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Final Deliberations 


 
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Weather affected day

Hexham is abandoned 
Warwick has survived

Stayed with two cards
Guaranteed to be on
Even if they are harder

Speculative message

Small stakes day

Nothing too significant

Not a day for a battle

Using today as practice



No Selections


 




Preview Selections

  
Ffos Las 12.50 
£4.50 Each Way Wonder Of The Seas 7/1-13/2 
£1.00 Win Bet Shillanavogy 8/1-9/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
 
Dundalk 1.15
Queens Fury 5/2
Each Way

Ffos Las 1.25
£7.50 Win Bet Andy Amo 3/1-11/4
£2.50 Win Bet Jig's Forge 43/1

Dundalk 1.50
£4.00 Each Way Nikki Swango 13/2-7/1
£2.00 Win Bet  Finsceal Annie 4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
 
Dundalk 3.00 
£6.50 Win Bet Undefeatable  7/1 
£3.50 Place Bet Movin And Groovin 7/4







Yesterday's Summary

Not too much to cheer about
Message finished L P L L P
Felt the best bet was robbed
Gold Aura finished in second
Behind the 28/1 rank outsider
Who was given a huge lead
Every other jockey banned
Farcial race made the news
We would have won the race 
Had he been ridden correctly
Didn't get much luck elsewhere
Marcus Furius fell over hurdles
Grabbed a couple of saver bets
But the first race was sickening
And never recovered from that








Profiles & Previews

 
  
Ffos Las 12.50

9/2 Hobb's Delight, 6/1 Montys Soldier
6/1 Shillanavogy, Wonder Of The Seas, 7/1 Bridget Mary
8/1 The Scorpion King, 10/1 Try The Money, Wide To West
16/1 No Drama, Prime Pretender, 20/1 Henry Box Brown
20/1 Saxon Queen, 25/1 Casting Aspersions
40/1 The Big Reveal.

Novice Handicap Chase 3m

Horses rated 0-97
 
MONTYS SOLDIER

He is a well backed 6yo
Clearly fancied now favourite
But this is his chase debut

Ran his profile
Not entirely convincing

Go back to 2006
Novice Handicap Chases
Run over 2m 6f and more
Any class of race
Any time of year 
Male 6 year olds
Having their chase debuts
With under 7 career starts
Just 1 run in 12 weeks
Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
Return a 0-42 record in them
MONTYS SOLDIER fails this

Similar races
Show horses aged 9 or more
Have only won in small fields
NO DRAMA is rejected aged 9
PRIME PRETENDER is as well

THE SCORPION KING a 6yo
Looks unusually too exposed 
For just 1 run in several months
Can not match him to a winner
TRY THE MONEY is a 6yo
Chase debut and first time out
Not safe enough may need this
WIDE TO WEST might as well

BRIDGET MARY has a chance
But she is a mare up half a mile
Only 16 horses had her profile
Small sample size but none won

Prefer the profile of 3

HOBB'S DELIGHT

WONDER OF THE SEAS

SHILLANAVOGY

SHILLANAVOGY lacks a run
But has the best overall profile
Decided to make him the saver

Selection

£4.50 Each Way WONDER OF THE SEAS 7/1-13/2

£1.00 Win Bet SHILLANAVOGY 8/1-9/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Dundalk 1.15

13/8 Mveve, 2/1 Queens Fury, 6/1 De Novo
10/1 Ardagh Red, 10/1 Highbury See See
14/1 Felicity Smoak, 14/1 Kodi Brown
25/1 Argent Rapide, 100/1 Parnu, Wild Island.

2yo Maiden 7f

Should be a two horse race

Never know when 3 trainers
All had 2 horses in this race
Joseph O'Brien is one of them

MVEVE one of his runners
Has every chance at short odds

DE NOVO is his other runner
Happy to ignore an unraced filly
Who is drawn in stall 10

Go back to 2009
Dundalk 2yo maidens
Unraced fillies
Drawn 10 or higher
Have a nasty 1-110 record
Over this trip they are 0-49

QUEENS FURY is a big player

Too exposed with 7 defeats ?

Possibly but some have won
She has had some excuses
Last time did not have a fit profile 
She went off too fast there too

Ideally I'd like to bet both

MVEVE as a saver around evens
QUEENS FURY a win bet at 3/1
That gets us an even money bet
With cash back on the favourite
May not be able to get the price
So going with a burglary bet instead

Selection

QUEENS FURY 5/2

Each Way







Ffos Las 1.25

5/2 Blue Las, 3/1 Andy Amo,11/2 Jack To Bat
6/1 Jig's Forge, 20/1 Johnny Boy, Kalista Love
20/1  Kate Of The Lodge, 66/1 Hettie Henigan
100/1 Livy's Lad, 100/1 Sheeka Supreme
200/1 Prophet Squeeze, Royal Malinas.

