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Final Deliberations


Welsh Grand National day

That is the main target 

Smaller field than usual

The ground is drying out

Not a traditional renewal




Chepstow 2.50
        
£7.00 Win Bet ATLANTA BRAVE 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet IRON BRIDGE 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet VAL DANCER 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet EVIES VLADIMIR 10/1-11/1


Decided on a win bet and 3 savers 
Not sure if that is a mistake or not

Many came to the same conclusion
Both selection and savers are popular
Like the bet but not account strength
 
Hope to find a Saturday account bet
If brutally honest about this message
Feel it has the potential to turn sour

Lacks any significant breakthrough 
Half the previews are in toxic races
If you offered me a break level day
Would quickly snatch your hand off 
Fear I have not prepared it too well 

Suggest a lower staking message

You can never tell but feels that way

Will try and offer up better tomorrow





Preview Selections


Kempton 12.45
£7.00 Win Bet Inappropriate 100/30 
£3.00 Win Bet Nardaran 9/4

Chepstow 1.40 
£6.00 Win Bet Static 10/1
£4.00 Win Bet Nietzsche Has 6/4

Kempton 1.55
Ballyburn 5/4-11/10
Win Bet

Leopardstown 2.20
Lieber Nicc 7/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5
 
Chepstow 2.50
£7.00 Win Bet Atlanta Brave 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Iron Bridge 8/1-9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Val Dancer 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Evies Vladimir 10/1-11/1

Leopardstown 3.00 
£8.00 Win Bet Perceval Legallois 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Will Do 8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Hgranca De Thaix 10/1

Kempton 3.08 
£3.50 Each Way Bass Rock 14/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Highstakesplayer 5/1-11/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Weveallbeencaught 7/1
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3 (4)








Yesterday's Summary
Boxing Day had 9 previews

3 Winners
2 Placed
4 Losers

Generally not too unhappy
Got off to an excellent start
With two very early winners
It gave us lots of protection
First losers in previews 4-5
Very manageable at that stage
Some Scope another winner
More than steadied the ship
Got the King George wrong
Not too surprised to miss it
The best bet had 5 places
Arch Enemy finished in 6th
Got beat a head for a place
Which was rather frustrating
Broke level in the last race
Not much in things overall
Competitive no real danger
The best bet of the day loss
Makes it hard to be praise it
Otherwise it was quite solid
  


 




Profiles & Previews 
 



Kempton 12.45

5/4 Nardaran, 7/2 Risk It All, 5/1 Midnight Rumble
6/1 Inappropriate, 10/1 Lucky Bere, 12/1 Knight Templar
25/1 Kinetic.

3yo Hurdle

Different types have won this
Even unraced hurdlers have

MIDNIGHT RUMBLE is unraced
He represents a statistic I use
That has never let me down yet
It will do once day but hasn't yet

Unraced hurdlers
Sired by Oasis Dream
Have a 0-82 record so far
MIDNIGHT RUMBLE fails this

With just 7 runners in this
Several known unknowns too
A split stake may be the play

NARDARAN a weak favourite

Highly likely to need the run

Could still win but it's a worry

RISK IT ALL is lightly raced
He faces several months off  

INAPPROPRIATE in contrast
Has a recent hurdle win onside
I'd rather side with that profile
Decided to split stake the race

The saver was a choice of two

Selection

£7.00 Win Bet IINAPPROPRIATE 100/30 

£3.00 Win Bet NARDARAN  9/4


 




Chepstow 1.40

6/4 Nietzsche Has, 4/1 Opec, 11/2 Hot Fuss
8/1 Melon, Static, 10/1 Marche d'Aligre, 25/1 Mister Cessna
25/1 My Noble Lord, 33/1 Torrent.

