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Today's Best Bet



Curragh 3.00

PEPPER NOIR 4/1

Each Way




Favourite Bet

Down Royal 1.35
£8.50 Win Bet Mordor 9/4-5/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Old Port 5/1-11/2
 
Bath 2.15
£6.00 Win Bet Monkey Miss 5/1-11/2 
£4.00 Place Bet It's Showtime 5/4


    




Final Deliberations  
    
Last message in a long run of 12
No message planned tomorrow
Back tuesday for Chester week

Most bank holiday messages
Like this are rushed and manic
Just too many races to look at
Big element of luck is needed 



8 Previews

3 Beverley
3 Curragh
1 Bath
1 Down Royal


Like the opening race

Hoping this sets the tone


Down Royal 1.35 

£8.50 Win Bet MORDOR 9/4-5/2
 
£1.50 Win Bet OLD PORT 5/1 

Like several of the previews 
Beverley is draw based work
Non runners could hurt those
So reluctant to commit there
Plenty of split stake selections





Curragh 3.00

PEPPER NOIR 4/1

Each Way

Some interesting weight angles
This feels like a percentage bet
Makes sense given all the issues
Not one I wanted to stake though




Bath 2.15

£6.00 Win Bet MONKEY MISS  5/1-11/2

£4.00 Place Bet IT'S SHOWTIME 5/4

Fittest horses in the race
Could have chosen one of them
Gone each way as my best bet
Was very tempted with that option
But did not want to pick wrong
Makes sense need staking luck

Don't see a natural staked bet

Prices are just not good enough

And wilting a bit after a long run

Settled for a best bet of the day

A couple of favourite bets too







Preview Selections

Down Royal 1.35
£8.50 Win Bet Mordor 9/4-5/2 
£1.50 Win Bet Old Port 5/1-11/2

Beverley 1.55
£6.00 Win Bet Spring Corn 7/2-4/1
£4.00 Win Bet Larchill Lass 6/4

Bath 2.15
£6.00 Win Bet Monkey Miss 5/1-11/2 
£4.00 Place Bet It's Showtime 5/4
 
Beverley 2.30
£8.50 Win Bet Brummell 5/2 
£2.00 Win Bet Willolarupi 4/1

Curragh 3.00
Pepper Noir  4/1
Each Way

Curragh 3.35
£3.50 Each Way Wide With Delight 12/1
£3.00 Win Bet Jumbly 2/1

Curragh 4.45
£6.00 Win Bet Superior Force 11/1-12/1
£4.00 Place Bet Come On The Lads 5/4-6/4 

Beverley 4.50 
£9.00 Win Bet She's Got Bottle 7/4 
£1.00 Win Bet Distinction 9/1-10/1








Yesterday's Summary   

Needed to back off yesterday
Just the effects of a long run
Saving something for today
Didn't get the guineas winner
Ramatuelle ran a great race
Maybe she did not stay a mile
But it looked a false run race
Winner was comfortably last
And came home to win it late
Perhaps they went off too fast 
Did not get an outright winner
Fast Society won as the saver
The Intinso bet did not deliver
My favourite bet so annoying 
Rainbow Sign was going well
Thought he was ready to win
But his jockey made a decision
To head to the near side rail
Looked a bad decision to me
Cost him a chance of a place
Could be wrong but felt that
Expected a below average day
And we came away with one







PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
  
  



Down Royal 1.35

2/1 Le Coq Hardi, 11/4 Mordor, 9/2 Old Port
10/1 Giant Haystacks, 14/1 Nemo, Whatsanotheryear
16/1 Buttoned Up, 25/1 Ballinearla Girl, Pahlavi,
25/1 Dromineer Smurphy,  33/1 Edge Of Darkness
33/1 Zero Fighter, 50/1 Drum Roll, Garrick Painter
50/1 Gustavo Goodway, High Honour, 100/1 Kalsman
100/1 Kartel And Co, March Law, 100/1 Shinnhill.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 1f

Big field but sortable

Lots of deadwood in this

MORDOR is a 4 year old

Horses aged 4
Have not done that well
But those with 8 or more runs
Have a much better record
MORDOR has had 10 runs
He has to be on a shortlist
  
Many of his rivals
Have something against them

January to May
Down Royal
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Horses with under 15 runs
Absent more than 146 days
Have a 0-119 record in them
The following all fail this

