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Today's Best Bet

Downpatrick 5.20

PADDY ELVIS 7/2-4/1 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4






Final Deliberations
   
Intense schedule today 
Led to a heavy message

Decent quality in places
Panicky and weak in parts
  
Since the flat has started
The workload increases
That helps us with choice
But it can take a few weeks
To adjust to the extra races
I think that's why last week
We had those 3 poor days
Not quite there yet with this
But getting there day by day




Today

There will be losing races
Hoping as few as possible
But these are difficult races
Staking it was a nightmare

Not sure how we will do

Most races just small stakes  

Nominating just 2 of 8 races 


Perth 2.05

£8.00 Win Bet BREEZE OF WIND 11/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Bet TOM CODY 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet PRINCE DES FICHAUX 8/1

Highland National 
Staking dilemma in this race
Should we bet all 3 shortlisted
Or should we just go each way 
Breeze of Wind around 11/2
Looks promising each way
Not sure of the best strategy
But went with win and savers





Downpatrick 5.20

PADDY ELVIS 7/2-4/1 

Each Way 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4

This is the bet I liked most
Thought about staking this

But have not had the time
To look at enough runners
And 4/1 does feel a bit tight
And not every firm offers it
So I decided to go best bet
Rather than an account bet



Saturday tomorrow

Aiming for an account bet






Preview Selections


Sandown 1.15
£7.00 Win Tan Rapido 11/1-10/1
£1.50  Win Bet Sports Coach 9/2-4/1
£1.50  Win Bet Hedge Fund 9/2-4/1

Cork 1.40
£7.00 Win Bet Ata Rangi 6/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Bad Desire 9/4-5/2

Perth 2.05
£8.00 Win Bet Breeze Of Wind 11/2-5/1
£1.00 Win Bet Tom Cody 8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Prince Des Fichaux 8/1

Cork 4.00
£8.00 Win Bet Aztec Sun 7/2
£2.00 Win Bet Himalayan Heights 4/1-7/2

Cork 4.35
£8.00 Win Bet Psalm 7/2-100/30
£2.00 Win Bet Slaney Swagger 4/1
 
Sandown 4.45
Across Earth 16/1-14/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
 
Downpatrick 5.20
Paddy Elvis 7/2-4/1 
Each Way 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Downpatrick 6.20
£4.50 Each Way  Jumping Jet 9/1-8/1
£1.00 Win Bet Fakiera 14/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4


Yesterday's Summary  

Just a short comeback message 
Jeriko De Baune a non runner
Leaving us just the 4 main races
Samourai One lost in the opener
Won that money back in the next
Dare To Hope the saver bet won
Rambuso Creek managed a place
Just about put us back on track
Dambuster won as the saver bet
Shana Cloon lost in the finale
But ran really well a bit unlucky
Did too much of the donkey work
Probably left him short in the end
Not much in it but a little behind






PROFILES & PREVIEWS  
 
  

Sandown 1.15

9/2 Miaharris, 5/1 Hedge Fund, Sports Coach
11/2 Serried Ranks, 8/1 Equity Law, 9/1 Tan Rapido
10/1 Shagraan, 12/1 Rogue Enforcer 16/1 Dark Vintage.

5f Handicap

14 past renewals

Quite interesting

All 14 past winners
Were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6

Horses drawn 7 or more
Have a 0-35 record in this

Opposing the following

ROGUE ENFORCER drawn 10
EQUITY LAW drawn in stall 9

MIAHARRIS is drawn 8
Happy to oppose her as well
Based on this course statistic

Go back to 2011
Sandown 5f races
Any class of race
Any time of year
Fillies drawn 6 or higher
Absent more than 21 days
Have a 0-62 record in them
MIAHARRIS fails this angle

Opposing the high weights
Who have struggled in this
DARK VINTAGE is out

SERRIED RANKS rejected
Hard to trust his trainer
With a horse with an absence

Shortlisting 4

HEDGE FUND
SPORTS COACH
TAN RAPIDO
SHAGRAAN

Hard to narrow this down
Could easily be wrong here
SHAGRAAN was taken out
Most weight longest absence
And more exposed than some

