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Favourite Bet(s)
 
Downpatrick 2.30 

MOULANE WEST 9/2

Each Way 


Cartmel 3.27

SHANTOU MOON 8/1 

Each Way







Final Deliberations    


Bank Holiday Monday

7 Previews

4 Cartmel 
1 Downpatrick
1 Chepstow 
1 Epsom 

National Hunt bias message

Cartmel has the most previews

Messages have been running cold
Suppose this is just a natural cycle 
But not been too impressive lately
Obviously time for a day off now

I'm switching to the national hunt
But non runners are causing issues 

Cartmel has heavy ground

It is one of my best tracks

Feel quite comfortable there

But some races have changed

Other races might do later on
 
Choosing two of the 7 races

But not staking any strong bet
Because I am running too cold
And non runners are hurting us







Preview Selections
 
Downpatrick 2.30 
Moulane West 9/2
Each Way

Cartmel 2.52 
Secret Secret 4/5-10/11 
Win Bet

Chepstow 3.00 
Enchanted Eye 2/1 
Win Bet

Cartmel 3.27 
Shantou Moon 8/1 
Each Way 
 
Cartmel 4.02 
Elogio 4/1 
Each Way

Epsom 5.00 
£4.50 Each Way Guiteau 8/1-9/1 
£1.00 Win Bet Giorgio M 10/1-11/1 
1/5 Odds 
1-2-3-4
 
Cartmel 5.15
£8.50 Win Bet Dr Sanderson 2/1 
£1.50 Win Bet Lermoos Legend 5/1-11/2








Yesterday's Summary     

We ended up with 6 selections
Had 1 winner and a place back
Sadly that was not really enough
Did not find a reversal of form
Suggested it was a 1 race day 
Khabib failed he ran quite badly
Thought he would trap far better
The draw in hindsight killed us
The saver bet a respectable 2nd
Let the well drawn winner slip by
As Khabib had a far fitter profile
But the draw balanced that out
And the end result looked poor






PROFILES & PREVIEWS 


Downpatrick 2.30

7/4 St Denis's Well, 11/4 Ragmans Corner
11/2 Sandyman, 6/1 Mr Sundancer, 8/1 Moulane West
12/1 Red Striker, 14/1 Nawraq 16/1 Thunder Rose
20/1 Init Together 33/1 Thebeautifulgame.

Handicap Hurdle 2m2f

Opposing the favourite

ST DENIS'S WELL is a 6yo

Back over hurdles today

Last years chase form
Makes him look thrown in here
But there are questions to answer

He had a long break
He's raced once in 147 days
Hammered in his comeback race

He has a target race in November
Laid out for the Troytown chase
This is one of his prep races
Might win off a low hurdle mark
But doubts about his well being

Do not like the lightweights
Against the following horses

RED STRIKER
INIT TOGETHER
THEBEAUTIFULGAME
THUNDER ROSE
NAWRAQ

Still several with chances

RAGMANS CORNER can win
Despite a 5 year old with 12 stone

SANDYMAN is a player

MR SUNDANCER has his chance

But going each way

MOULANE WEST a fit profile
Comes here with some momentum
This is an easier race than 5 days ago
When he ran a good 2nd at Sligo
Comes from a yard in strong form
The 2022 winner had a very recent run


Selection

MOULANE WEST 5/1

Each Way






Cartmel 2.52

6/4 Secret Secret, 4/1 Doyen For A Drink
5/1 Reagrove Lord, 11/2 Traditude Tara
12/1 Ange Endormi, 16/1 The Knot Is Tied
25/1 Bless The Moon 25/1 Raincloud.

