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Final Deliberations


Tuesday

Still very early in the week  
Have to say found today hard 
Just one of those tough days
 
Starts with a short price bet
I was opposing the favourite
Annoyingly he just pulled out 
Not the only race we are in
Where a non runner hurts us


Southwell 4.15

Has a powerful draw statistic
I bet nobody in the world knows
I didn't until a few hours ago
Will be fascinating to watch it

Strongly fancied Gosden horse
Well backed into 13/8 fails it
Can the draw stat get him beat ? 
I do hope so but you never know
And I've had to guess a selection


Some decent price horses later
Best described "sporting chances"
This race is clearly one of them

Goodwood 4.05

£4.25 Each Way ARAMRAM 8/1

£1.50 Win Bet RHYTHM N HOOVES 6/1
 
10 runner sprint handicap
The 1st and 2nd favourite's
Both fail long term angles
Can not separate the above
Could easily choose wrong
But it is an interesting watch



The safest bet
 
Would probably be this one



Chepstow 3.48 

SAVANNAH SMILES 7/2-100/30 

Each Way

May not be easy to get the price
Given this is each way under 4/1
I'd want a strong bet to highlight



So going with a no bet day

There are things worth watching

But found it quite a hard day

Not one I want to commit to

I will know when I get there

And not having to overreach








Preview Selections

Chepstow 2.35
Bownder 4/5
Win Bet

Southwell 3.05
£4.50 Each Way Brooke Winder 6/1-13/2 
£1.00 Win Bet River Blackwater 7/1-8/1

Goodwood 3.30
£6.00 Win Bet Havana Gila 6/1
£4.00 Win Bet Where's Clare 6/4

Chepstow 3.48 
Savannah Smiles 7/2-100/30 
Each Way
 
Goodwood 4.05
£4.25 Each Way Aramram 7/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Rhythm N Hooves 6/1
 
Southwell 4.15 
£4.00 Each Way Yosemite Gold  7/1
£2.00 Win Bet Eben Zaabeel 4/1-7/2






Yesterday's Summary   
 
Message finished L L L W P
Could have been a lot worse
And it was shaping up that way
Adace each way was the place
Thought he's won hit the front
Got matched at 1.02 in running
The favourite rallied to get up
Nelson Rose the only winner
Needed that after a poor start
The first 3 races all fell short
Bobby Jones was disappointing
Only silver lining the winner
66/1 no hoper beat the negative
At least we did not suffer twice
Facoulty was beaten in the first
He looks like he wins next time
My chosen 2 from the message
Both failed to deliver a victory
So it was really just a poor day
The winner and place to finish
Meant we clawed a little back








PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
 


Chepstow 2.35

7/4 Bownder, 7/4 Inshad, 13/2 Bracklesham Bay
8/1 Aleishka, 12/1 Good Call, 16/1 Angel Express
20/1 Eye Puzzle, 33/1 Keep Singing.
 
8f Nursery

INSHAD ran yesterday

We opposed him

Failed a generic statistic

Managed to get him beaten
But it was worryingly close

Does running yesterday
Help or hinder him today 
I would have thought help

My angles disagree
As he is also up in distance
He fails another generic today

Go back to 2004
Every Nursery over 8f
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses from 7f or shorter
Running within 1-2-3-4 days
Return a 0-22 record
INSHAD 23rd to try this

Not sure how strong this is

But has to be a big concern

Don't normally like opposing
Horses with very recent runs
But going with the main danger

INSHAD now a non runner

Left us with a short price bet

Selection

BOWNDER 4/5

Win Bet








Southwell 3.05

9/4 Saytarr, 4/1 Ellomate, 8/1 Fallen Soldier
8/1 River Blackwater, 10/1 Brooke Winder
10/1 Emporess 12/1 Gold Black, 16/1 Layaali
16/1 Water Music, 20/1 Deal Maker
20/1 Indy's Angel, Monticristo Boy

6f Nursery

Horses rated 0-76
 
SAYTARR is drawn 12

He looks to be improving
Has fitness and momentum

Can you win drawn 12 of 12 ?
Not sure but my draw stats
Show 2 year olds over 6f here
Drawn in stalls 1-2-3-4
Stuggled in the last 4 years
Higher draws have done best
So I would argue yes you can

Had a run 5 days ago on heavy
That may or may not help him
The race could come too soon
Or give him a fitness advantage 

ELLOMATE must be respected
But doesn't stand out on figures

SAYTARR is a non runner

Have to find a replacement

RIVER BLACKWATER  

Finished 4th last time
That was her nursery debut
Racing Post view suggests
"Nothing to get excited about"

Maybe not
But good luck winning at Leicester
Drawn 8 of 8 on you handicap debut

There is weakness in her profile
She is a filly up in trip 34 days off
But feel she is still a player here

BROOKE WINDER

Similar to River Blackwater
In that his handicap debut
Was drawn in the widest stall
On a track that favours low numbers

Both of these can be upgraded
Felt they both shaped very well


Selection

£4.50 Each Way BROOKE WINDER 6/1-13/2
 
£1.00 Win Bet RIVER BLACKWATER 7/1-8/1




Goodwood 3.30

5/2 Where's Clare, 3/1 Lady Luzon, 11/2 Pouting
6/1 Leyhaimur, 13/2 Havana Gila, 8/1 Jakarta
14/1 Enigmatic Princess
 
Fillies Nursery 6f

This races are rare

Only run September to November

They all show
 
Horses from 5f races
More than 5 career runs
From a non pattern race
Have a 0-58 record in them
LADY LUZON fails this angle
Quite exposed going up in trip