Juvenile Hurdle 2m

Grade 2 race

NIETZSCHE HAS from France 
Has a significant edge on figures

If his numbers are accurate 
He wins this on his last 5 runs

But if they are not accurate
He faces 3 last time winners
Who could all be live threats

NIETZSCHE HAS is off to stud
Tries to win a Graded race here
To boost his CV when at stud

Conscious in his last 3 runs
He has been beaten at short prices

Also conscious he is a colt as well

Going to make him the saver bet
 
OPEC was an option
Improving but she is the only filly
None have won this race before

STATIC looks overpriced
Plenty of experience to draw on

Won in France back in September
Then his saddle slipped next time
Placed in a Wetherby Listed race 
Cheltenham last time forgivable
Had a penalty met a smart horse
Just felt he was overpriced here

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet STATIC 10/1

£4.00 Win Bet NIETZSCHE HAS 6/4







Kempton 1.55

4/5 Ballyburn, 11/10 Sir Gino
12/1 Rubaud, 100/1 Brookie

Graded Novice Chase 2m

High class chase in prospect
2 Cheltenham Festival winners

SIR GINO has looked top class

But should he be odds on here ?
As a 4 year old on a chase debut 
When taking on a 162 rated chaser
BALLYBURN has won both chases
And has proven considerably more

Searched for any 4yo winners
Who won similar races in the past
When having their chasing debut 

Tatenen did it back in 2008
But he had more experience

Fair Along did it back in 2006
But he had 28 career starts

Has been done in the past
Not often and not by a horse
With fewer than 7 career runs
Or one who met an opponent
Rated as high as Ballyburn is

Toss of the coin but at prices
BALLYBURN looks overpriced
Given he has proven the most
Even if it has not been at 2m

Selection

BALLYBURN 5/4-11/10

Win Bet







Leopardstown 2.20

5/1 Ethical Diamond, 11/2 Gaucher, 7/1 Wee Charlie
15/2 Enniskerry, 10/1 Diamond Nora, 10/1 Jacovec Cavern
12/1 Lark In The Mornin, Special Cadeau, 12/1 Suprise Package
14/1 Pinot Gris, 16/1 Aeros Luck, 20/1 Batman Girac
20/1 Cappucino, 20/1 Clarens, 25/1 Best Years Yet
33/1 Ballystone, 33/1 Glan, 33/1 Lieber Nicc, 33/1 Little Mixup
33/1 Metamorpheus, 50/1 Indiana Jones.

Handicap Hurdle 2m

14 Past renewals

Given the size of the field
Going to oppose the 4yo's
Who have long absences
Based on the following stat

Go back to 2009
Handicap Hurdles
More than 11 runners
Class 3 and higher
Any distance 
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
More than 5 career runs
Absent over 128 days
Return a 0-100 record

3 fancied horses fail this

ETHICAL DIAMOND

LARK IN THE MORNING

BATMAN GIRAC


Opposing the most exposed
Horses with over 19 career runs
Have a weak 1-73 record in this
The following look very exposed

GLAN
ENNISKERRY
INDIANA JONES
SURPRISE PACKAGE
LITTLE MIX UP
CLARENS
WEE CHARLIE

Horses aged 6 or more
From listed/graded races 
Have a 0-54 record in this
The following horses fail this

GLAN
BALLYSTONE
SURPRISE PACKAGE
ENNISKERRY
 
BEST YEARS YET is topweight
Happy to avoid him with 11st 12lbs
DIAMOND NORA is a 5yo mare
She looks underraced this season

Horses beaten 20 + lengths
On the last run are 0-55 in this
Several outsiders fail this angle
So do the following horses

BEST YEARS YET 
AEROS LUCK
CAPPUCINO


JACOVEC CAVERN is a 5yo
He is a bit on the exposed side

PINOT GRIS is a 4 year old
He is a bit exposed for his age
When you factor in his absence

GAUCHER doesn't offer enough
SPECIAL CADEAU underraced
Has downgraded stables recently

LIEBER NICC should improve
Asking a lot on his latest start
Inexperienced in a big handicap
Art a very demanding stiff track

Selection

LIEBER NICC 7/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Chepstow 2.50

5/1 Monbeg Genius, 11/2 Galia Des Liteaux, 6/1 Jubilee Express
7/1 Where It All Began, 8/1 Iron Bridge, 10/1 Fontaine Collonges
12/1 The Newest One, 12/1 Val Dancer, 14/1 Atlanta Brave
14/1 Evies Vladimir, Iwilldoit, Stuzzikini, 16/1 No Hubs No Hoobs
16/1 Your Own Story, 66/1 Amateur, 100/1 Classic Concorde


