 0-39 record in this race

Strange angle but these fail it

VERDANT PLACE
INVICTUS MACHIN
GOOD TIME JOHNNY
WALNUT BEACH
ITWASFATE
 
Shortlisting 3

UNION PARK one of them
But misses out on staking

Staggering the staking this way

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SNAKE OIL 3/1-100/30

£3.00 Place Bet BYTHESAMETOKEN 5/2






Naas 1.42

15/8 Firefox, 2/1 Ile Atlantique, 11/2 An Tobar
7/1 Croke Park, 8/1 Chapeau De Soleil, 14/1 Lecky Watson
16/1 Readin Tommy Wrong.

Lawlor's Of Naas

Novice hurdle 2m 4f

Grade 1 

7 runners
4 Willie Mullins
2 Gordon Elliot

ILE ATLATIQUE on paper
Looks the Mullins number 1
 
So it is no too difficult
To assume the other runners
From Willie Mullins are unsafe

ILE ATLATIQUE will go well

But statistically there are issues

Just 1 run this season my worry

Horses with 2-3 runs usually win

He's had just 1 hurdle run before

FIREFOX has 2 previous hurdles
And he has had 2 runs this season

Nobody knows the superior horse
Both around the same price 8/1
To win the Ballymore at Cheltenham
FIREFOX's profile feels a bit safer

Gordon Elliott runs two horses here
CROKE PARK looks a positive too
Many past winners came via Navan 

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet FIREFOX 15/8

£1.00 Win Bet CROKE PARK 9/1







Sedgefield 2.07

7/2 Halpha Soleil, 9/2 Coup De Gold, I'm Too Tired
11/2 Robin Goodfellow, 9/1 Copper Fox, 10/1 Better Be Definite
10/1 Jubilee Gold, 14/1 Big Bee Hive, Getaway With You
20/1 Follow Your Arrow, 25/1 Cailin Dearg, 50/1 Swift Reply.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f

Horses rated 0-100

Difficult but interesting

There is some deadwood on this
Happy to avoid the rank outsiders

JUBILEE GOLD another I'd skip
Pulling up over 2m last time out
That was his first run in 554 days

ROBIN GOODFELLOW is out
Horses sired by Dark Angel
Running over hurdles
Ground softer than good
Have won only 3 races so far
In races over 2m 4f and more
They have a 0-52 record so far
ROBIN GOODFELLOW fails this

BIG BEE HIVE looks beatable'
BETTER BE DEFINITE a 6yo
Has not achieved enough yet

I'M TOO TIRED is a 4 year old
The only one and the youngest
They do sometimes win these 
 
COPPER FOX is a 7 year old
Just raced once in 101 days
When he was beaten 14 lengths
Might pop up but hardly tempting

COUP DE GOLD might win
But just a 1-58 career record
Career best R.Post Rating 103
Not much to show for his toils
He was 2nd here last time out
I'M TOO TIRED finished in 3rd
HALPHA SOLEIL won the race
That race could be the answer

Something to bear in mind
If we can beat Jubilee Gold
Who has quite a weak profile
And beaten a couple of outsiders

HALPHA SOLEIL rated 100

Would only face a 0-89 class field
He may be able to outclass these

I'M TOO TIRED is also shortlisted

Both met each other last time out
More than possible at the weights
I'M TOO TIRED could reverse form

Win and place bet would appeal
Don't even mind which way round
That's what I'd do if a strong bet
Going to play the race this way
 
Selection

£7.50 Win Bet I'M TOO TIRED 9/2-4/1

£2.50 Win Bet HALPHA SOLEIL 100/30







Sedgefield 2.37

7/4 Heeztheboy, 4/1 Dr Sanderson, 5/1 Bebside Banter
8/1 Royle Steel, 9/1 Eurkash, 10/1 Robins Field
12/1 Living's Boy An Co, 16/1 Ashjan, 25/1 Mizuma.
 
