2 Previews
0 Account Bet  




No Account Bet 
 


Favourite Bet

Kempton 6.30

Wadacre Grace 11/4 -3/1

Win Bet




  

Final Deliberations     


Redcar has just got abandoned

Message thrown under the bus

No inspection warnings given

Announced one at 7.30 am
Abandoned 15 minutes later

6 previews are now wasted 

So have not got much left

Didn't want to do Windsor

Cobbled together 2 races

This has to be the best one


Kempton 6.30

WADACRE GRACE 11/4-3/1

Win Bet





Aiming for a bet Wednesday

Tomorrow not ruled out either

But the weather is in charge

So cutting my losses today

Sending early to get more time

To find something tomorrow






Preview Selections


Windsor 2.50
£5.00 Win Bet Off The Bench 7/1
£5.00 Place Bet Clay Shoveler 1/1

Kempton 6.30
Wadacre Grace 11/4-3/1
Win Bet







Yesterday's Summary      

Deliberately kept it non committal
Did not see enough opportunities
We ended up with just 3 previews
Now Is The Hour the non runner
Ended up with one winner 2 losers
O'Faolains Glory each way at 6/1
Even part each was was enough 
To make sure we could not lose
Not surprised that was all we got
But at least we got all stakes back







PROFILES & PREVIEWS    
   


Windsor 2.50

11/10 King Of Light, 13/2 Majestic Heights, 7/1 Golden Paradise
15/2 Clay Shoveler, 10/1 Off The Bench, 12/1 Jimmy Henry
14/1 Cable Rate, 16/1 Chalena, 20/1 Big Bug, 33/1 Bownder.

2yo Novice

KING OF LIGHT is unraced

Looks the right favourite on paper

No surprise if she were to win

But that is a very speedy pedigree

Will she get home on her debut

When the ground is now soft

And when she faces 6 horses

Who have previous experience

I'd rather bet around him

With a split stake bet instead

GOLDEN PARADISE a filly
Unraced and rejected drawn 10
No unraced horse has won here
In fields of 10 or fewer runners
When drawn in the highest stall

Leads me to this hopeful bet


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet OFF THE BENCH 7/1

£5.00 Place Bet CLAY SHOVELER 1/1








Kempton 6.30

5/2 Ciara Pearl, 11/4 Alika Breeze, 4/1 Wadacre Grace
7/1 Moonlight Express, 15/2 Miss Idunn, 8/1 Unreal Connection
17/2 Nothing To Fear.

Fillies Handicap 8f

WADACRE GRACE a 5yo

Has an in form very fit profile

Taking that to be enough to win
Against lighter raced opponents
Who should end up better horses
But may not quite have matured

CIARA PEARL is one of those
Won last week after a long break
Could be on the bounce 6 days later
Drops 2f in trip to add a further test
Might win but an unsafe profile

MOONLIGHT EXPRESS a 3yo
Got herself handicapped quickly
Coming back 11 days a bit soon

ALIKA BREEZE first time out
Could be a threat not easy to tell
Applies to a few of the others

WADACRE GRACE 

His second place just 6 days ago
In a big field 0-70 class handicap
Shows he is fit and battle hardened
I would take that over raw promise

