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Final Deliberations


5 Previews

The first one not till 4.28pm

It's a late starting message

Not a very significant one

Not meetings I enjoy much

Doncaster starts tomorrow
Start of a busy 4 day period
Today I'm backing off a bit
On the bounce not inspired
Want to get tomorrow right



No selections






Preview Selections

Carlisle 4.28
Catch The Light 100/30-7/2
Each Way

Cork 4.55
£5.00 Win Bet Collective Power 5/1-11/2
£5.00 Place Bet Imperial Dream 10/11-1/1

Lingfield 5.20
Pure Of Heart 5/2-9/4
Win Bet

Worcester 5.40
£7.50 Win Bet Miss Goldfire 9/2-4/1
£2.50 Win Bet Rockola Vogue 3/1-100/30

Worcester 6.10
The Flying Poet 4/1-9/2
Each Way

 




Yesterday's Summary    

Mixed day felt we lost it really
Previews went L L P W P L P
We had some disappointments
Al Waseela finishing only 2nd
The winner got first run on him
But had plenty left in the tank
So can not say we were unlucky
Lost In Time may well have been
Just given too much to do really
Fast finisher into second place
Shaped like the best horse in that
But at least got stakes returned
Some staking did well others not
Overall avoid any major disaster
But it was quite underwhelming






   

PROFILES & PREVIEWS


 


Carlisle 4.28

2/1 Games People Play, 5/2 Catch The Light
3/1 South Pole, 4/1 Christian Bruce, 20/1 Desejada
20/1 Meridian Way, 25/1 Melinda, Rainproof
50/1 Krissy, 50/1 Xander Nevett, 66/1 Bolton
66/1 Edward Cullen, Magic Glen, 66/1 Rained Off.

Maiden race 1m 3f

Shapes like a 4 horse race

GAMES PEOPLE PLAY

Probably the best horse
Although that is debatable

Has a good opportunity here
But there are some concerns

She has been messed about 

Stepping up from 10f to 14f

Coming down from 14f to 11f

That's not an orthodox profile
No fillies have ever done this
But hardly any have tried to

The draw may be a problem
GAMES PEOPLE PLAY in 13
Has a worryingly high draw

Since the stalls renumbered
Carlisle races over 11 furlongs
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a poor 1-60 record
That winner an older handicapper
Not a good draw over this trip

CHRISTIAN BRUCE a filly
Once raced drawn in stall 11
Much to prove from a poor draw
 
Prefer the other main rivals

CATCH THE LIGHT is a filly
She cost 500,000 guineas
No shame in any of her runs
Met a long odds on shot last time
Ran second to him from worst draw
Bath 10f was a bit too ambitions
As a once raced daughter of Siyouni
Not worried about her 87 day break

SOUTH POLE looks the danger

Could go win bet with a saver

But picking one of the two

Going each way

In case I call the favourite wrong

Selection

CATCH THE LIGHT 100/30-7/2

Each Way







Cork 4.55

11/4 Heart Of Darkness, 9/2 Moltophino
5/1 Imperial Dream, 11/2 Grand City Hall
13/2 Never Shout Never, 8/1 Goal Exceeded
8/1 Linger For Longer, 10/1 Collective Power
10/1 Gabriella's Spirit.

6f handicap

Horses rated 0-85

Trying out a new Cork angle

About 3 year olds in handicaps

Carrying big weights against elders

Go back to 2009
Cork 6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Over 6 career runs
Absent over 4 days
Carrying 9st 3lbs or more
Have a 0-39 record
Three horses try this

GRAND CITY HALL
GOAL EXCEEDED
MOLTOPHINO

HEART OF DARKNESS
Passes as she has fewer runs
But a 3yo filly absent 124 days 
None have won like her either
 
If the above works out

And we get the above beaten

It isolates two horses
With a decent class edge
Over the remaining runners

IMPERIAL DREAM

COLLECTIVE POWER

Split Staking both



Selection

£5.00 Win Bet COLLECTIVE POWER 5/1-11/2

£5.00 Place Bet IMPERIAL DREAM 10/11-1/1





Lingfield 5.20

3/1 Pure Of Heart, 7/2 Moon Angel, 9/2 Nancy P
7/1 Beset, Golden Phase, 8/1 Absolute Queen
10/1 Celestial Wave, 12/1 Raqisa.

Fillies Handicap 12f

Horses rated 0-72

ABSOLUTE QUEEN topweight
Seems to have lost her form
Beaten 96 lengths in two races

RAQISA rated 71 an older mare
Older mare outsider off 404 days

Get this pair beaten as is likely

PURE OF HEART rated 72

Only has a 0-69 class field to beat

Can win this on most of her runs

Not last time out she was a bit flat
But it was a messily run handicap
She was eased down when beaten
 
BESET has not done enough
MOON ANGEL has ran 3 times
Looks like she needs to improve
Not impressed watching her runs

GOLDEN PHASE has some form
But is hardly likely to be improving 
NANCY P younger less exposed
Could well end up being the danger


PURE OF HEART

Looks placed well 

They need to get a win from her

This looks her best opportunity

Selection

PURE OF HEART 5/2-9/4

Win Bet







Worcester 5.40

13/8 Dameofthecotswolds, 100/30 Miss Goldfire
7/2 Rockola Vogue, 12/1 Back In The Bay, Lahinch Wave
14/1 Confidential Gosip, The Dream Goes On, 20/1 Moon Lady
20/1 Summerleaze, 50/1 Trickalight, 66/1 Prophet Squeeze
100/1 Conniegetaway.