LE COQ HARDI
PAHLAVI
 
GIANT HAYSTACKS is raw
 
OLD PORT has 113 days off

Comes here unseated and fell

Not worried about that
As he has an absence
Time for a lot of schooling
From a very shrewd stable
He was a smart flat horse
His hurdling debut at Cork
Puts him in with a chance
 
Selection

£8.50 Win Bet MORDOR 3/1
 
£1.50 Win Bet OLD PORT 5/1 







Beverley 1.55

15/8 Larchill Lass, 7/2 Call Me Harswell, 4/1 Spring Corn,
8/1 Greek Gift, 10/1 Space Raider, 12/1 Sybaris Jewel
14/1 J Street, 22/1 Stat Goddess, 25/1 Azuinthejungle
25/1 Juno Star, 25/1 Owt For Nowt, 33/1 Bobby Jones
33/1 Stirrup Cup.

5f Maiden (2yo)

LARCHILL LASS a filly
Has raced just one before
Decent debut as 2/1 favourite

CALL ME HARSWELL a filly
Met her and finished in second
In contrast she was 12/1 to win

Something to consider

Go back to 2011
Beverley 5f races
Any type of race
Any time of year
Fillies with under 2 runs
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Have a 0-64 record in them
CALL ME HARSWELL fails
So rejecting her drawn in 12

GREEK GIFT is unraced
Drawn 10 might well test her
SPACE RAIDER also unraced
Not the first choice drawn 11

SPRING CORN is a positive
Has to give the sex allowance 
LARCHILL LASS gets that
But was also a cheaper horse
So going to split stake this race

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SPRING CORN 4/1

£4.00 Win Bet LARCHILL LASS 6/4








Bath 2.15

5/2 Forever Eighteen, 4/1 Anglesey Lad, 5/1 Monkey Miss
6/1 It's Showtime, 7/1 Forgotten Treasure, 8/1 Smooth Silesie
16/1 Lady Twilight, 20/1 Birkie Boy, 20/1Tres Chic
66/1 Majolica.

3yo Handicap

5f 160yds

Clear enough from figures
The bottomweights are poor
Better staying with horses
At the top of the handicap
Ideally fit with momentum

IT'S SHOWTIME is one 
And probably the only one 
She is the joint topweight 
Has 4 runs since February
And a decent run 11 days ago
That could work in her favour
She could get a bit outpaced
Jus a hunch but is a positive

Much depends on her rivals
And just how ready there are 

Her main rivals in contrast
Have raced once in months

FORGOTTEN TREASURE
FOREVER EIGHTEEN
ANGLESEY LAD

ANGLESEY LAD of these
Has a vulnerable profile
As he drops down from 7f

March to June
3yo handicaps
Run under 7 furlongs
Class 6 races
Horses with over 4 runs
Just 1 run this season
Absent over 14 days
Down from a 7f race
Have a 0-48 record
ANGLESEY LAD fails this

Strongest candidates may be

FOREVER EIGHTEEN

IT'S SHOWTIME

MONKEY MISS

Staying with the fittest pair

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet MONKEY MISS  5/1-11/2

£4.00 Place Bet IT'S SHOWTIME 5/4







Beverley 2.30

11/4 Brummell, 3/1 Willolarupi, 7/1 Mecca's Duchess
7/1 Vintage Love, 15/2 La La Lucrative, 8/1 Queens Road Revue
12/1 Ticktyboo, 14/1 Crooked Crown, 14/1 Malibu Sunrise
22/1 Our Neil

3yo Handicap (5f)
 
Past winners of this race
Had the following  runs
6 3 3 9 10 5 11 9 11 8 8 6
Most have 5 career runs

LA LA LUCRATIVE has 3 runs
That's fine but with an absence
Drawn in stall 9 she is unsafe
 
Go back to 2011
Beverley 5f races
Under 12 runners
3 year olds
Under 9 career runs
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-39 record
LA LA LUCRATIVE fails this
WILLOLARUPI fails this too
  
This is quite interesting

Go back to 2011
Beverley 5f races
Under 16 runners
Horses aged 3 or more
With just the 1 run
In the previous 4 months
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-67 record in them
WILLOLARUPI fails this

This is a complicated angle

Beverley
Go back to 2007
Every 5f handicap
Run on softer than good  
Any class of race
Any time of year 
Fillies aged 3 or older
Under 9 career starts
Absent more than 10 days
Have a 0-29 record in them
The following all fail this