Selection

WADACRE GRACE 11/4-3/1
 
Win Bet








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES  
  

Target races

Saturday

Newbury Spring Cup

Scottish Grand National




Statistics below
In the Scottish National

Will flesh it out tomorrow
And cover the Spring Cup  



Breaks in Service

Wednesday April 24th 

Have no electricity this day
Power company to blame
Will have to take that off



June 3rd to June 10th

Just a quick reminder
I will be off on holiday 
No messages this week







Ante Post Statistics


Saturday April 20th



Ayr 3.35

10/1 Anglers Crag, 12/1 Git Maker, 14/1 Macdermott
14/1 Stay Away Fay, 14/1 Beauport, 16/1 Sail Away
16/1 My Silver Lining, 16/1 Sine Nomine, 20/1 Kitty's Light
20/1 Mr Vango, 20/1 Spanish Harlem, 20/1 Galvin
20/1 Whacker Clan, 20/1 We'llhavewan, 20/1 Inis Oirr
20/1 Autonomous Cloud, Mr Incredible, 25/1 Mahler Mission
25/1 Twoshotsoftequila, 25/1 Klarc Kent, 25/1 The Goffer
25/1 Iron Bridge, 25/1 Major Dundee, 25/1 Manofthepeople
33/1 Threeunderthrufive, 33/1 Chemical Energy, 33/1 Aime Desjy
33/1 Surrey Quest, 33/1 Ballygrifincottage, 33/1 Galia Des Liteaux
33/1 Egbert, 33/1 Your Own Story, 33/1 Flash De Touzaine, 
33/1 Le Milos, 33/1 Kinondo Kwetu, 33/1 Where It All Began
33/1 Broken Halo, 33/1 Enrilo, 33/1 Gold Cup Bailly, 33/1 Rapper
40/1 Famous Bridge, 40/1 Elvis Mail, 40/1 Ontheropes
40/1 Heltenham, 40/1 Loup De Maulde, 40/1 Manothepeople
40/1 The Gradual Slope, 50/1 Tommie Beau, 50/1 Flegmatik
50/1 James Du Berlais, 50/1 Guetapan Collonges, 50/1 Tullybeg,
50/1 Wayfinder, 50/1 Glengouly, 50/1 Adamantly Chosen
50/1 Flash Collonges, 50/1 Come On Teddy, 50/1 Magna Sam
50/1 Courtland, 50/1 Chambard, 50/1 Punitive, 50/1 The Flier Begley
66/1 Fortescue, 66/1 Flower Of Scotland, 66/1 Dorking Cock


Scottish Grand National

Recent winners
Number of Chase runs

21 7 5 16 5 13 7 22 10 6 18 4 10 
16 13 10 19 6 24 21 14 14 5 9 10
 
Recent winners
Number of runs that season

6 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 6 5 3 3 
5 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 5 3 5

All had at least 3 runs that year
But none had more than 7 races

Horses aged 6
Have a 0-19 record since 1997 
But 4 have finished in second
 
Horses aged 7
Have won 5 renewals since 1984
They were absent 56 44 38 84 31 days
Won from ratings of 140 146 137 139 137
They had 21 7 6 14 6 chase runs
None won with under 6 Chase runs
Go back as far as the 1950 renewal
No 7yo won with more than 11st 3bs
No 7yo has won rated 147 or more
None won when the ground was soft
 
Previous 8yo winners
Had the following lifetime runs
25 24 33 21 15 24 19 25 17
Had the following Chase runs
5 13 10 6 14 5 9 10

Horses aged 11 or more are 5-132
Need at least 5 runs that season
All ran within the previous 7 weeks
They all had 11st or less weight

26 of the last 28 winners
Ran within previous 57 days
Other two absent 84 -104 days

Horses who last time out
Ran in a Cheltenham Handicap
Had a 0-75 record since 1999

No Cheltenham festival winner
Followed up in this in 35 years
 
No horse with 11st 3lbs or more
Won this absent over 6 weeks

Most recent winners
Started life in Hurdles or Bumpers

Avoid horses from 2m 6f or shorter
Just 1 winner did he ran within a week

26 of the last 28 winners
Finished 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out

Horses who last time out
Fell or pulled up are 1-145

16 of the last 19 winners
Had 2 or 3 runs since Jan 1st
15 had 3 runs since Boxing Day

Horses rated 151 or more
Have a 0-27 record in this

21 of the last 25 winners
Came from Class 2 or 3 races

Horses from Grade 2 Chases are 0-36
Horses from Grade 1 Chases are 0-23
 
Horses from Non Handicap Chases
Have are 2-100 record in past renewals
Those from Class A Novices  0-54
 
Horses with over 12 hurdle runs
Have a 2-75 record in this since 1998
Those aged 10 or more were 0-37

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