7 Previews
0 Account Bet  
  

No Account Bet 





Favourite Bet  

York 5.20

£4.50 Each Way Vince L'Amour 9/1-10/1

£1.00 Win Bet Hedge Fund 7/1-8/1 

1/5 Odds 

1-2-3-4-5





Final Deliberations


Far too many meetings 
Feels a criminal waste

7 previews

4 York
2 Newbury
1 Newmarket

Some of the other tracks
Haven't had time to look
Tomorrow is just as bad
  
Ridiculous schedule today
It's chewed and spat me out

So it is damage limitation
Expect to take punishment
We are likely to suffer a bit

But if there is any kind of win

It could be in just 1 selection

With small stakes in the rest

That selection is this one




York 5.20

£4.50 Each Way VINCE L'AMOUR 10/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet HEDGE FUND 8/1-7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5







Preview Selections


York 2.15
£8.00 Win Bet Running Queen 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet Magic Mild 8/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Seraphim Angel 8/1

York 2.45
Loyal Touch 8/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

Newmarket 2.53
Creative Story 4/5
Win Bet

Newbury 3.00
£5.00 Win Bet Mr Chaplin 5/1-11/2
£5.00 Place Bet Diligently 4/5-8/11

Newbury 3.30
£4.00 Each Way Night Lark 8/1-15/2
£2.00 Win Bet Stanage 9/2

York 4.45
Eldrickjones 13/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4-5

York 5.20
£4.50 Each Way Vince L'Amour 9/1-10/1
£1.00 Win Bet Hedge Fund 7/1-8/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4-5






Yesterday's Summary       
 
Finished with just 5 previews
Had a couple of small winners
Looking For Lynda came 2nd
Collected twice as a saver won
Just about doubled our money
The Dante bet a disappointment
From those two favourite bets
We finished about level overall
Same with the 2 Limerick bets
Kailasa could only manage 2nd
Cruden won at a generous price
Wasn't much in the day at close




PROFILES & PREVIEWS    



York 2.15

4/1 Running Queen, 9/2 It Ain't Two
11/2 Seraphim Angel 13/2 Ruby's Profit
8/1 Magic Mild 11/1 Betty Clover, 12/1 Kaadi
12/1 Miss Lamai, 16/1 Invincible Annice, Jayvee
20/1 Baileys Jubilation, 33/1 Call Me Harswell
33/1 Glorious Kitty, 33/1 Sybaris Jewel
50/1 Lady Dorchester.
 
Marygate Fillies' Stakes

Listed race 2yo fillies
 
Higher the draw
Bigger the worry
  
York 5f races
Since 1997 
Horses aged 2
Drawn 13 or higher
Have a 0-41 record

IT AIN'T TWO is drawn 16
Not going to risk her that high
Trainer seems very confident
But not expensive drawn high
Would rather look elsewhere
  
KAADI is drawn in stall 13
Not ideal no 2yo has won
Drawn as high in many years

RUBY'S PROFIT drawn 12
Escapes the earlier draw stat
But not this connected angle

York 5f races
Since 1997 
Horses aged 2
Under 2 career runs
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-22 record
RUBY'S PROFIT fails this
But there is a non runner

Still leaves a few likeable sorts
BETTY CLOVER is a positive
Perhaps a bit too stoutly bred 

MAGIC MILD is interesting
Was badly drawn on her debut

SERAPHIM ANGEL has 2 runs
Maybe helpful a recent race too
Won the Lily Agnes at Chester
Which looked a weaker renewal
 
RUNNING QUEEN has 2 runs
The last 12 days ago at Salisbury
Two past winners prepped there

Had 4 I liked

Hard to throw one under the bus

Came down to this strategy

Selection
 
£8.00 Win Bet RUNNING QUEEN 5/1

£1.00 Win Bet MAGIC MILD 8/1 

£1.00 Win Bet SERAPHIM ANGEL8/1






York 2.45

7/2 Botanical, 13/2 Theoryofeverything
7/1 Majestic, 8/1 Loyal Touch, 9/1 Reach
12/1 Qaasid, Qitaal, 14/1 Barley, Eilean Dubh
14/1 Stressfree, 16/1 Andaleep, 25/1 Epic Poet
25/1 King's Code, Theme Park, 40/1 Kitsune Power
40/1 Lord Protector.

