Mathematician 487506-10-2024



Mathematician 4875
Sunday October 6th

6 Previews  
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Favourite Bet(s)

Killarney 2.15
Bayou Belle 11/2-6/1 
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 

Tipperary 3.05
£8.00 Win Bet Gaucher  5/2-9/4
£2.00 Win Bet Chart Topper 4/1-7/2




Final Deliberations

 
Arc De Triomphe day

Part of an unusual schedule
National Hunt dominated day  
A cobbled together message

Longchamp has 2 previews
Big priced selections in both
Hopeful but not too confident



6 Previews

2 Longchamp 
2 Tipperary
1 Killarney
1 Kelso 
 
Future Betting angle column 
This contains a football bet
A guest article on the Cricket


To be perfectly honest

Found this message a nuisance

Not expecting a winning day

But you can never be sure

Just no structure to the cards 

Monday there will be a message
Much more traditional schedule
Not committing to anything today
Highlighting two of the 6 races




Killarney 2.15

BAYOU BELLE 11/2-6/1 

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4  



Tipperary 3.05

£8.00 Win Bet GAUCHER 5/2-9/4

£2.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 4/1-7/2


 





Preview Selections

Tipperary 1.55
£4.00 Each Way Complete Fiction 8/1
£2.00 Win Bet Passionate 4/1-7/2

Longchamp 2.05
£4.00 Each Way Makarova 16/1
£2.00 Win Bet Believing 7/2-4/1
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4

Killarney 2.15
Bayou Belle 11/2-6/1 
Each Way
1/5 Odds
1-2-3-4 

Tipperary 3.05
£8.00 Win Bet Gaucher  5/2-9/4
£2.00 Win Bet Chart Topper 4/1-7/2

Longchamp 3.20 
£ 8.00 Win Bet Al Riffa 9/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Bluestocking 11/1
£1.00 Win Bet Delius16/1

Kelso 4.25 
£6.50 Win Bet Theirshegoes 6/1 
£3.50 Place Bet Malangen 7/4





Yesterday's Summary
 
Saturday had 10 previews
Did not land the bet wanted
Felt it had plenty of quality
But the stronger bets failed
The message wimped out
Nothing back in last 4 races
So overall it was a poor day
Those 3 stronger bets given
Rumstar won as a saver bet
Looking back with hindsight
It was a very good strategy
Chosen the wrong one of 3
Blinded by a good trial race
But overall felt a decent bet
Akkadian Thunder unplaced
Stayed on late but annoying
He was given so much to do
The only other we shortlisted
Was the easy winner Volterra
My statistics in that handicap
Were top class all worked out
Got a load of generics beaten
The flaw came in the staking
Why didn't I save on the him
Not too sure obviously should 
It goes down as awful staking
EN OR the losing account bet
Thought he was badly ridden
He looked too far off the pace 
But he made ground and 2 out
He looked the potential winner
Being on the far rail didn't help
And his late finish petered out
Not too sure why it happened
Maybe he is not very genuine
Maybe being held up drawn 1
Possibly just set him up to fail
And lost his place chance late
Did not get the results wanted
Can't say we deserved better
Much of it was self inflicted







PROFILES & PREVIEWS



Tipperary 1.55

9/2 Passionate, 5/1 Camelot Alexander
5/1 Kortez Bay, 6/1 Simply Sideways
7/1 Complete Fiction, 8/1 Titanium
8/1 Vasda, 9/1 Casanova, Fleetfoot.
 
9f Handicap
 
Horses rated 0-90

Opposing the topweights in this

FLEETWOOD has 10st 2lbs
With an unfit profile against him

TITANIUM has 10st 2lbs
He has 68 days off the track
His trainers absence record
Does not not particularly good

KORTEZ BAY is favourite
No major profile issues here
But he is a big weighted 3yo
Giving weight to older horses
And stall 1 could be an issue

Since 2011
Tipperary 9f handicaps
With 7 or more runners
Horses with over 6 runners
Drawn in stall 1 are 0-39  
KORTEZ BAY fails this

CASANOVA has a chance
But a very exposed 8yo  
Finished last only 5 days ago 

VASDA is a 4 year old filly
She's raced once in 98 days

September to November
Tipperary Handicaps
Run in Class 4 or higher
Any distance
Horses aged 3-4-5
Absent more than 25 days
Have a 0-55 record in them 
The following horses fail this