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

SECRET SECRET an 8yo

Topweight and won last time

You can argue he is up in weight
Has to prove stamina over 3m 1f
But he is clearly the class horse 
And looks to have found a soft race

Several of these
Are coming up from 2m to 3m 1f

BLESS THE MOON
RAINCLOUD
TRADITUDE TARA

TRADITUDE TARA is a mare
Hardly safe from a 2m novice
Having just 3 previous hurdle runs

DOYEN FOR A DRINK a mare
Hs raced once in 329 days now
She has now changed stables
New yard has a poor record
Their National Hunt runners
Have a miserable 1-108 record 
That winner was 20 years ago

ANGE ENDORMI looks unsafe
Two bad runs in the last 2 years
Not proven well being after injury
THE KNOT IS TIED is beatable
Sire has never bred any winners
Over hurdles beyond 2m and 6f

REAGROVE LORD - Non runner


SECRET SECRET the topweight
Does look the more likely winner
Was going to make him a saver
But the main choice has pulled out


Selection

SECRET SECRET 4/5-10/11

Win Bet







Chepstow 3.00

7/4 Dalmally, 5/2 Enchanted Eye, 6/1 Louie The Legend
10/1 Vilaine Verlaine, 14/1 Cuban Star, 16/1 Banksman
20/1 Everyoneknowsadave, Obsidian Dream, Phoebus
33/1 Dapper Gee Gee, 33/1 Kings Square, 33/1 Spuddling
33/1 Talk Time, 66/1 Don't Get Caught, 66/1 Pacific Man
66/1 Silver Puca.

2yo Maiden 7f

DALMALLY has raced twice 
Ran two decent races so far
Could easily be the best horse
He is stuck out wide in stall 13

You can win drawn high here
But you are far better off lower

LOUIE THE LEGEND 2 runs
Stuck out wide drawn in stall 15

ENCHANTED EYE has 5 runs
Better draw more experience too
Brings 0-70 class nursery form
Not great form but was topweight
May have gone off too fast there
You can see him pinching a lead
And may have enough to hold on

Selection

ENCHANTED EYE 2/1

Win Bet






Cartmel 3.27

7/4 Skyjack Hijack, 11/4 Blended Stealth
6/1 Baby Evie, 7/1 Joie De Vivre, 12/1 Emily Wade
12/1 Shantou Moon, 16/1 Lady Harriett
25/1 Mistertommyshelby, 25/1You're Kidding Me

Handicap Hurdle 3m 1f

Division 2 of the earlier race

SKYJACK HIJACK is topweight

He's only had 4 career starts

Not many with topweight here

All 14 past winners

Had at least 9 career starts

Several of these look raw

BABY EVIE has just 3 runs
She is a mare coming from 2m
Stepping up over a mile in trip
LADY HARRIET has 8 runs
The above two horses are 5yo's
None that age have won this
YOUR KIDDING ME has 3 runs

Go back to 2006
Cartmel Handicap Hurdles
Run over 3m 1f and more
Horses with under 7 career runs
Have a 0-20 record in them
The following all fail this

BABY EVIE
LADY HARRIET
YOUR KIDDING ME
SKYJACK HIJACK

EMILY WADE is a mare
She is coming up 7f in distance
Comes from an unsafe sire
Who has no winners over this far
MISTERTOMMYSHELBY an 8yo
Does not have nearly enough positives
 
JOIE DE VIVRE is a 9yo mare
Likes it soft but is quite average
And you can question his profile

August and September
Handicap Hurdles
Any distance
Any class
Open to both sexes
Mares aged 9 or older
More than 20 hurdle runs
Absent more than 36 days
Return a 0-40 record in them 
JOIE DE VIVRE shares this profile

This is worth considering

Hurdlers sired by Mastercraftsman
Running over 2m 6f and further
Ground softer than good
Absent more than 22 days
Have a 0-35 record so far
JOIE DE VIVRE next to try

BLENDED SHEATH is a 7yo
Never won before in a 0-27 record
Plenty of places and well treated
Was going to make him a saver bet
But at the prices decided not to
 
SHANTOU MOON is a 7yo

Likes it soft running quite well
Classiest of those on shortlist
 
Selection

SHANTOU MOON 8/1

Each Way







Cartmel 4.02

3/1 Sky Luna, 13/2 Shantou Sunset
7/1 Point Gellibrand, 15/2 Elogio, 
10/1 The Churchill Lad,  12/1 The Bomber Liston
14/1 Tiger Jet, 25/1 Laxey.