10f Handicap

Have to start with the draw

A combination draw statistic
That will be worth watching

Go back to 1997
York 10f races
Any kind of race
Any class of race
Any time of year
With under 18 runners

Horses with over 10 runs
Drawn in  stall 14 or higher
Have a 0-79 record in them
The following horses fail

QAASID
BARLEY
KITSUNE POWER

The last 25 winners
Were all rated 85 or more

Horses rated 84 or lower
Have a 0-18 record in this
QAASID fails this rated 84
BARLEY is rated just 79
KITSUNE POWER is too

THEME PARK rated only 84
Also comes up 3f in distance

Go back to 2000
Horses from 8f or shorter
Running within 24 days
Have a 0-36 record in this
THEME PARK fails this
EILEAN DUBH does too

ANDALEEP is an 8 year old
Older than the past 25 winners 
LORD PROTECTOR is wrong

REACH has 266 days absence
Hard to like  as an older mare
 
Go back to 1997
York handicaps
Open to both sexes 
Any distance
Any class of race
Any time of year
Mares aged 5 or more
Absent more than 37 days
Have a 0-81 record in them
REACH is the 82nd to try

EPIC POET is a 5 year old
Not first choice first time out
When also carries topweight
KING'S CODE lacks positives
Not convinced stall 1 helps
 
STRESSFREE is a 4yo
Unplaced in a Class 4 last time
This race is 2 grades higher 
Never raced in this class before

QITAAL is 5 years old
Bit unorthodox with just 7 runs
Especially with a recent race

Go back to 2001
April May June
Class 2 handicaps
Run over a mile or more
With over 6 runners
Horses aged 5
Under 8 career runs
Running within 18 days
Have a 0-60 record in them
QITAAL fails this statistic

Horses aged 4
First time out this year
Have a strong record
With under 12 runs
BOTANICAL does this
But the winning 4yo's
With fewer than 11 runs
Did have 9st 4lbs or less
He has 9st 8lbs weight

LOYAL TOUCH is a 4yo
Shortlistable on his last run
Second at Chester 8 days ago
This is a grade higher though
Will this race come too soon ?

THEORYOFEVERYTHING 
Solid profile an unexposed 4yo
With a pretty good recent run 

MAJESTIC is also a positive
His mark of 91 is manageable

Hard to split

BOTANICAL may be sexy
But going to drop him here
The weight and the absence
Combined with the draw

Not sure how eccentric this is

But every handicap here
Since 1997 over any distance
Any class and time of year
With more than 7 runners

Horses under 5
Absent over 66 days
Carrying 9st 4lbs or more
Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
Have a 0-36 record 
BOTANICAL has this profile

Could be meaningless
But he is too short really

Go back to 2007

Thats 16 renewals

Horses with under 16 runs
Won 14 of the last 16 renewals

Horses with over 15 runs
Absent more than just 5 days
Have a 1-97 record since 2007

Several exposed types fail this

MAJESTIC is one of them
EILEAN DUBH is another

If we stay with this pattern
Prefering the less exposed 
This may be the best option

Selection

LOYAL TOUCH 8/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5






Newmarket 2.53

5/4 Creative Story, 3/1 T'Challa, 6/1 Usuario Amigo
8/1 Kilt, 12/1 Modern Times, 14/1 Approved Star
16/1 Lord Of Love, 25/1 Skipper, Warriors Dream
33/1 Escape Act, 50/1 On Locust Point, 100/1 Fight Back
100/1 Mini Punter, 150/1 Disquietude
500/1 Barafundle Bay.
 
