7 Previews 
1 Account Bet  


Account Bet

Gold Cup
 
Cheltenham 3.30

£2.50 Each Way THE REAL WHACKER 50/1 

£5.00 Win Bet GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 1/1-11/10

1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)


You can have 1-2-3-4 places
But this will go down as 1-2-3
Not enough firms offer 1-2-3-4
But you should go for 4 places
Ideally on Betfair win and place







Final Deliberations 

  
Gold Cup Day


Final day of the festival
Following plenty more rain
Ground is heavy in places

Duchess asked me last night
If I'm having a good festival

Following yesterdays drama
Can't decide if we are or not

Some parts of the message
Have capitulated in disgrace

Other parts have done better 
The account bets clearly are
They only bet a 10/1 winner 
Time for our second acc bet
 
 
Cheltenham 3.30

£2.50 Each Way THE REAL WHACKER 50/1 (1-2-3-4)

£5.00 Win Bet GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 1/1-11/10



Cheltenham Gold Cup

I like the staking strategy here
We are saving on the favourite
If he wins again we break level

THE REAL WHACKER

Rank outsider at 50/1

Not sure if it can win or not
Plenty of doubts about him
But he is a 50/1 shot after all

There are negatives in the race
And I have a narrative for him
That makes him look backable

There are only 11 runners
Several of them 33/1 and more

You can get 1-2-3-4 places too
One or two will not stay the trip
Think he must be worth the risk



Last 3 account bets

Protektorat Won 10/1

Rose of Arcadia Won 4/1

Greenham Bay Won 2/1

So we easily deserve the right

To try and get a 50/1 winner

Rest of the message

No confidence or firm views
About the opening two races

The only other selection I like
 
Cheltenham 4.10 

ITS ON THE LINE 11/8 

Win Bet


Sorry I can't be more confident

But a heavy 4 days energy low

But after today we move on

Major Preview tomorrow

Midlands Grand National

And just 8 days away now

The 2024 Flat season starts






Preview Selections

Cheltenham 1.30
£5.00 Win Bet Kargese 11/2
£1.00 Win Bet Bunting 8/1 
£4.00 Place Bet Nurburgring 6/4 

Cheltenham 2.10  
Faivoir 10/1-12/1
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5 (6)

Cheltenham 2.50
£6.00 Win Bet Readin Tommy Wrong 9/4 
£4.00 Place Bet Dancing City 11/8 (1-2-3-4)

Cheltenham 3.30
£2.50 Each Way The Real Whacker 50/1 
£5.00 Win Bet Galopin Des Champs 1/1-11/10
 
Cheltenham 4.10 
Its On The Line 11/8 
Win Bet

Cheltenham 4.50 
£6.00 Win Bet Allegorie De Vassy 9/2 
£4.00 Win Bet Dinoblue 6/4
 
Cheltenham 5.30
£4.00 Each Way Better Days Ahead 8/1-9/1 
£2.00 Win Bet Quai De Bourbon 4/1-7/2 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5





Yesterday's Summary   

Gold Nugget found among the rubble  
There was more than enough rubbish
But one glorious account bet winner
PROTEKTORAT delivered in style
Outstanding bet so pleased with him
But it came at a heavy cost elsewhere
The generic stats suffered a disaster
The previews elsewhere a meltdown
Inothewayurthinkin winning as well
Was a dagger to my statistics heart
The message aside from Protektorat
Was little short of ritual humiliation
So don't know I feel about yesterday
Everyone will have different positions
Depending on how involved they got
If you offered me those same results
For today's card not sure I'd take it
Showed how glorious the festival is
But how savage it is when it bites us
But for all the bad parts yesterday
That was one hell of an account bet








