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Final Deliberations  

  
 
6 Previews

Having a non committal day 

Monday was a silly mistake
Had intended to drop a day
But sent a message instead
And that clearly backfired 

Furious with myself for it
So clearing my head today
Not committing to anything
Not that it is easy anyway
Scrappy and typical Tuesday
Feel I've been wasteful lately
So need the next bet to win
 
6 previews

Day to just cherrypick

With the rest of the week to come








Preview Selections



Thurles 1.33
£6.00 Win Bet Apire Tower 5/2 
£4.00 Place Bet Feu Du Bresil 5/4

Lingfield 1.55
£5.00 Win Bet Ask Lileen 4/1
£5.00 Place Bet Moonlit Potter 4/5

Lingfield 3.00
£7.00 Win Bet Silver In Disguise  8/1
£3.00 Win Bet Movethechains 5/2

Ayr 3.20
£7.00 Win Bet President Scottie 5/2
£3.00 Win Bet Annaghbeg 2/1-9/4

Ayr 3.55
Teescomponentstrig 9/2 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4 

Thurles 4.15
£5.00 Win Bet Rising Dust 8/1-9/1 
£5.00 Place Bet Toor Moon 4/5 (1-2-3-4-5) 







Yesterday's Summary   

One preview and it failed
Speed Davis was second
Expected more but he lost
Did not do much wrong
Just met a better horse



30 Day Trial

Monitoring what would happen
If we have a daily account bet 
Simply a trial not advised bets 
 
Account Bet 6
    

Ayr 3.20

ANNAGHBEG 2/1

Each Way
  
£10 Stakes
 
Current profit 

£10 stakes = + £00.00
 
Results sequence WWP LL







PROFILES & PREVIEWS 




Thurles 1.33

7/4 Zanahiyr, 2/1 Aspire Tower, 5/1 Mighty Tom
8/1 Feu Du Bresil, Pinkerton, 20/1 Ballywilliam Boy
20/1  Figaroc, 50/1 Burru, 100/1 One Way Traffic.

2m Beginners Chase

Red hot for a Beginners

ZANAHIYR is favourite
Very promising chase debut
High class hurdles form
But is very exposed now 
Having had 25 career runs    
He is also a flat bred horse
Racing on heavy ground
 
There are 9 past renewals
 
8 of the 9 past winners
Were dropping in distance

Horses from 2 mile races
Have a weak 1-46 record 

PINKERTON fails this stat
Others have more positives

MIGHTY TOM also fails it
   
Past renewals show 

6 of the 9 winners
Came from a Beginners Chase 

Horses from Beginners Chases
Absent longer than 35 days
Have a smart 6-20 record

Those from 2m 1f or more
Have an improved 6-13 record
Two horses have this profile

ZANAHIYR
FEU DU BRESIL 

Those with under 20 runs
With under 4 chase runs
Have a 6-11 record in this

FEU DU BRESIL is a match 
He was well beaten last time
But many past winners were
He has drifted badly in market
As he did in the same race
When abandoned 4 days ago

ASPIRE TOWER is an 8yo
Last seen in a hurdle race
But that's twice been done
He looks a potential winner

Considered two each way
But had to split this pair

FEU DU BRESIL
ASPIRE TOWER

Decided to split stake this
 
Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ASPIRE TOWER 5/2

£4.00 Place Bet FEU DU BRESIL 5/4






Lingfield 1.55

13/8 Followango, 5/2 Ask Lileen, 4/1 Moonlit Potter
8/1 Bluella Bresil, 9/1 Shady Daisy, 25/1 Sans Choix
33/1 Ballygelly, 33/1 Chase Park, 33/1 Miss Hunky Dory
33/1 Saint Bibiana, 100/1 Miss Ghillie.
  
Mares Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

Not many can be shortlisted

SHADY DAISY missed out
Racing club owned 66/1 on debut
BLUELLA BRESIL missed out
May find significant improvement
But she needs to and looks risky

FOLLOWANGO is favourite

Sets the standard on her figures

Fails this statistic

January to February
Mares' Maiden Hurdle 
Under 4 career runs
Running within 19 days
Have a 0-56 record
FOLLOWANGO fails this

Not sure how far to trust this
As some did win during March
But going down a different route

ASK LILEEN is a 7yo
Lightly raced it worried me
But last years winner of this
Won with a pretty similar profile

Going to split stake this race

Selection
 
£5.00 Win Bet ASK LILEEN 4/1

£5.00 Place Bet MOONLIT POTTER 4/5








Lingfield 3.00

3/1 Movethechains, 9/2 Head And Heart, 7/1 Grove Road
7/1 Jubilee Express, 10/1 Valleres, 14/1 Silver In Disguise
16/1 Whydah Gally, 20/1 Max Dynamo, 33/1 Iceo Madrik.