2yo Novice (8f)

CREATIVE STORY

Second in both his races so far

Nothing wrong with his debut
Beaten by an experienced horse
Who has since then won again 
 
Second at Newmarket last time
Started favourite drawn 12 of 12
Tough draw did not do much wrong

Should be able to finally win

Better drawn and up in distance

Selection
 
CREATIVE STORY 4/5

Win Bet





   

Newbury 3.00

 9/4 Diligently, 3/1 King Of Bears, 5/1 Jouncy
10/1 Defence Missile, Mr Chaplin, 12/1 Khafiz
14/1 Wild Clary, 16/1 Haazeez, 20/1 Carderock
20/1 Deauville Blue, Moonjid, 25/1 Pappa Louis
33/1 Middleton View, 66/1 Mapledurham
66/1 Mirabeau, 66/1 Organ,  66/1Valsharah
100/1 Goodwood Mogul, 100/1 It's Life
100/1 Muy Muy Loco.

2yo Maiden 6f

The market leaders

Have nasty looking draws

KING OF BEARS is unraced
Tries to win this from stall 19

Go back to 2004
Newbury 6f races
Any time of year
Unraced horses
Drawn 16 or higher
Have a 0-37 record

DILIGENTLY is drawn 20 of 20

Go back to 2002
Newbury 6f races
Any time of year
Horses with under 5 runs
Drawn 19 of higher
Have not won any (0-16)
DILIGENTLY fails this
KODI BEAR does as well

Have to guess from here

MR CHAPLIN has a run
Good draw looks obvious 
But has he enough ability ?
Hard to know enough here
Doubt he is the best horse

I think the smart play

Is the following win/place

DILIGENTLY to place

Tough ask to win drawn 20

But probably the best horse

Enough ability to get a place 


Selection

£5.00 Win Bet MR CHAPLIN 6/1-11/2

£5.00 Place Bet DILIGENTLY 4/5-8/11





Newbury 3.30

5/2 Jarraaf, 7/2 Stanage, 4/1 Mount Teide
10/1 Night Lark, 12/1 Bullet Point, 16/1 Lyraisa
16/1 Sarmiento Power, 20/1 Al Kuthban
20/1 Ever Driven 20/1 Germanic, Sheila's Paradise
25/1 Perennial, 25/1 Ten Pounds, 25/1 Zenzic
50/1 Glam Squad, Monkey Island, 66/1 Alshimali
100/1 Ash Wednesday, C'Mon Pompey, Maryanne.

3yo Novice 7f

JARRAAF has raced once
That was last year on sand
Looks a pretty smart prospect
But he will need to be to win
Especially when he is drawn 17

Go back to 1997
Newbury 7f races
Any kind of race
Any time of year
Horses drawn 16 or higher
Absent more than 83 days
Have a winless 0-40 record
JARRAAF is 41st to try this

May not be his only problem

If you look at his sire Zoustar

His runners over 7f or more
With under 2 career starts
Absent over 39 days are 0-11
Not a great stat but none won

On a grade 1 track in a big field
Feel inclined to take him on
Even if it requires guesswork

MOUNT TEIDE has 1 run

Has an obvious chance 

STANAGE from John Gosden

Also ran a promising debut
On ground he probably disliked

JARRAAF will be smart
Works with the horse at home
Who was 5th in the 2000 guineas  
So don't want a win and saver bet

NIGHT LARK has had a run
Promising and unlucky that day

The percentage bet maybe this

Selection

£4.00 Each Way NIGHT LARK 8/1-15/2

£2.00 Win Bet STANAGE 9/2





York 4.45

13/2 Eldrickjones, 8/1 Carolus Magnus, 8/1 Danzan
9/1 Challet, 9/1 Eligible, 9/1 Red Mirage, Tropez Power
10/1 Another Investment, 11/1 Riot, 12/1 Gincident
12/1 How Impressive, 14/1 Craven, 14/1 Lahab
14/1 The Cookstown Cafu, Hectic, 25/1 Desert Falcon
33/1 Al Marmar, 33/1 Animate, 33/1 Bass Player
33/1  Lyndon B.

