Mathematician 4851
Sunday Sept 8th

7 Previews  
0 Account Bet 
  

No Account Bet  




Favourite Bet

York 4.35
£2.50 Each Way Northern Spirit 16/1-14/1
£2.50 Each Way It Just Takes Time 16/1-14/1 
1/5 Odds  
1-2-3-4-5 (6)





Final Deliberations


York dominated message

Covered all 7 races there

Not an easy card to get right
Surprised there's little history
Expected more than there is

Rain is also in play later today
Not clear how much to expect
So plenty of known unknowns
But done my best in each race



Coming up to 10am

See the drip drip of non runners

Card could look much different
If this continues and rain comes

So not having any strong bet

Having a pragmatic favourite bet

In a race offering decent prices

And less likely to collapse later





Favourite Bet


York 4.35

£2.50 Each Way NORTHERN SPIRIT 16/1-14/1 

£2.50 Each Way IT JUST TAKES TIME 16/1-14/1 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5 (6)







Preview Selections

 
York 1.40 
Windlord 11/8-6/4
Win Bet

York 2.15
£5.00 Win Bet Make It Easy 12/1
£5.00 Place Bet Irish Nectar 4/5-10/11

York 2.50 
Brighton Boy 15/8-7/4 
Win Bet 

York 3.25
£8.00 Win Bet Apiarist 11/4
£2.00 Win Bet Markoon 7/2 

York 4.00      
£4.00 Each Way Marine Wave 9/1-10/1
£2.00 Win Bet Quinault 7/2-100/30

York 4.35
£2.50 Each Way Northern Spirit 16/1-14/1 
£2.50 Each Way It Just Takes Time 16/1-14/1 
1/5 Odds  
1-2-3-4-5 (6)

York 5.10
Ey Up Its The Boss 14/1-12/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5






Yesterday's Summary    
  
Expected better yesterday
Not necessarily with the bet
But did not have many aces
Two Tribes was part of that
In his race against negatives
But he was the baby in that
And did not cope very well
The track and the conditions
Maybe too much for a 3yo
And that's why I think he lost
Heathcliff finished only 2nd
So the account bet was beat
He was a little unlucky there
Other horses got better rides
The winner was behind him
So don't feel we were robbed
Just a tight tactical handicap
Ran well but not quite enough
Had some saver bets winning
Holloway Boy one of those
Talked myself out of a win bet
American Affair got his place
Epic Poet returned our stakes
Spangled Mac was a big price
But I fancied him quite a lot
Not sure he was there to win
Lion's Pride finished only 2nd
Got beat by a top class horse
The Vultar split stake unlucky
Thought that was well staked
Almost landed a decent win
But one horse was too good
Overall message didn't deliver
Tried it's best but found out






PROFILES & PREVIEWS





York 1.40

4/5 Shah, 15/8 Windlord, 14/1 Harswell Ruby
14/1 Off Spin, Spirit Of Murray, 25/1 Springbok
33/1 Lever Up, 40/1 Betelgeuse, 100/1 U S Grant

2yo Novice 8f

Two horses dominate  
Both have ran twice

SHAH sets the standard 
WINDLORD behind him

But hard to like the others
Well behind on the figures

HARSWELL RUBY is a filly
Comes from a smaller stable
Started 50/1 on her first run
OFF SPIN was 40/1 on his   
SPIRIT OF MURRAY unraced 
Hard to see past the front pair

Decision time

If either horse was 7/4
In Betfairs each way market
Than I'd be tempted each way

SHAH has the numbers
He also has the widest draw
This may or may not matter

Go back to 1997
York 8f races
With under 10 runners
Any kind of race
Any time of year
Horses with under 7 runs
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Have a 0-24 record in them
SHAH will be 25th to try
 
Watched his race here last time
Just looked on the smaller side
Don't like that when his main rival
A big strapping Juddmonte colt

WINDLORD has 65 days off
Have to rely on his trainer there
But prefer him of the main two
But it is little more than a hunch

Selection

WINDLORD 11/8

Win Bet







York 2.15

11/2 Law Of Average, 8/1 Cover Point, 8/1 Dorney Lake
9/1 Grandlad, Mon Na Slieve, 10/1 Duran, 10/1 Fidelius
10/1 Make It Easy, 11/1 Curious Rover, Irish Nectar
14/1 Cloud King, 14/1 Ticktyboo, 14/1 Vince L'Amour
16/1 Harvanna, 25/1 Mini Magna, 33/1 Monks Dream.