Handicap Hurdle 2m 6f

CITY DERBY is in hot form

Comes into this W W W W 
 
Can he land a 5 timer today
Having won just 2 days ago ?

The market isn't sure
I have to see him as a positive
When you factor in other things 

Several have months off the track

LAXEY
THE BOMBER LISTON
TIGER JET

SKY LUNA is a mare
She has raced only twice before
Hard to prefer her over City Derby
Her sire is yet to get a hurdle winner
That won over as far as this before

SHANTOU SUNSET a 10yo mare
Has raced just once in 10 months
  
THE CHURCHILL LAD likewise
Sire yet to get a winner past 2m 4f
 
POINT GELLIBRAND is a 5yo
Not ideal a 5yo carrying 12 stone
Heavy ground and still quite raw

 
CITY DERBY 

Would have been the selection

He is now a non runner

ELOGIO is the replacement 

Selection
 
ELOGIO 4/1

Each Way








Epsom 5.00

11/2 Dream Of Mischief, 6/1 G'Daay, 13/2 Marlay Park
7/1 Purefoy, Redredrobin, 8/1 Giorgio M, 10/1 Guiteau
12/1 Extrication, Shot Of Love, 14/1 Little Boy Blue
14/1 Tanmawwy, 25/1 Capote's Dream, 25/1 Hodler
33/1 Arctician, 33/1 Trueman.

7f Handicap

Horses rated 0-80

Younger horses do best

Horses aged 3-4 tend to win

Horses aged 5 or more
Absent more than 1 day
Have a 1-57 record in this
Opposing the older horses

MARLAY PARK included
Who has quite a tough draw
EXTRICATION off 58 days
REDREDROBIN a 7yo mare
Comes here from a class 6
G'DAAY isn't the right age
The 7f here on softer ground
May well stretch his stamina
SHOT OF LOVE can go well
But never won in this class
Never off his current ratings
Never been on softer ground 
 
PUREFOY is 3 years olds
Could win easily off his rating
But is badly drawn in stall 14
Looked at the draw bias here
Some won back in 2001-2002

Go back to 2003
Epsom 7f handicaps
Any class of race
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Drawn 12 or higher
Have a 0-44 record
PUREFOY next to try

Shorlist

DREAM OF MISCHIEF a 4yo
Looks a positive ut is topweight
 
GUITEAU is right type
Proven track form on his side

GIORGIO M is the right type
He looks an improving horse
Who has some good excuses
Won twice this year in 6 races
Good placed effort at Newmarket
When he was 5th at Beverley
He reared up as the stalls opened
Stall 1 hurt him at Musselburgh
But never raced on the ground 

Lots can go wrong over 7f here
But the same can be said for all

Selection

£4.50 Each Way GUITEAU 8/1-9/1

£1.00 Win Bet GIORGIO M10/1-11/1

1/5 Odds

1-2-3-4







Cartmel 5.15

5/2 Dr Sanderson, 11/4 Sean Og
9/2 Coqolino, 5/1 Lermoos Legend
8/1 Jelski,  16/1 The Flier Begley
 
Handicap Chase 2m 5f

Horses rated 0-119

Doubts about a few of these

THE FLIER BEGLEY topweight
He is coming back to fences here
Jus downgraded stable as well
Raced just once in 112 days now

JELSKI ran 2 days ago
Beaten 18 lengths is a concern

COQOLINO is not running well
Comes here as the stable number 2

LERMOOS LEGEND has a chance
Very exposed and going up 4 furlongs
But fit and well he could be the one
He is suggested as the saver bet


SEAN OG is a 6 year old
Has a chance no strong objections
But has no form on soft ground

DR SANDERSON

Fit and running well enough

Been very busy in recent weeks

If that does not count against him

Feel he has enough to win this

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet DR SANDERSON 2/1

£1.50 Win Bet LERMOOS LEGEND 5/1-11/2

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