Maiden Hurdle 2m 4f

BLUE LAS is a mare

Comes from bumpers last year

Nice prospect won her last two

But she is facing male horses

Go back to 2007
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f and more
Anytime of the year
Open to both sexes
Mares aged 6 or more
Coming from a bumper
That was not listed or graded
Absent over 27 days
Return a poor 1-145 record
BLUE LAS has this profile

Still have to guess from here

JACK TO BAT is unraced
JIGS FORGE is unraced

No reason why they can't win

Making one of them a saver

ANDY AMO the selection
Following a promising debut
Did well to place over 2m 6f

Unraced hurdlers
Sired by Sageburg
Running over 2m 4f +
Have a 0-33 record
ANY AMO failed that last time
Trying to win on debut over 2m 6f
So upgrading that performance

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet ANDY AMO 3/1-11/4

£2.50 Win Bet JIGS FORGE 3/1






Dundalk 1.50

3/1 Finsceal Annie, The Cola Brasil, 5/1 Golden Days
8/1 Velvet Skies, 9/1 Nikki Swango, 11/1 Circles
12/1 Storm Eric, 16/1 Ascendent, 16/1 Atbay
33/1 Butterfly Bush, Chestnutter, Saxon Kingdom
40/1 Liamo, 50/1 Gianh River.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-65

THE COLA BRASIL is an 8yo

Curious favourite 33 days off

Go back to 2010
Dundalk 7f handicaps
Run in November
Run in this grade
Show horses aged 6 +
Have a 0-117 record

Younger horses
Have dominated here
That questions these

GOLDEN DAYS a 7yo
Who is drawn widest of all

THE COLA BRASIL an 8yo
Without a run in 33 days

CIRCLES has 169 days off
Several have been off months
Opposing all those lacking runs
CHESNUTTER has low figures
STORM ERIC is not ruled out
But did not make the shortlist

NIKKI SWANGO is topweight

Has been struggling
But changed stables recently
Brilliantly placed as topweight
Only 5 runs ago was rated 79
Now topweight rated only 65 
Beaten 22 lengths last time
But it was her stable debut 
Was a far better race than this
she was heavily eased down

VELVET SKIES is a 3yo
Very exposed plenty of weight
But has enough to be shortlisted

FINSCEAL ANNIE a 3yo filly
Down in trip makes the shortlist
Can match her to some winners

Selection

£4.00 Each Way NIKKI SWANGO 13/2-7/1

£2.00 Win Bet FINSCEAL ANNIE 4/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4








Dundalk 3.00

4/1 Tomarlo, 9/2 Vanilla Baby, 6/1 Red Charlie
13/2 Movin And Groovin, 7/1 Sunriseontheboyne
7/1 Undefeatable, 10/1 Annie Lavinia, Roaming Eyes
10/1 Zuzzudio, 12/1 Amber Blossom, 16/1 Sovereign Banter
20/1 Clarabell, 20/1 Kamkwahba, 20/1 Masego.

7f Nursery

Horses rated 0-69

Plenty of deadwood in this

Class 6 Nurseries here
All seem to conform 
To quite a similar pattern

You want 4 or more runs
With just 4 runs the ideal

Need a run within 4 weeks
A horse drawn 12 or lower

Against horses with absences

RED CHARLIE has 58 days off
ROAMING EYES absent 62 days
ZUZZUDIO is also off 62 days
None of the above are a match

ANNIE LAVINIA is not either
With just 4 runs and 47 days off

Every Class 6 nursery
Run at this track before
Any distance
Any time of year
Went to a horse
Who raced within 28 days

Feel one of 5 should win

TOMARLO 3/1

VANILLA BABY 6/1

MOVIN AND GROOVIN 8/1

SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE 11/2

UNDEFEATABLE 7/1

Difficult to split the 5 horses

SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE has 13 runs
Very exposed winning last time out
Down from a mile with a big weight
Might win but a complicated profile

MOVIN AND GROOVIN is a filly
Ran in the same race over a mile
Wide draw in 12 and a 7lbs claimer
One of two others looked safer
But a recent run may help a lot

TOMARLO won 14 days ago
VANILLA BABY finished in 2nd
UNDEFEATABLE finished 3rd

This could be the best trial

The 2022 and 2023 winners
All ran in the same prep race

Both of those winners
Had 4 runs and lost in that trial

VANILLA BABY is a match
But she is drifting quite badly
And she was an outsider last time

UNDEFEATABLE is a match

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet UNDEFEATABLE  7/1

£3.50 Place Bet MOVIN AND GROOVIN 7/4

 
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