Handicap Chase 3m 5f

Past renewals don't help much

This race is not unlike
The Surrey National here
Ran just 23 days ago
Same class and distance

MOVE THE CHAINS won that race

He won it from bottomweight

He is now topweight in this race

No idea how to rate him
Because his highest rated dangers
All look vulnerable statistically

ICEO MADRIK is a 6 year old
Has a lot of weight for his age

MAX DYNAMO is 14 years old
Can not stomach that prospect

VALLERES is a 9 year old
He's had 1 bad  run in 10 months

Get the above 3 horses beaten

MOVE THE CHAINS rated 124
Only then faces a 0-117 class race
So he could outclass this field

GROVE ROAD is an 8 year old
He has had just the 2 chase starts

Go back to 2008
Handicap Chases 
Run over 3m 5f ir more
Horses aged 8 or more
Over 4 career runs
Under 3 chase runs
Have a 0-33 record 
GROVE ROAD fails this

HEAD AND HEART is fancied
But a mare and has bottomweight
Sire has no winners past 3m 2f
Flat bred would look elsewhere

JUBILEE EXPRESS could win

Two obvious issues with him

Just 2 chase runs so far
Not too dismissive of that
But he comes from a sire
Without a winner beyond 3m 1f
Both issues could impact each other

Going to save on the favourite
As he looks quite well placed

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet SILVER IN DISGUISE  8/1

£3.00 Win Bet MOVE THE CHAINS 5/2







Ayr 3.20

 2/1 Annaghbeg, 5/2 Myretown, 5/2 President Scottie
9/1 Tommys Law, 16/1 Joie More, 25/1 Boolamore Classic
25/1 Plumbago, 33/1 Tommy Combats, 50/1 Adveram
50/1 Beat The Boum, 50/1 Lahardaun, 50/1 Midnight Fiddler
50/1 Sea Prince, 100/1 Cave Hill, Didnt Ask, Swedish Icon
100/1 Teddy Mac.
 
Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f
 
May be between 4 horses

Lucinda Russell trains two of these 
Her pair are also the least exposed 

TOMMY'S LAW

MYRETOWN

I would prefer the other two horses
Who have had hurdling experience

MYRETOWN is a 7yo
Just 1 hurdle race over 2m
Played with his profile

Go back to 2011
Maiden Hurdles 2m 4f +
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Just the 1 hurdle run
Just I run in the last year
Coming from 2m 2f or less
Retuend a 0-57 record
MYRETOWN fails this

TOMMY'S LAW a stablemate
Could win but proven nothing
Shortlisting these two horses

PRESIDENT SCOTTIE 11/4

ANNAGHBEG 2/1


ANNAGHBEG has done more
But would like to squeeze both in

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet PRESIDENT SCOTTIE 11/4

£3.00 Win Bet ANNAGHBEG 2/1-9/4






Ayr 3.55

7/2 Lady In The Park, 4/1 Teescomponentstrig
11/2 Cream Of The West, 15/2 Enemy At The Gate
8/1 Rob Roy Macgregor, 9/1 Shoeshine Boy, 10/1 Artic Mann
12/1 Niceandeasy, 14/1 Lewa House, 14/1 Paddy Elvis
20/1 Justicialism, 50/1 Toombridge
100/1 Manfrominverlochy.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Not many looked safe


LADY IN THE PARK a mare
Only has 2 past hurdle races
Happy to look at alternatives

Came down with the opinion

TEESCOMPONENTSTRIG

May be able to defy topweight
He is looks well treated off 110

Some of his higher rated rivals
Look vulnerable lacking positives
LADY IN THE PARK looks one
JUSTICIALISM 2nd in weights
Does not have enough positives
NICEANDEASU next in weights
He is am 11yo with an absence
Far more exposed than is ideal

ROB ROY MACREGOR rated 104
Could well be one of his dangers
But his profile is on the raw side

Dislike all of the above options

TEESCOMPONENTSTRIG rated 110

May only have a 0-102 to beat

CREAM OF THE WEST is a danger
ENEMY AT THE GATE could be too

I don't see 4 horses on paper
That should beat him if he performs

Selection

TEESCOMPONENTSTRIG 9/2

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Thurles 4.15

 7/2 Toor Moon, 5/1 Lily's Choice, 6/1 Another Nightmare
10/1 Rising Dust, 12/1 One And Only, Soldat Flamboyant
14/1 Brogue Man River, 14/1On The Banks, 14/1 Scarbrook
14/1 Seangoell, 16/1 Colline Fleurie, 20/1 Navy Waves
25/1 Oneforgonzo, 25/1 Toor Moment, 25/1 Winter Carnival
33/1 Silverfort Lady.


