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Favourite Bet(s)

Kempton 1.00 
Moe's Legacy 4/1-7/2 
Each Way 
 
Kempton 1.30
£8.00 Win Bet Colour Code 5/2
£2.00 Win Bet  Arctic Thunder 9/2-5/1
 
Kempton 2.00 
Egoiste 5/1
Each Way
 
Kempton 4.10
Unleash Hell 7/4-2/1
Win Bet







Final Deliberations       
 
Last message of this run
No message for tomorrow  
Feel I should take a break

Today could go two ways 
Maybe a message too far 
Does feel a little bit tired
But I like the angles today

Unusually Kempton on sand 
Has tempted me most of all

I don't have a favourite bet
I liked all of the 6 previews

Two of those are too short
Going to suggest the other 4

Think it's a day for small bets
All interesting in their own way






Preview Selections

Kempton 1.00 
Moe's Legacy 4/1-7/2 
Each Way 
 
Kempton 1.30
£8.00 Win Bet Colour Code 5/2-11/4
£2.00 Win Bet  Arctic Thunder 9/2-5/1

Warwick 1.35
Lightening Mahler 5/6-10/11
Win Bet 

Kempton 2.00 
Egoiste 5/1
Each Way

Kempton 3.00 
Cloud Cover 4/5
Win Bet

Kempton 4.10
Unleash Hell 7/4-2/1
Win Bet





Yesterday's Summary         
  
Started with a good winner
Purse Price winning at 7/4
Other results later showed
It was going to be needed 
Animal ran a nice 2nd place
Stakes just about returned
The other 2 selections lost
Toofareastiswest gambled
Did not jump well came 8th
Bold Endeavour the best bet
Finished a disappointing 6th
I blame my staking for that
Should have gone win/place
With Ramo as the place bet
Crossed my mind afterwards
Bold Endeavour's main target
Maybe Cheltenham's festival
Was he there just for a race ?
Maybe there for a better mark
Not sure we will never know
Wish I'd considered that earlier
As I felt I made a decent case
Chose wrong and staked wrong
Small loss on the day overall
But with the fallen best bet too




PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Kempton 1.00

11/4 Jungle Dance, 11/2 Bint Havana Gold
11/2  Fiddler's Elbow, Moe's Legacy, 8/1 Blow Me Away
8/1 Lord Danielson, Sapphira, 12/1 Lady Showcasing
20/1 Quiet Affair, 25/1 Tejesueno.

3yo Handicap 6f

Horses rated 0-58

Little class in this race

JUNGLE DANCE has 12 runs
He has to come from a 5f race
And is only rated as low as 48
Not done that well after 12 runs

Similar races show
Horses from 5f races
Over 7 career starts
Rated 51 or lower
Have a 0-23 record
JUNGLE DANCE shares this
LADY SHOWCASING does 

Ran a few profiles elsewhere
Hard to find something positive

BINT HAVANA GOLD has 3 runs
He drops down from 8f to 6f
 
3yo Handicaps (6f)
Any time of the year
Class 6 races
Horses down from 8f
Under 4 career starts
Running within 112 days
Have a weak 1-51 record

BINT HAVANA GOLD may win
But so far just 1 in 51 have

Feel one of these may win

MOES LEGACY
LORD DANIELSON
FIDDLERS ELBOW
BLOW ME AWAY

MOES LEGACY is shortlisted
Has more substance than most
 
BLOW ME AWAY 

He ran 2 days ago
Beaten by 7 lengths
Did he do enough ?

Possibly not
But for several runs now
He's been missing the break
Likely to be slowly away today
But watched him several times
He has enough ability to win
This race looks easier to win
Slightly smaller field will help
And he has the fittest profile

BLOW ME AWAY 

Now a non runner

Forced into a replacement

MOES LEGACY is that bet

Down in class today
In his last run 10 days ago
Every one of his opponents
Were rated at least 8lbs higher
None of those would be able
To get into this low a grade
 
Selection

MOES LEGACY 4/1-7/2

Each Way 






Kempton 1.30

2/1 Aljezur, 5/2 Colour Code
11/2 Arctic Thunder 7/1 King David
7/1 Post Rider, 12/1 Arnaz, 20/1 Kingwood Queen
20/1 Sold The Dream, 25/1 Ricardo Phillips
100/1 Hannahs Story.