She is also going up in class
LEYHAIMUR does the same
She isn't running class 4 figures
ENIGMATIC PRINCESS likewise

JAKARTA is down in distance
Not first choice but no negative

WHERE'S CLARE is topweight

Taking her figures last time out
She is comfortably clear of these
Main downside is the 6/4 price
Going to make her the saver bet

POUTING is an option
No strong profile objections

HAVANA GILA has done more
3 run ago in the Empress Stakes
Was stuck out wide badly drawn
She went to Glorious Goodwood
Was badly draw in a conditions race
WHERE'S CLARE met her that day
Finished ahead both were badly drawn
HAVANA GILA was a shorter price 

Both have ran ran well since then
She has a chance of reversing form

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet HAVANA GILA 6/1

£4.00 Win Bet WHERE'S CLARE 6/4







Chepstow 3.48

15/8 Charlie Mason, 7/2 Savannah Smiles, 9/2 Stalingrad
5/1 Razzam, 12/1 El Montejean, 12/1 Umming N' Ahing
14/1 Diamond Cottage, 20/1 Roody Toody.
 
6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-68

CHARLIE MASON was favourite

STALINGRAD has replaced him

Not convinced about either
CHARLIE MASON is a 3yo
Profile ok he could easily win
Just not many his age win here
I would have to say no negative

STALINGRAD is the favourite
Despite being a 7yo off 372 days

Last August as a 6 year old 
He won here with 80 days off
Don't see that being too relevant
Does not prove that much at all

Looked at similar races
The odd horse as old as him
Have won with long absences
But he also has 9st 11lbs 

Go back to 1997
July to November
6f handicaps
Any class of race
Horses aged 7 or more
Absent over 121 days
Carrying 9st 6lbs or more
Return a 0-58 record
STALINGRAD has this profile

DOAMOND COTTAGE a mare
Does not offer enough to select

UMMING N AHING ran 3 days ago
Beaten 75 lengths in a hurdle race
Quick return to a 6f sprint handicap
Hardly seems ideal just 3 days later
ROODY TOODY is a 3 year old
Happy to avoid with 304 days off

RAZZAM is topweight
Class horse could easily win

But just 2 runs in 6 months
Looked at similar 4 year olds
With over 14 career starts
Under 3 runs in 6 months
Found a 0-26 record in them

Thats why I'm going this way

Selection

SAVANNAH SMILES 7/2-100/30

Each Way






Goodwood 4.05

5/2 Durham Castle, 6/1 Many A Star
6/1 Rhythm N Hooves, 13/2 Indian Creak, 7/1 Alcazan
7/1  Aramram, 10/1 Tiger Crusade, 11/1 Mister Bluebird
16/1 Snuggle, 33/1 Atalanta's Boy.

6f Handicap

Horses rated 0-84

DURHAM CASTLE has 3 runs

Easily the least experienced
His type have not done well here

Go back to 2002
Goodwood
Handicaps over 6f
Open to all ages
Any class of race
Any time of year
3 year olds
Under 5 runs are 1-46
Under 4 runs are 0-30
 DURHAM CASTLE has this profile

Not a big field
So may be able to pull it off
He was an expensive horse
But vulnerable on his profile

Opposing the following

ALCAZAN drawn widest of all
 
With so many with recent runs
Going to oppose those without

ATALANTA'S BOY off 81 days
SNUGGLE absent 70 days

MISTER BLUEBIRD a 6yo
Should not win on recent figures

TIGER CASTLE an exposed 7yo
Faces 9st 10lbs and 33 days off
Hard to make him the first choice

INDIAN CREEK is a 7yo
Just wanted more last time
Given this is just 10 days later

MANY A STAR is topweight

Two observations with  him
Similar races here in September

No horses have won
When aged 7 or older
When drawn 7 or higher

Go back to 1997
Goodwood
6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Carrying 9st 10lbs or more
Return a 0-71 record in them
MANY A STAR fails this
TIGER CASTLE does as well

On those angles

Going to have to oppose him

Split staking this race

Selection

£4.25 Each Way ARAMRAM 7/1

£1.50 Win Bet RHYTHM N HOOVES 6/1






Southwell 4.15

2/1 Shader, 4/1 Eben Zaabeel, 5/1 King's Reign
8/1 Don Simon, Yosemite Gold, 10/1 Wiltshire Wonder
12/1 Falsetto, Famous Shoes, 16/1 Chilli Zing
33/1 Sydney Secret, 100/1 Rained Off
100/1 Winding Road, 200/1 Altanera
200/1 Samatian.
 
3yo Novice 12f 

SHADER has ran once
Understandable favourite
John Gosden Juddmonte colt
But faces plenty of opposition
And will stall 1 be a problem
Had no idea before looking
But my draw stats are clear

Go back to 2001
Southwell
Every 12f race
With over 9 runners
Horses drawn in stall 1
With under 10 runs 
Have a 0-110 record 

SHADER fails this 0-110 draw stat

No spelling mistakes it is 0-110

Shocked me a bit but it's there

So going to take him on here

The problem is the alternative
More have a chance than ideal
DON SIMON included in that
Not for me on stable or profile

KING'S REIGN is hard to read
Without a run in over 5 months
Big stable so must be respected
But stall 2 may not be helpful

Messing around with the draw

Go back to 2001
Every Southwell race
Run over 10f and more
With over 9 runners 
Horses under 4 years old
Absent more than 60 days
Drawn 1 are 0-28
Drawn 2 are 0-22

KING'S REIGN drawn 2
Does fail that 0-22 draw stat

Going in this direction

Selection

£4.00 Each Way YOSEMITE GOLD  7/1

£2.00 Win Bet EBEN ZAABEEL 4/1-7/2

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