7f Handicap

Of all the festival handicaps
This is one of the hardest
As it is only a class 4 race
With a very limited history

Opposing the high draws
Several ways of displaying
Will try this combo angle

Go back to 2004
York 7f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses drawn 16 or higher
Carrying 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-66 record in them
The following all fail this

CAROLUS MAGNUS
DESERT FALCON
RIOT
GINCIDENT
ANIMATE
 
Go back to 2000
York 7f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 7 or more
Drawn 13 of higher
Have a 0-81 record
The following all fail this

LYNDON B
RIOT
ELIGIBLE

DANZAN is rejected
Don't want a 9yo up in trip
HECTIC is up in trip drawn 1
 
Another interesting draw stat

Go back to 2000
York 7f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horse aged 5 or more
Absent more than 38 days
Drawn in stall 9 or more
Have a 0-56 record in them
The following both fail this

CHALLET
THE COOKSTOWN CAFU

BASS PLAYER rejected from 10f
AL MARMAR looks beatable
CRAVEN lost too far too recently

LAHAB is 4 years old
His 56 day break not ideal
No negative but others are safer

RED MIRAGE is a 6yo
Raced just once this season
He won that race 23 days ago

Similar races in May
Horses aged 5 or more
Just 1 race that season 
Winning that race
Carrying 9st 2lbs or more
Have a 0-17 record in them
RED MIRAGE fails this
Not a negative but soft profile
Not matchable to any winners

Shortlisting these

ELDRICKJONES

ANOTHER INVESTMENT

TROPEZ POWER

HOW IMPRESSIVE
 
With the 5 day absence

ELDRICKJONES gets the vote

Selection

ELDRICKJONES 13/2-6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds
 
1-2-3-4-5





York 5.20

4/1 Vantheman, 6/1 Pilgrim, 8/1 Vince L'Amour
9/1 Enchanting, Ziggy's Missile, 12/1 Hedge Fund
12/1 Jubilee Walk, Rainyniteingeorgia, 14/1 Harvanna
14/1 Irish Nectar, 16/1 Indicate, Master Of My Fate
16/1 Midnight Affair, 18/1 Curious Rover, Rogue Enforcer
22/1 Ziggy's Queen, 25/1 Make It Easy, Stash The Cash
28/1 Sankari, 50/1 Front Gunner.

3yo Handicap 5f

17 Past renewals

Lethal handicap

Cutting a few corners

Against the highest draws 

Opposing long absences
16 of the 17 past winners
Ran within the last 49 days
  
Horses in this race
With just 1 run this season
Under 7 career starts
Beaten in that race
Have a 0-33 record in this 
PILGRIM one who fails this

He comes from a 6f race
That does not look ideal

Horses down from a 6f race
Have a modest 3-63 record
Since 2014 they are 0-35

Horses from 6f races
Beaten over a length last time
Have a 0-59 record in this
PILGRIM fails this as well
IRISH NECTAR does too

Horses winning last time
Absent more than 22 days
Have a 0-30 record in this
JUBILEE WALK fails this
Does not make a negative
But it sounds good practice
To avoid this kind of profile
Stall 1 could help or hinder
And he has a big weight too

Ran a few angles

Came down on two horses

HEDGE FUND one of them

Lot of weight with 9st 9lbs

But the same profile
As the 2002 winner Korker

VINCE L'AMOUR the other

17 past renewals

Horses with 5-6-7-8 runs
Running within 13 days
Coming from a 5f handicap
Beaten under 6 lengths
Carrying 9st 4lbs or lower
Drawn 14 or lower
Have a 4-8 record in them

VINCE L'AMOUR has this profile

Selection

£4.50 Each Way VINCE L'AMOUR 10/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet HEDGE FUND 8/1-7/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4-5

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