5 Previews  
0 Account Bet 





Favourite Bet(s)

Worcester 5.10
Fourtowns 7/4
Win Bet 

Wexford 6.05
Ranger Billy 3/1-100/30
Win Bet



 



     

Final Deliberations       


5 Previews

No shortage of racing today
But much of it out of bounds
Finished up with just 5 races

One problem is the previews
Are short of afternoon races
Big gap between the previews
Most of the afternoon cards
Were too hard to break down

 


Sandown 2.10
 
£7.50 Win Bet SPRING BLOOM 5/1

£2.50 Win Bet LIL GUFF 7/2-100/30

Happy with the two horses
But hard to stake this well
Over a course and distance
That has a huge luck factor
Horses going off too quickly
The safer stake a win place
Lil Guff could be a place bet
But staking a win and saver
Need to be lucky with staking

Think my strongest races 
Are probably these below




Worcester 5.10

FOURTOWNS 7/4

Win Bet

Just like the Sandown race
The safest option in this race
Would be a win and place bet
£5 Win bet on Fourtowns 
£5 Place bet on R S Ambush
The market has killed that
And any saver option too
I'm only playing in this race
A danger fails a 0-150 stat
felt it was worth going with
But now a win bet no safety 





Wexford 6.05

RANGER BILLY 7/2 -100/30

Win Bet


Like his profile
Like his fitness

Hard to read the opposition
But most have lots to prove
This is a late Irish handicap
So hard to smell the market
He is currently 4/1 on betfair
I'm very tempted each way 
But the offices are 7/2 best
And he is one of those horses
That could end up 7/4 or 5/1
No safety nets with a win bet
I think he will win this easily
But many known unknowns
Things I can't predict at 10am
But right now it's my best bet


Did not want to stake any bets

Busier message than yesterday

That will continue this weekend

Before we hit Glorious Goodwood







Preview Selections
 
Sandown 2.10
£7.50 Win Bet Spring Bloom 5/1
£2.50 Win Bet Lil Guff 7/2-100/30
 
Worcester 4.35
Reach For The Moon 3/1-7/2 
Each Way

Wexford 5.00
Doyen Magic 6/1-11/2
Each Way
 
Worcester 5.10
Fourtowns 7/4
Win Bet 

Wexford 6.05
Ranger Billy 7/2 -100/30
Win Bet







Yesterday's Summary    

Nothing back from two previews
Elforleather ran a good race in 3rd
Came up against a Gary Moore plot
Had I known that before the race
I would have done him each way
Because he drifted to a 5/1 chance
One More Dream was also beaten
Ran well and finished really quickly
Just had too many in front of him
Coming wide maybe disadvantaged
To get nothing back was not great







PROFILES & PREVIEWS   
  


Sandown 2.10

3/1 Connie's Rose, 9/2 Jenever, 9/2 Lil Guff
6/1 Glamorous Breeze, 7/1 Alligator Alley, 77/1 Baileys Polka Dot
10/1 Spring Bloom, 14/1 Dubai Station, 16/1 Phoenix Star.

5f Handicap

Horses rated 0-82

10 renewals

Quirky draw statistic

Horses drawn 2-3-4-5

Won all 10 renewals

CONNIE'S ROSE is a mare
She will do well to win drawn 9

Go back to 2011
Sandown 5f handicaps
Under 10 runners
Horses drawn 9 are 0-17
She would be the first to win
Not for me and drifting badly

Take the same sample
5f handicaps here since 2011
With under 16 runners
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent  more than 23 days
Drawn in stall 7 or higher
Have a 0-44 record in them
GLAMOROUS BREEZE fails this

PHOENIX STAR questionable
Coming up from class 6 to class 4
Yes he has a recent run onside
But goes up from 0-61 to 0-82
BAILEYS POLKA DOT rejected
Happy to oppose a 3 year old filly

ALIGATOR ALLEY has a chance
Not the best draw but respected
But he does have a lot of weight

JENEVER has topweight 10st 2lbs
Can't find a winner with his weight
Without having a more recent run

LIL GUFF is a positive
The Bath race she comes from
Provided 2 past winners of this
This is her best course/distance
Most likely winner but is short

SPRING BLOOM is a positive
He would be my second choice
But at the prices going with him