VASDA
TITANIUM
CAMELOT ALEXANDER

SIMPLY SIDEWAYS a 7yo mare
She won this race last season
But she was on a hat trick them
Not running as well this season
Just 1 poor run in the last 66 days


Shortlist

COMPLETE FICTION 15/2-7/1

PASSIONATE 100/30-7/2

Selection

£4.00 Each Way COMPLETE FICTION 8/1

£2.00 Win Bet PASSIONATE 100/30-7/2








Longchamp 2.05

9/4 Bradsell, 7/2 Believing
13/2 No Half Measures 9/1 Starlust
12/1 Kerdos 12/1 Makarova, 14/1 Grand Grey
16/1  Rogue Lightning 16/1 Aesop's Fables
16/1 Washington Heights, 25/1 Desperate Hero
33/1 Moss Tucker, 40/1 Englemere, La Bellota
50/1 Batwan, Mgheera.

Prix de l'Abbaye

Only covering this race

As it has a great heritage

Don't have a strong view

Low draws traditionally best
But last years winner of this
Bucked all that from stall 14  

BRADSWELL rated 118
Looks the best horse in this
But has no soft ground form

BELIEVING is rated 112
Has twice finished 2nd to him
This time she has a better draw
She may be the percentage bet
Given there are 1-2-3-4 places

There will be dangers

KERDOS has 1 run in 65 days
STARLUS has 1 run in 65 days
ROGUE LIGHTNING the same

There are fitter profiles in this

NO HALF MEASURES could win
But a bad draw and unusual prep

STARLUST has been backed
But quite exposed for a 3yo
More runs than any that won
 
AESOPS FABLES is badly drawn

BELIEVING each way
May be the safest option
But looking at the field size
And the luck factor involved
Hard to believe that is value
Going to make him the saver

Go back to last years race

MAKAROVA finished in 6th

Beaten under 2 lengths
As a mare with 37 days off
Coming wide from stall 17

This year better draw
Has a more recent run
Made her a saver last time
Tough race but a good price

Selection

£4.00 Each Way MAKAROVA 16/1

£2.00 Win Bet BELIEVING 7/2 

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Killarney 2.15

7/2 Say It So, 4/1 Eastmore, 5/1 Bayou Belle
6/1 Due Course, 7/1 Kings Halo, 8/1 Gekkota
8/1 Nicholas Street, 16/1 Duke Silver,
16/1 Highland King, 20/1 Duke Silver, 25/1 Avandra
33/1 Gendarme, She's On Line, Trenchtown Rock.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

The bottom 4 in the weights
Are also the rank outsiders 
They are all rated 87 or lower 
And look a bit too detached

HIGHLAND KING rated 92
Has not done enough yet
DUKE SILVER is a 4 year old
He comes here hard to like

Staying with the 4 year olds

EASTMORE
NICHOLAS STREET

EASTMORE has 11st 12lbs

Killarney
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Any time of year
Horses aged 4
Carrying 11st 7lbs or more
Have a 0-8 record few tried
Horses aged 4
Under 10 career runs
Carrying 10st 13lbs or more
Have a 0-21 record in them
EASTMORE fails this angle

If we take the same races
No 4 year olds has won any
At this track with under 5 runs
NICHOLAS STREET has 4

Handicaps in October
Show similar 4 year olds
Have struggled as they do here
So going to oppose the 4yo's
KINGS HALO might need this

That leaves 4 horses

SAY IT SO ran 10 days ago
Beaten a bit further than ideal

DUE COURSE has been chasing 

Can not rule any of the above out
But going with two alternatives
Who are out and running well

BAYOU BELLE 
GEKKOTA

BAYOU BELLE a 5yo mare
Has a nasty 0-30 record so far
Not too bothered by that fact
She is very limited stamina wise
Many of her defeats over trips
That were asking too much of her
This is a good chance to get a win
On a sharp track over this distance

GEKKOTA in contrast
Could want a bit further than this
Close call going with the mare

Selection

BAYOU BELLE 11/2-6/1

Each Way

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4 







Tipperary 3.05

5/2 Feud, 11/4 Chart Topper
7/2 Gaucher, 4/1 Sunchart, 8/1 Littlebiggie
20/1 Ah Fuhgeddaboudit.
 