3yo Handicap 5f

Horses rated 0-90

Not much history in this

LAW OF AVERAGE   
He has the most weight
He has the highest draw
Neither of those welcome 
 
Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Under 19 runners
Horses absent over 7 weeks
Drawn in stall 11 or higher
Have a 0-67 record in them
MON NA SLIEVE fails this
Non runners may kill this stat
But may not the next statistic

Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Under 19 runners
Horses absent over 35 days
Carrying 9st or more weight
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Have a 0-91 record in them
MON NA SLIEVE fails this
GRANDLAD also fails this

TICKYTBOO is bottomweight
May lack the class to take this
MINI MAGNA out of his depth
MONKS DREAM is beatable
HARVANNA has a big weight
Did not do enough last time

Similar races show
Most winners went up in class

Horses failing in a higher grade
Have struggled dropping down

Go back to 2009
July to November
3yo Handicaps (5f)
Class 2-3-4 races
Horses from Class 2 races
Beaten over 7 lengths in them
Have a 0-68 record
The following all fail this

HARVANNA 
MONKS DREAM
CURIOUS ROVER

VINCE L'AMOUR rejected
Would not win on last 2 runs
CLOUD KING is up in grade
Not for me with 38 days off
DURAN untested in this grade
Looks more of a class 4 horse

COVER POINT has 9 runs
Missed out from the shortlist
Because he is drawn in stall 15
Just a bit too high for comfort
When you factor 38 days off

Go back to 1997
York 5f handicaps
Under 17 runners
Horses absent over 22 days
Drawn 14 or higher are 1-58
COVER POINT fails this
FIDELIUS is drawn in 14
Bit high and not convinced

Possibles
 
DORNEY LAKE has 6 runs
Respected from Gosden's
But could be better over 6f
Trip and ground are unclear
Expecting him to get a place

MAKE IT EASY is a filly
Quite exposed with 15 runs 
A big field of lighter raced males
My angles say her type are fine
As long as they have recent runs
She does badly drawn at Chester
In two of her previous 3 races
She has had impossible draws
My worry she's been operating
In a grade lower than this one
But she may well be improving
Should have won at Bath recently
Last time out was a career best
With improvement she could win

IRISH NECTAR favourite
He has been well supported
Only gripe would be stall 1
Can and has been done here
But I see it as a slight negative
 
Prefer the split stake bet most

IRISH NECTAR a place saver

Two options for the win bet

DORNEY LAKE was one

MAKE IT EASY twice the price
And has a fitter profile than him


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet MAKE IT EASY 12/1

£5.00 Place Bet IRISH NECTAR 4/5-10/11
 






York 2.50

9/4 Yes I'm Mali, 7/2 Brighton Boy
5/1 Mythical Composer, 7/1 Teej A, 9/1 Sex On Fire
11/1 End Of Story, 14/1 Atomic Mass, 16/1 Baileys Jubilation
16/1 Final Angel

6f Nursery

Starting with a draw angle
Which involves absences

Go back to 1997
York 6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
With under 13 runners
Horses absent over 34 days
Drawn in stall 8 or higher
Return a 0-32 record in them
Two horses fail this angle

TEEJ A
MYTHICAL COMPOSER

FINAL ANGEL a filly
Has a difficult 58 day break
Least experienced horse too
ATOMIC MASS bottomweight
Would not be the safest choice
BAILEYS JUBILATION a filly
Not first choice from a 5f race
END OF STORY unorthodox
Drops down from a listed race
Ony 4 runs and 65 days absence
Can not match him to a winner

SEX ON FIRE is topweight
Finished only 13th here last time out
Blew the start and the chips fell badly  
Did not shape like a winner there

YES I'M MALI won here last time
That was in a class 2 handicap
Horses who had a similar profile
Followed up with 5 or more runs
Those with 4 like him were 0-17

BRIGHTON BOY is interesting
Favourite for a Goodwood race
But had an impossible draw there
First choice but not a great price

Selection

BRIGHTON BOY 15/8-7/4

Win Bet 







York 3.25

7/2 Markoon, 7/2  Old Cock, 9/2 Amsterdam
6/1 Apiarist, 13/2 Harvard Sound, 8/1 Zain Blue
12/1 Marcella

3yo Handicap (8f)

Horses rated 0-94

MARKOON is topweight

Comes here after disappointing
When going up in trip last time
No shame in his Newbury defeat
Hot race he was inexperienced
Interesting he was only 13/8 there

3yo Handicaps (8f)
Class 2-3-4 races
Horses from 10f races
Under 5 career starts
Running within 2 months
Carrying 9st 8lbs or more
Have a 0-17 record
Not many tried none won
MARKOON has this profile

That angle just hints
He has plenty of weight

HARVARD SOUND has 3 runs
Least experienced of them all
Did not see enough positives
AMSTERDAM is bottomweight
Lowest rated and widest draw
MARCELLA a filly off 79 days
Has her work cut out to take this