OUR NEIL
MECCA'S DUCHESS
MALIBU SUNRISE
CROOKED CROWN
QUEENS ROAD REVIE
 
QUEENS ROAD REVIE has 3 runs
Tim Easterby on her seasonal debut
The sire is also poor in all 5f races
When horses are absent over 94 days
The 3 year olds trying this are 0-34

TICKTYBOO has topweight
First time out will be difficult
 
Best profile

5 or more career runs
Running within 42 days
From class 4 or lower 
Carrying 8st 12lbs or more
Beaten last time out
Not by more than 10 lengths
Starting under 16/1 last time 
Horses with this profile 
Have an 9-39 record 

WILLOLARUPI has this profile
But fails some earlier draw stats
Because she is drawn 10 of 10
 
VINTAGE LOVE has this profile
But he comes down from 7f to 5f
With just 1 run in many months
Can not match her to any winner

BRUMMELL also has this profile
  
WILLOLARUPI is a saver
Despite the widest draw here
Any non runner negates that
Selection

£8.50 Win Bet BRUMMELL 5/2

£2.00 Win Bet WILLOLARUPI 4/1







Curragh 3.00

7/2 Sluice, 5/1 Madame Plaintiff
6/1 Pepper Noir, 6/1 Ribchestina, 13/2 Salah Belle
8/1 Asian Daze, Glamorously, 12/1 Neo Smart
14/1 Straya, 18/1 Glimmerglass.

7f Fillies Handicap (3yo)

Horses rated 0-86

3 Past renewals

All 3 winners

Had under 5 career starts

Happy to be flexible with this
But don't want many more runs
Unexposed and well treated types
Have been the way to go here

ASIAN DAZE has 7 runs
Weakest jockey in the race
She is not like past winners

GLAMOUROUSLY has 11 runs
She may well be too exposed

NEO SMART has 9 runs
With 1 modest run this season
Needed more than he offers

MADAME PLAINTIFF has 5 runs
That is forgivable but last time out
She only won a 0-65 handicap
This is a much harder 0-86 race
Her figures after 5 runs are weak
In the context of a 0-86 class race

STRAYA is wrong from a 10f race
SALAH BELLE has ram just once
With 136 days off she looks raw

SLUICE has 3 career starts
The type that has won this race
Main worry with her 9st 12lbs
The 3 past winners lightweights
All of them had under 9st weight

This may or may not be relevant

Go back to 2007

Curragh 7f handicaps
Any type of race
Any class of race
Any time of year

Fillies aged 3
Under 5 career runs
Carrying 9st or more
Have a 0-63 record
SLUICE fails this angle
So do the following horses

RIBCHESTINA
STRAYA
SALAH BELLE

3 year olds of either sex
With under 5 career starts
Carrying 9st 11lbs or more
Have a 0-16 record in them
SLUICE also fails this

PEPPER NOIR has 5 runs
She is shortlistable and fine
Just not sure about 7f on soft
She did it here last time out
Beaten only a couple of lengths

The added complication here
Her trainer runs 2 in this race
MADAME PLAINTIFF the other
May have underestimated here
Some of her runs were last year
When she was getting handicapped
She bolted up at Gowran Park

PEPPER NOIR 

Has the fitter profile of the two

4/1 each way seems the best play

Selection

PEPPER NOIR 4/1

Each Way






Curragh 3.35

 9/4 Jumbly, 4/1 Vain Gloria, 5/1 Doom
13/2 Magical Sunset, 7/1 Gregarina, You Send Me
10/1 Bluedrum, Valpolicella, 14/1 Wide With Delight
33/1 Purple Love.

Athasi Stakes

Group race 7f

JUMBLY is a smart horse

No surprise she is favourite
Only 1 horse aged 5 has won
She is not the ideal age for this
Could she be on the bounce ?

