3 Previews
0 Account Bet


No Account Bet

  



Final Deliberations


Start of a new run of messages 
 
Today looks just inconsequential
In historically a significant week
Future Betting Angles discusses

 
Not much we can do today

Was never going to be busy

Betfair has been down for hours

So decided not to develop today

And settle on just the 3 previews


Non committal races today








Preview Selections


Lingfield 1.00 
£5.00 Win Bet Simply Gorgeous 14/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Bluebella 5/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Pennsylvanie 7/2-4/1

Fairyhouse 1.07
Folly Beach 11/2-6/1 
Each Way
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Lingfield 2.45
High Game Royal 4/5 
Win Bet









Yesterday's Summary

Sunday was the latest message
Decided to have a Sunday bet
And once again a good decision
Act Of Authority won very easily
Came out as a 11/4 winning bet
But the message didn't fire well
Thought it was technically strong
But I was expecting a bit better
A couple of savers rescued us
But there were disappointments
We had 2 saver coming second
Really needed those to have won
The 2pm Naas felt wrong to me
Not many horses looked too busy
I think our horse was one of them
Overall I thought it was quite flat
Expected better but a silver lining
Another easy account bet winner





Profiles & Previews




Lingfield 1.00

11/8 No No Fizz, 3/1 Pennsylvanie
11/2 Bluebella 11/2 Sawpit Sienna
9/1 Simply Gorgeous, 16/1 Jackeline.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m

Horses rated 0-92

Changed my mind a few times

Looks like a 4 horse race

SIMPLE GEORGEOUS a 5yo
Does look limited rated just 76
But so do all of her rivals too
And watching her last race
Thought she ran particularly well

NO NO FIZZ is topweight

Initially had him down as saver

She fails this profile

Go back to 2007
August to December
Mares handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or shorter
Horses aged 6 or more
Under 8 career runs
Just 1 race that season
Return a 0-31 record
NO NO FIZZ fails this

She is not a negative
But no winners were like her
And for a mare with 6 runs
She has plenty of weight

BLUEBELLA may be the fittest
But not one to overestimate
Career Best R.Post hurdle rating 89
Not impressive after 16 hurdle runs

PENNSYLVANIE could win
But does she want a drop in trip ?

SAWPIT SIENNA has a chance
But a very exposed 9 year old
Just 1 run this year well beaten

Going to split stake

The horses with 2 + recent runs

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet SIMPLE GEORGEOUS 12/1

£3.00 Win Bet BLUEBELLA 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet PENNSYLVANIE 7/2-4/1


  




Fairyhouse 1.07

3/1 Goodie Girl, 13/2 Warmer Days Ahead
7/1 Lightkeeper, 8/1 Arabian King, Folly Beach
9/1 Fathom Two, 10/1 Cougar, Notkeepinyagoing
12/1 Whatsavailable, Workforadime, 16/1 Quite Incredible
16/1 Rodney Bay, 33/1 Mon Storm, 50/1 A Year Older.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f

Horses rated 0-116

GOODIE GIRL won last time
That was on her seasonal debut
But she is an older mare
Going up 5 furlongs in distance
On the back of 1 run in months
Win lose or draw an unsafe profile

COUGAR comes out badly too

Go back to 2009
Fairyhouse
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses under 6
More than 5 career runs
Absent over 15 days
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more
Beaten over 5 lengths last time
Return a 0-103 record
COUGAR has this profile

Fairyhouse handicaps
Over this trip in November
Suggest we should avoid
The most exposed horses

Those with over 14 hurdle runs
Have a 0-24 record in them all

Those with over 19 career runs
Have a 0-28 record in them all

This applies to the following 

Arabian King
Mon Storm 
Rodney Bay 
Quite Incredible
Whatsavailable 
Workforadime
Folly Beach

FOLLY BEACH has positives
She is fit and running quite well
She was very late to hurdling
Still very unexposed over hurdles
Having 32 runs hurts her profile
I would see her as likely placing
And she may do better than that 

WARMMING DAYS AHEAD
Hardly leaps off the page
Coming from a 2m 1f chase
Into a 2m 7f handicap hurdle

NOTKEEPINYAGOING is unsafe
As a 7yo mare with 120 days off

LIGHTKEEPER is topweight
Having his first handicap run
With 89 days off the track
Wanted a safer profile than that

FATHOM TWO

Interesting on some levels

Not least unexposed
From a high class stable

What undermines that 
He started 66/1 last time out
Having shown nothing for ages
Might win but believe it hints
He may well be overbet right now

FOLLY BEACH 

Whilst not prefect himself

Seems a far more reliable bet


Selection

FOLLY BEACH  6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Lingfield 2.45

4/5 High Game Royal, 5/2 Chloe's Court
4/1 Spike Jones, 11/2 Jatiluwih.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 7f
 
HIGH GAME ROYAL is short

But will probably take the race

Given his dangers have flaws

CHLOES COURT an 11yo mare
Faces 230 days off the track

Go back to 2007
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Open to both sexes
Mares aged 10 or more
Over 20 career races
Absent more than 99 days
Return a 0-113 record
CHLOES COURT fails this