Generic Statistics
 
21 Negatives

Current score

59 Negatives 
04 Won
55 Lost 
  
Cheltenham 2.10- Faivoir
Cheltenham 2.10- Mr Freedom
Cheltenham 2.10- So Scottish
Cheltenham 2.10- By Your Side
Cheltenham 2.10- Afadil
Cheltenham 2.10- Media Naranja
Cheltenham 2.10- Risk Belle
Cheltenham 2.10- Samui
Cheltenham 2.10- Absurde 
Cheltenham 2.10- L'eau Du Sud 
Cheltenham 5.30 - Jason The Militant
Cheltenham 5.30 - Angels Breath
Cheltenham 5.30 - No Ordinary Joe
Cheltenham 5.30 - Bingoo
Cheltenham 5.30 - Thanksforthehelp
Cheltenham 5.30 - Russian Ruler
Cheltenham 5.30 - Shared
Cheltenham 5.30 - Jay Jay Reilly
Cheltenham 5.30 - Ocastle Des Mottes
Cheltenham 5.30 - Yeats Star 
Cheltenham 5.30 - Stuzzikini






PROFILES & PREVIEWS




Cheltenham 1.30

3/1 Majborough, 5/1 Storm Heart, 6/1 Kargese
6/1 Nurburgring, 7/1 Salvator Mundi, 11/1 Salver
12/1 Bunting, 14/1 Highwind, 16/1 Ethical Diamond
16/1 Fratas, 20/1 Mighty Bandit
100/1 Ithaca's Arrow

Triumph Hurdle
 
Long time ante post favourite
Sir Gino pulled out yesterday 
Leaves quite an open renewal 
Plenty of deadwood in the race

One or two others are unsafe
 
The last 28 Triumph winners
Raced within the last 56 days

All 65 that did not were beaten
The following horses fail this

SALVATOR MUNDI off 338 days 

FRATAS absent 129 days 

NURBURGRING off 80 days
He is trained by Joseph O'Brien
So won't be surprised if he wins
But he does fail that 28yr angle
If you look at his sire Zoffany
You find his runners here are 0-22

SALVER I just find resistable
English horse rated below a few


Brilliant trial race

Spring Hurdle 41 days ago

Horses from this Grade 1  
Won the race in these years

2012 2013 2014 2016 
2018 2021 2022 2023

KARGESSE won that at 7/2

STORM HEART second 9/4

MAJBOROUGH third at 5/1

BUNTING was in 4th at 20/1

BUNTING is not out of it
Well thought of and raw last time

STORM HEART won there
But he had a strong profile
Had an experience advantage

MAJBOROUGH in contrast
Only had  the 1 previous run 
All past winners had at least 3

MAJBOROUGH will improve
Said to have a huge reputation
 
The dilemma with this horse
Only 2 career starts
Just 1 run in 11 months
Will he be too raw for this ?
That has to be major worry
Said to be a really big horse

Looked at past renewals
For horses so lightly raced

The horses that did do it
All had more French runs
And had more experience
No negative has star quality
But that is a nagging doubt

STORM HEART 
KARGESE

Both have each way claims
But far from easy to know
The Mullins pecking order

SALVATOR MUNDI  
Without a run in 332 days
Is also short in the betting
 
KARGESE is a filly
So were 2 of the last 4 winners
Last years winner was a filly
Who prepped in the same race

Looked at some videos
Tried to get a clear choice
Impossible to break this open
Decided to split stake this

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet KARGESE 11/2

£1.00 Win Bet BUNTING 8/1

£4.00 Place Bet NURBURGRING 6/4







Cheltenham 2.10 

5/1 King Of Kingsfield, 6/1 L'Eau Du Sud
8/1 Absurde, 10/1 Bialystok, 10/1 Pied Piper
12/1 Magical Zoe, So Scottish, Zenta, 14/1 Faivoir
14/1 Westport Cove, 16/1 Risk Belle, 20/1 Encanto Bruno
20/1 Hansard, 25/1 Aucunrisque, 25/1 Petit Tonnerre
33/1 Afadil, 40/1 Media Naranja, 40/1 Parramount
50/1 Mr Freedom 50/1 Samui 66/1 By Your Side.