OLD COCK has won 3 this year
Now he faces a career high mark
He's raced once in 69 days now
In the same period of time he has 

APIARIST has raced 3 times

ZAIN BLUE has ran 3 times

And both get weight from him

They ran in the same race

APIARIST ran a great race
Badly drawn in stall 18 there
Raced in last finished in 4th

ZAIN BLUE just behind her
He just looks a bit undersized 
That put me off him a little
Considered him as the saver
But going with the Haggas horse

HARVARD SOUND a non runner 

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet APIARIST 11/4

£2.00 Win Bet MARKOON 7/2






York 4.00
 
4/1 Quinault, 6/1 Purosangue, 7/1 Azure Blue
7/1 Korker, 8/1 Rage Of Bamby, Twilight Calls
9/1 Frost At Dawn, Marine Wave, 10/1 Significantly
16/1 Night Raider, 16/1  Pink Crystal
25/1 Fivethousandtoone.
  
Garrowby Stakes

Listed race 6f
 
12 Past renewals
 
The last 10 winners
All ran in the previous 29 days

TWILIGHT CALLS off 50 days

SIGNIFICANTLY off 127 days 

Neither would be first choice
They are the oldest horses in this
 
KORKER has 43 days off
Knocks points off his profile
Horses aged 4 or more
Beaten in a handicap last time
Have a 0-17 record in this race
KORKER is the 18th to try

PUROSANGUE has 36 days off
Plenty to prove drawn in stall 11

All 12 past winners
Came from stalls 1-2-3-4

The past 3yo winners of this 

Were all drawn lower
All had shorter absences
Were all lighter raced too 
PUROSANGUE is rejected

NIGHT RAIDER is rejected
Coming from the widest stall 
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
Does not have enough class

FROST AT DAWN a 3yo filly
Has raced just once in 162 days
She looks more than underraced 

PINK CRYSTAL a 4yo filly
FIVETHOUSANDTOONE
 
AZURE BLUE is an older mare
She is coming up from a 5f race
Horses from 5f are just 1-23
That winner won last time out
Her problem may be compounded
By having just the 1 run in 78 days

Past renewals show
Horses with just 1 run
In the previous 2 months
Have a 0-32 record in this
The following all fail this

AZURE BLUE  
FROST AT DAWN
NIGHT RAIDER  
PUROSANGUE
TWILIGHT CALLS

PINK CRYSTAL is a 5yo mare
She has raced 3 times this year
Made her a negative 2 runs ago
Looks like she is running fit
Not sure she did enough last time
Worried she may have other targets
She just misses out on the staking

Thought this was interesting

Go back to 2007

Listed and Group races
Run over 6f all year round
Open to both sexes

Mares aged 5 or more
Over 10 career starts
Under 9 runs in 12 months
Return a 0-77 record in them
The following both fail this
PINK CRYSTAL
AZURE BLUE 

RAGE OF BAMBY is 4 years old
Behind Marine Wave at Pontefract
But she had an unfit profile there
She is entitled to finish a bit closer
But big ask to reverse that form


Shortlisting two
 
QUINAULT won the Hopeful stakes
The 2014 2015 2018 winners of this
All came from the same race as him

MARINE WAVE won at Pontefract
Same race as the 2012 -2022 winners
She is running career bests right now

Selection 

£4.00 Each Way MARINE WAVE 9/1-10/1

£2.00 Win Bet QUINAULT 7/2-100/30






York 4.35

9/2 Dance And Romance, 10/1 It Just Takes Time
11/1 Muscika, 12/1 Modern Times, 12/1 Northern Spirit
12/1 Wreck It Ryley, 14/1 Dickieburd, 14/1 Fantasy Master
14/1 Flying Fletcher, Huddle Up, Late Arrival, Lil Guff
14/1 Roundhay Park, 16/1 Evocative Spark, Minnesota Lad
16/1 The Caltonian, 20/1 Equiano Springs, 25/1 Abate
25/1 Maxi Boy, 25/1 Reigning Profit, 25/1 Travis
40/1 Project Dante.