7f Maiden

3 year olds

If we believe the market
There are 4 or 5 options
Some impossible to judge

KING DAVID an example
Unraced from Marci Botti

Only doing this maiden
Because of the favourite

ALJEZUR

He has had 3 runs
Sets the standard
Good enough to win
But 152 days break

What interests me
Trained by Luke Dace

Luke Dace runners

Absent over 103 days
Have a 2-225 record
Strike rate of 0.89%
Less than 1 in a 100 win

Since 2010
His runners absent that long
Have a 0-97 record in all races
 
His runners aged 2-3-4
Absent over 103 days
Have a career 0-78 record

Could knock these out all day
And the horse may still win it
But the evidence is quite clear
This trainer with absent horses
For whatever reason is too risky

Have to take an educated guess
With so many known unknowns
Could have a burglary bet here
Such as Colour Code each way
Makes sense if you like those
Going to split stake his dangers

 
Selection

£8.00 Win Bet COLOUR CODE 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet ARCTIC THUNDER 9/2-5/1






Warwick 1.35

4/5 Lightening Mahler, 11/8 Either Or
6/1 Victoria Milano, 25/1 Spring Gale
50/1 Elusiveness, Quite The Getaway
100/1 Luna Run, Spirit Of Jacob.

Mares Novice Hurdle 2m 3f

LIGHTENING MAHLER a 6yo
Won a hurdle on her debut
Beating inexperienced horses

Normally not in any hurry
To select a once raced hurdler
But his main market danger
Is a 6yo coming from a bumper
And she fails this angle

Go back to 2007
January and February
Mares Novice Hurdles
Any distance
Horses aged 5 or more
Coming from a bumper
Just 1 previous race
Running within 5 months
Have a 0-77 record in them
EITHER OR has this profile

Maybe one or two dangers
From some smaller stables 
Might win but hard to trust

VICTORIA MILANO is one

8 runner race

50/1 bar 3

He is around 6/1-7/1

Can we afford a saver

Is a win place feasible ?

Would be a stretch to save

In terms of the major two

My angles have a clear choice

Selection

LIGHTENING MAHLER 5/6-10/11

Win Bet 





Kempton 2.00

7/4 Charlatan, 4/1 Marchetti, 9/2 Elephant John
11/2 Egoiste, 10/1 No Diggity, 16/1 Desert Swirl
20/1 Gintini, He's Our Star, 25/1 Ricardo Ofworthing
25/1 Three Dons.

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-51
 
CHARLATAN 7/4

Warm favourite at 7/4

Every other runner 6/1 +

Do we stick or twist with him

He's had 4 runs
Ran only 11 days ago
Following a 237 day break
He could be on the bounce

His profile is not reassuring

8f handicaps
Class 6 races
Any time of the year
Both sand and turf
Horses aged 4
Under 5 career runs
Running within 14 days
Running over 8f last time
Return a 0-44 record 
CHARLATAN fails this profile

The alternatives options
Hardly leap off the page
Several look short of runs

There is far more comfort
Found in the higher weights
EGOISTE is the topweight
He is guaranteed to stay 8f
Even on the slower surface
Not all of these are proven
 
Small stakes

None of these are reliable

Selection

EGOISTE 5/1

Each Way







Kempton 3.00

 5/4 Cloud Cover, 2/1 Cue's Beau
7/2 Algheed, 8/1 Crystal Casque.

Fillies Handicap 7f

Horses rated 86 83 75 74

CRYSTAL CASQUE a 9yo
Concedes weight and age
Better off with a youngster
CUE'S BEAU is a filly
She has 254 days absence
Neither sire nor trainer appeal
ALGHEED is the bottomweight

Messy and tactical

But on the vast majority
Of strategies to sort this
CLOUD COVER is safer

Get the 9yo outsider beat
She is an 83 rated horse
Facing horses rated 75-74
She looks the best option

She has shortened though
She was 5/4 when typed up
Now she is closer to 4/5

Selection

CLOUD COVER 4/5

Win Bet






Kempton 4.10

6/4 Unleash Hell, 7/4 Amiwithani 5/2 Flowering,  

3yo Handicap 12f

Horses rated 0-60

Tiny field

Obviously any angles
Are going to be vulnerable

Opposing the favourite
Guessing the selection

Go back to 1998
Every race over 11f +
Any type of race
Any class of race
Any time of year 
Horses aged 3
Under 4 career starts
Coming from 7f or shorter
Have a nasty 1-153 record
AMIWITHANI has this profile

If we go back to 2002
Just look at handicaps
Run over 11f or more
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Coming from 7f or shorter
Under 5 career starts
Return a 0-78 record
AMIWITHANI fails this

He is going up over 6f

Opposing him because of it

Leaves us two options

FLOWERING 2/1

UNLEASH HELL 2/1

You could bet both
But going with a win bet

UNLEASH HELL got the nod

Selection

UNLEASH HELL 7/4-2/1

Win Bet
 
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