TAN RAPIDO

Criticised last time out
When beaten at 2/9 on sand
I think he went off too quickly
Split staking this handicap

Selection

£7.00 Win TAN RAPIDO 11/1-10/1

£1.50 Win Bet SPORTS COACH 5/1-11/2

£1.50 Win Bet HEDGE FUND 5/1-11/2







Cork 1.40

13/8 Bad Desire, 9/2 Super Sox, 11/2 Sharinay
6/1 Old Sea, 7/1 Ata Rangi, 15/2 Help Me Rhonda
14/1 Eastern Capital, 16/1 Mastastroque, 22/1 Mapa
25/1 Tokenomics, 50/1 Highland Mist, 100/1 Tyder
150/1 Las Vegas Nevada, 150/1 Lough Lannagh
200/1 Ginormous, 250/1 Nobody, Quite Content
250/1 Walkswiththestars.

Maiden race 8f

BAD DESIRE sets the standard
He has not been out this season
Joseph O'Brien so no real clues

SUPER SOX is a filly
She has ran once over 7f
Promising type could win
Her breeding stats interest me
When in big fields like this

Horses sired by Showcasing
Running over a mile or more
Good to soft or softer
Fields of 9 or more
Those with under 3 runs
Have a 0-83 record so far

In fields of 10 or more
Those with under 4 runs
Have a 0-115 record in them
SUPER SOX shares this profile

Because of that

BAD DESIRE appeals more
But no idea how reliable he is

Plenty of unratable dangers

TOKENOMICS has raced once
Starting 50/1 does put me off him

ATA RANGI has a good profile
Could easily progress to take it 
 
Selection

£7.00 Win Bet ATA RANGI 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet BAD DESIRE 9/4-5/2







Perth 2.05

3/1 Duke Of Deception, 4/1 Haute Estime
5/1 Breeze Of Wind, 13/2 Conkwell Legend
7/1 Prince Des Fichaux, 8/1 Tom Cody, 10/1 Houston Texas
11/1 Bretney, 25/1 Return Fire

Highland National

Handicap Chase 3m 6f

13 Past renewals

The history of this shows
Horses with 11st 6lbs or more 
Have a poor 1-42 record in this

Maybe that's not too significant
Many fail this in a smaller field

HOUSTON TEXAS has 12st 2lbs
Maybe asking a lot from a sire
Without a winner beyond 3m 3f
 
PRINCE DES FICHAUX fails too
Has 11st 11lbs and a run 11 days ago
Horses running within 2 weeks
Have a 0-52 record in this race

BRETNEY fails running 9 days ago 
Pulling up recently is hardly ideal
 
Horses aged 7 in similar races
Absent  over 6 weeks are 0-21
HAUTE ESTIME fails this angle

Go back to 2002
Handicap Chases
Class 2 and lower grade
January to October
Run over 3m 3f and further
Horses aged 7
More than 5 chase runs
Absent more than 44 days
Return a 0-78 record in them
HAUTE ESTIME has this profile
His sire has no winners over this far

Take a very similar sample size

Go back to 1997
Handicap Chases
Class 2 and lower grade
January to October
Run over 3m 2f and further
Horses aged 7
More than 7 chase runs
Absent more than 20 days
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-36 record in them
HAUTE ESTIME fails this
DUKE OF DECEPTION does

RETURN FIRE looks vulnerable
Going up over 2 miles in distance

CONKWELL LEGEND is a 10yo
He has 12st weight with a claimer

Go back to 2010
Handicap Chases
Class 2 or lower
Run over 3m 4f and more
Any time of the season
Horses aged 10 or more
Under 12 previous chase runs
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-72 record in them all

PRINCE DES FICHAUX  
Gets added to the shortlist
The negative angle he fails
May not be as good as it looks

Shortlist 

PRINCE DES FICHAUX 
 
BREEZE OF WIND

TOM CODY

Could pick one each way
Could split stake all three
Will need luck with staking

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet BREEZE OF WIND 11/2-5/1

£1.00 Win Bet TOM CODY 8/1

£1.00 Win Bet PRINCE DES FICHAUX 8/1







Cork 4.00

4/5 Highbury, 5/1 Aztec Sun
8/1 Himalayan Heights, 12/1 Birdman
14/1 Alonzo, 16/1 Royal Entry
200/1 Casapulla.