Handicap  Hurdle 2m 6f

Good history to this race

Some pretty big trends

But far from certain today
Those will be confirmed

As an example
Half the field are mares
Just they are 1-66 in this race

Mare look vulnerable
Horses aged 9 or more do

Lighter raced types usually win

Horses with over 10 career runs
Have a nasty 1-68 record in this
TOOR MOON the favourite
One of several who fail that stat

I'd take a more practical view

Best profile

Male Horses 
Aged 5-6-7
Under 11 career runs

SOLDAT FLAMBOYANT a 7yo
Came out well at quite a big price
The 77 day break is not an issue
Not in terms of the race history
But if you look at the trainer record
His runners absent over 53 days
Have a discouraging 1-70 record

SCARBROOK is interesting
First time out and well backed 
Unexposed and a stable upgrade
He could be a plot horse here
My angles are not convinced

January to April
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or more
Non Graded races
Horses aged 5
Under 16 career runs
Absent over 157 days
Have a 0-113 record 
SCARBROOK fails this
Hard to commit on this stat

RISING DUST came out well
 
Giving him a chance at 14/1

In a bet designed for some safety

Small stakes with this one

Selection
   
£5.00 Win Bet RISING DUST 8/1-9/1 

£5.00 Place Bet TOOR MOON 4/5 (1-2-3-4-5) 

 
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES      


30 days to Cheltenham 

41 days to the flat season


Cheltenham looms fast

Have not done much so far
Most of the non handicaps
Have  short priced favourites
Not in any particular hurry


There is a target race this week

Saturday  

Haydock 3.15

Grand National Trial Handicap Chase

Statistics for this race are below
Quite a likeable handicap chase

One of my favourite races all year
The Eider Chase is 11 days away
Already started work on this race
Will be covering this very shortly



Political Bet

Not many will have bothered
But anyone who had this bet

February 2nd
Rochdale by election
Workers Party of Britain 100/30-7/2
Win Bet

Will be aware of developments
The workers party are now 4/6
Big developments in Rochdale
Won't bore you with the details
But if you had a bet it looks good




Ante Post Statistics

Saturday February 17th

Haydock 3.15

6/1 Iron Bridge, 6/1 My Silver Lining, 8/1 Credo
8/1 Famous Bridge, 12/1 Iwilldoit, 12/1 Guetapan Collonges
14/1 Snipe, 14/1 Yeah Man, 14/1 Cloudy Glen, 16/1 Velvet Elvis
16/1 Highland Hunter, 16/1 Fontaine Collonges, 16/1 Empire Steel
20/1 Malina Girl, 20/1 Dunboyne, 20/1 Sam Brown, 20/1 Chambard
20/1 Major Dundee, 25/1 Fortescue, 25/1 Ashtown Lad, 25/1 Gevrey
25/1 Sail Away, 25/1 Where It All Began, 33/1 Twoshotsoftequila
33/1 Flower Of Scotland, 40/1 Mint Condition, 40/1 Full Back

Grand National Trial 

Handicap Chase 3m 4f
 
Official Ratings of Past winners

148 140 149 136 148 146 146 144 139 131 
129 138 149 143 143 144 121 126 135 136

No horse won this rated 150 +
All 25 that tried were beaten

Horses aged under 9
Rated 147 or higher are 0-14

Past winners
Had the following chase runs

13 3 20 24 7 17 8 11 11 14 5
11 13 11 14 5 5 11 7 6 9 3

20 of the last 22 winners
Had under 18 chase races
 
Very few had under 5 chases
None that were aged 8 did this

January February March
Handicap Chases over 3m 4f +
Class 2 or higher
Since 2010
Horses aged 11 or more
Absent more than 42 days
Had a 1-106 record in them
Those with over 12 career runs
Have a 0-100 record in them

The 2002 winner had 5 runs
Previous winners since 2006
Had at least 12 career starts

Only 4 past winners of this race
Had under 14 lifetime starts
They were aged 9 9 9 10 years old
No younger horse did this (0-29)

Horses with over 22 career starts
Absent more than 44 days
Have a 0-28 record in this race

Since 1998
Horses aged 7 are 2-37
Winning in 2004 and 2007
Since 2008
Horses aged 7 are 0-23
Both were lightly raced chasers
Both came from Class A races
Both had 10st 6lbs or less weight
 
Two past winners from Novices
Both of them won 14 days before

Past winners
Had the following runs this season
2 2 3 2 1 5 1 3 0 5 2 
2 3 4 2 5 3 1 4 0 3 3 6

Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 3 months do win
But they all had under 12 chases
Horses with 12 or more chase runs
Will probably need 2 + recent runs

Past winners
Had the following absences
53 27 42 42 28 14 77 49 34 301 41
53 42 54 44 51 14 44 91 49 14 35

Not many had recent races
Horses with over 7 chase runs
Coming from a Handicap Chase
Completed the course last time
But who also failed to win the race
Running within the last 41 days
Have a 0-71 record in this race
 
Horses from the Welsh National
Won 6 of the past renewals
They were all aged 8-9-10
Most had finished in the top 9 
They all had 15-23 career runs
They all had 5-13 chase runs
 
Go back to 2004
Horses under 9 years old
Under 20 lifetimes runs
Under 11 Chase runs
Absent more than 14 days 
Have a 0-57 record in this
 
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