County Hurdle

Handicap 2m 1f

PIED PIPER is the class horse
Rated 156 facing a 0-145 field
He was second in this last year
But he now has 111 days break

Horses rated 147 or more
Have a weak 1-50 record

PIED PIPER fails this stat
Don't like him off so long
 
10 horses 
Fail Generic statistics
Two of them are unclear

ABSURDE does fail one
But only just on a technicality
 
L'EAU DU SUD also fails one
But only just and I fear him too
One factor I don't like too much
He has ran just once in 117 days

KING OF KINGSFIELD 
Comes from a Grade 1 hurdle 

Past renewals show
Horses from Grade 1-2 hurdles
Having under 11 career starts
Have a winless 0-59 record so far
KING OF KINGSFIELD fails this

MAGICAL ZOE is a mare
Just 1 run in 126 days offputting
ZENTA is a 5 year old mare
Bit too sexy and raw to appeal
BIALYSTOK has a fair chance
But sire has no winners here (0-22)
 
Ran a few other angles 

But can not get underneath the race
 
FAIVOIR who fails a generic stat

Ran well 6 days ago at Sandown
 
His fitness could be a serious help 

He was the only horse I liked

Exposed and a speculative bet

But on this ground has to be him

Selection

FAIVOIR 10/1-12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5 (6)






   



Cheltenham 2.50

2/1 Readin Tommy Wrong, 5/1 Gidleigh Park
13/2 Dancing City, 8/1 Captain Teague, 9/1 Lecky Watson
10/1 High Class Hero, 11/1 Johnnywho, 12/1 Chigorin
20/1 The Jukebox Man, 25/1 Search For Glory
33/1 Stellar Story, Butcher Hollow, Spread Boss Ted
100/1 Dripsey Moon
 
Albert Bartlett

Grade 1 Novice hurdle 3m
 
Willie Mullins is well represented

READIN TOMMY WRONG one
He comes out ahead on numbers
Neither strong or negative profile
He is not unlike the 2022 winner 
DANCING CITY his stablemate
Comes out a close 2nd on figures
No objection to either of this pair

This years race is dominated 
By horses from Grade 1-2 races

HIGH CLASS HERO in contrast
Comes from small field novices
He would not be my first choice 
CHIGORIN out for similar reasons
JOHNNYWHO is rated just 136
There are many rated much higher

CAPTAIN TEAGUE is opposed
Grade 1 winner has obvious ability 
Even allowing from an English yard
But can't have him sired by Doyen

LECY WATSON lacks positives
Down the Mullins pecking order

Happy to avoid English novices
GIDLEIGH PARK the exception
Probably the best of the English
Profile mirrors Bobs Worth (2011)
But that horse scored far heavier

Shortlisting 2

READIN TOMMY WRONG 9/4

DANCING CITY 7/1-8/1

Staking this with safety

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet READIN TOMMY WRONG 9/4

£4.00 Place Bet DANCING CITY 11/8 (1-2-3-4)


  
 
 


Cheltenham 3.30

11/10 Galopin Des Champs, 4/1 Fastorslow
8/1 Gerri Colombe 11/1 L'Homme Presse
12/1 Corach Rambler 14/1 Bravemansgame
20/1 Gentlemansgame, 25/1 Jungle Boogie
25/1 Monkfish, 25/1 Nassalam
40/1 The Real Whacker.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

11 runners

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS

Defends his crown

Officially rated 9lbs clear

Last year we made him a saver

Might again be the best policy 


Go back to 1992
Horses aged 10 or more
Have a poor 1-114 record
The following all fail this

MONKFISH   
JUNGLE BOOGIE
CORACH RAMBLER

CORACH RAMBLER a 10yo
Also faces 111 days absence  

BRAVEMANSGAME a 9yo
Finished 2nd in last years race
Suspicion he doesn't quite stay 
Comes from a sire who so far
Has not bred a winner past 3m

If I go back to 1998
Horses aged 9 or more
More than 11 chase runs
Under 3 runs in 8 months
There is a 0-41 record
The following all fail this