Graded Novice Hurdle 2m

FEUD is a 4 year old
He's won both hurdle runs
He has a penalty to defy
He has to concede weight 
To several older horses
With 69 days off the track

He may well do it
He has plenty of ability
But this angle suggests
He has plenty still to do

Go back 25 years
January to October
Graded novice hurdles
Any and every distance 
Horses  aged 4
More than 5 career runs
Absent more than 54 days
Have a 0-35 record in them
FEUD shares this 0-35 profile

Not definitive it is only 0-35 
But what it basically means
No 4yo won with his profile
Before November since 1997

Willies Mullins

Provides 2 workable options

Willie Mullins farms this race
Won 8 of the last 9 renewals
 
And on 4 of those occasions
He won with a similar horse
Who had just 1 hurdle race
Coming from a maiden hurdle

CHART TOPPER has this profile

GAUCHER his other runner
Comes here fit and running well
And could easily have a big say

Staying with the Mullins horses

Opposing the 4 year old

One or two others have chances

But going in this direction

Selection

£8.00 Win Bet GAUCHER 5/2-9/4

£2.00 Win Bet CHART TOPPER 4/1-7/2







Longchamp 3.20

9/2 Sosie, 5/1 Look De Vega, 5/1 Los Angeles
13/2 Shin Emperor, 9/1 Al Riffa, 10/1 Bluestocking
12/1 Delius, 16/1 Aventure, 20/1 Fantastic Moon
20/1 Mqse De Sevigne, 25/1 Continuous, Sunway
40/1 Zarakem, 50/1 Survie, 66/1 Haya Zark
66/1 Sevenna's Knight.
 
Prix de L'arc de Triomphe

Covered this race midweek 
 
SHIN EMPEROR from Japan
Has pedigree doubts for me 
Not keen on his sire Siyouni

Horses sired by Siyouni
Running over 11f or more
Listed and Graded class
Have a 0-24 record so far
SHIN EMPEROR next to try 
So far all of the sires results
Suggest stamina is an issue

The sire never ran past a mile
The dam unproven beyond 7f
SHIN EMPEROR may still win
But not convinced by pedigree

The Prix Neil 

21 days ago

1st SOSIE 
2nd DELIUS 
3rd LOOK DE VEGA

LOOK DE VEGA was odds on
Did his stamina let him down ?
Not sure but not keen on him
Mainly because of the sire
Lope De Vega is unconvincing

Lope De Vega runners
Over 12 furlongs and further
Running in Group 1 races
Have a 0-19 record so far

Those with under 6 runs
Running in all group races
Over 12f or more are 0-34

LOOK DE VEGA fails this

3 year olds
Won 19 of the last 30 renewals
With the following career runs

5 7 7 4 11 4 8 6 6 6
8 8 7 7 3 6 6 6 7 7

Most had 5 or more runs

LOOK DE VEGA has 4 runs
Does not make him a negative
But he is the least experienced
Every other 3yo in this has more
With stamina doubts not for me

SOSIE is a French 3 year old
No strong objections to him   

DELIUS 2nd in the Prix Niel
Also looks a positive as well
 
Aidan O'Brien runs 2 horses 

CONTINUOUS failed last season
Probably won't be good enough

LOS ANGELES looks his no 1

AL RIFFA is a 4 year old
He has the longest absence
That put me off him midweek
But now I have had a rethink 

Looks like a weaker renewal 
Not much strength in depth
Andre Fabre said this week
He felt the 3yo's this season
And not a vintage generation
And none of them stand out

No idea if that is true or not
But if it is several of the 3yo's
Have nothing between them

SOSIE is one of those
If he is not good enough
You can take the same view
About the horses he has beat

Decided to go with 4 year olds

BLUESTOCKING is a 4yo filly

Fillies aged 4
Have won 4 of the last 12 Arc's
That angle gets her a saver role
But not making her first choice
As she has had a few more runs
Than previous winning 4yo fillies
 
AL RIFFA is a 4yo

He is a Group 1 winner at 12f
Joseph is capable of magic
He has been laid out for this  
Comes here off a career best
Strong market support for him 
Going to give him the chance

DELIUS is a second saver
Provides balance to the staking


Selection

£ 8.00 Win Bet AL RIFFA 9/1

£1.00 Win Bet BLUESTOCKING 11/1

£1.00 Win Bet DELIUS 16/1







Kelso 4.25

2/1 O'Grady's Hill, 9/2 Theirshegoes, 7/1 Iwa
7/1 Malangen, 7/1 Nastasiya, 8/1 Rickety Gate
12/1 Be The Difference, 14/1 Carrarea
20/1 Darkest Day, 25/1 Swift Reply
33/1 Luminaries. ries.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f

