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Today's Best Bet


Newbury 12.45 

£5.00 Win Bet PERSONAL AMBITION 8/1
 
£5.00 Win Bet KALIF DU BERLAIS 10/11-4/5







Final Deliberations 

 
Pleased with the week so far
But the big tests are coming
 
My first bet of the day's won

Octopus's wheel of fortune
Free Spin nicked me a pound
Hope that's not my last winner

From the wheels or fortune

To the wheels coming off



I quite like today's message

Would defend every preview

Could make any the best bet




Going with this race 


Newbury 12.45 

£5.00 Win Bet PERSONAL AMBITION 8/1
 
£5.00 Win Bet KALIF DU BERLAIS 10/11-4/5


Saving on a fancied talking horse

With a big improver for the profit









Preview Selections

 
Doncaster 11.55
Idefix De Ciergues 5/1-9/2 
Each Way
 
Newbury 12.45 
£5.00 Win Bet Personal Ambition 8/1 
£5.00 Win Bet Kalif Du Berlais 10/11-4/5
 
Newbury 3.05 
£7.50 Win Bet Monmiral 4/1-9/2 
£2.50 Win Bet Langer Dan 11/4-3/1
 
Newbury 3.40 
£3.50 Each Way Hardy Boy 14/1-12/1 
£3.00 Win Bet Woodie Flash  9/4 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4

Dundalk 5.00 
William F Browne 11/4-3/1
Win Bet








Yesterday's Summary
 
Short but accurate message
Not as accurate as I wanted
Sassified lost in a photo finish
Getaway With You did as well
If we had got those two photos
Would have been a great day
But the best bet won very well
Okavango Delta won smoothly
Overall we finished up L W P L
The strongest bet the highlight
Which made it a winning day




 


Profiles & Previews



Doncaster 11.55

2/1 Kick Up A Storm, 5/1 Jeteye
11/2 Idefix De Ciergues 15/2 Rivers Corner
10/1 Prince De Juilley, 10/1 Redbridge Rambler
12/1 On Springs, 14/1 Minniemum
16/1 Rickety Gate

Handicap Hurdle 3m

Horses rated 0-117

KING UP A STORM is topweight

He comes here on a hat trick

He is up in class and weight

Faces a bigger field than last time
Don't have any strong objections

Against the mares with absences

MINNIEMUM
KAZONTHERAZZ
 
CAPTAIN POTTER out as a 4yo

Several have long absences 
RIVERS CORNER one of them
He has 11st 12lbs in a big field
Would not be my first choice

PRINCE DE JUILLEY is a 7yo
He won at Ludlow last time out
But it was quite a weaker grade 
Beat horses mainly rated 0-90
Every horse in this except one
Have official ratings of 104 +
Faces a much harder test here

One of the known unknowns

IDEFIX DE CIERGUES 

Won a chase last time out
Now drops down to hurdles
His profile was interesting

Go back to 2008
November and December
Handicap Hurdles over 3m

Horses from a chase
Winning last time out
Under 16 lifetime starts
Return a strong 6-9 record 

The 9 that tried finished
W W 3 W 4 W 2 W W

Horses aged 6 that tried
Finished W W W 2 W 

IDEFIX DE CIERGUES next to try

Going with him on the above profile
  
Selection

IDEFIX DE CIERGUES 5/1-11/2

Each Way







Newbury 12.45

5/4 Kalif Du Berlais, 9/2 Asta La Pasta
15/2 Personal Ambition, 9/1 Idy Wood, 9/1  Tedley
10/1 Myretown, 12/1 Brookie, 14/1 Classic Anthem
33/1 Moulins Clermont, 33/1Tapley.
 
Novice Handicap Chase 2m
 
KALIF DU BERLAIS 

He is only a 4 year old
 
And currently odds on

The 2019 winner was a 4yo  
 He does feel a little too short
After coming off a recent fall
But no statistical objections
Clearly high class and fancied
He is best played as a saver

Past renewals clearly show
Horses with 5-11 career runs
Tend to take this handicap

Opposing the most exposed

TEDLETY
TAPLEY
BROOKIE

You want 1-2 runs this season
Ideally winning over fences 
Seasonal debutants rarely win 
MYRETOWN has this problem
MOULINS CLERMONT does too

CLASSIC ANTHEM is rejected
Rated far lower than most winners

ASTA LA PASTA has a chance
Comes here winning over 2m 4f
Dropping back half a mile in trip
There are some better matches 

IDY WOOD has a chance
The 6yo winners with similar profiles
Did have a couple more career runs
He is also on the smaller side as well

PERSONAL AMBITION is a 5yo
He is a much stronger chasing type

Good profile but has a lot of weight
Last years winner was  similar
Winning this race with 11st 10lbs
Going to overlook his weight here
With the favourite acting as a saver

Selection

£5.00 Win Bet PERSONAL AMBITION 8/1
 
£5.00 Win Bet KALIF DU BERLAIS 10/11-4/5






Newbury 3.05

4/5 Strong Leader, 15/8 Langer Dan
11/2 Monmiral, 25/1 Flight Deck.
 