MONKFISH 
JUNGLE BOOGIE

GENTLEMANSGAME an 8yo
Looks unprepared with 3 chases
NASSALAM the youngest horse
Just prefer too many others more

L'HOMME PRESSE a 9yo
Cheltenham festival winner

His 27 day absence
Could possibly be a problem 

Go back to 1997
Horses in the Gold Cup
Running within 32 days
Have a 0-74 record
Most of them not fancied
But several of them were
Kauto Star lost doing it (2nd)
Long Run failed at 7/4
Teeton Mill failed at 7/2
Not saying it can not be done
But will the race come too soon ? 
He also has to prove stamina
Open minded about his chance

Horses aged 8
Between 7 and 13 chase runs
Won 4 of the last 6 Gold Cups 

FASTORSLOW has this profile

GERRI COLOMBE also has it

FASTORSLOW could win
On his form and sire statistics
Feel there is a stamina question
No probable either way really
But just 1 run in 110 days now
Could add to that stamina issue

GERRI COLOMBE is similar
In that he has to prove stamina
I base that on this sire statistic

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running in Class 2 or higher
Running over 3m 2f or more
Have a 0-42 record so far
GERRI COLOMBE fails this


There are a few here

With unproven stamina

A lot of unsuitable older horses

We could get a shock result
 
THE REAL WHACKER

Won at last years festival

He won the RSA Chase
 
He had 6 career runs
He had 2 chase runs

Every past winner of that
Had at least 8 career starts
That's going back decades  
He also had a long absence
He was very raw and wrong

First time out this year
Started 13/2 in the Paddy Power
Made him a negative that day
He had topweight and 12 stone
No horse won with that weight
In over 37 years of that race
He only had 3 previous chases
No surprise at all he failed there

He then ran in the King George
No 7 year old has won that race
Without at least 8 chase races
He only had 4 chases that day
Taking on Shiskin and Allaho
Taking on Bravemansgame too

Last time in the Cotswold Chase
Did nothing wrong coming 2nd
When leading going off too fast
Jumped the second last in front
He tired having done too much
Dropped to 4th-5th ran on again 
Battled his way back to second



Not saying he will win

Just saying he has serious excuses

And there is a narrative that works

Yes I hate the fact it is a Gold Cup

And I am with a small English yard

But at the price he is so tempting

With flaws in so many of his rivals

Selection

£2.50 Each Way THE REAL WHACKER 50/1 (1-2-3-4)

£5.00 Win Bet GALOPIN DES CHAMPS 1/1-11/10


 
   




Cheltenham 4.10

15/8 Its On The Line, 3/1 Ferns Lock, 13/2 Premier Magic
7/1 Billaway, 12/1 Samcro, Sine Nomine, 22/1 Quintin's Man
25/1 Time Leader, 33/1 Shantou Flyer, 40/1 Ramillies
50/1 D'Jango, 100/1 From The Heart

Hunters' Chase

Smaller field than usual this year

That could undermine my angles

Normally I oppose the oldest
 
Horses aged 12 or more
Are only 1-101 since 1997

If that statistic holds again
The following are in trouble

SAMCRO
SHANTOU FLYER
BILLAWAY

RAMILLIES ran 6 days ago
Surely beaten too far there
None of the rank outsiders
Offer enough to consider
TIME LEADER rated too low

SINE NOMINE is an 8yo mare
Whilst mares get a 7lbs allowance
She is officially rated only 124 
She meets 3 horses all rated 142
I suspect one of these will win

IT'S ON THE LINE

FERNS LOCK

PREMIER MAGIC


PREMIER MAGIC won last year
But was a 66/1 chance doing that

IT'S ON THE LINE is a 7yo

FERNS LOCK is a 7yo

Horses aged 7 are fine
They are 4-45 in this race

FERNS LOCK is an improver
But has never raced here before
He also fails this interesting stat

Go back to 1998
Horses under 9 years old
Absent more than 35 days
Have a 0-52 record in this
FERNS LOCK has 54 days off
SINE NOMINE also fails this

