Mathematician 4875 | 06-10-2024 |
Mathematician 4875
Sunday October 6th
6 Previews
0 Account Bet
No Account Bet
Favourite Bet(s)
Killarney 2.15
Bayou Belle 11/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Tipperary 3.05
£8.00 Win Bet Gaucher 5/2-9/4
£2.00 Win Bet Chart Topper 4/1-7/2
Final Deliberations
Arc De Triomphe day
Part of an unusual schedule
National Hunt dominated day
A cobbled together message
Longchamp has 2 previews
Big priced selections in both
Hopeful but not too confident
6 Previews
2 Longchamp
2 Tipperary
1 Killarney
1 Kelso
Future Betting angle column
This contains a football bet
A guest article on the Cricket
To be perfectly honest
Found this message a nuisance
Not expecting a winning day
But you can never be sure
Just no structure to the cards
Monday there will be a message
Much more traditional schedule
Not committing to anything today
Highlighting two of the 6 races
Killarney 2.15
BAYOU BELLE 11/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Tipperary 3.05
£8.00 Win Bet GAUCHER 5/2-9/4
£2.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 4/1-7/2
Preview Selections
Tipperary 1.55
£4.00 Each Way Complete Fiction 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet Passionate 4/1-7/2
Longchamp 2.05
£4.00 Each Way Makarova 16/1
£2.00 Win Bet Believing 7/2-4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Killarney 2.15
Bayou Belle 11/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Tipperary 3.05
£8.00 Win Bet Gaucher 5/2-9/4
£2.00 Win Bet Chart Topper 4/1-7/2
Longchamp 3.20
£ 8.00 Win Bet Al Riffa 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet Bluestocking 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Delius16/1
Kelso 4.25
£6.50 Win Bet Theirshegoes 6/1
£3.50 Place Bet Malangen 7/4
Yesterday's Summary
Saturday had 10 previews
Did not land the bet wanted
Felt it had plenty of quality
But the stronger bets failed
The message wimped out
Nothing back in last 4 races
So overall it was a poor day
Those 3 stronger bets given
Rumstar won as a saver bet
Looking back with hindsight
It was a very good strategy
Chosen the wrong one of 3
Blinded by a good trial race
But overall felt a decent bet
Akkadian Thunder unplaced
Stayed on late but annoying
He was given so much to do
The only other we shortlisted
Was the easy winner Volterra
My statistics in that handicap
Were top class all worked out
Got a load of generics beaten
The flaw came in the staking
Why didn't I save on the him
Not too sure obviously should
It goes down as awful staking
EN OR the losing account bet
Thought he was badly ridden
He looked too far off the pace
But he made ground and 2 out
He looked the potential winner
Being on the far rail didn't help
And his late finish petered out
Not too sure why it happened
Maybe he is not very genuine
Maybe being held up drawn 1
Possibly just set him up to fail
And lost his place chance late
Did not get the results wanted
Can't say we deserved better
Much of it was self inflicted
PROFILES & PREVIEWS
Tipperary 1.55
9/2 Passionate, 5/1 Camelot Alexander
5/1 Kortez Bay, 6/1 Simply Sideways
7/1 Complete Fiction, 8/1 Titanium
8/1 Vasda, 9/1 Casanova, Fleetfoot.
9f Handicap
Horses rated 0-90
Opposing the topweights in this
FLEETWOOD has 10st 2lbs
With an unfit profile against him
TITANIUM has 10st 2lbs
He has 68 days off the track
His trainers absence record
Does not not particularly good
KORTEZ BAY is favourite
No major profile issues here
But he is a big weighted 3yo
Giving weight to older horses
And stall 1 could be an issue
Since 2011
Tipperary 9f handicaps
With 7 or more runners
Horses with over 6 runners
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-39
KORTEZ BAY fails this
CASANOVA has a chance
But a very exposed 8yo
Finished last only 5 days ago
VASDA is a 4 year old filly
She's raced once in 98 days
September to November
Tipperary Handicaps
Run in Class 4 or higher
Any distance
Horses aged 3-4-5
Absent more than 25 days
Have a 0-55 record in them
The following horses fail this
VASDA
TITANIUM
CAMELOT ALEXANDER
SIMPLY SIDEWAYS a 7yo mare
She won this race last season
But she was on a hat trick them
Not running as well this season
Just 1 poor run in the last 66 days
Shortlist
COMPLETE FICTION 15/2-7/1
PASSIONATE 100/30-7/2
Selection
£4.00 Each Way COMPLETE FICTION 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet PASSIONATE 100/30-7/2
Longchamp 2.05
9/4 Bradsell, 7/2 Believing
13/2 No Half Measures 9/1 Starlust
12/1 Kerdos 12/1 Makarova, 14/1 Grand Grey
16/1 Rogue Lightning 16/1 Aesop's Fables
16/1 Washington Heights, 25/1 Desperate Hero
33/1 Moss Tucker, 40/1 Englemere, La Bellota
50/1 Batwan, Mgheera.