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SPRING BLOOM 5/1

£2.50 Win Bet LIL GUFF 7/2-100/30







Worcester 4.35

 11/8 I'm Ravenous, 9/4 Reach For The Moon, 9/2 Manowest
7/1 Scintillante, 14/1 Applicationofcash, 20/1 Voix De Bocelli
25/1 Macmolly, 50/1 Atwixaday, 66/1 Dreams Fled Away
66/1 Sox's Sun, 100/1 Johnnie River, 100/1 Ocean Frontier.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Looks like a match to be

I'm Revanous v Reach For The Moon

MANOWEST is unraced
Cheaply bought 6 year old

Go back to 2003
April to August
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 3for shorter
Unraced 6 year olds
Have a 0-100 record
MANOWEST fails this

APPLICATIONFORCASH
Another 6yo cheap and modes

I'M RAVENOUS a 6yo
Has hurdles form 95 days off
Could win not and not a negative

REACH FOR THE MOON

Classy horse

But has temperament issues
Thats the drawback with him

Had a supreme novice entry
But was never in that league
May be about his connections
Getting him to settle and perform

If they can train him to be a hurdler

Then he will likely win this race

Statistically hard to judge 
Last time out "Carried out" early 
Too early to know anything

Seems to have found a soft race
At the prices he is the best risk

Hate myself for doing this

But going each way 

Not large stakes here

Selection 

REACH FOR THE MOON 7/2-100/30

Each Way







Wexford 5.00

4/1 Gers Gigi, 4/1 Workinonadream, 11/2 Doyen Magic
6/1 Birmingham Alabama, 8/1 Meet My Loreley, 11/1 Spanish Maid
12/1 Ballinvasas Best, 12/1 Intheblinkofaneye, 12/1 Sights Unseen
14/1 Ravenpoint, 20/1 Mother Ship, 20/1 Yougoingforone
40/1 Glorious Singer, 50/1 Stradbally Village.

Mares Maiden hurdle 2m 4f

Most of these have problems

WORKINONADREAM a 6yo
Has raced once over hurdles
She's had just 1 run in months
And is also coming back quickly
MEET ME LONELY is similar
Just ran in her only hurdle race
Just 1 run in months back quickly
GERS GIGI comes from a bumper
Nothing special about her profile
Would be better if absent longer
BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA a 6yo
Having a 3rd hurdle and career run
Looks beatable but has her claims
MOTHER SHIPS is only a 4yo
SPANIS MAID has experience
But cheap never started under 331


DOYEN MAGIC

She has done as much as many
More experience than most
Figures are modestly improving
She looks the percentage bet

Selection

DOYEN MAGIC 6/1-13/2

Each Way




Worcester 5.10

3/1 Fourtowns, 4/1 Cannon Rock
5/1 R S Ambush,  8/1 Ebony Warrior, 10/1 Light Dragoon
10/1 Rubies Or Gold, 20/1 Lady Wormsley, 25/1 Hurley Girly
25/1 Suitably Surprised, 33/1 Moab, Till You Can't.

Maiden Hurdle 2m

Should involve a handful

CANNON ROCK is a 4yo

No hurdling experience
Has raced 7 times on the flat
Beaten 11 lengths there recently
Shown plenty of flat ability
But his profile isn't very good
 
Go back to 2000
Maiden Hurdles
Any distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Hurdling debut
Coming from the flat
Under 10 career starts
Running within 36 days
Return a 0-150 record
CANNON ROCK fails this


EBONY WARRIOR is a 6yo
Just 1 hurdle runs 42 days ago
Has a chance but hard to read
Not a strong profile though

R S AMBUSH likewise
Beaten 11 lengths 11 days ago

FOURTOWNS is first choice


Planned to have a saver bet 
 

But the markets killed that 

 

Selection

FOURTOWNS  7/4

Win Bet






Wexford 6.05

4/1 Ranger Billy, 9/2 Bigira, 11/2 Tullyveery Lad
6/1 Doyen For A Drink, Mighty Momentum, 7/1 Glendine Billy
10/1 Second Subaltern, 20/1 Falvio, 20/1  Hestheboycandoit
20/1 Stumblin In, 33/1 Iris Sacre, 33/1  Thecornerbar
100/1 Dark Voyager.