Horses rated 0-99

O'GRADY'S HILL is topweight

But a very raw 5 year old mare
Just 3 previous career starts
She fails this powerful statistic

Go back to 2007
Handicap Hurdles
Non pattern races
Any distance
Any time of year
5 year old mares
Under 4 lifetime runs
Absent more than 53 days
Return a 0-172 record

O'GRADY'S HILL fails this

Don't like the rank outsiders

DARKEST DAY included in that

NASTASIYA ran 10 days ago
Beaten too far over 3 miles
Not strong on breeding stats

RICKETY GATE is a 9 year old
Very exposed with 114 days off
Won the race younger in 2022
Not as safe now as a 9 year old
BE THE DIFFERENCE an 8yo
Offers no sign of form or fitness 

IWA is hard to read
Long absence
First run for a new stable

MALANGEN is a 9yo

Big weight
Beaten 11 lengths 11 days ago
Can not match him to any winner
But there are place possibilities

Decided to split stake the race

Selection

£6.50 Win Bet THEIRSHEGOES 6/1

£3.50 Place Bet MALANGEN 7/4






FUTURE BETTING ANGLES     




Next Week

No firm plans just yet
No plans to take a day off
That is subject to change 
But will probably not bother


Newmarket 

It is Cesarewitch week
Will cover the big race
But not one I commit to



The main target race

Saturday - York 2.40
Coral Sprint Trophy

No entries at the moment  
Will cover it when there are




Football

Having a win double today

Opposing 2 of my favourite teams

Comes out around 13/8


Aston Villa - Draw no Bet 8/11

Chelsea - To win the game 8/15

Win Double








Test Cricket


Guest Article Today

Kindly sent by a member 

Pakistan v England

Three test series

Starts 6am tomorrow


England’s first Tour of The Winter kicks off in 
Multan in Pakistan at 6am on Monday morning
Only two years ago as Bazball was in its infancy 
England traveled to The Sub-Continent and beat 
Pakistan with a clean sweep 3-0 score line while 
notching up 500 in a day in Rawalpindi

However, this Touring side England have selected 
is very different in make up from the squad picked 
two years ago. This time the bowling attack is short
of Anderson, Robinson & Wood and the batting line 
up lacks Will Jacks and Liam Livingstone. Jacks 
also took 5 Wickets on his debut. 

Instead England  have picked Chris Woakes  (whose 
record overseas is very poor compared to how good 
he is in England), Matthew Potts(again more suited 
to English seaming wickets) and the pace battery is 
supplemented by Bryson Carse & Olly Stone. 

The biggest problem facing England is Ben Stokes’s 
fitness. He is unlikely to play in The 1st Test due to 
a hamstring injury and England will not only miss 
his savvy Captaincy but his all round ability with bat 
and ball. Jamie Smith had an excellent Summer but 
keeping in 40 degrees stifling heat in Pakistan will 
be a different kettle of fish and it will be interesting 
to see how he fares with both gloves & bat as tiredness 
can play a key. An extra worry for him is his Girlfriend 
is due to give birth during The 2nd Test of up coming 
New Zealand and this will surely be a worry for him as 
he embarks in his first major England Overseas Test Tour. 

As for Pakistan, England will face a very different side 
from two years ago and they will be stronger for sure 
as they were lacking Shaheen Shah Afridi who will be 
back bowling left arm swing thunderbolts and also 
buoyed by the appointment of Jason Gillespie who is 
a very shrewd Coach leading Yorkshire to two back to 
back County Championships. Also, Shan Masood has 
asked for quicker wickets rather than flat feather beds 
of two years and England at times struggled to read 
Abrar Ahmed.

In the last Test of The Summer at The Oval, England’s 
cricket bordered on recklessness and I think this will 
be a very tough assignment for England in Pakistan 
and particularly in this First Test in Multan without their 
talismanic Captain in Stokes. England are worth taking 
on (laying) at 2.28 and I’m sure further trading opportunities 
will arise in The Test also. It’s never dull when Pakistan 
are playing Test Cricket and I think this will be a fascinating 
three match Test Series.

Best Bets : Bet365

England Top Run Scorer : 

Ben Duckett 3/1

Harry Brook 3/1 

England Top Wicket Taker :

Shoahib Bashir 5/2

Pakistan Top Wicket Taker :

Abrar Ahmed 13/8

Shahheen Shah Afridi 2/1


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