Prix de l'Abbaye
Only covering this race
As it has a great heritage
Don't have a strong view
Low draws traditionally best
But last years winner of this
Bucked all that from stall 14
BRADSWELL rated 118
Looks the best horse in this
But has no soft ground form
BELIEVING is rated 112
Has twice finished 2nd to him
This time she has a better draw
She may be the percentage bet
Given there are 1-2-3-4 places
There will be dangers
KERDOS has 1 run in 65 days
STARLUS has 1 run in 65 days
ROGUE LIGHTNING the same
There are fitter profiles in this
NO HALF MEASURES could win
But a bad draw and unusual prep
STARLUST has been backed
But quite exposed for a 3yo
More runs than any that won
AESOPS FABLES is badly drawn
BELIEVING each way
May be the safest option
But looking at the field size
And the luck factor involved
Hard to believe that is value
Going to make him the saver
Go back to last years race
MAKAROVA finished in 6th
Beaten under 2 lengths
As a mare with 37 days off
Coming wide from stall 17
This year better draw
Has a more recent run
Made her a saver last time
Tough race but a good price
Selection
£4.00 Each Way MAKAROVA 16/1
£2.00 Win Bet BELIEVING 7/2
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Killarney 2.15
7/2 Say It So, 4/1 Eastmore, 5/1 Bayou Belle
6/1 Due Course, 7/1 Kings Halo, 8/1 Gekkota
8/1 Nicholas Street, 16/1 Duke Silver,
16/1 Highland King, 20/1 Duke Silver, 25/1 Avandra
33/1 Gendarme, She's On Line, Trenchtown Rock.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f
The bottom 4 in the weights
Are also the rank outsiders
They are all rated 87 or lower
And look a bit too detached
HIGHLAND KING rated 92
Has not done enough yet
DUKE SILVER is a 4 year old
He comes here hard to like
Staying with the 4 year olds
EASTMORE
NICHOLAS STREET
EASTMORE has 11st 12lbs
Killarney
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-8 record few tried
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career runs
Carrying 10st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-21 record in them
EASTMORE fails this angle
If we take the same races
No 4 year olds has won any
At this track with under 5 runs
NICHOLAS STREET has 4
Handicaps in October
Show similar 4 year olds
Have struggled as they do here
So going to oppose the 4yo's
KINGS HALO might need this
That leaves 4 horses
SAY IT SO ran 10 days ago
Beaten a bit further than ideal
DUE COURSE has been chasing
Can not rule any of the above out
But going with two alternatives
Who are out and running well
BAYOU BELLE
GEKKOTA
BAYOU BELLE a 5yo mare
Has a nasty 0-30 record so far
Not too bothered by that fact
She is very limited stamina wise
Many of her defeats over trips
That were asking too much of her
This is a good chance to get a win
On a sharp track over this distance
GEKKOTA in contrast
Could want a bit further than this
Close call going with the mare
Selection
BAYOU BELLE 11/2-6/1
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4
Tipperary 3.05
5/2 Feud, 11/4 Chart Topper
7/2 Gaucher, 4/1 Sunchart, 8/1 Littlebiggie
20/1 Ah Fuhgeddaboudit.