Maiden race 12f

HIGHBURY is unraced

Aidan O'Brien 

Gallileo Colt

Out of an Invincible Spirit mare

Could win but not for me

Invincible Spirit's mares so far
Have no unraced horses winning
That were over 11f or further
None on good or slower ground
Have won over 10f or more (0-35)
Might win this is flimsy evidence
Especially in a small field like this
But I will take a split stake instead

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet AZTEC SUN 7/2

£2.00 Win Bet HIMALAYAN HEIGHTS 4/1-7/2






Cork 4.35

13/8 Spoken Truth, 15/8 Bacchanalian, 9/4 Psalm
14/1 Slaney Swagger, 25/1 Imarajan, 40/1 Superbolt
50/1 Maharajjah, Mollys Glory, 66/1 Louiescall
100/1 Winning Smut, 250/1 Golden Goose.

Maiden race 10f

BACCHANALIAN

Joseph O'Brien

Ran once 202 days ago

Described as a big horse

Wonder if he will tuned up today
Have my doubts about him winning
Factoring in this sire statistic

Horses sired by Siyouni
Running  over 10f or more
On Good to soft or slower
With under 5 career races
Return a 0-46 record so far
BACCHANALIAN fails this

SPOKEN TRUTH has 1 run
Nice profile the right type
But lost faith in this trainer
They are 0-18 so far in 2024
Hate to say it but just see them
As regressive and not reliable

SLANEY SWAGGER

Similar trainer comments apply
But he does have runs this year
And should be part of the staking
If I oppose the two market leaders
PSALM must be on the staking


Selection

£8.00 Win Bet PSALM 7/2-100/30

£2.00 Win Bet SLANEY SWAGGER 4/1







Sandown 4.45

9/2 Goodwood Odyssey, 5/1 Brioni, 6/1 Offer And Receive
8/1 Queen Of Atlantis, 10/1 Magnum Opus, 10/1 Prepschool
11/1 Endosser, 12/1 Across Earth, 12/1 Fihrayn
12/1 Monsieur Melee, Spaceport, 14/1 Brodie's Boy
25/1 Tipsy Tiger.

10f Handicap

3 year olds

Looks a bit vicious

Past renewals since 2005
Show every winner of this
Had under 5 career starts
Which sounds a bit radical 

But opposing the horses
With 5 or more career starts
Who have a 0-33 record
This includes the following
 
Queen Of Atlantis
Prepschool
Tipsy Tiger
Spaceport
Endosser
Brodie's Boy

No past winners
Carried 9st 7lbs or more

None were drawn 10 or higher

The following fail one or both

BRIONI
MAGNUM OPUS
MONSIEUR MELEE

OFFER AND RECEIVE
Rejected on a breeding statistic

Horses sired by Showcasing
Running on turf over 10f +
Class 4 races and higher
Absent more than 36 days
Have a 0-24 record so far
OFFER AND RECEIVE fails this

GOODWOOD ODYSSEY 
Looks sexy and could easily win
But he's only raced twice before
Carrying 9st 8lbs could be an issue
No winners had 9st 7lbs or more
 
FIHRAYN has a chance
Would he be shorter if ready ?
I think so but could be wrong
He nearly made the staking


Wide open

High risk strategy

Going with a Marco Botti horse
That may or may not be his 1st string

Selection

ACROSS EARTH 16/1-14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Downpatrick 5.20

15/8 Benjis Benefit, 5/1 Paddy Elvis, 6/1 Be My Hero
13/2 Flashthelights, Kiss My Lucky Egg, 8/1 Crowsatedappletart
20/1 Simply Shabra, 20/1 Tom Red, 33/1 Glenriver, Kilbrin Rocco
33/1 The Riastrad, 40/1 Jimli's Cave, 40/1 Johnny Cakes
40/1  Walkonthebriteside, 50/1 Evans Secret.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f

Big field

BENJIS BENEFIT is short at 6/4
He has a plenty to overcome today

Going up 3f in distance
Has to carry 11st 10lbs weight
Not raced in 92 days
Just 1 run in 154 days
Any combination of those issues
Present him with a weak profile