Handicap Hurdle 3m

Small field of quality hurdlers

Official Ratings

160 Langer Dan
158 Strong Leader
144 Monmiral
132 Flight Deck

LANGER DAN is top rated
Not really his best time of year
But that may not be important

MONMIRAL rated 144
Has a lot to do on the ratings
But he has had a run this year
We could improve for that run

Paul Nicholls has commented
That "we could sneak this"

He may well be right

My breeding statistics agree

Sires in this race

Their hurdlers
Running over 3m or more
In Listed and Graded races
On soft and heavy ground

MONMIRAL's sire is 5-25

LANGER DAN's sire is 0-2

STRONG LEADERS sire is 0-10

FLUGHT DECK's sire is 0-16

On breeding statistics
MONMIRAL comes out best
From the only proven sire

STRONG LEADER the favourite

Could easily still take this race

Look at his sire Passing Glance

His hurdles over 3m or more
Class 2 of higher grade
Have won several races 
None of them had absences
More than 77 days on G-soft
More than 38 days on softer

STRONG LEADER would be first
From this sire with a longer break
And it could well be just too much

Going to split stake this race

LANGER DAN is a saver bet
Love the sire in staying races
Best on official ratings as well

Selection
  
£7.50 Win Bet MONMIRAL 4/1-9/2

£2.50 Win Bet LANGER DAN 11/4-3/1







Newbury 3.40

9/4 Woodie Flash, 11/2 Hermino AA, 6/1 Largy Poet
6/1 Madaket, 10/1 Chantry House, 11/1 Annsam
12/1 Astronomic View, 12/1 Hugos New Horse
14/1 Hardy Boy, 16/1 Vee Dancer, 20/1 Lossiemouth

Handicap Hurdle 3m

CHANTRY HOUSE is topweight

He is a 10yo with 211 days off

Seems fancied but not for me

Go back to 1997
November
Handicap hurdles
Class 4 or higher
Run over 2m 5f or more
Horses aged 8 or older
More than 19 career runs
Absent more than 36 days
Carrying11st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-84 record
CHANTRY HOUSE fails this
 
Go back to 1997
November and December
Handicap hurdles
Class 4 or higher
Run over  3m or more
Horses aged 8 or older
More than 19 career runs
Absent more than 36 days
Carrying11st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-71 record
CHANTRY HOUSE fails this too

Go back to 2005
Newbury
3m handicap hurdles
Class 4 or higher
Any time of year
Horses absent over 70 days
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Return a 0-44 record in them
CHANTRY HOUSE fails this
So do the following horses

LOSSIE MOUTH
HERMINO A A 

This has not been a good race 
For seasonal debutants anyway

17 Past renewals

16 of the 17 winners
Ran within the last 37 days
Horses absent longer
Have a weak 1-87 record
Those with over 4 runs
Absent that long are 0-84
The following all fail this

CHANTRY HOUSE
LOSSIE MOUTH
HERMINO A A 
LARGY POET
HUGOS NEW HORSE
MADAKET
VEE DANCER

ANNSAM has a chance
But going up half a mile
With just1 run this season
Needed a better last run
For such an exposed horse

ASTRONOMIC VIEW a 7yo
Respected but not like a winner

Past renewals show

Horses with 1 run this season
Coming from 2m 6f or shorter
With more than 6 hurdle races
Return a 0-19 record in this
The following horses fail this

ANNSAM 
ASTRONOMIC VIEW

Shortlisting two

WOODIE FLASH

Making him the saver bet

HARDY BOY

Would not be an ideal match 
As a very exposed 7 year old
Can criticise him in many ways
But easily the fittest profile here

He has had 5 runs since August
No other horse has more than 1
So going to give him a chance

Selection

£3.50 Each Way HARDY BOY 14/1-12/1

£3.00 Win Bet WOODIE FLASH 9/4

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4






Dundalk 5.00

11/4 William F Browne, 9/2 Tam Lin
5/1 Ze Do Asfalto 11/2 Midnight Stagger, 6/1 Antoine De Paris
10/1 Senior Montecristo 10/1 Your Call, 20/1 Kitty Bear
25/1 Alumni Lia, 25/1 Bad Timing, 25/1 Romantic War
50/1 Due Respect, 66/1 Handmedownmybible
150/1 Ballyneety Girl.

2yo Claimer 7f

One horse stands out

On experience and figures

WILLIAM F BROWNE

Can upgrade his last run too
Drawn 18 of 18 over at Naas
That race worth 70k to the winner
This in contrast worth just over 6f

Don't see any better options

ZE DO ASFALTO is unsafe
Having raced only the once
ANTOINE DE PARIS unsafe
Beaten 5 lengths 2 days ago

YOUR CALL offers more
But having had 9 career runs
Career best R.Post Rating of 60
Suggests he has limitations

TAM LIM has his chance as well
Feel the favourite is a grade better

Selection

WILLIAM F BROWNE 11/4-5/2

Win Bet

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