Graded Novice Hurdle 2m
FEUD is a 4 year old
He's won both hurdle runs
He has a penalty to defy
He has to concede weight
To several older horses
With 69 days off the track
He may well do it
He has plenty of ability
But this angle suggests
He has plenty still to do
Go back 25 years
January to October
Graded novice hurdles
Any and every distance
Horses aged 4
More than 5 career runs
Absent more than 54 days
Have a 0-35 record in them
FEUD shares this 0-35 profile
Not definitive it is only 0-35
But what it basically means
No 4yo won with his profile
Before November since 1997
Willies Mullins
Provides 2 workable options
Willie Mullins farms this race
Won 8 of the last 9 renewals
And on 4 of those occasions
He won with a similar horse
Who had just 1 hurdle race
Coming from a maiden hurdle
CHART TOPPER has this profile
GAUCHER his other runner
Comes here fit and running well
And could easily have a big say
Staying with the Mullins horses
Opposing the 4 year old
One or two others have chances
But going in this direction
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet GAUCHER 5/2-9/4
£2.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 4/1-7/2
Longchamp 3.20
9/2 Sosie, 5/1 Look De Vega, 5/1 Los Angeles
13/2 Shin Emperor, 9/1 Al Riffa, 10/1 Bluestocking
12/1 Delius, 16/1 Aventure, 20/1 Fantastic Moon
20/1 Mqse De Sevigne, 25/1 Continuous, Sunway
40/1 Zarakem, 50/1 Survie, 66/1 Haya Zark
66/1 Sevenna's Knight.
Prix de L'arc de Triomphe
Covered this race midweek
SHIN EMPEROR from Japan
Has pedigree doubts for me
Not keen on his sire Siyouni
Horses sired by Siyouni
Running over 11f or more
Listed and Graded class
Have a 0-24 record so far
SHIN EMPEROR next to try
So far all of the sires results
Suggest stamina is an issue
The sire never ran past a mile
The dam unproven beyond 7f
SHIN EMPEROR may still win
But not convinced by pedigree
The Prix Neil
21 days ago
1st SOSIE
2nd DELIUS
3rd LOOK DE VEGA
LOOK DE VEGA was odds on
Did his stamina let him down ?
Not sure but not keen on him
Mainly because of the sire
Lope De Vega is unconvincing
Lope De Vega runners
Over 12 furlongs and further
Running in Group 1 races
Have a 0-19 record so far
Those with under 6 runs
Running in all group races
Over 12f or more are 0-34
LOOK DE VEGA fails this
3 year olds
Won 19 of the last 30 renewals
With the following career runs
5 7 7 4 11 4 8 6 6 6
8 8 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7
Most had 5 or more runs
LOOK DE VEGA has 4 runs
Does not make him a negative
But he is the least experienced
Every other 3yo in this has more
With stamina doubts not for me
SOSIE is a French 3 year old
No strong objections to him
DELIUS 2nd in the Prix Niel
Also looks a positive as well
Aidan O'Brien runs 2 horses
CONTINUOUS failed last season
Probably won't be good enough
LOS ANGELES looks his no 1
AL RIFFA is a 4 year old
He has the longest absence
That put me off him midweek
But now I have had a rethink
Looks like a weaker renewal
Not much strength in depth
Andre Fabre said this week
He felt the 3yo's this season
And not a vintage generation
And none of them stand out
No idea if that is true or not
But if it is several of the 3yo's
Have nothing between them
SOSIE is one of those
If he is not good enough
You can take the same view
About the horses he has beat
Decided to go with 4 year olds
BLUESTOCKING is a 4yo filly
Fillies aged 4
Have won 4 of the last 12 Arc's
That angle gets her a saver role
But not making her first choice
As she has had a few more runs
Than previous winning 4yo fillies
AL RIFFA is a 4yo
He is a Group 1 winner at 12f
Joseph is capable of magic
He has been laid out for this
Comes here off a career best
Strong market support for him
Going to give him the chance
DELIUS is a second saver
Provides balance to the staking
Selection
£ 8.00 Win Bet AL RIFFA 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet BLUESTOCKING 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet DELIUS 16/1
Kelso 4.25
2/1 O'Grady's Hill, 9/2 Theirshegoes, 7/1 Iwa
7/1 Malangen, 7/1 Nastasiya, 8/1 Rickety Gate
12/1 Be The Difference, 14/1 Carrarea
20/1 Darkest Day, 25/1 Swift Reply
33/1 Luminaries. ries.
Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
Horses rated 0-99
O'GRADY'S HILL is topweight
But a very raw 5 year old mare
Just 3 previous career starts
She fails this powerful statistic
Go back to 2007
Handicap Hurdles
Non pattern races
Any distance
Any time of year
5 year old mares
Under 4 lifetime runs
Absent more than 53 days
Return a 0-172 record
O'GRADY'S HILL fails this
Don't like the rank outsiders
DARKEST DAY included in that
NASTASIYA ran 10 days ago
Beaten too far over 3 miles
Not strong on breeding stats
RICKETY GATE is a 9 year old
Very exposed with 114 days off
Won the race younger in 2022
Not as safe now as a 9 year old
BE THE DIFFERENCE an 8yo
Offers no sign of form or fitness
IWA is hard to read
Long absence
First run for a new stable
MALANGEN is a 9yo
Big weight
Beaten 11 lengths 11 days ago
Can not match him to any winner
But there are place possibilities
Decided to split stake the race
Selection
£6.50 Win Bet THEIRSHEGOES 6/1
£3.50 Place Bet MALANGEN 7/4
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES
Next Week
No firm plans just yet
No plans to take a day off
That is subject to change
But will probably not bother
Newmarket
It is Cesarewitch week
Will cover the big race
But not one I commit to
The main target race
Saturday - York 2.40
Coral Sprint Trophy
No entries at the moment
Will cover it when there are
Football
Having a win double today
Opposing 2 of my favourite teams
Comes out around 13/8
Aston Villa - Draw no Bet 8/11
Chelsea - To win the game 8/15
Win Double
Test Cricket
Guest Article Today
Kindly sent by a member
Pakistan v England
Three test series
Starts 6am tomorrow
England’s first Tour of The Winter kicks off in
Multan in Pakistan at 6am on Monday morning
Only two years ago as Bazball was in its infancy
England traveled to The Sub-Continent and beat
Pakistan with a clean sweep 3-0 score line while
notching up 500 in a day in Rawalpindi
However, this Touring side England have selected
is very different in make up from the squad picked
two years ago. This time the bowling attack is short
of Anderson, Robinson & Wood and the batting line
up lacks Will Jacks and Liam Livingstone. Jacks
also took 5 Wickets on his debut.
Instead England have picked Chris Woakes (whose
record overseas is very poor compared to how good
he is in England), Matthew Potts(again more suited
to English seaming wickets) and the pace battery is
supplemented by Bryson Carse & Olly Stone.
The biggest problem facing England is Ben Stokes’s
fitness. He is unlikely to play in The 1st Test due to
a hamstring injury and England will not only miss
his savvy Captaincy but his all round ability with bat
and ball. Jamie Smith had an excellent Summer but
keeping in 40 degrees stifling heat in Pakistan will
be a different kettle of fish and it will be interesting
to see how he fares with both gloves & bat as tiredness
can play a key. An extra worry for him is his Girlfriend
is due to give birth during The 2nd Test of up coming
New Zealand and this will surely be a worry for him as
he embarks in his first major England Overseas Test Tour.
As for Pakistan, England will face a very different side
from two years ago and they will be stronger for sure
as they were lacking Shaheen Shah Afridi who will be
back bowling left arm swing thunderbolts and also
buoyed by the appointment of Jason Gillespie who is
a very shrewd Coach leading Yorkshire to two back to
back County Championships. Also, Shan Masood has
asked for quicker wickets rather than flat feather beds
of two years and England at times struggled to read
Abrar Ahmed.
In the last Test of The Summer at The Oval, England’s
cricket bordered on recklessness and I think this will
be a very tough assignment for England in Pakistan
and particularly in this First Test in Multan without their
talismanic Captain in Stokes. England are worth taking
on (laying) at 2.28 and I’m sure further trading opportunities
will arise in The Test also. It’s never dull when Pakistan
are playing Test Cricket and I think this will be a fascinating
three match Test Series.
Best Bets : Bet365
England Top Run Scorer :
Ben Duckett 3/1
Harry Brook 3/1
England Top Wicket Taker :
Shoahib Bashir 5/2
Pakistan Top Wicket Taker :
Abrar Ahmed 13/8
Shahheen Shah Afridi 2/1
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