Not sure hard to judge that
Comes from the Gladness stakes
All 5 horse doing that failed

VAIN GLORIA has 2 runs
The last of those 283 days ago

Going to oppose her today
For the following 2 reasons

This could be a prep run
Trainer says her main target 
Is the Lanwades Stakes 
You can win a prep race
But she also fails a sire stat 

Horses sired by Kodi Bear  
Running over 7f or more
Ground softer than good
Absent more than 42 days
Have a 0-33 record so far 
VAIN GLORIA next to try
 
BLUEDRUM has 1 run
Will he stay with a break ?
Can not be sure from her sire

DOOM is a seasonal debutant
If she was fit and 100% ready
You'd expect her to be shorter

WIDE WITH DELIGHT

Won on her debut last time
Trainer said she might need it
After she won like the fact
He nominated this race for her

Just 1 run is inexperienced
But it has been done in this race
She gets plenty of weight too
Going to save on the favourite

Selection

£3.50 Each Way WIDE WITH DELIGHT 12/1

£3.00 Win Bet JUMBLY 2/1







Curragh 4.45

4/1 El Bello, 6/1 Racing Royalty, 13/2 Come On The Lads
8/1 Alessia Fernanda, 8/1 Mogwli, 8/1 Superior Force
10/1 Secret Magician, 12/1 Shawaamekh, 14/1 Arch Enemy
14/1 Orandi, 16/1 Encosta, Rattletheonionbag,16/1 Zabeir
20/1 Out On Friday, 20/1 Rhythm King, 20/1 Rock Etoile
25/1 Loingseoir, 25/1 Shimmerz, 33/1 Rochester Mike
33/1 Takeachancejimmy.

7f handicap

Apprentice riders

Tough race in a big field

Just looking at past renewals

RACING ROYALTY is favourite

Not sure if stall 2 helps or hurts
But horse with 1 run that season
Have a 0-35 record in this race
And I'd be wary about that type
Otheres failing this angle as well

ENCOSTA
ROCK ETOILE
ARCH ENEMY

Past renewals show
Horses with under 8 runs
Have a 0-31 record 
The following fail this

RATTLETHEONIONBAG
ROCHESTER MIKE
COME O THE LADS
ALESSIA FERNANDA

Opposing the following
ZABEIR with a long break
SHAWAAMEKH a 10yo
Without a run in months
ORANDI with top weight

SECRET MAGICIAN is a player
But he comes from a 6f race
Horses doing that in this race
Have a 0-24 record so far
That worries me about his chance
RHYTHM KING is out of form

EL BELLO has positives
But not a sire I could trust
In a big field on soft over 7f

Horses sired by El Kabeir
Running over 7f and more
Fields of 8 or more runners
Soft and heavy ground are 0-48 
EL BELLO next to try

MOGWLI has positives too
The question I would ask
On a Grade 1 track like this

Do we want a horse
Who has 66 career starts
Ridden by a 7lbs claimer
Who has has 3 lifetime rides

SUPERIOR FORCE

He's been running well
Has had some excuses
Widest draw at Dundalk
He appealed most of all
Stall 9 is not easy to read
Not one I know will run well
Felt he had the least negatives
But he is drifting worryingly

Going to reduce the risk


Selection

£6.00 Win Bet SUPERIOR FORCE 11/1-12/1

£4.00 Place Bet COME O THE LADS 5/4-6/4 







Beverley 4.50

5/2 She's Got Bottle, 5/1 Calcutta Dream 
6/1 Dougies Dream 8/1 Sunny Orange, 10/1 Distinction
10/1 Moush, 12/1 Clotherholme, 12/1 Josiebond,
14/1 Rose'aid, 14/1 Run Simba, 16/1 Capernoity
33/1 Missmimi.

8f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

SHE'S GOT BOTTLE a 5yo mare 
Has plenty of positives behind her

The class horse
The fittest profile

Last time out figures
Have her comfortably clear
Against some flawed rivals

Go back to 2015
Beverley 8f races
With under 13 runners
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 0-28 record 
CALCUTTA DREAM drawn 2
MOUSH drawn in stall 11
Have plenty to overcome

Go back to 2004
March April May
8f handicaps
Class 6 races
Horses aged 4
Over 14 career runs
Coming up in distance
Just 1 run this season
Running within 4 weeks
Have a 0-17 record
SUNNY ORANGE fails this

ROSE'AID a 4yo filly
Looks raw well beaten last time
CLOTHERHOLME beatable 
None of the above appeal enough


DOUGIES DREAM an option
But he does have stall 10

Go back to 2011
Beverley 8f races
With under 13 runners
Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 14 days
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a 0-30 record
DOUGIES DREAM fails this

DISTINCTION is a player
His best figures 8f on soft
Decent draw a fair price
Worth a small saver bet

Selection

£9.00 Win Bet SHE'S GOT BOTTLE 7/4

£1.00 Win Bet DISTINCTION 9/1-10/1

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