Welsh Grand National 
 
Horses rated 0-148


FONTAINE COLLONGES a 9yo

Difficult ask topweight with 12st
 
Horses with 11st 9lbs or more
Have a very weak 1-39 record

The winner the 6yo Native River
A cheltenham Gold cup winner
  
Horses aged 7 or more
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-56 record in this race
FONTAINE COLLONGES fails this

The race may be in decline
Which would increase his chance
But she has a sire problem too

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running over 3m 2f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Return a 0-56 record

FONTAINE COLLONGES fails this
Have to factor in she is a mare roo
You just wonder if a combination
Of weight and stamina will beat her

GALIA DES LITEAUX also a mare
Also sired by Saddler Maker as well

Horses sired by Saddler Maker
Running over 3m 2f or more
Class 2 or higher grade
Return a 0-56 record
 
GALIA DES LITEAUX gets marked up
By having a second race this season
She has placed form over 3m 5f too
 
The last 27 winners
Ran within the last 54 days
 
The last 27 runner ups
Ran within the last 59 days

Makes it hard to appreciate
The horses with long breaks
These three off 7 + months

IWILLDOIT 

WHERE IT ALL AGAIN

JUBILEE EXPRESS

Go back to 2007
Handicaps over 3m 3f +
Listed and Graded class
Any time of year
Horses with under 16 runs
Absent more than 84 days
Return a 1-131 record in them
JUBILEE EXPRESS fails this

Go back to 2008
Every handicap Chase
Listed and graded class
Run over 3m 2f or further
With more than 6 runners
Any time of the season
8 year olds
Absent more than 147 days
Return a 0-78 record in them
WHERE IT ALL AGAIN fails this

CLASSIC CONCORDE an 11yo
Makes no appeal off 62 days
AMATEUR is easy to dismiss
 
Ideally

I would want two prep runs 

In the previous 12 renewals 
Horses with 1 run this season 
Had a worrying 1-107 record 

But a key trial was abandoned 
Fewer horses have had 2 runs 
We may have to compromise 
And consider horses with 1

MONBEG GENIUS has 1 run

If you look at the past winners
Who had just 1 run that season
And there were a few of those
He is not a match to any one
He has more runs than them
He has more weight than them

He also fail this breeding statistic

Horses sired by Shantou
Running in Listed graded races
Running over 3m 6f + are 0-30
Those absent 4 weeks or more
Running over 3m 2f and further
Return a 0-53 record in them
MONBEG GENIUS next to try
 
STUZZIKINI is a 6yo
Won the Troytown Chase
Gone up 9lbs for that victory
Now faces a career high mark
Very exposed for a 6 year old
He is unproven on sire stats

Horses sired by Champs Elysees
Running over 3m 1f and more
Class 2 and higher are 0-8 
STUZZIKINI fails this statistic

NO HUBS NO HOOBS is an 8yo
Have to worry about his class
Never raced in Class 2 or higher
Thats after having 20 career runs
Having 14 chase runs as well
The last 27 winners were rated 125+
NO HUBS NO HOOBS is rated 124

YOUR OWN STORY is an 8yo
Uncomfortable that 19 days ago
He ran over 4 miles at Kelso
Horses from 3m 6f or more
Running within 6 weeks are 0-22

THE NEWEST ONE a 9yo
Has raced twice this season
But his last run 14 days ago
Beaten 13 lengths at Cheltenham
Does come quicker than ideal

Horses running within 17 days
Have a 0-46 record in this race
  
Horses running within 19 days
Beaten last time out are 0-58
THE NEWEST ONE fails this


Possibles 
 
IRON BRIDGE is an 8yo
He has raced once this year
I'd rather have had another run
But he was second last season
Albeit beaten 34 lengths in 2nd
With just the 1 prep run as well
Lower mark less weight this year
Could not entirely rule him out

EVIES VLADIMIR fails this angle 
Horses from 3m 4f or more
Have a 5-105 record since 1997
Those with 1 run that season
Have a 0-32 record since then
Falling last time nullifies that stat
 
VAL DANCER is a 7 year old
Won in a lower grade last time
Need to turn a few blind eyes here
Decent stable but not a safe sire 
  