Go back to 2007
January to July
Handicap Hurdles
Run over 2m 3f and more
Any class of race 

Horses aged 6 or more
Under 13 career races
Coming from 2 mile races
Just 1 run in 4 months
Absent more than 7 weeks
Carrying 11st 6lbs or more
Return a 0-80 record
In the first 7 months of the year
BENJIS BENEFIT has this profile



BE MY HERO a 9yo
Also steps up in distance
Exposed and 105 days break
He looks underraced in this



PADDY ELVIS

Recent run 12 days ago

He comes from a flat sire

Whose hurdle runners

Racing over 2m 5f or more
Have yet to win any race (0-17)

His 3 races in 2024
Were all quite excusable

3 miles on soft

2m 4f on soft ground
On a very testing track

2m 6f on yielding
On the same testing track

Failed breeding statistics
In every one of those races

Dropping back to 2m 3f
Looks a very sensible move

Time prevents a detailed look
At every one of his opponents
But I fancy him at this distance

Selection

PADDY ELVIS 7/2-4/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Downpatrick 6.20

4/1 Ask Anything, 5/1 Frontal Assault, 6/1 Jumping Jet
7/1 Tullybeg, 8/1 Peaches And Cream, 16/1 Dragon Rock
20/1 Dorking Cock, Max Flamingo, Now Where Or When
20/1 Regina Dracones, Streets Of Doyen, The Flier Begley
20/1 Young Dev, 25/1 Bodhisattva, 33/1 Fakiera.
 
Ulster National

Handicap Chase 3m 5f

14 renewals

ASK ANYTHING is a 6yo
The youngest horse in the race

The past 6yo winners of this 
Had at least 16 career runs

ASK ANYTHING only has 9
He also has just 4 chase runs

No past winner
Had under 5 chase runs (0-22)
Throw in just 1 run in 94 days
Do not see an enticing profile
  
This looks a lightweights race

Official Ratings of past winners

128 121 112 127 121 120 107 
125 109 107 125 92 116 107

Horses rated 129 or more
Have a 0-30 record in this

Horses with 11st 4lbs or more
Have a poor 1-39 record in this
This questions the following

TULLYBEG with topweight
Facing a lay off of 159 days

MAX FLAMINGO rated 139
Looks exposed and underraced

FRONTAL ASSAULT a 9yo
Ran one of better races last time
But 11st 8lbs and rated 136
No past winner was that burdened
He is also quite exposed as well
Having had 18 chase runs to date

Past winners
Had the following Chase starts

13 12 6 19 9 11 6 
13 8 5 7 8 5 7 12 6 9

Horses with over 13 chase runs
Have a weak 1-55 record in this

The following horses fail this

FRONTAL ASSAULT
YOUNG DEV
DORKING COCK
PEACHES AND CREAM
FAKIERA
REGINA DRACONES
MAX FLAMINGO 
NOW WHERE OR WHEN

BODHISATTVA is a 7yo
Just 1 run in the last 212 days
Do not see him as fit enough
 
The 14 past renewals show

Horses from 3m 1f or more
Have a 0-35 record in the race
Most winners stepped up 4f +
The following horses fail this

FRONTAL ASSAULT
PEACHES AND CREAM

STREETS OF DOYEN is out
Weak sire and a long absence

THE FLIER BEGLEY a 9yo
Has 105 days off the track

One horse passes my angles

JUMPING JET an 8yo mare

Mares won this 2014 2021 2023
All like her going up in distance
This is her first run beyond 3m
But plenty of stamina in pedigree

He looks weak in the market

There are understandable reasons

A 7lbs claimer could be one 

He gets onto the staking plan

FAKIERA does as well

Can overlook 15 chase runs
More than most past winners
But only by a couple of runs

He's had bad recent profiles
But ran a lot better last time

Pulled up in this last year
But had pulled up at Cheltenham
In a Grade 2 just 19 days earlier
Going to make him a saver bet

Could throw in the favourite

May have underestimated him

But locked into the selection

Selection

£4.50 Each Way JUMPING JET 9/1-8/1

£1.00 Win Bet FAKIERA 14/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4

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