Handicap Hurdle 3m

GLENDINE BILLY is topweight

He pulled up just 18 days ago
Hampered early on his excuse
Can not entirely rule him out
But he brings zero momentum

RANGER BILLY

He is the interesting horse
Decent run only 2 days ago
Look at some similar profiles 

July and August
Handicap Hurdles 3m +
Horses aged 8 or older
Coming from 2m 6f or shorter
Beaten under 16 lengths last time
Running exactly 2 days ago
Have an encouraging 3-5 record

That felt surprisingly good
Male horses with this profile
Have a W W 3 W record
Puts him top of the options

Several others have problems

BIGRA is a 5 year old mare
She is going up 7f in distance
Comes from a sprint bred sire
Who never raced beyond a mile
Who hasn't yet had a hurdle winner
SECOND SUBALTERN an 8yo
He's also coming from 2m 1f
Hammered in a chase last time
HESTHEBOYCANDOIT an 8yo
Comes up 7f fails breeding stats
STUMBLIN IN is a 5 year old
Still quite raw with just 5 runs

DOYEN FOR A DRINK a mare
Comes here with 297 days absence
FALVIO beaten too far 6 days ago
TULLYVEERY LAD has been chasing
Beaten a long way in his last one

Plenty of dodgy profiles

Hard to see why many can win

RANGER BILLY is the exception

Only horse with an inviting profile

Maybe his last race comes too soon

But it could be a big advantage too

He was the only horse I can bet

I'd prefer 4/1 each way 5 places

But around 3/1 -100/30 a win bet

Selection

RANGER BILLY 7/2 -100/30

Win Bet








FUTURE BETTING ANGLES


Saturday July 27th

York 2.40

Sky Bet Dash
 
11/2 Trefor 6/1 Woodhay Wonder 8/1 Manila Scouse
8/1 Bergerac 10/1 Radio Goo Goo 10/1 Marine Wave
10/1 Korker 10/1 Aleezdancer 12/1 Hyperfocus 12/1 Two Tribes
12/1 Dare To Hope 12/1 Silky Wilkie 12/1 Dapper Valley
14/1 Rock Opera 14/1 Badri 14/1 Ferrous 14/1 Spangled Mac
16/1 Rage Of Bamby 16/1 Dakota Gold 20/1 Tacarib Bay  
25/1 International Girl 25/1 Magical Spirit 25/1 Brazen Bolt

Declarations through today

There is a relevant draw bias 

So we will know more later

3 year olds head of the betting

Woodhay Wonder has problems
She is a 3yo filly going up in trip

Trefor is a 3yo going up in class
He would be the safer of the pair
But he's not like any past winners


Applied my statistics

They point to this shortlist

MARINE WAVE 11/1

SILKY WILKIE 9/1

FERROUS 14/1

Not definitive before the draw

But looks a race we can cover







Ante Post Statistics

Saturday July 27th

York 2.40

Sky Bet Dash


11/2 Trefor 6/1 Woodhay Wonder 8/1 Manila Scouse
8/1 Bergerac 10/1 Radio Goo Goo 10/1 Marine Wave
10/1 Korker 10/1 Aleezdancer 12/1 Hyperfocus 12/1 Two Tribes
12/1 Dare To Hope 12/1 Silky Wilkie 12/1 Dapper Valley
14/1 Rock Opera 14/1 Badri 14/1 Ferrous 14/1 Spangled Mac
16/1 Rage Of Bamby 16/1 Dakota Gold 20/1 Tacarib Bay  
25/1 International Girl 25/1 Magical Spirit 25/1 Brazen Bolt

6f Handicap

220 past renewals
 
Past winners
Official Ratings

88 104 95 87 96 94 90 99 96 93 
100 100 105 91 103 96 94 87 107
 
Horses rated under 87
Have a 0-33 record since 2004

Horses from 5f
Have a poor 2-84 record
Those aged 4 were 0-21

Horses from 5f
Running within 28 days
Have a 0-61 record

Both winners from 5f
Ran at Newcastle last time
In the 5f Gosforth Cup
Both unplaced in that race

Horses aged 8 or more
Have a 1-31 record in this

Horses aged 7 or more
Have a 2-69 record in this
Those beaten 2 + lengths
Last time out are 0-52 in this

Horses aged 3 are 2-22
They both had 8 career starts
They both dropped in distance

All 18 winners ran within 35 days
Those that did not were 0-40

Horses with over 15 runs
Having 1-2-3 runs that season
Have a poor 1-68 record in this

Horses who last time out
Started over 20/1 in that race
Have a 0-58 record in this race

Last time out winners
With 9 or more career runs
Have a 0-29 record in this race

Horses from Class 3 or lower
Have a weak 2-73 record in this
They had 2 and 22 day absences 

Horses aged 4
From Class 3 or lower
Have a 0-28 record in them

Horses drawn 13 or more
Have a 1-77 record in this race

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