JATILUWIH is an 10yo
He's rad a race this season
May need a couple more
Looks the yards number 2
Who should win with the other

Selection

HIGH GAME ROYAL 4/5

Win Bet








Future Betting Angles
 
  
The Flat has finished

So will cover more sand races

Starting with Lingfield tomorrow



Looks a fascinating week

Cheltenham

November meeting

Friday Saturday Sunday




Saturday

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Full statistics are below







Account Bets


Had a chat with Mick last night
 
Asked him how they are doing

Told me what I was expecting
They are having a great year

44 bets

£1 Level stakes profit of £46.70

And £48.30 best odds guaranteed

Roughly 100% profit on turnover

Been a fantastic year with those
But only one part of the service
Not sure why it's been outstanding

Maybe it is the message structure 
Starting slowly in the early week
Building up into one weekend bet

Personally I hate that methodology
But because I'm quite old now (58)
I struggle after a heavy weekend
Longer messages Friday to Sunday
Takes some time to peak again

But I have got something right 
Racing changes season by season
With so much experience doing this
Maybe I'm reading messages better

Sometimes if no bet on a Saturday

Having the account bet on Sunday 

Does make a lot of common sense

Sunday is a far easier day to do

The last 3 times
We had a Sunday bet not Saturday
We had 2 winners from the 3 bets
These horses won at 10/1 and 2/1

Mick also tells me

"Today's Best Bet"

The second tier of bets we give

Seem to have gone very quiet
And we need to have more now

Taken that point he makes

Experience also tells me

Starting to self congratulate

Back patting account results

Is the fastest way to a bad run

So will shut up about them now

Should be a very busy week

Right now

The Paddy Power Gold Cup

Statistics for that below

Does not look particularly interesting


Sunday could again be the day 

With 3 significant races


1) Cheltenham's Greatwood Hurdle


2) Navan's Troytown Chase


3) Fontwell's Southern National


Salivating over Sundays offerings

 Will cover them all mid week






Ante Post Statistics

Saturday 16th November

Cheltenham 2.20

Paddy Power Gold Cup

3/1 Ginny's Destiny, 6/1 Imagine, 7/1 Il Ridoto
9/1 Ga Law, 10/1 In Excelsis Deo, 12/1 Lets Go Champ
14/1 Protektorat, 14/1 Fugitif, 16/1 Weveallbeencaught
20/1 Hartur D'arc, 25/1 Janidil, 25/1 Jetoile
25/1 Straw Fan Jack, 33/1 Madara, 33/1 Editeur Du Gite
40/1 Kotmask, 40/1 Gemirande



17 Horses remain

The last 23 winners of this race
Had the following Chase races

6 6 9 5 15 7 18 14 13 5 8 7 6
3 9 5 6 5 12 12 10 5 10 4

Horses with 16 or more chases
Have a weak 1-68 record
 
Horses with over 20 career runs
Running off a mark of 148 or more
Have a 0-38 record in this race
  
October November December
Cheltenham Handicap Chases
Listed and Graded Class
Any Distance since 2008
With 10 or more runners

Horses absent over 108 days
Have an overall 6-192 record
Look at their age break down

Those aged 5 are 0-11
Those aged 6 are 0-31
Those aged 7 are 7-46
Those aged 8 are 0-59
Those aged 9 are 0-38
Those aged 10 +  0-22

This clearly shows
Only 7 year olds won first time out
Horses of other ages are 0-162

Horses aged 10 or more
Have not won this since 1975
All 43 were beaten since 1997

First time out horse aged 10 +
Struggle with 11st or more
In all handicaps here under 3m
 
Horses aged 9
Won 4 renewals since 2000
They had 6 18 14 15 chase runs

Horses aged 8
Seem to need recent races

November and December
Graded Handicap Chases
Any Distance
Since 2006
More than 6 runners
8 year olds
Absent more than 56 days
Have a poor 2-138 record
Those with 10st 9lbs +
Have a 0-93 record in them
 
The past winners aged 7
Who won this with a prep run
All finished 1st or 2nd last time

Horses aged 7
Winning this first time out
Had 6 5 13 8 6 3 6 12 chase runs

Horses aged 7
With over 23 career runs are 0-14
No 7yo won with 11st 9lbs +

Go back to 1997
Horses aged 6
Won 5 past renewals
With the following ratings
142 136 138 139 139

Horses aged 6
Rated 143 or higher
Have a 0-38 record
 
None aged 6 have won this race
With more than 11st 2lbs weight

Horses aged 6
Over 9 Chase runs
Have a 0-16 record in this

Horses aged 5
Have won once since 1998
He had just the 3 chase starts
 
Take out the 2012 winner
Who won a Supreme Novice
No horse aged 8 or younger
Won first time out rated 150 + 
 
Only 1 of the last 23 winners
Won this from a 2m race (2009)
That horse won a Graded race
Only 14 days before at Naas 
 
Horses that ran within 100 days
Dropping from 2m 5f or more
Have a 0-38 record since 1997

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Are 0-38 going back to 2008
  
Seasonal debutants
With over 9 career runs
Coming from Class 2 or lower
Have a 0-31 record in this

Horses rated 133 or less
Have a 0-36 record in this

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