6f handicap

Horses rated 0-81

Class 4 race

No history to this race

Thats a problem really

Given how intense it is

DANCE AND ROMANCE a 3yo
Smells fancied but is drawn in 19

Go back to 1997
York 6f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Under 7 career starts
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-112 record
DANCE AND ROMANCE fails this

Horses aged 3
Absent more than 28 days
Drawn 17 or higher are 0-38
DANCE AND ROMANCE fails

DANCE AND ROMANCE 
Clear weakness in her draw

Happy to avoid the horses
Who have the highest draws

LIL GUFF
WRECK IT RYLEY
MINNESOTA LAD
THE CALTONIAN

LIL GUFF drawn 21
She is a mare up in trip too

Go back to 1997
York 6f handicaps
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 9 or older
Absent more than 8 days
Have a 0-51 record in them
The following fail this

MUSCIKA
EQUIANO SPRINGS
ROUNDHAY PARK

Same sample of races 
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 8 days
Carrying 9st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-50 record in them
The following all fail this

ROUNDHAY PARK
ABATE

MAXI WAY is scoring low
TRAVIS looks short on class

FLYING FLETCHER a 3yo
Has far to long an absence

Opposing these from 5f races
REIGNING PROFIT
PROJECT DANTE
FANTASY MASTER

HUDDLE UP could go well

But he is 6 years old
Lowest rated horse in this
Drawn in stall 1 as well

Go back to 2000
York 6f handicaps
More than 10 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent over 7 days
Drawn 1-2-3 are 0-137
HUDDLE UP has this profile

Horses aged 5 or more
More than 18 career runs
Absent over 15 days
Drawn 1-2-3
Have a 0-124 record
EVOCATIVE SPARK fails this

MODERN TIMES is a 3yo
Bits and pieces to like about him

But he is 3 years old
He only has 6 career runs
And carries 9st 10lbs

This is quite interesting

Go back to 1997
York 6f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year

Horses aged 3
Under 8 career starts
Carrying 9st or more
Have a 0-34 record in them
The following all fail this

MODERN TIMES
FLYING FLETCHER
DANCE AND ROMANCE

LATE ARRIVAL is a 7yo
Won in a lower grade last time
Asking a lot to follow that up

DICKIEBIRD is a 4yo

Very exposed with 30 runs
No run in the last 23 days
Big weight of 9st 10lbs
Combination of these factors
May just count against him


Shortlisting two

IT JUST TAKES TIME
NORTHERN SPIRIT

Both have fit profiles

Good recent runs

Nice draws as well

And look generous prices
 
Selection

£2.50 Each Way NORTHERN SPIRIT 16/1-14/1 

£2.50 Each Way IT JUST TAKES TIME 16/1-14/1 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5 (6)



 

York 5.10

13/2 Young Fire, 8/1 Glistening Nights
8/1 Humble Spark 9/1 Ey Up Its The Boss, 9/1 Poet's Dawn, 
10/1 Highwaygrey, Unplugged, 11/1 Financer, 12/1 Royal Blaze
12/1 Star Start, 14/1 Fourofakind, 16/1 Sisterandbrother
16/1 Tele Red, 25/1 Continuance, 25/1 Princess Niyla
33/1 Bass Player, 33/1 Jumeira Vision, 33/1 Sol Cayo.

10f Handicap

Amateur Jockeys

No history to this race
 
Go back to 2006
York 10f Handicaps
Horses with over 15 runs
Drawn in stall 15 or higher
Have a 0-170 record in them
The following horses fail this

FOUROFAKIND
POET'S DAWN
JUMEIRA VISION

SOL CAYO is underraced
BASY PLAYER is beatable

CONTINUANCE is a 3yo
Just 1 run in 80 days a worry
I would see him as underaced

PRINCESS NYLA is a filly
Hard to see her winning this
On her last couple of runs

UNPLUGGED is an 8yo

Rather not have 45 days off
Rather not have stall 15 either

Go back to 1997
York 10f races
Horses aged 8 or more
Drawn in stall 9 or higher
Have a 0-45 record in them
UNPLUGGED has this profile 
POET'S DAWN does as well

This is quite interesting

Go back to 1997
York races
July to November
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 8 or more
Absent more than 41 days
Return a 0-137 record
None won after June
UNPLUGGED fails this

HIGHWAYGREY is an 8yo
Always worth considering
Just feel he is difficult to trust
In races with large numbers

His career record so far
In fields of 9 or more 1-28
In fields of 13 or more 0-17

YOUNG FIRE is similar
His record in fields of 12 or more
Stands at a winless 0-33 so far 
Otherwise he does have positives

TELE RED is drawn 16
Acceptable with non runners
But he is a 7 year old
Others have fitter profiles

That may be the key here

From the remaining runners

Runs in the last 5 weeks

4 Ey Up Its The Boss
3 Star Start
2 Financer
2 Royal Blaze
2 Glistening Nights
1 Humble Spark
1 Tele Red
1 Sisterandbrother
 
EY UP IT'S THE BOSS

Just about the fittest profile 


Selection

EY UP IT'S THE BOSS 14/1-12/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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