ATLANTA BRAVE is rated only 123
Lower than any winner since 1997
He is lightly raced which should help
Like his sire he may relish this trip
But unplaced in a Novice last time
Horses from Novices are 0-26 in this
Going to turn a blind eye to that stat
He went off hard in quite a hot race
Failed generic statistics before that
Lost his iron pulling up at Cheltenham
He could front run and dominate this

Selection
        
£7.00 Win Bet ATLANTA BRAVE 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet IRON BRIDGE 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet VAL DANCER 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet EVIES VLADIMIR 10/1-11/1






Leopardstown 3.00

8/1 Three Card Brag, 10/1 Panda Boy, 12/1 Meetingofthewaters
14/1 Hgranca De Thaix, 14/1 Nick Rockett, 14/1 Perceval Legallois
16/1 Desertmore House, 16/1 Macdermott, 16/1 Pinkerton
16/1 Will Do, 20/1 Spanish Harlem, 25/1 Horantzau d'Airy
25/1 Mars Harper, 25/1 Midnight Our Fred, 28/1 Life In The Park
33/1 Adamantly Chosen, Favori De Champdou, Lucid Dreams
33/1 Positive Thinker, 40/1 Hartur d'Arc, 33/1 History Of Fashion
33/1 Janidil, Toss Again, 50/1 Aime Desjy, Galon De Vauzelle
50/1 Klarc Kent, 66/1 Chavez, 66/1 Fakir d'Alene.

Paddy Power Chase

3m Handicap 

Looks too ambitious a race
So not committing fully to it
 
Against the 10 year olds

The exposed 9 year olds
With over 12 chase runs
 
Neither of the 6yo's appeal
Bth underraced from Mullins

High weights have struggled
Would oppose all of those
Who also bring absences

NICK ROCKETT
MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

MIDNIGHT OUR FRED unsafe

THREE CARD BRAG is a player
Not worried he has 3 chase runs
But lots of weight to cope with

PANDA BOY could be underraced
PINKERTON misses the shortlist
HORANTZAU D'AIRY does as well
DESERTMORE HOUSE is a 9yo
Not too exposed so not a negative
But not first choice given his age


The Troytown
Is the best trial race for this
Providing 5 recent winners
Just one horse prepped there 
PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS 

Shortlisting 3

WILL DO 8/1

HGRANCA DE THAIX 10/1
  
PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS 12/1
 
Selection

£8.00 Win Bet PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet WILL DO 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet HGRANCA DE THAIX 10/1
  


  

Kempton 3.08

11/4 Frero Banbou, 4/1 Dreaming Blue, 6/1 Highstakesplayer
7/1 Weveallbeencaught, 9/1 Slipway, 11/1 Golden Son
12/1 Bass Rock, 12/1  Kitty's Light, 14/1 Beachcomber
16/1 Deise Aba, 16/1 Jet Plane.

Handicap Chase 3m

FRERO BANBOU is a 9yo
Very exposed with 28 chases
Has not been helpful in this race

Most winners in this race
Were younger than 8 years old

The 2002 winner was a 9yo
He had just the 8 chase runs

Go back to 2008
Horses with over 9 chases
Have a  0-78 record in this
This takes out several horses

Deise Aba
Dreaming Blue
Kitty's Light
Frero Banbou
Slipway
Jet Plane

Horses with 1 run that season
Running within 10 weeks
Beaten over 16 lengths in that
Have a 0-22 record in this race 
GOLDEN SON has 1 recent run
Beaten 40 lengths in that race

BEACHCOMBER is a 6yo
Just 3 runs pulled up last time
This may come too quickly

BASS ROCK the lowest rated
May or may not be quite ready   
 
WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT a 7yo
Paddy Power too much for him
Given he was 10lbs out of weights
No shock if he were to pop up

HIGHSTAKESPLAYER is an 8yo
Been running in better class races
Beaten a fair way in a good trial race


Selection

£3.50 Each Way BASS ROCK 14/1

£1.50 Win Bet HIGHSTAKESPLAYER 5/1-9/2
 
£1.50 Win Bet WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT 7/1
 
1/5 Odds

1-2-3 (4)

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