IT'S ON THE LINE has form here

He was second in last years race
 
He was only a 6 year old last year

He was actually 5 years 10 months

He would be my choice
 
Selection
 
IT'S ON THE LINE 11/8

Win Bet







Cheltenham 4.50

11/10 Dinoblue, 7/2 Limerick Lace, 9/2 Allegorie De Vassy
10/1 Brides Hill, 16/1 Riviere D'etel, 20/1 Carole's Pass
25/1 Marsh Wren, 33/1 Harmonya Maker, 40/1 Instit
50/1 Pink Legend, 66/1 Kestrel Valley

Mares' Chase 2m 4f

Just 3 past renewals

Don't offer much help

This should be won

By a fancied 7 year old

LIMERICK LACE is one

DINOBLUE is highest rated
Should be fine over this trip

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY
Was runner up in this last year

Don't have a strong opinion

LIMERICK LACE

She has no Cheltenham form
Her biggest two dangers do

She is absent twice as long

She is only 3rd best on figures

So split staking Mullins pair

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ALLEGORIE DE VASSY 9/2

£4.00 Win Bet DINOBLUE 6/4







Cheltenham 5.30

3/1 Quai De Bourbon, 4/1 Waterford Whispers
7/1 No Ordinary Joe, 8/1 Answer To Kayf, 9/1 Better Days Ahead
10/1 Ocastle Des Mottes, 12/1 Sonigino, 14/1 What's Up Darling
16/1 Hollow Games, 16/1 Yeats Star, 20/1 Thanksforthehelp
25/1 Angels Breath, Jay Jay Reilly, 33/1 Magic Tricks, Stuzzikini
40/1 Bingoo, Mel Monroe, 40/1  Sequestered, 40/1 Teddy Blue
50/1 Fiveonefive, , 66/1 Russian Ruler, 66/1 Shared
100/1 Jason The Militant. 

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Conditional Jockeys

Toxic end to the meeting

Starting with the Generics

They suggest we oppose these

Jason The Militant
Angels Breath
No Ordinary Joe
Bingoo
Thanksforthehelp
Russian Ruler
Shared
Jay Jay Reilly
Ocastle Des Mottes
Yeats Star 
Stuzzikini

The shortest priced generics
NO ORDINARY JOE is one
Not going to overrule my stats
Not from Nicky Hendersons 
Not give he is an 8 year old

OCASTLE DE MOTTES a 5yo
Also fails a generic statistic too
With just 1 run since June 2023
Not really drawn to his chance

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 0-65 record in this
Opposing horses aged 8 +
This includes the following

ANSWER TO KAYF
NO ORDINARY JOE 
HOLLOW GAMES

Horses aged 7 or more
Coming  from handicaps
Have a 0-94 record in this
NO ORDINARY JOE fails this
As do multiple outsiders as well
 
Past winners
Had the following lifetime runs
6 7 4 7 10 9 7 7 8 4 7 17 6 11 9
Most winners had 6-11 runs
Horses who do not conform

TEDDY BLUE
MAGIC TRICKS
SONIGINO
STUZZIKINI

Horses  aged 7 or more 
Coming from 2m 2f or shorter
Have a 0-38 record in this race
WHAT'S UP DARLING fails 

All past winners had 11st 1lbs +
Horses carrying 11st or less
Had a 0-102 record in this race
Several outsiders fail this stat

Shortlisting 3

QUAI DE BOURBON
WATERFORD WHISPERS
BETTER DAYS AHEAD


No real preference

Comes from a Novice Handicap

Handicapper won last year

But since 2017
Horses from handicaps are 1-84
None came via a Novice handicap (0-7) 
WATERFORD WHISPERS fails this
 
Horses beaten in a handicap last time
Have a miserable 1-159 record so far
WATERFORD WHISPERS fails this

No idea if this angle will hold today

But going with the other two horses

Selection

£4.00 Each Way BETTER DAYS AHEAD 8/1-9/1

£2.00 Win Bet QUAI DE BOURBON 4/1-7/2

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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