Mares maiden hurdle 2m 4f

DREAMOFTHECOTSWOLD
Arguably sets the standard 
But the only 4yo in this race
She has 108 days absence too

Go back to 2007
Mares maiden hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or more
Any time of the year
Horses aged 4 
More than 1 career start
Absent over 66 days
Return a 0-38 record

Smallish sample size
But weakness in her profile

CONFIDENTIAL GOSIP a 5yo
Has experience not out of it
But just downgraded stables
Where she was sold cheaply

THE DREAM GOES ON a 5yo
Just has not done enough yet

ROCKOLA VOGUE a 5yo
Won a bumper last time out
No hurdle form modest profile
Obviously known unknowns

MISS GOLDFIRE is a 5yo
She comes up 4f in distance
Bound to suit her on pedigree
Entitled to have needed a run
When a decent second last time

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet MISS GOLDFIRE 9/2-4/1

£2.50 Win Bet ROCKOLA VOGUE 3/1-100/30





Worcester 6.10

4/1 Mahler Moon, 5/1 Anytrixwilldo, 5/1Chancycourt
5/1 The Flying Poet, 6/1 King Roly, 6/1 Moonset
8/1 Micronormous, 12/1 Almuhit, 20/1 Shaving
33/1 Noble Cave, 66/1 O'Grady's Boy
66/1 Pennant Legacy.


Maiden Hurdle 2m 7f

KING ROLY has been backed
Won a bumper 25 days ago

Hurdling debut over 2m 7f
Has been done profile is ok
But clearly not an advantage

And his sires hurdlers
On their first ever hurdle run
None have yet won over this far
MOONSET the same problem
And his sires hurdlers
On their first ever hurdle run
Have yet to win beyond 2m 2f

On balance opposing them both

MAHLER MOON has 9 hurdle runs
Career best Racng Post Rating 107
Not impressive after 9 attempts
Raced just once in 141 days as well
Maybe shorter than he should be
Because Dan Skelton trains him
Could also be on the bounce here

CHANCYCOURT is an 8yo

Go back to 2001
August to November
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 5f and more
Horses aged 8 or more
Under 20 career starts
Return a 0-134 record
CHANCYCOURT fails this

THE FLYING POET

Twice raced hurdler
Should have won last time
Jumped the last in 6th place
Finished fast lost in a photo
Looks sure to relish this trip
Prefer his chance to others

Selection

THE FLYING POET 4/1-9/2

Each Way





FUTURE BETTING ANGLES 


Ante Post Statistics

Saturday 14th Sept

Doncaster 2.25

Portland Handicap

Elmonjed 6/1 Shagraan 7/1 Woodhay Wonder 10/1 
Jm Jungle 10/1 American Affair 10/1 Wiltshire 10/1
Holkham Bay 10/1 Pocklington 12/1 Apollo One 12/1
Cover Up 14/1 Aberama Gold 14/1 Albasheer 14/1
Bergerac 14/1 Rumstar 16/1 Walbank 16/1
Secret Guest 16/1 Woolhampton 20/1 Trefor 20/1
Venture Capital 20/1 Hiya Maite 20/1  Born To Rock 20/1
Dream Composer 25/1 Wodao 25/1 Equilateral 25/1
Vintage Clarets 25/1 Archduke Ferdinand 25/1
Get It 25/1 Trilby 33/1 Intervention 33/1 Rizg 33/1
Almarada Prince 33/1 Manila Scouse 33/1
Silky Wilkie 40/1 Thankuappreciate 40/1Desert Cop 50/1
Emperor Spirit 50/1 Hyperfocus 66/1

 
The last 22 winners
Had the following draws

12 14 5 18 14 18 22 12
10 15 12  21 15 16 18
21 5 5 13 15 20 9 8

No horse has won this
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4

The 2022 winner
Did win drawn from stall 3
But only in the stewards room
The winner drawn in stall 14
Was demoted after the race
 
Since 2002
Every Portland winner
Ran within the last 47 days

Go back to 1997
Horses with over 7 runs
Absent more than 28 days
Have a 1-104 record in this
Only winner a 5yo in 2018

3 year olds
Have a 1-56 record since 2001
That sole winner was in 2019

4 year olds
Won 7 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
22 16 13 9 7 17 18
Had the following runs that year
8 6 5 4 3 6 9
Had the following absences
7 24 24 24 42 24 18 days
Won from the following ratings
106 91 102 95 100 96 100
Won from the following draws
12 14 5 12 5 12 14

4yo's winning last time are 1-26 

Horses aged 4
More than 7 career runs
Absent over 24 days
Have a 0-40 record since 1997

5 year olds
Won 9 races since 2002
Had the following career runs
26 29 30 24 19 6 8 20 31
Had the following runs that year
5 8 6 6 3 5 5 4 8
Had the following absences
20 46 14 19 28 7 35 28 15 days
Won from the following ratings
93 99 101 97 97 96 100 95
Won from the following draws
18 18 22 14 20 19 6 17 14

6 year olds
Have a 0-101 record since 1997
Count the 2022 promoted winner
That becomes a 1-101 record

Go back to 2005
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 3 days
Have a 0-126 record
Count the 2022 promoted winner
That becomes a 1-126 record
   
Fillies have a 1-67 record
The winner a 4yo filly in 2013

Official Ratings of past winners
 
106 92 102 93 105 99 92 
95 108 100 96 97 101 96

Horses aged 5 or more
Rated 102 or higher
Absent over just 3 days
Return a 0-35 record

Lighter weights struggle
Horses with 8st 8lbs or less
Have a 0-59 record since 2002
 
Avoid 1-2 runs that season
Horses from Pattern races 
Have a 2-61 record in this
Those absent over a week 0-52

No winners came from 7f or 8f

Horses just beaten 12+ lengths
Have not won this in decades
 
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