Handicap Chase 2m 3f

HEEZTHEBOY is a 7yo

Won on his chasing debut
May be able to win again
But he is up in trip/weights
He's only had 5 career runs
Just the 1 run in 247 days
Going to look for an alternative

DR SANDERSON

Thrown in off 96

Only 16 months ago

He was rated as high as 127

Yes he is a 10 year old now

Has hard a run of regressive form

But he was gambled last time out
Finished 3rd in a better race than this

He would prefer drying ground 

But he is now rated only 96

If we get the rank outsider beaten

He only faces horses rated 86 and lower

There are dangers

But the strategy is this

Well handicapped class horse

Found a very soft race off topweight

Every chance he can win now

Selection

DR SANDERSON 9/2

Each Way




Dundalk 3.37

100/30 Old Peculier, 5/1 Hasten Slowly, 6/1 Storm Eric
7/1 Palace Rock, 8/1 Celtic Revival, 10/1 Rockview Consort
12/1 Pachmena, 14/1 Autocrat,  14/1 John Alexander
14/1 War Correspondent, 16/1 Tudor City, 20/1 Nibiru
33/1 Fascinating Shadow, 66/1 Indigo Desert.

12f handicap

Horses rated 0-79

NIBIRU is topweight
Hard to like as a 9 year old
With 125 days off the track
TUDOR CITY is a 12 year old
He has too long an absence

During January

Dundalk has 35 of these races

Horses down from 2 miles
Either from flat or national hunt
Have a 0-89 record in them
The following horses fail this

PALACE ROCK 
FASCINATING SHADOW
WAR CORRESPONDENT
ROCKVIEW CONSORT

PACHMENA is a 7 year old 
She's raced once in 86 days
Wanted a fitter profile than her

OLD PERCULIER is a 5yo
Won last time over 10 furlongs
Sire has no winners beyond that
Drifting badly unproven stamina

STORM ERIC fails sire stats

Horses sired by Estidhkaar
Running over 1m 3f or more
Have a 0-58 record so far
STORM ERIC fails this angle


HASTEN SLOWLY is  4yo filly
Has a chance up in distance
But she comes from a sire
Without any winners past 1m 2f

Shortlist

AUTOCRAT is a positive
First run for a new stable
Would be an known unknown

JOHN ALEXANDER is a positive
 
CELTIC REVIVAL also passes 

Selection 

£6.50 Win Bet CELTIC REVIVAL 6/1-11/2

£2.00 Win Bet JOHN ALEXANDER 4/1-9/2

£1.50 Win Bet AUTOCRAT 7/1







Dundalk 7.15

5/2 Squire Danagher, 3/1 Come On The Lads, 4/1 Dawn Rider
9/2 Miqdaad, 8/1 Scatchwah, 12/1 Belleplaine, The Mighty One
14/1 Sea Wave, 20/1 Dalmatic, Nation At War, Paper Doll
25/1 Little Empire, 66/1 Second Girl
100/1 Becausedellasaidso.

10f Maiden

SQUIRE DANAGHER

Sets the standard after 4 runs
Don't like anything against him


COME ON THE LADS
SCATCHWAH

Both the above horses
Are sired by Elzaam
Having had 1 career run
Both also have absences

No horse from this sire
Has won over 9f or more
With under 3 career runs
Absent over a month

Bit complicated but I'd argue
Neither are guaranteed to stay
When you factor in long breaks

MIQDAAD is resistible
Weak sire stats from Dark Angel
Having had just 2 career starts

DALMATIC is resistible
From a low scoring stable
Never had a winner under 6
Trainers record with horses
Who had under 8 career starts
Currently stands at 0-84

DAWN RIDER is a threat

From Joseph who is a menace

SQUIRE DANAGHER

First choice

If I was having a bet
It would be him each way 7/4
But will leave that up to you

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet SQUIRE DANAGHER 7/4
 
£1.00 Win Bet DAWN RIDER 8/1-9/1

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